Bulls Offseason Thread

[Tyrant]

Basketball Reference did some statistical guessing about Wade, Bosh and Lebron in Miami. Depending on the model, they're predicting anything from 60-70 wins, even if the Heat's roster is filled out by NBDL level players.

[Keener98]

I mean for fucks sake Drew Gooden just signed a deal worth 7 [expletive] million a year and that's just 1 example of the supposed "role players".

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I could be wrong, but I bet you guys are shocked at how good some awful role players can look when Wade and James are on the floor at the same time.

[Tyrant]

That BR blog also said the following...

 

If they play like they did last year, the Heat’s differential would be a monstrous, Redeem Team-esque +21.2, which I can’t even give a wins estimate for because it breaks the linear equation that relates efficiency differential to winning % (it would have them winning more than 100% of their games). No team has ever had that kind of performance in the history if the NBA, meaning there is a pretty decent chance they’d obliterate the ‘96 Bulls’ record for most wins in a season.

[Sammy Sofa]

Basketball Reference did some statistical guessing about Wade, Bosh and Lebron in Miami. Depending on the model, they're predicting anything from 60-70 wins, even if the Heat's roster is filled out by NBDL level players.

 

I think there are some very astute comments with that that point out how the analysis seems to be working without the idea that any of the three would be playing at a level of "diminished returns." It seems to be projecting their numbers from when they've been the alpha dogs of their teams with not enough adjustment.

 

Again, I'm not downplaying the amazing talent these guys would still have playing together, but a lot of the projections out there seem to be operating under the assumption that all three will be playing as they did in the past when they were THE guys on the team and that the roles will just naturally fall into place. I don't think that's necessarily a given. Yes, there's likely way, way too much talent for it to actually sidetrack the team, but it'll be interesting to see how it actually plays out.

Edited July 8, 2010 by Sammy Sofa

[Sammy Sofa]

I could be wrong, but I bet you guys are shocked at how good some awful role players can look when Wade and James are on the floor at the same time.

 

Holy crap, you gotta hang around here more often with this type of amazing insight.

[Tracer Bullet]

That BR blog also said the following...

 

If they play like they did last year, the Heat’s differential would be a monstrous, Redeem Team-esque +21.2, which I can’t even give a wins estimate for because it breaks the linear equation that relates efficiency differential to winning % (it would have them winning more than 100% of their games). No team has ever had that kind of performance in the history if the NBA, meaning there is a pretty decent chance they’d obliterate the ‘96 Bulls’ record for most wins in a season.

 

you'd essentially have to win every game to "obliterate" the record for wins in a season.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I could be wrong, but I bet you guys are shocked at how good some awful role players can look when Wade and James are on the floor at the same time.

 

Holy crap, you gotta hang around here more often with this type of amazing insight.

 

It seems so obvious, but I keep reading here and elsewhere how people aren't sure if Miami will have the depth to win, or that there might be problems with James and Wade co-existing.

 

It's silly. Basketball at this level has always been about who has the most and best stars. Miami will probably have two of the best three players in the league. That's all you need. They could give me 48 minutes a game at PG and still win 50+ games.

Edited July 8, 2010 by Hairyducked Idiot

[NYCubsFan38]

Exactly, I don't understand why everyone thinks Miami needs studs to back them up. Sure you need bench and role players but you DON'T need studs when you have 3 superstars on the same team.

 

This what you're not getting; we're not talking about "studs." Capable role players and bench players aren't cheap. No, they don't need to have guys like that taking up every spot in the lineup, but they need at least a few and that's going to cost them a lot of money.

 

No see, I do get that. I also named a couple of them and it's also possible that Pat has people waiting in the wings. Dwyane is also very good at recruiting people, and tampering, so it's not completely out of the realm of possibility to get people cheap just to play here. I'm not saying it's a forgone conclusion, but it could happen.

 

Sure, anything COULD happen, but it's just so ridiculous unlikely that it's really not worth discussing. You just don't see it happening. This is a business and these players are here make money. Just because you named names doesn't mean that any of them would actually play for around the minimum. Even guys like that expect significantly more.

 

Absolutely and I understand your point. All I'm saying is that even great players reach a point when the oppurtunity to win a championship is staring them in the face and while they're sitting on their millions maybe they do take that paycut to get it as it will be the only time in their careers. I'm not arguing that money rules all, but this is a huge chance for a number of players to make a name for themselves or get a title. They have been playing this game since they were children. Winning has to mean SOMETHING to them.

[Sammy Sofa]

I could be wrong, but I bet you guys are shocked at how good some awful role players can look when Wade and James are on the floor at the same time.

 

Holy crap, you gotta hang around here more often with this type of amazing insight.

 

It seems so obvious, but I keep reading here and elsewhere how people aren't sure if Miami will have the depth to win, or that there might be problems with James and Wade co-existing.

 

It's silly. Basketball at this level has always been about who has the most and best stars. Miami will probably have two of the best three players in the league. That's all you need. They could give me 48 minutes a game at PG and still win 50+ games.

 

But this isn't about just winning 50+ games, or 60+ games.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

But this isn't about just winning 50+ games, or 60+ games.

 

Put me down for "Wade/Bosh/James and 9 scrubs win the NBA title."

[Guest]

Yeah, no one is saying "they have no depth, they'll be the 5 seed!". What people are saying is "they have like 3.5 players on the roster, they aren't going to burn the NBA to the ground".

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yeah, no one is saying "they have no depth, they'll be the 5 seed!". What people are saying is "they have like 3.5 players on the roster, they aren't going to burn the NBA to the ground".

 

We'll find out, I guess, and you guys probably know basketball better than me. But I think they will.

[ConstableRabbit]

ESPN article on Boozer teaching out to LBJ mysteriously updated.

 

It used to have a Boozer quote saying LeBron responded to his text by saying he was weighing "two different teams." Now it says "a few different teams."

 

Was he misquoted, or was ESPN trying to cover for its show

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/nba/news/story?id=5363820

[Soul]

I have heard that both Wade & Bosh will take significantly less if Lebron comes, so I guess we'll see how it shakes out.

[Sammy Sofa]

Absolutely and I understand your point. All I'm saying is that even great players reach a point when the oppurtunity to win a championship is staring them in the face and while they're sitting on their millions maybe they do take that paycut to get it as it will be the only time in their careers. I'm not arguing that money rules all, but this is a huge chance for a number of players to make a name for themselves or get a title. They have been playing this game since they were children. Winning has to mean SOMETHING to them.

 

Yes and no. Professional athletes are pretty notorious for mismanaging their money, plus it's not like this team is a slam dunk to win it all. There's always going to be competitive teams out there willing to pay, and there's always the incentive to play for non-competitive teams offering a LOT of money.

[SpongeWorthy]

Every team in the league is gonna kill themselves to win when they play Miami. I think that Bulls team in 96 kinda snuck up on people at first because of the way the previous season ended and no one was certain how MJ would come back or Rodman would fit in.

 

If Lebron goes to Miami the country will be built up into a frenzy about how to beat them and how great beating them would be. No way I see them besting 72-10.

[UMFan83]

ESPN article on Boozer teaching out to LBJ mysteriously updated.

 

It used to have a Boozer quote saying LeBron responded to his text by saying he was weighing "two different teams." Now it says "a few different teams."

 

Was he misquoted, or was ESPN trying to cover for its show

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/nba/news/story?id=5363820

 

I just refuted this on RealGM, but he definitely said "a few". I heard the audio snipped (it was posted in the current RealGM LeBron thread), and it does sound almost like he says "two". In fact it took me 3-4 listens before I was certain that he said "a few", but I'm quite certain now.

[ConstableRabbit]

ESPN article on Boozer teaching out to LBJ mysteriously updated.

 

It used to have a Boozer quote saying LeBron responded to his text by saying he was weighing "two different teams." Now it says "a few different teams."

 

Was he misquoted, or was ESPN trying to cover for its show

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/nba/news/story?id=5363820

 

I just refuted this on RealGM, but he definitely said "a few". I heard the audio snipped (it was posted in the current RealGM LeBron thread), and it does sound almost like he says "two". In fact it took me 3-4 listens before I was certain that he said "a few", but I'm quite certain now.

Haha okay -- my conspiracy theory meter is at an all-time high. Good to hear it was just a misquote.

 

EDIT: Just got a chance to hear the audio clip (thanks RealGM) -- I think you're right. Definitely sounds like "a few"

Edited July 8, 2010 by ConstableRabbit

[SpongeWorthy]

I was with the Simmons column until he actually suggested that a Miami super team wouldn't win 50 games. Come on now.

 

That line about looking up in the rafters and being inspired by Rony Seiklay's jersey was great though.

[RedFlash]

Yes, Beasley would have to be gone. There are teams that won't mind having the #2 pick with a one year $5 mil deal gone at the end of the season.

 

There are? The Heat have been trying to trade Beasley for over a year and found very little interest. Hell, Toronto has rejected all packages with Miami that included Michael Beasley. He might get trade but it won't be this offseason.

[Old Style]

Will anyone be surprised if there is widespread rioting/looting in Cleveland tonight after The Decision™?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Will anyone be surprised if there is widespread rioting/looting in Cleveland tonight after The Decision™?

No, but it likely won't be LeBron-related.

[SouthSideRyan]

Detroit residents take to the street in anger at Lebron's decision!

[Sammy Sofa]

There has to be something to loot for there to be widespread looting.