2010 Media Predictions Day

[Sammy Sofa]

I don't understand any picks that have the Brewers winning the division like they've somehow improved their team in any kind of meaningful way. Yes, the NL Central sucks, and just a key injury or regression/slump on any of the contending teams can sink them, but come on. The Brewers fell last year because their team simply wasn't very good outside of a very small group of players, and it's not like they really did anything to significantly change that.

 

But aren't their best players still in the prime or just entering, justifying hope in improvement? It's a better situation than hoping Soriano and Fontenot bounce back (Soto being the difference of course). It seems like it wouldn't be a stretch to imagine them a few games better this year, and everybody else mediocre enough to finish behind them. It seems a few teams have a chance of winning it with 86 wins.

 

Look, they've got Prince and Braun and Gallardo and nobody is going to discount that that core is going to produce or be surprised if they just get better due to their ages, but it seemed like their biggest problem last year was their pitching, and what has been significantly improved in regards to that? Randy Wolf?

 

And I don't understand even bringing up Fontenot. Who is acting like him bouncing back is some critical aspect of the Cubs' success in 2010? There's a laundry list of things that need to go right before you get to him.

 

I'm not saying the Brewers can't win the division, but I don't really place any stock in a pick that has them winning it because their team was improved as opposed to them winning because the Cards and Cubs stumble.

[jersey cubs fan]

Look, they've got Prince and Braun and Gallardo and nobody is going to discount that that core is going to produce or be surprised if they just get better due to their ages, but it seemed like their biggest problem last year was their pitching, and what has been significantly improved in regards to that? Randy Wolf?

 

And I don't understand even bringing up Fontenot. Who is acting like him bouncing back is some critical aspect of the Cubs' success in 2010? There's a laundry list of things that need to go right before you get to him.

 

I'm not picking them to win, just don't see why it would be so crazy for somebody else to pick them. I was just pointing out that the Cubs don't have any stud pre-prime players to rely on, their hopes lie in older and/or more flawed players. Their best are old dudes who could easily decline.

[rawaction]

I don't understand any picks that have the Brewers winning the division like they've somehow improved their team in any kind of meaningful way. Yes, the NL Central sucks, and just a key injury or regression/slump on any of the contending teams can sink them, but come on. The Brewers fell last year because their team simply wasn't very good outside of a very small group of players, and it's not like they really did anything to significantly change that.

 

Gallardo should be even better, and throw over 200 innings. Wolf looks like he is going to have a strong season. Escobar will be an improvement over Hardy. Weeks could break out any day now. Getting Kendall, Counsell, and Bill Hall out of the lineup so much should help as well as Suppan out of the rotation. Going from Cameron to Gomez will hurt though.

[UMFan83]

Ravech picked the Brewers to win the Central, and Aaron Boone picked the Reds. I also would enjoy their explanations. If the Cards falter this season with injuries, inconsistency, or McGwire Super-Soakering the crowd with gallons of HGH, fine. But Boone is going with that, and also throwing the Cubs down to 5th? Is it all a ploy so he can say "Well, I knew I was going for the dark horse but I super-duper like Jay Bruce!"

 

I don't see why it's that outrageous to pick the Reds to win the Central with all their young talent. Imagine if Cueto pitches all year like he's shown flashes, Volquez is healthy and picks up where he left off in 08, Chapman comes up and pitches well, Jay Bruce plays like a he has in every other level of baseball he's been in, Votto doesn't have any anxiety disorders, Rolen provides solid defense and slightly revitalized hitting.

 

That's a lot of ifs, but I don't think any of those are really outrageous. You also have to accept the premise that people get bored of picking the Cardinals to win and want to go out on a limb for their prediction. I would say that the Reds are just about as likely as the Cubs to win the division IMO.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm not picking them to win, just don't see why it would be so crazy for somebody else to pick them. I was just pointing out that the Cubs don't have any stud pre-prime players to rely on, their hopes lie in older and/or more flawed players. Their best are old dudes who could easily decline.

 

I'm saying it's crazy if people are picking them because they actually got better as opposed to just picking up some wins due to improving young players or bounce-backs or the like. They need things to break their way just like the Cubs do (though, yes, many of the specific circumstances are different). I just don't think picking them is legit unless it's also banking on some key slumps/injuries/etc. hitting the Cardinals.

[soapy]

i could easily see the cubs finishing 4th, but i have a hard time believing they might be worse than the astros or pirates.

[Exile on Waveland]

Is Volquez even a lock to pitch this year? He had surgery in August, I believe. He may come back but it likely won't be until pretty late in the year. I'm not sure counting on him for much of anything is reasonable.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm not picking them to win, just don't see why it would be so crazy for somebody else to pick them. I was just pointing out that the Cubs don't have any stud pre-prime players to rely on, their hopes lie in older and/or more flawed players. Their best are old dudes who could easily decline.

 

I'm saying it's crazy if people are picking them because they actually got better as opposed to just picking up some wins due to improving young players or bounce-backs or the like. They need things to break their way just like the Cubs do (though, yes, many of the specific circumstances are different). I just don't think picking them is legit unless it's also banking on some key slumps/injuries/etc. hitting the Cardinals.

 

You don't think picking them is legit?

[Sammy Sofa]

Depends on the context, as I've explained a couple times now.

[Guest]

Not knowing what teams will have available to improve their teams at the deadline or what teams actually do to improve their team at the deadline makes it rather difficult to make an honest assessment of where teams will finish. All you can do is predict based on the make up of the team on opening day. With that in mind, any one of the 4 teams already mentioned have a shot at winning the division. The Cubs and Cardinals probably have the highest likelihood, followed by Milwaukee and Cincinnati.

 

What might propel Cincy past Milwaukee and Chicago is a change of managers. A slow start will allow Jocketty to get one of "his" guys in there and maybe get this youth infusion to blend together better. On paper, I think I like the talent level of Cincy over every other team, but I won't pick them over St. Louis to win the division. Probably due to the Dusty factor more than anything.

 

St. Louis

Cincy

Chicago

Milwaukee

Pittsburgh

Houston

[Old Style]

Fifth? That has to be a joke, right? I am thinking 2nd, but 1st or 3rd wouldn't necessarily surprise me.

[Backtobanks]

As I've posted before, the "experts" don't know any more than we do. When they make predictions, it's either the favorites so they can be right or it's something outlandish so they can have some controversy. Anybody that picks the Cubs 5th is just stirring up controversy. I'm a diehard Cubs fan, but it's obvious that at this point (on paper) the Cards are the best team with the Cubs 2nd.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't see why it's that outrageous to pick the Reds to win the Central with all their young talent. Imagine if Cueto pitches all year like he's shown flashes, Volquez is healthy and picks up where he left off in 08, Chapman comes up and pitches well, Jay Bruce plays like a he has in every other level of baseball he's been in, Votto doesn't have any anxiety disorders, Rolen provides solid defense and slightly revitalized hitting.

 

That's a lot of ifs, but I don't think any of those are really outrageous. You also have to accept the premise that people get bored of picking the Cardinals to win and want to go out on a limb for their prediction. I would say that the Reds are just about as likely as the Cubs to win the division IMO.

 

I think a lot of those are outrageous. Well, mostly the ones involving pitching. Especially Chapman.

[cubsfan26]

These predictions are really funny, but I like being in this spot. Come June these clowns will be talking about how good the Cubs are, after nobody picked them. It's just funny how a one mediocre season that included tons of injuries and down seasons by good players. Caused everybody to jump off the bandwagon. Now we comeback with probably a better team then we had going into 09, and people are picking us to finsh 3rd-5th? Yet the same core players are here, with some good years left in them, and probably more depth. I will be disappointd if we don't win the division this year, and shocked if we don't finsh at least in second place. I don't see how we can be any worse then we were last year at 83 wins. The pitching will continue to be strong, and we will improve alot offensivly.

 

Quite a bit went very right as well.

 

Ehh maybe Lee having a nice rebound year, and finding Wells. But that still doesn't make up for Ramirez missing half the season. Bradley being a huge bust(on and off the field), four of five starters all spending time on the DL. Soriano/Soto being banged up and bad and then Fontenot struggling after a good 08. There's also that Aaron Miles guy who went from being a 290s-300s hitter the last two seasons, to being by far the worst player in the major leagues last season. So the things that went right don't come close to the things that went wrong, and we still finshed 5 games above 500. The other things you might consider probably even out.

[17 Seconds]

Bradley being a huge bust(on and off the field)

 

haha

[ELCABALLO45]

The Brewers won 80 games last year despite having the worst starting pitching staff in baseball last year.

 

Looper, and Suppan won't be making 30 starts this year for Milwaukee and Gallardo should take another step foward.

 

2010 Gallardo > 2009 Gallardo

2010 Wolf >>>> 2009 Looper

2010 Davis >>>>>>> 2010 Suppan

 

Add in the fact that Bush should be more toward his career ERA of 4.69 compared to 6.38 last year. The offense should be fine, only real downgrade will probably be CF with Gomez. While we should be upgrading in Right, Catcher and Short. Does this mean I think we will win the central? No, I actually have the Brewers picked 3rd. But for the people picking the Brewers, its not the craziest pick ever.

Edited April 2, 2010 by ELCABALLO45

[cubsfan26]

2010 Gallardo > 2009 Gallardo

2010 Wolf >>>> 2009 Looper

2009 Davis >>>>>>> 2010 Suppan

 

Wolf being that much better then Looper might be wishful thinking. I guess it depends on his health and what Randy Wolf shows up. Lets not forget that 04-08 Wolf was either mediocre or hurt most of the time. I do agree with you on Davis/Suppan though. I think signing Davis to a 1 year, 5m deal was much better then Wolf deal.

[Guest]

Thank goodness the track record for 35 year olds who have mediocre K and HR rates and are no stranger to crummy seasons is really strong.

[Guest]

I like Gallardo and Wolf has his moments, but Bush, Suppan, Looper and Davis seem rather interchangeable to me. Interchangeable meaning that one isn't really any better than the other and none stand out.

[Guest]

Thank goodness the track record for 35 year olds who have mediocre K and HR rates and are no stranger to crummy seasons is really strong.

 

Also, they should have no problem getting a 14 WAR out of Gomez, Weeks, Counsell, and McGehee like they did from those spots last year.

[Backtobanks]

As I've posted before, the "experts" don't know any more than we do. When they make predictions, it's either the favorites so they can be right or it's something outlandish so they can have some controversy. Anybody that picks the Cubs 5th is just stirring up controversy. I'm a diehard Cubs fan, but it's obvious that at this point (on paper) the Cards are the best team with the Cubs 2nd.

 

As I stated above, the "experts" don't know squat. Ken Rosenthal (Foxsports) has the White Sox winning the World Series.

[A New Era]

I have the Cubs as anywhere from 1st to 3rd. I don't think they'll rank lower than 3rd, by the end of the season. I also think they won't rank above 1st.

[NCCubFan]

I have the Cubs as anywhere from 1st to 3rd. I don't think they'll rank lower than 3rd, by the end of the season. I also think they won't rank above 1st.

Talk about going out on a limb. :D

[inari]

As I've posted before, the "experts" don't know any more than we do. When they make predictions, it's either the favorites so they can be right or it's something outlandish so they can have some controversy. Anybody that picks the Cubs 5th is just stirring up controversy. I'm a diehard Cubs fan, but it's obvious that at this point (on paper) the Cards are the best team with the Cubs 2nd.

 

As I stated above, the "experts" don't know squat. Ken Rosenthal (Foxsports) has the White Sox winning the World Series.

 

What's so outrageous about that?

[hawkcub]

As I've posted before, the "experts" don't know any more than we do. When they make predictions, it's either the favorites so they can be right or it's something outlandish so they can have some controversy. Anybody that picks the Cubs 5th is just stirring up controversy. I'm a diehard Cubs fan, but it's obvious that at this point (on paper) the Cards are the best team with the Cubs 2nd.

 

As I stated above, the "experts" don't know squat. Ken Rosenthal (Foxsports) has the White Sox winning the World Series.

 

Maybe you should have read the whole article. He basically made fun of the whole process and said exactly what you said that they don't know squat and it's silly to do this exercise every year. But since he has to do it he chooses the White Sox.