2010 Media Predictions Day

[Dr. Cub]

The Cubs will win 85 games this year, max, and that's if a lot of things go right. I just don't see more than that. We're not as good as last year. Soto and Soriano need to rebound, Lee needs to keep his power stroke, Aram needs to stay healthy, Lilly needs to be effective when he comes back, the bullpen needs to not implode, and Marmol needs to be the Marmol we all know he can be.

 

Maybe if we're in first at the deadline and we make a huge trade for a superstar we'll eclipse that mark, but I don't see more than 85 with the way the roster sits at the moment.

 

 

If he picked them to win the AL Central, that's not outrageous. If he picked them to win the WS, it is outrageous.

 

I don't see why. The postseason is pretty much a crapshoot, and the White Sox have the makings of an outstanding rotation that could carry them through a few postseason rounds (or what appears to be a weak offense could get hot for a few weeks).

 

And I like their chances of winning the AL Central, though a case can be made for the Twins and Tigers.

 

That said, if I bothered to predict pennant and WS winners, I admit that I'd pick at least a couple of teams (the Yankees, the Red Sox, maybe the Angels) over the White Sox.

 

 

I put these two quoted posts together to point out how hard we are on the Cubs and not other teams. Erik posted that we need a whole bunch of stuff to go right to get to 85 wins, yet the White Sox are counting on Andruw Jones, Mark Kotsay, Mark Teahen, Juan Pierre, Alexi Ramirez, and Alex Rios to produce as everyday regulars and Carlos Quentin to stay healthy and have a rebound year. The Sox have the starting rotation, but their lineup stinks.

 

 

 

Just to clarify, I'm a Cardinals fan. The White Sox do have what appears to be a weak offense (I haven't studied them enough to know how their defense projects), but they're also in a very weak division (85 wins might take the division). Not that the NL Central is all that strong, but I think it's stronger than the AL Central.

 

The following are the CHONE WAR and PA projections for STL's and CHI's starting 8 with last year's WAR in parentheses:

 

Molina: 3.5 WAR, 490 PA (3.4 WAR)

Soto: 3.2 WAR, 429 PA (1.2 WAR)

 

Pujols: 7.2 WAR, 634 PA (8.5 WAR)

Lee: 3.0 WAR, 573 PA (5.3 WAR)

 

Schumaker 1.6 WAR, 502 PA (1.3 WAR)

Fontenot 1.3 WAR, 386 PA (0.3 WAR)

 

Freese 1.8 WAR, 388 PA (0.2 WAR--34 PA)

Ramirez 3.4 WAR, 499 PA (2.5 WAR)

 

Ryan 2.7 WAR, 412 PA (3.1 WAR)

Theriot 2.2 WAR, 586 PA (2.8 WAR)

 

Holliday 4.9 WAR, 646 PA (5.7 WAR)

Soriano 1.8 WAR, 539 PA (-0.7 WAR)

 

Rasmus 3.4 WAR, 477 PA (2.2 WAR)

Byrd 2.6 WAR, 513 PA (2.4 WAR)

 

Ludwick 2.0 WAR, 511 PA (1.9 WAR)

Fukudome 2.3 WAR, 546 PA (2.3 WAR)

 

That's about a 7-win advantage for the Cardinals. Of course, that doesn't include benches or pitching staffs. And, yes, it's merely a projection--both the playing time and value could prove to be way off the mark.

 

I would love to see how those projections compare with the actual WAR numbers.

[TruffleShuffle]

i'm gonna go out on a limb and say that the cardinals' middle infield did not reach their projected WAR values.