2010 Media Predictions Day

[Backtobanks]

As I've posted before, the "experts" don't know any more than we do. When they make predictions, it's either the favorites so they can be right or it's something outlandish so they can have some controversy. Anybody that picks the Cubs 5th is just stirring up controversy. I'm a diehard Cubs fan, but it's obvious that at this point (on paper) the Cards are the best team with the Cubs 2nd.

 

As I stated above, the "experts" don't know squat. Ken Rosenthal (Foxsports) has the White Sox winning the World Series.

 

Maybe you should have read the whole article. He basically made fun of the whole process and said exactly what you said that they don't know squat and it's silly to do this exercise every year. But since he has to do it he chooses the White Sox.

 

 

I did read the whole article and if someone wanted to be silly he should have picked the Padres or Pirates.

[Backtobanks]

As I've posted before, the "experts" don't know any more than we do. When they make predictions, it's either the favorites so they can be right or it's something outlandish so they can have some controversy. Anybody that picks the Cubs 5th is just stirring up controversy. I'm a diehard Cubs fan, but it's obvious that at this point (on paper) the Cards are the best team with the Cubs 2nd.

 

As I stated above, the "experts" don't know squat. Ken Rosenthal (Foxsports) has the White Sox winning the World Series.

 

What's so outrageous about that?

 

If he picked them to win the AL Central, that's not outrageous. If he picked them to win the WS, it is outrageous.

[erik316wttn]

The Cubs will win 85 games this year, max, and that's if a lot of things go right. I just don't see more than that. We're not as good as last year. Soto and Soriano need to rebound, Lee needs to keep his power stroke, Aram needs to stay healthy, Lilly needs to be effective when he comes back, the bullpen needs to not implode, and Marmol needs to be the Marmol we all know he can be.

 

Maybe if we're in first at the deadline and we make a huge trade for a superstar we'll eclipse that mark, but I don't see more than 85 with the way the roster sits at the moment.

[Eephus Speed]

If he picked them to win the AL Central, that's not outrageous. If he picked them to win the WS, it is outrageous.

 

I don't see why. The postseason is pretty much a crapshoot, and the White Sox have the makings of an outstanding rotation that could carry them through a few postseason rounds (or what appears to be a weak offense could get hot for a few weeks).

 

And I like their chances of winning the AL Central, though a case can be made for the Twins and Tigers.

 

That said, if I bothered to predict pennant and WS winners, I admit that I'd pick at least a couple of teams (the Yankees, the Red Sox, maybe the Angels) over the White Sox.

[Backtobanks]

The Cubs will win 85 games this year, max, and that's if a lot of things go right. I just don't see more than that. We're not as good as last year. Soto and Soriano need to rebound, Lee needs to keep his power stroke, Aram needs to stay healthy, Lilly needs to be effective when he comes back, the bullpen needs to not implode, and Marmol needs to be the Marmol we all know he can be.

 

Maybe if we're in first at the deadline and we make a huge trade for a superstar we'll eclipse that mark, but I don't see more than 85 with the way the roster sits at the moment.

 

 

If he picked them to win the AL Central, that's not outrageous. If he picked them to win the WS, it is outrageous.

 

I don't see why. The postseason is pretty much a crapshoot, and the White Sox have the makings of an outstanding rotation that could carry them through a few postseason rounds (or what appears to be a weak offense could get hot for a few weeks).

 

And I like their chances of winning the AL Central, though a case can be made for the Twins and Tigers.

 

That said, if I bothered to predict pennant and WS winners, I admit that I'd pick at least a couple of teams (the Yankees, the Red Sox, maybe the Angels) over the White Sox.

 

 

I put these two quoted posts together to point out how hard we are on the Cubs and not other teams. Erik posted that we need a whole bunch of stuff to go right to get to 85 wins, yet the White Sox are counting on Andruw Jones, Mark Kotsay, Mark Teahen, Juan Pierre, Alexi Ramirez, and Alex Rios to produce as everyday regulars and Carlos Quentin to stay healthy and have a rebound year. The Sox have the starting rotation, but their lineup stinks.

[RedFlash]

The Cards have the best 1-2 punch, pitching wise. The Cards and Brewers have the best 1-2 run producers (depending on which tandem you like better). The Cubs, IMO, have a better collection of talent 1-25 then either St. Louis and Milwaukee, and therefore theoritically they should be better then both the Cards and the Brewers. But with said talent, the Cubs also have more questions then either St. Louis or Milwaukee. So I could see any of Milwaukee/Chicago/St. Louis winning the division.

 

Astros suck, no question. Pirates are rebuilding......again. And the Reds are truly the wild card of the division. Just enough talent to be thorn in Mil/ChC/St. Louis sides but not enough to win the division. But of course this is a team lead by Dusty Baker and he could lead teams to the division championships, or lead the league in pitcher abuse points. I simply don't tust Baker with Volzquez/Cuerto and Chapman.

[TruffleShuffle]

The Cubs, IMO, have a better collection of talent 1-25 then either St. Louis and Milwaukee, and therefore theoritically they should be better then both the Cards and the Brewers.

 

 

if the cards or brewers have a better 1-5 than the cubs, it doesn't really matter that much that the worst/least important players on the cubs are better than the scrubs on the other two teams.

[Eephus Speed]

The Cubs will win 85 games this year, max, and that's if a lot of things go right. I just don't see more than that. We're not as good as last year. Soto and Soriano need to rebound, Lee needs to keep his power stroke, Aram needs to stay healthy, Lilly needs to be effective when he comes back, the bullpen needs to not implode, and Marmol needs to be the Marmol we all know he can be.

 

Maybe if we're in first at the deadline and we make a huge trade for a superstar we'll eclipse that mark, but I don't see more than 85 with the way the roster sits at the moment.

 

 

If he picked them to win the AL Central, that's not outrageous. If he picked them to win the WS, it is outrageous.

 

I don't see why. The postseason is pretty much a crapshoot, and the White Sox have the makings of an outstanding rotation that could carry them through a few postseason rounds (or what appears to be a weak offense could get hot for a few weeks).

 

And I like their chances of winning the AL Central, though a case can be made for the Twins and Tigers.

 

That said, if I bothered to predict pennant and WS winners, I admit that I'd pick at least a couple of teams (the Yankees, the Red Sox, maybe the Angels) over the White Sox.

 

 

I put these two quoted posts together to point out how hard we are on the Cubs and not other teams. Erik posted that we need a whole bunch of stuff to go right to get to 85 wins, yet the White Sox are counting on Andruw Jones, Mark Kotsay, Mark Teahen, Juan Pierre, Alexi Ramirez, and Alex Rios to produce as everyday regulars and Carlos Quentin to stay healthy and have a rebound year. The Sox have the starting rotation, but their lineup stinks.

 

Just to clarify, I'm a Cardinals fan. The White Sox do have what appears to be a weak offense (I haven't studied them enough to know how their defense projects), but they're also in a very weak division (85 wins might take the division). Not that the NL Central is all that strong, but I think it's stronger than the AL Central.

 

The following are the CHONE WAR and PA projections for STL's and CHI's starting 8 with last year's WAR in parentheses:

 

Molina: 3.5 WAR, 490 PA (3.4 WAR)

Soto: 3.2 WAR, 429 PA (1.2 WAR)

 

Pujols: 7.2 WAR, 634 PA (8.5 WAR)

Lee: 3.0 WAR, 573 PA (5.3 WAR)

 

Schumaker 1.6 WAR, 502 PA (1.3 WAR)

Fontenot 1.3 WAR, 386 PA (0.3 WAR)

 

Freese 1.8 WAR, 388 PA (0.2 WAR--34 PA)

Ramirez 3.4 WAR, 499 PA (2.5 WAR)

 

Ryan 2.7 WAR, 412 PA (3.1 WAR)

Theriot 2.2 WAR, 586 PA (2.8 WAR)

 

Holliday 4.9 WAR, 646 PA (5.7 WAR)

Soriano 1.8 WAR, 539 PA (-0.7 WAR)

 

Rasmus 3.4 WAR, 477 PA (2.2 WAR)

Byrd 2.6 WAR, 513 PA (2.4 WAR)

 

Ludwick 2.0 WAR, 511 PA (1.9 WAR)

Fukudome 2.3 WAR, 546 PA (2.3 WAR)

 

That's about a 7-win advantage for the Cardinals. Of course, that doesn't include benches or pitching staffs. And, yes, it's merely a projection--both the playing time and value could prove to be way off the mark.

[inari]

As I've posted before, the "experts" don't know any more than we do. When they make predictions, it's either the favorites so they can be right or it's something outlandish so they can have some controversy. Anybody that picks the Cubs 5th is just stirring up controversy. I'm a diehard Cubs fan, but it's obvious that at this point (on paper) the Cards are the best team with the Cubs 2nd.

 

As I stated above, the "experts" don't know squat. Ken Rosenthal (Foxsports) has the White Sox winning the World Series.

 

What's so outrageous about that?

 

If he picked them to win the AL Central, that's not outrageous. If he picked them to win the WS, it is outrageous.

 

 

Restating it doesn't really answer why it's outrageous.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Assuming a repeat of 2009, with Aramis missing more than half the season and Soriano and Soto both sucking, then yes, I could see the Cubs falling to 4th, maybe 5th. If not, and Aramis is healthy, and we get strong rebounds from Soriano or Soto, I think we'll be contending. Sure, the Cards looks nice on paper, but they have a lot of X factors as well. Sure, Pujols/Holliday, if not the best is one of the top 3 3-4s in the league, but beyod that, there are a lot of ?s. What to expect from Ludwick. What to expect from Rasums. Will Ryan Franklin even approach 2009? Can Brad Penny stay healthy? If so, can he give them what Pinearo did last year? Can Carpenter stay healthy most of the season? While their 3-4 hitters and 1-2 starting pitchers are among the best in the league, they really dont have a lot of depth beyond that. Lugo was their best bat and they sent him to BaItimore for a Coke and a smile. I wouldnt count out the Brewers, although I see them as dark horses at best but I really dont see it with the Reds. They pretty much look like the same team they had last year+ Aaron Miles, which automatically makes them a few games worse.

[Backtobanks]

As I've posted before, the "experts" don't know any more than we do. When they make predictions, it's either the favorites so they can be right or it's something outlandish so they can have some controversy. Anybody that picks the Cubs 5th is just stirring up controversy. I'm a diehard Cubs fan, but it's obvious that at this point (on paper) the Cards are the best team with the Cubs 2nd.

 

As I stated above, the "experts" don't know squat. Ken Rosenthal (Foxsports) has the White Sox winning the World Series.

 

What's so outrageous about that?

 

If he picked them to win the AL Central, that's not outrageous. If he picked them to win the WS, it is outrageous.

 

 

Restating it doesn't really answer why it's outrageous.

 

Outrageous is picking a team that is counting on an everyday lineup that includes Juan Pierre, Mark Kotsay, Andruw Jones, Alex Rios, Mark Teahen, and Alexi Ramirez. Is that a better answer?

[Little Slide Rooter]

As I've posted before, the "experts" don't know any more than we do. When they make predictions, it's either the favorites so they can be right or it's something outlandish so they can have some controversy. Anybody that picks the Cubs 5th is just stirring up controversy. I'm a diehard Cubs fan, but it's obvious that at this point (on paper) the Cards are the best team with the Cubs 2nd.

 

As I stated above, the "experts" don't know squat. Ken Rosenthal (Foxsports) has the White Sox winning the World Series.

 

 

 

I wouldnt call it outrageous. Far fetched, yes, but outrageous, no. That team has a lot of depth. I dont think they're nearly as goos as the Red Sox, or even the Mariners, but its a pretty good team. Picking up Pierre, Jones, and Teahen isnt too different from picking up Dye, Pierzynski, and Podsednik in the '04-'05 offseason, and that worked out pretty well for them. They have a solid team for the 2010 season, just not one built to compete much longer after that.

[Guest]

My main prediction is the Starlin Castro will be playing full time at SS by July. I think Theriot slides over to second. I don't think we'll see any production out of 2nd base until then.

 

I also predict the Cubs will be somewhere in the 70s in win totals this year. I think the Cardinals win the division easily unless something happens to Pujols.

 

That's it.

[bhogg]

The Cardinals are being picked to repeat for the same reasons the Cubs were picked to repeat last year.

 

The cubs will contend for the division.

[erik316wttn]

I wouldnt count out the Brewers, although I see them as dark horses at best but I really dont see it with the Reds. They pretty much look like the same team they had last year+ Aaron Miles, which automatically makes them a few games worse.

 

The Reds would actually be my sleeper Wild Card pick if it wasn't for Dusty.

[Eephus Speed]

Again, if picking a team to make the postseason isn't outrageous, I don't see how picking that team to win the WS is outrageous. I'd probably rank the White Sox as the 5th or 6th best team in the AL. The Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Angels would be 1-4. I think the White Sox, Mariners, Twins, Tigers and Rangers are comparable. But, if you make the postseason, then it's just a matter of winning 3 series. You can lose 8 postseason games out of 19 and win the World Series. There'll be stretches when the worst teams in baseball win 11 of 19.

 

Regarding St. Louis's question marks, they're not really in the lineup. I think our lineup is pretty predictable. Last season, we got league average offense (~100 OPS+) from C, 2B, SS, LF and RF. I think we may lose a little offense at SS but gain at least that much from CF. We should get quite a bit more offense from LF. And we got so little from 3B last year that it's hard to believe Freese and Co. can't outperform Thurston and Co.

 

Our defense should be better (no Duncan, no Thurston, etc.).

 

Our question marks are in the pitching staff. Carpenter's health is always a concern. Penny's health is a concern, but we don't need him to repeat Pineiro's 2009 numbers (and keep in mind that we lost 14 of Pineiro's 32 games). We just need ~200 league average innings. Same goes for Lohse. I like Garcia's chances of giving us more than we got from Wellemeyer et al. Franklin will more than likely regress (maybe an ERA closer to 3.5 than 2)...not so much because of his BABIP, but because of his HR/FB%. Hawksworth is another one who should regress--hopefully he'll be replaced or only serve as a mopup guy. Brad Thompson's gone, so that helps. Motte and Boggs shouldn't be any worse at the very least. Miller might regress some--especially his walk rate.

[cardslesson101]

Realistically, I could see the Cubs finishing anywhere from 1-4 in the division. Most likely they'll finish 2nd or 3rd. I'm not buying into the Reds hype but if they are good, the Cubs would be 4th.

[cardslesson101]

Assuming a repeat of 2009, with Aramis missing more than half the season and Soriano and Soto both sucking, then yes, I could see the Cubs falling to 4th, maybe 5th. If not, and Aramis is healthy, and we get strong rebounds from Soriano or Soto, I think we'll be contending. Sure, the Cards looks nice on paper, but they have a lot of X factors as well. Sure, Pujols/Holliday, if not the best is one of the top 3 3-4s in the league, but beyod that, there are a lot of ?s. What to expect from Ludwick. What to expect from Rasums. Will Ryan Franklin even approach 2009? Can Brad Penny stay healthy? If so, can he give them what Pinearo did last year? Can Carpenter stay healthy most of the season? While their 3-4 hitters and 1-2 starting pitchers are among the best in the league, they really dont have a lot of depth beyond that. Lugo was their best bat and they sent him to BaItimore for a Coke and a smile. I wouldnt count out the Brewers, although I see them as dark horses at best but I really dont see it with the Reds. They pretty much look like the same team they had last year+ Aaron Miles, which automatically makes them a few games worse.

 

 

How was Lugo the Cardinals best bat? They have the same type of player in Lopez. Mather/Craig/Stavinoha can easily out hit Lugo.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

I think the Cubs depth may give them the edge over the Cardinals, I also think most the media is too comfortable with Carpenter being healthy. Lets face it, it is more likely that Zambrano steps up and has abig year than it is that Carpenter is healthy for a second consecutive year. Im not going to go into the season guns blazing saying the Cubs should win it without a contest like last year, but I like our chances. Other than the pirates and probably the Astros you cannot write off most of the division.. Baseball is a crazy game.

[Backtobanks]

More evidence about "experts" knowing squat.

 

Phil Rogers' Power Rankings in today's Tribune put the Cubs at #19. The Padres are #20. :-k

[Guest]

More evidence about "experts" knowing squat.

 

Phil Rogers' Power Rankings in today's Tribune put the Cubs at #19. The Padres are #20. :-k

 

The Padre hopeful are pretty excited about this youth movement. We'll see, I guess. I'm really curious if Venable's power surge of late is real. We know that Blanks can hit bombs.

[erik316wttn]

Just bumping this thread because I always think its interesting to see how predictions panned out after the season.

[Mark Priors Calves]

so today's game decides who finishes 4th/5th between us and the astros. god what an awful, season.

[Guest]

My main prediction is the Starlin Castro will be playing full time at SS by July. I think Theriot slides over to second. I don't think we'll see any production out of 2nd base until then.

 

I also predict the Cubs will be somewhere in the 70s in win totals this year. I think the Cardinals win the division easily unless something happens to Pujols.

 

That's it.

Almost had it.

[Fred Hornkohl]

My main prediction is the Starlin Castro will be playing full time at SS by July. I think Theriot slides over to second. I don't think we'll see any production out of 2nd base until then.

 

I also predict the Cubs will be somewhere in the 70s in win totals this year. I think the Cardinals win the division easily unless something happens to Pujols.

 

That's it.

Almost had it.

 

Horseshoes, hand grenades, and atom bombs, eh? :wink: