Just let the weeds grow out

[Lefty]

With the size of the contracts involved, and the age of the players signed, should the Cubs just stand pat and let nature take its course?

 

Lee and Lilly have one more year, Ramirez(?), Fukudome and Bradley have two. Soto is really the only young player who could be a major part of a winner.

 

Zambrano, Dempster and Soriano are here to stay.

 

With our exciting prospects still in the lower minors, I think we should suffer for a couple of years (what's a couple more years?) and allow the financial hole created by Hendry to heal itself. Of course Hendry would have to be fired to prevent him from recreating the mess. And stranger things have happened than a team like the Cubs competing which would shorten the transition period.

 

It's funny, though. Pie and Nolasco would fill the holes the Cubs are looking to fill to be the favorites in 2010.

[biittner77]

You'd have to fire Hendry first. Hendry right now is in "save my job" mode which is a very dangerous situation for any franchise.

 

It's funny, though. Pie and Nolasco would fill the holes the Cubs are looking to fill to be the favorites in 2010.

 

Pie is not a leadoff batter and does not hit for enough power to be the "LH rbi man" that Piniella and Hendry covet.

[Lefty]

An outfield of Soriano, Pie and Fukudome is better than what we're going to have for the money. I don't care about Hendry and Piniella's irrational ideas for the purposes of this discussion.

 

The Bradley trade will just hasten the decline.

[Butterscup1679666578]

Hendry isn't fighting for his job. He's gone after this year. He was gone before he made the Bradley trade. Edited December 19, 2009 by Butterscup

[Irrelevant Dude]

This is an interesting question and I wonder if this type of thinking has played a part in this offseason's spending (or lack thereof). I would like to think that Ricketts has money to spend, but just doesn't feel comfortable allowing Hendry to spend it. If the Cubs stand pat this offseason, they haven't improved the team in the short term, but they will be one year closer to the end of some bad contracts without digging their hole any deeper. It is unfortunate that it has come to that, but it would hopefully give the next GM a little more flexibility to rebuild the team.

[WrigleyField 22]

The thing that sucks is that the players we have coming off the books soon are some of our more productive players.

 

The key will be to not back load contract so irresponsibly in the future. Also keep contracts at a reasonable length.

 

The only time I ever want to see a Lilly type of back loaded deal ever again is if we are legitimately one step away and know that come contracts will come off the books the next year.

 

Money coming off books:

2010 : $40.75M

Lee $13M

Lilly $12M

Ramirez $15.75M (PO for $14.6M in '11, TO for $16M in '12)

2011: $27.75M

Fukudome $13.5M

Grabrow $3.75M *couldn't find contract breakdown

Silva $10.5M (I subtracted the 3M from Seattle, and added the $2M buyout)

2012: $14M

Dempster $14M (PO, he'll take)

2013- $19.25M

Zambrano $19.25M

2104- $18M

Soriano $18M

 

So we actually have $68.5M coming off the books the next two years (I assume ARam opts out), but I'd only classify $14.25 of that as really dead weight. Fukudome is kind of the wildcard. As a CF he is at least somewhat worth is contract. As a RF, I'd also classify him as dead weight.

 

I'd say we take our 2010/11 money and pay to keep those three guys or pay for comparable players to replace their production. With the new deals, I'd structure them to pay as much in 2010/11 as possible, even potentially front loading them a bit. Then I could see some bigger pay days in 2011 and 2012, hopefully coincided with some of our young talent beginning to make an impact.

[chasinf5s]

i dont see why everyone thinks Aram will opt out, everything i've heard makes it sound like he loves Chicago and wants to finish his career here. Sure he might opt out and resign for more money but i dont think he will be going anywhere

[Cubswin11]

i dont see why everyone thinks Aram will opt out, everything i've heard makes it sound like he loves Chicago and wants to finish his career here. Sure he might opt out and resign for more money but i dont think he will be going anywhere

He took a "discount" to stay last time, if he has a big year this year he might opt out to try and cash in big one last time. Whether it be the Cubs or somewhere else, he might not leave $20+ mil. on the table this time like he did last time. I agree with you that as long as we make a competitive offer I don't see him leaving to go elsewhere. The only stumbling block I could potentially see (which really isn't/shouldn't be one) is if Vitters continues to improve and Cubs are wanting to bring him up in 2011 or 2012 and want Ramirez to move to 1B and he has some sort of reservations against moving off of 3B and that causes a rift, highly unlikely, but maybe a possibility if someone offers him a 3B base spot and he wants to stay there and not learn another position.

[WrigleyField 22]

i dont see why everyone thinks Aram will opt out, everything i've heard makes it sound like he loves Chicago and wants to finish his career here. Sure he might opt out and resign for more money but i dont think he will be going anywhere

I don't know about him staying in Chicago or not, but bearing a major injury, he is opting out. No doubt. At the very least he can make the same amount as now but tack on a few extra years of guaranteed cash.

[A New Era]

I kinda feel the way you do TC. Get this Hendry crap overpaid, backloaded crap out of here. But the most important thing. Hendry needs to be GONE. The day that happens our franchise will start to look a tremendous amount better.

[Little Slide Rooter]

What really drives me nut is the people who say give Jim Hendry credit for 2007-2008. JIm Hendry made 3 great aquisitions, Lee, Ramirez, and Harden all through trade. Other than that, the only thing Hendry did was be present when the Trib finally decided that they wanted to spend money. Once that happened, he acted like a kid high on Fun DIp with a Toys R Us gift card. Soriano is Exhibit A. Its not like Hendry did anything special to get him. He grossly overbid for the guy. Yeah, he was the best thing that the pre 2007 FA class had, but that wasnt a particularly strong FA class. Take Jim Hendry and put him on a small payroll team like the Royals and Pirates, and they probably look worse than they do now.

[Lefty]

I am not a Zambrano-hater, but after reading Tim's front page article I would have to say it sounds like a good start.

[jersey cubs fan]

i dont see why everyone thinks Aram will opt out, everything i've heard makes it sound like he loves Chicago and wants to finish his career here. Sure he might opt out and resign for more money but i dont think he will be going anywhere

I don't know about him staying in Chicago or not, but bearing a major injury, he is opting out. No doubt. At the very least he can make the same amount as now but tack on a few extra years of guaranteed cash.

 

In addition to the no-brainer move to get more money, I'm not sure how much more of this crap Aramis wants to deal with. He's still villified in some circles for being fat and lazy, for not being there when Lee went down and crap like that. He's dealt with lots of injuries in his career and probably thinks his chances for a title are dwindling. I do believe he honestly likes being a Cub, in general, but I think a potentially miserable 2010 could easily push him out the door to any number of more frequently competitive teams that could use a bat like his.

[DurbanJer]

i dont see why everyone thinks Aram will opt out, everything i've heard makes it sound like he loves Chicago and wants to finish his career here. Sure he might opt out and resign for more money but i dont think he will be going anywhere

I don't know about him staying in Chicago or not, but bearing a major injury, he is opting out. No doubt. At the very least he can make the same amount as now but tack on a few extra years of guaranteed cash.

 

In addition to the no-brainer move to get more money, I'm not sure how much more of this crap Aramis wants to deal with. He's still villified in some circles for being fat and lazy, for not being there when Lee went down and crap like that. He's dealt with lots of injuries in his career and probably thinks his chances for a title are dwindling. I do believe he honestly likes being a Cub, in general, but I think a potentially miserable 2010 could easily push him out the door to any number of more frequently competitive teams that could use a bat like his.

 

Only way Ramirez doesn't opt out is if he's spends a lot of time on the DL this year. Which is of course bad for the Cubs. We lose perhaps our most productive player for chunks of 2010, he stays around for 2011, but at substantial risk to continued injury.

 

Vitters development will be extremely important over the next two years. I doubt that JH has a 'Plan B' - if you could ever accuse JH of following and executing a plan.

[scarey]

What really drives me nut is the people who say give Jim Hendry credit for 2007-2008. JIm Hendry made 3 great aquisitions, Lee, Ramirez, and Harden all through trade. Other than that, the only thing Hendry did was be present when the Trib finally decided that they wanted to spend money. Once that happened, he acted like a kid high on Fun DIp with a Toys R Us gift card. Soriano is Exhibit A. Its not like Hendry did anything special to get him. He grossly overbid for the guy. Yeah, he was the best thing that the pre 2007 FA class had, but that wasnt a particularly strong FA class. Take Jim Hendry and put him on a small payroll team like the Royals and Pirates, and they probably look worse than they do now.

 

 

I worry about even making this point because I can sense the ensuing lynch mob, but what makes you think the spending spree was totally on Hendry? Yes, the Tribune gave Hendry an increase in payroll, but at the same time they were in the early stages of getting ready to sell the team.

 

I have no definitive proof in support or opposition of it, but I always felt like the Tribune directed Hendry on some of the contracts he signed. Afterall, what did they care? They wouldn't be picking up the tab of most of the contracts anyway. So, overpay to put a good product on the field (no matter what you say about them going forward, Soriano and Zambrano are big reasons for recent success) and try to pull in a couple extra million in the transaction.

 

I'm not giving Hendry a free pass, or saying anything he did was acceptable. All I'm saying is a lot of people here act as if we're doomed until we unload Hendry when the truth is... getting the Cubs away from the Tribune company and Zell was at least half the battle.

 

Yes, he's still giving out stupid contracts to middle relievers, but I don't think Hendry is going to sign older players to lucrative, long term deals going forward regardless of the payroll constraints. I realize we may never know if that's true or not, but I believe Hendry over paid knowing it was for short term value. I don't think Ricketts will be buying into that philosophy since he's planning on keeping the franchise for a little while.

[LemmeHearYa]

i dont see why everyone thinks Aram will opt out, everything i've heard makes it sound like he loves Chicago and wants to finish his career here. Sure he might opt out and resign for more money but i dont think he will be going anywhere

 

 

"Loves Chicago." I doubt it. I'm sure it's been as painful for the players as it has been for the fans the last few years (well the last 100 years....but we are just talking about Ramirez). If he gets the chance to go to a bona-fide winner for big money....he will be gone.

[grassbass]

i dont see why everyone thinks Aram will opt out, everything i've heard makes it sound like he loves Chicago and wants to finish his career here. Sure he might opt out and resign for more money but i dont think he will be going anywhere

 

 

"Loves Chicago." I doubt it. I'm sure it's been as painful for the players as it has been for the fans the last few years (well the last 100 years....but we are just talking about Ramirez). If he gets the chance to go to a bona-fide winner for big money....he will be gone.

 

He had a chance to do just that when he exercised his opt-out clause after the horrendous 2006 season. He re-signed with the Cubs a month later without really testing the market. If he was going to bolt for greener pastures, the time to do it would have been after a 66-96 season, when he was still on the right side of 30.

[LemmeHearYa]

i dont see why everyone thinks Aram will opt out, everything i've heard makes it sound like he loves Chicago and wants to finish his career here. Sure he might opt out and resign for more money but i dont think he will be going anywhere

 

 

"Loves Chicago." I doubt it. I'm sure it's been as painful for the players as it has been for the fans the last few years (well the last 100 years....but we are just talking about Ramirez). If he gets the chance to go to a bona-fide winner for big money....he will be gone.

 

He had a chance to do just that when he exercised his opt-out clause after the horrendous 2006 season. He re-signed with the Cubs a month later without really testing the market. If he was going to bolt for greener pastures, the time to do it would have been after a 66-96 season, when he was still on the right side of 30.

 

Maybe. But he's witnessed some brutal Cubs karma since then....while proving to the rest of the league that he really is a force. I just wouldnt be surprised to see him go. Hope he stays though.

[SouthSideRyan]

i dont see why everyone thinks Aram will opt out, everything i've heard makes it sound like he loves Chicago and wants to finish his career here. Sure he might opt out and resign for more money but i dont think he will be going anywhere

 

 

"Loves Chicago." I doubt it. I'm sure it's been as painful for the players as it has been for the fans the last few years (well the last 100 years....but we are just talking about Ramirez). If he gets the chance to go to a bona-fide winner for big money....he will be gone.

 

He had a chance to do just that when he exercised his opt-out clause after the horrendous 2006 season. He re-signed with the Cubs a month later without really testing the market. If he was going to bolt for greener pastures, the time to do it would have been after a 66-96 season, when he was still on the right side of 30.

 

Maybe. But he's witnessed some brutal Cubs karma since then....while proving to the rest of the league that he really is a force. I just wouldnt be surprised to see him go. Hope he stays though.

 

So the previous 3 great seasons Ramirez had weren't enough for the rest of the league? The Angels were widely reported to be offering more than the Cubs. The league knew about Ramirez in that offseason.

[jersey cubs fan]

He had a chance to do just that when he exercised his opt-out clause after the horrendous 2006 season. He re-signed with the Cubs a month later without really testing the market. If he was going to bolt for greener pastures, the time to do it would have been after a 66-96 season, when he was still on the right side of 30.

 

I would say just the opposite. If he was going to press his luck and try to win one with Chicago, by far the most potentially prosperous option at the time, being under 30 was the time to do it. In his mind he was young and had a long career still ahead of him. Post-30, after multiple disappointments and setbacks, when the end of your career is creeping up on you, is the time you start thinking about just going wherever the best place to win is (well, that and your last big paycheck).

[Butterscup1679666578]

The Cubs' World Series window was wide open when Aramis signed his contract. It is now closed. He has the money at this point, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him opt out and leave for a team that could actually win for a change.

[SouthSideRyan]

The Cubs' World Series window was wide open when Aramis signed his contract. It is now closed. He has the money at this point, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him opt out and leave for a team that could actually win for a change.

 

The Cubs world series window was wide open when they were coming off of a 66 win season?

[jersey cubs fan]

The Cubs' World Series window was wide open when Aramis signed his contract. It is now closed. He has the money at this point, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him opt out and leave for a team that could actually win for a change.

 

The Cubs world series window was wide open when they were coming off of a 66 win season?

 

When their best players were younger and their payroll was beginning to expand exponentially, yes. Ramirez signed the same month that Soriano signed, I'm sure that level of committment, which was forecasted before it happened, influenced him quite a bit. The Cubs have stepped back from the acquisition window, which can be interpreted by players that they aren't trying to win. But it's not closed now.

[SouthSideRyan]

So how little does the previous year's success matter? Was the world series window wide open for the '04 Tigers? All their good players were young and they had a blank check.

[grassbass]

He had a chance to do just that when he exercised his opt-out clause after the horrendous 2006 season. He re-signed with the Cubs a month later without really testing the market. If he was going to bolt for greener pastures, the time to do it would have been after a 66-96 season, when he was still on the right side of 30.

 

I would say just the opposite. If he was going to press his luck and try to win one with Chicago, by far the most potentially prosperous option at the time, being under 30 was the time to do it. In his mind he was young and had a long career still ahead of him. Post-30, after multiple disappointments and setbacks, when the end of your career is creeping up on you, is the time you start thinking about just going wherever the best place to win is (well, that and your last big paycheck).

 

Problem is that he's now on the wrong side of 30 with a longer injury history than he had following the 2006 season. Back then, he could have received a bigger payday.

 

You are right that he might see his window of opportunity for a World Series ring closing. But I don't think the offers will be quite as high as they would have been three years ago. I guess an AL team might be willing to risk a little more in terms of money and years if they can DH him from time-to-time to try to keep him healthy.