College Football - Week of Oct. 24th

[bcl412]

Iowa's biggst strength is probably their pass defense so I think they'd do fine against a pass happy SEC team.

 

They've faced like one top third passing team this year. I'm not going to say they have a bad pass defense because they do not. I'm going to say that part of their numbers of a great passing defense is due to not facing quality passing teams.

 

Cool. I still stand by everyting I just said.

[manbearcub]

Slow down, Meph. You can't just explode in one thread like this.

dang, good catch.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The SEC still has 12 games left against non-conference patsies(LA Monroe, Eastern Michigan, Tulane, Furman, Tennessee Tech, Eastern Kentucky, Northern Arizona, Memphis, Troy, Louisiana Tech, Florida Int'l and Chattanooga). That's why the SEC has some inflated Sagarin scores. The rest of the BCS conferences combined have 11 such games left.

[XZero771679666304]

All I know is for all the SEC being as good as the AFC crap that I have heard the last 10 years, they are just about even in head to head games against teh Big Ten over the last 15 yrs or so.

 

sorry, I mean in Bowl Games...not sure about regular season head to head games

 

True, but this year the Big 10 is just about as bad top to bottom as it has been in my lifetime, IMO.

 

Maybe that's overstating things, but I don't think so.

[NewUserName]

All I know is for all the SEC being as good as the AFC crap that I have heard the last 10 years, they are just about even in head to head games against teh Big Ten over the last 15 yrs or so.

 

sorry, I mean in Bowl Games...not sure about regular season head to head games

 

True, but this year the Big 10 is just about as bad top to bottom as it has been in my lifetime, IMO.

 

Maybe that's overstating things, but I don't think so.

 

IDK, seems like every year I hear how great the SEC is and how bad the Big Ten is. The SEC has just about all the advantages in bowl games against Big Ten teams but the record is still pretty even over the long haul.

[Grit amp Heart]

The SEC still has 12 games left against non-conference patsies(LA Monroe, Eastern Michigan, Tulane, Furman, Tennessee Tech, Eastern Kentucky, Northern Arizona, Memphis, Troy, Louisiana Tech, Florida Int'l and Chattanooga. That's why the SEC has some inflated Sagarin scores. The rest of the BCS conferences combined have 11 such games left.

That's not why they have "inflated" scores. If they beat those teams as expected their sagarins scores will pretty much be unchanged. now if they beat northern iowa 17-16. they will change. How well Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and to a certain extent Vanderbilt do in their ACC matchups in November will mean a lot more than those games.

[Grit amp Heart]

All I know is for all the SEC being as good as the AFC crap that I have heard the last 10 years, they are just about even in head to head games against teh Big Ten over the last 15 yrs or so.

 

sorry, I mean in Bowl Games...not sure about regular season head to head games

 

True, but this year the Big 10 is just about as bad top to bottom as it has been in my lifetime, IMO.

 

Maybe that's overstating things, but I don't think so.

 

IDK, seems like every year I hear how great the SEC is and how bad the Big Ten is. The SEC has just about all the advantages in bowl games against Big Ten teams but the record is still pretty even over the long haul.

well the SEC was better the last five years, the big ten was better the five years before that, and iirc each conference had one or two national titles the five years before that. so over that stretch they should be close.

[TheVolCub08]

The SEC is most definitely down this year. That said, the SEC's top two schools are better than every other conference's top two, and I'd go ahead and say that 1-3, the SEC is better than any other conference, and I'd imagine it's not really all that close.

 

Of course, as a Tennessee fan, the last thing I care to do is pound my chest over how good Florida and Alabama are.

[XZero771679666304]

All I know is for all the SEC being as good as the AFC crap that I have heard the last 10 years, they are just about even in head to head games against teh Big Ten over the last 15 yrs or so.

 

sorry, I mean in Bowl Games...not sure about regular season head to head games

 

True, but this year the Big 10 is just about as bad top to bottom as it has been in my lifetime, IMO.

 

Maybe that's overstating things, but I don't think so.

 

IDK, seems like every year I hear how great the SEC is and how bad the Big Ten is. The SEC has just about all the advantages in bowl games against Big Ten teams but the record is still pretty even over the long haul.

 

True, but this year I think the notion that the Big 10 just isn't very good has some teeth.

[NewUserName]

All I know is for all the SEC being as good as the AFC crap that I have heard the last 10 years, they are just about even in head to head games against teh Big Ten over the last 15 yrs or so.

 

sorry, I mean in Bowl Games...not sure about regular season head to head games

 

True, but this year the Big 10 is just about as bad top to bottom as it has been in my lifetime, IMO.

 

Maybe that's overstating things, but I don't think so.

 

IDK, seems like every year I hear how great the SEC is and how bad the Big Ten is. The SEC has just about all the advantages in bowl games against Big Ten teams but the record is still pretty even over the long haul.

well the SEC was better the last five years, the big ten was better the five years before that, and iirc each conference had one or two national titles the five years before that. so over that stretch they should be close.

 

Big Ten victories in the last 5 years against SEC in bowl games 6

SEC victories in the last 5 years against Big Ten in bowl games 5

 

I do believe all but one is a New Years day bowl or better. So we are not talking our 6th best against your 7th best. These are the games involving the conferences top 4 teams or better. Played mostly in venues very friendly to the SEC school.

[Grit amp Heart]

2 games a year hardly mean a thing, especially when the two are split. The other thousand games played a season mean a lot more.

[NewUserName]

2 games a year hardly mean a thing, especially when the two are split. The other thousand games played a season mean a lot more.

 

its what we have though. I am not making some claim that the Big Ten is a "superior" conference. SEC fans have been making that claim for years. I am not even saying that overall the SEC is probably the best conference over the last 10 years or so. It is just not that much better and it certainly is a crock of pooh to say your 5th best team is better then Iowa. That kind of stuff has never actually played out.

[Grit amp Heart]

I never said the fifth best team was better than Iowa. I merely said it'd be close to a coin flip.

[bcl412]

I never said the fifth best team was better than Iowa. I merely said it'd be close to a coin flip.

 

Isn't every game between two BCS schools that aren't the crappy bottom of the barrel teams, essentially a coinflip.

[NewUserName]

I never said the fifth best team was better than Iowa. I merely said it'd be close to a coin flip.

 

And your wrong.

[Grit amp Heart]

I never said the fifth best team was better than Iowa. I merely said it'd be close to a coin flip.

 

And your wrong.

 

If Arkansas and Iowa met in the Capital One bowl, or Sugar Bowl or any bowl down there Iowa would be favored by 1.5. Give or take a couple. Thats based on what the teams have done up to right now. Teams favored by a field goal or less generally win 55% of the time. Who said I was flipping a fair coin?

[NewUserName]

I never said the fifth best team was better than Iowa. I merely said it'd be close to a coin flip.

 

And your wrong.

 

If Arkansas and Iowa met in the Capital One bowl, or Sugar Bowl or any bowl down there Iowa would be favored by 1.5. Give or take a couple. Thats based on what the teams have done up to right now. Teams favored by a field goal or less generally win 55% of the time. Who said I was flipping a fair coin?

 

but point spreads are not based on who is the better team. They are based on trying to get an equal amount of action going both ways. The SEC is as good as the NFL perception will sway the spread. It has been that way for years. Yet like I pointed out the Big Ten seems to be holding its own in ACTUAL games.

[hawkeyecub]

Slow down, Meph. You can't just explode in one thread like this.

dang, good catch.

 

When I saw the Sagarin breakdown and then the over the type SEC love it was my first thought. Well actually my first thought was "Who did this Grit and Heart guy used to be?" Then the answer came pretty quickly. That's alright though, college football threads are more fun with him here.

 

The SEC wasn't deep last year and it's not deep this year. Maybe even worse. You have two elite teams and then a bunch of athletes on defense with almost all garbage QB play.

Edited October 22, 2009 by hawkeyecub

[Grit amp Heart]

I never said the fifth best team was better than Iowa. I merely said it'd be close to a coin flip.

 

And your wrong.

 

If Arkansas and Iowa met in the Capital One bowl, or Sugar Bowl or any bowl down there Iowa would be favored by 1.5. Give or take a couple. Thats based on what the teams have done up to right now. Teams favored by a field goal or less generally win 55% of the time. Who said I was flipping a fair coin?

 

but point spreads are not based on who is the better team. They are based on trying to get an equal amount of action going both ways. The SEC is as good as the NFL perception will sway the spread. It has been that way for years. Yet like I pointed out the Big Ten seems to be holding its own in ACTUAL games.

 

iowa isn't even favored against michigan state. if there was a large discrepancy between the real point spread and actual difference between the teams, smart people would bet on the easy win and force the point spread down to where it should go. it's not different than stocks and the betting market for highly computerized. inefficiencies don't last long.

 

and I did NOT use any vegas futures lines or anything that for the Arkansas and Iowa matchup. I used actual difference between the teams, not the real point spread.

[NewUserName]

I never said the fifth best team was better than Iowa. I merely said it'd be close to a coin flip.

 

And your wrong.

 

If Arkansas and Iowa met in the Capital One bowl, or Sugar Bowl or any bowl down there Iowa would be favored by 1.5. Give or take a couple. Thats based on what the teams have done up to right now. Teams favored by a field goal or less generally win 55% of the time. Who said I was flipping a fair coin?

 

but point spreads are not based on who is the better team. They are based on trying to get an equal amount of action going both ways. The SEC is as good as the NFL perception will sway the spread. It has been that way for years. Yet like I pointed out the Big Ten seems to be holding its own in ACTUAL games.

 

iowa isn't even favored against michigan state. if there was a large discrepancy between the real point spread and actual difference between the teams, smart people would bet on the easy win and force the point spread down to where it should go. it's not different than stocks and the betting market for highly computerized. inefficiencies don't last long.

 

and I did NOT use any vegas futures lines or anything that for the Arkansas and Iowa matchup. I used actual difference between the teams, not the real point spread.

 

But MSU is just as good as Arkansas and the game is in East Lansing. Hear is the thing. You can type until you are blue in the fingertips. I agree that the SEC is better than the Big Ten. I am just saying it is pure crap to say the SEC's 5th best is the best in the Big Ten and that is what you are implying. This year on January 1st some inferior Big Ten team is going to beat LSU in the Capitol One bowl and you SEC fans will call it a fluke. But at some point you have to wonder why it happens every year.

[manbearcub]

I never said the fifth best team was better than Iowa. I merely said it'd be close to a coin flip.

 

And your wrong.

 

If Arkansas and Iowa met in the Capital One bowl, or Sugar Bowl or any bowl down there Iowa would be favored by 1.5. Give or take a couple. Thats based on what the teams have done up to right now. Teams favored by a field goal or less generally win 55% of the time. Who said I was flipping a fair coin?

 

but point spreads are not based on who is the better team. They are based on trying to get an equal amount of action going both ways. The SEC is as good as the NFL perception will sway the spread. It has been that way for years. Yet like I pointed out the Big Ten seems to be holding its own in ACTUAL games.

 

iowa isn't even favored against michigan state.

Good point. Michigan State would beat 2/3 of the SEC and they are the 6th best team in the big ten.

[ISUCubsFan]

I never said the fifth best team was better than Iowa. I merely said it'd be close to a coin flip.

 

And your wrong.

 

If Arkansas and Iowa met in the Capital One bowl, or Sugar Bowl or any bowl down there Iowa would be favored by 1.5. Give or take a couple. Thats based on what the teams have done up to right now. Teams favored by a field goal or less generally win 55% of the time. Who said I was flipping a fair coin?

 

but point spreads are not based on who is the better team. They are based on trying to get an equal amount of action going both ways. The SEC is as good as the NFL perception will sway the spread. It has been that way for years. Yet like I pointed out the Big Ten seems to be holding its own in ACTUAL games.

 

From 2000-2008 the SEC was 197-196-5 vs the spread, so they're pretty close to reality. Like it was just said, if the public hits one side of the line hard, the experts usually push it back the other way.

 

Edit: I should note that's against non-conference opponents only. Obviously they're .500 in conference.

Edited October 22, 2009 by ISUCubsFan

[OleMissCub]

No, you're right. Iowa would not be able to compete with teams like South Carolina. In fact, they would probably get blown out.

 

easy there captain hyperbole, all he said was that it would be a coin flip and laid out his reasons why. If SEC don't have good QB's this year, they DEFINITELY have good defenses.

 

It's amazing how nutty SEC fans are about keeping up appearances.

 

If you can actually sit down and watch LSU, UGA, UT, Ole Miss, S. Carolina, etc. and tell me that isn't garbage quarterback play you're completely delusional. Those guys are awful.

 

Yeah, well OMC met Patrick Willis.

 

better than that, he was my neighbor for two years!!!11!

[Andy]

iowa isn't even favored against michigan state.

Good point. Michigan State would beat 2/3 of the SEC and they are the 6th best team in the big ten.

Why is Michigan State good now? A month ago everyone said they were crap.

[OleMissCub]

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