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Cubs Sign Grabow (2 years, $7.5 Million)

Little Slide Rooter
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IMO - there's no way Grabow would make much more than $3.75M in arbitration - if he'd even get that much.

 

In which case, it is absolutely ludicrous to sign him to this two year deal rather than just offering arbitration. If he refuses it - fine. Go out and sign Will Ohman or any of the other 20 nearly identical lefty relievers that will be on the market this winter. With any luck, we'd net picks out of the deal. At worst, we have Grabow on a one year deal that minimizes risk going forward.

 

Is this really that hard to understand, Jim?

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jersey cubs fan GOAT

jersey cubs fan

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well, it can't get worse than last offseason right guys?

 

:beg:

 

There's a part of me that's hoping for another crappy offseason, followed by a 71-win season, followed by Ricketts firing everyone and starting over with some actual baseball minds.

 

I know that's messed up, but I can't help it.

 

Screw baseball minds. The Cubs organization has been littered with baseball minds, including several former GMs and other well respected baseball people. Baseball people are really stupid. They need smart people.

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Tyrant First Round Pick

Tyrant

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well, it can't get worse than last offseason right guys?

 

:beg:

 

There's a part of me that's hoping for another crappy offseason, followed by a 71-win season, followed by Ricketts firing everyone and starting over with some actual baseball minds.

 

I know that's messed up, but I can't help it.

 

Screw baseball minds. The Cubs organization has been littered with baseball minds, including several former GMs and other well respected baseball people. Baseball people are really stupid. They need smart people.

 

I didn't mean old boys baseball minds like Dusty Baker. I meant smart baseball minds.

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davell Chicago Cubs

davell

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IMO - there's no way Grabow would make much more than $3.75M in arbitration - if he'd even get that much.

 

In which case, it is absolutely ludicrous to sign him to this two year deal rather than just offering arbitration. If he refuses it - fine. Go out and sign Will Ohman or any of the other 20 nearly identical lefty relievers that will be on the market this winter. With any luck, we'd net picks out of the deal. At worst, we have Grabow on a one year deal that minimizes risk going forward.

 

Is this really that hard to understand, Jim?

 

 

This is Hendry being a "player-friendly" GM at his finest right here. It seems like all the players like him alot and it is good to build up loyalty actually. But, you do it with guys like Aramis and Z, not guys like Grabow, who are easily replaceable. To me, the only POSSIBLE silver lining in this move COULD BE that we non-tender Heilman, instead of giving him the 2.5ish or so, it's going to require to pay him through arbitration.

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David GOAT

David

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From Fangraphs... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/john-grabow-gets-paid

 

Once again, we’re witness to the power of ERA as a negotiating tool. Over the last two seasons, Grabow’s thrown nearly 150 innings and posted an ERA of 3.09, giving the impression that he’s a high quality LH reliever. Yet again, ERA misleads.

Grabow’s FIP the last two years? 4.37, thanks to an atrociously high walk total. The entirety of his low ERA over the last two years is driven by an 82 percent rate of stranding runners, which is just not sustainable. He’s succeeded by putting men on base and then wiggling out of jams, but that’s not the same thing as pitching well.

It would be one thing if Grabow had developed this knack for stranding runners by elevating his strikeout rate, but he’s not any different now than he has been for his entire career.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/1848_P_season_blog_3_20091006.png

Instead, he’s just posted artificially low BABIPs the last two years, and by not giving up hits, he was able to keep the guys he walked on the bases. That’s not a recipe for success.

Grabow is a generic left-handed middle reliever, the kind of guy you’re fine having for the league minimum but that you don’t really want to pay any real money to. He’s eminently replaceable, but the Cubs have decided to commit real money to him over multiple years because he has a low ERA.

The Cubs have money, and $3.75 million isn’t going to drastically alter their budget, but this is just a waste of cash. Betting on reliever ERA is a great way to get burned, and given Grabow’s actual talent levels, the Cubs are unlikely to be very happy with how this deal turns out for them.

Edited by David
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Derwood GOAT

Derwood

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According to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, the Cubs have agreed in principle on a two-year contract with John Grabow.

The two sides were able to come to an agreement before Chicago's exclusivity window expired. An official announcement could come later today, but Grabow is expected to receive $7.5 million over two years.

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Transmogrified Tiger Chicago Cubs

Transmogrified Tiger

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it's way too much money, but he IS better than Marshall

 

 

He's not, that's why this is such a waste. One of Marshall/Gorzelanny is headed to the pen, and John Gaub spent last year incinerating Triple-A hitters. There's not a hole here to be filled. Russell is lying around if you want depth, and if things go bad I'm sure you can do what you did last year, and trade for a mediocre LH reliever at the deadline.

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Derwood GOAT

Derwood

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it's way too much money, but he IS better than Marshall

 

 

He's not, that's why this is such a waste. One of Marshall/Gorzelanny is headed to the pen, and John Gaub spent last year incinerating Triple-A hitters. There's not a hole here to be filled. Russell is lying around if you want depth, and if things go bad I'm sure you can do what you did last year, and trade for a mediocre LH reliever at the deadline.

 

agreed, waste of money, and Grabow is only marginally better (due, as has been shown, to some outlier stats). I'm just not terribly enamored with Marshall, but at his price, I'll roll the dice

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From Fangraphs... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/john-grabow-gets-paid

 

Once again, we’re witness to the power of ERA as a negotiating tool. Over the last two seasons, Grabow’s thrown nearly 150 innings and posted an ERA of 3.09, giving the impression that he’s a high quality LH reliever. Yet again, ERA misleads.

Grabow’s FIP the last two years? 4.37, thanks to an atrociously high walk total. The entirety of his low ERA over the last two years is driven by an 82 percent rate of stranding runners, which is just not sustainable. He’s succeeded by putting men on base and then wiggling out of jams, but that’s not the same thing as pitching well.

It would be one thing if Grabow had developed this knack for stranding runners by elevating his strikeout rate, but he’s not any different now than he has been for his entire career.

snip

Instead, he’s just posted artificially low BABIPs the last two years, and by not giving up hits, he was able to keep the guys he walked on the bases. That’s not a recipe for success.

Grabow is a generic left-handed middle reliever, the kind of guy you’re fine having for the league minimum but that you don’t really want to pay any real money to. He’s eminently replaceable, but the Cubs have decided to commit real money to him over multiple years because he has a low ERA.

The Cubs have money, and $3.75 million isn’t going to drastically alter their budget, but this is just a waste of cash. Betting on reliever ERA is a great way to get burned, and given Grabow’s actual talent levels, the Cubs are unlikely to be very happy with how this deal turns out for them.

If Hendry made this deal based on ERA he's not very smart. I'm not a Hendry supporter, but I have to think that's not why they extended him.

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