Cubs WC chances

[Magdal]

Not too bad, really. We can make up the 2 games on the East pretty easy. (Fla has the toughest sched. of all the non West contenders) Plus they are the only team that has to play both the Phils and Cards.

 

Atl. has it easier but you know they are beatable.

 

So it's the west that's the issue. L.A. is playing .500 ball now but they play a bunch of games vs. Pit, SD and the Nats to close out so they should win the west.

 

Col is starting to fall off pretty bad right now, and Giambi won't be saving them every nite!

 

SF has the toughest of ALL playing Col and LA 9 times and 4 with us in the last week. It may come down to that last series.

 

Cubs sched: only 7 games w/.500 teams.

 

The X factor in the whole thing is the only 2 "fair" playing teams in the NL: Brews and Stro's. No other losing team has a shot at a .500 season. They could inflict various kinds of damage on any team w/o warning.....I'm pulling for them. (exept for the 7 games we play vs. the Brews....those games will be HUGE)

Edited September 3, 2009 by Magdal

[Little Slide Rooter]

Possible? Yes. Likely? No. 6 games isnt really that bad, but Id bea lot more oprimistic if it were with 1 or 2 teams in front of us instead of 4. As far as Im concerned, as a whole The Cubs are better than all 4 of those teams, but enough so to make up 6 games, probably not.

 

Ill tell you what though, if The Giants take the WC, theres not a team in the league that wants any part of that pitching staff in the playoffs.

[Magdal]

Possible? Yes. Likely? No. 6 games isnt really that bad, but Id bea lot more oprimistic if it were with 1 or 2 teams in front of us instead of 4. As far as Im concerned, as a whole The Cubs are better than all 4 of those teams, but enough so to make up 6 games, probably not.

 

Ill tell you what though, if The Giants take the WC, theres not a team in the league that wants any part of that pitching staff in the playoffs.

That's true, but there is no team that does'nt want to face that ave. offense and weak Pen.

[bukie]

Cubs WC chances? I'd say about 2%.

[kujay]

Cubs WC chances? I'd say about 2%.

 

If that.

 

And I know this is going to sound overly cynical, but assume they make it. Great. We get three more games.

[Prizefight]

Not too bad, really. We can make up the 2 games on the East pretty easy. (Fla has the toughest sched. of all the non West contenders) Plus they are the only team that has to play both the Phils and Cards.

 

Atl. has it easier but you know they are beatable.

 

So it's the west that's the issue. L.A. is playing .500 ball now but they play a bunch of games vs. Pit, SD and the Nats to close out so they should win the west.

 

Col is starting to fall off pretty bad right now, and Giambi won't be saving them every nite!

 

SF has the toughest of ALL playing Col and LA 9 times and 4 with us in the last week. It may come down to that last series.

 

Cubs sched: only 7 games w/.500 teams.

 

The X factor in the whole thing is the only 2 "fair" playing teams in the NL: Brews and Stro's. No other losing team has a shot at a .500 season. They could inflict various kinds of damage on any team w/o warning.....I'm pulling for them. (exept for the 7 games we play vs. the Brews....those games will be HUGE)

 

Your optimism makes me happy.

[soapy]

The biggest problem (aside from the obvious fact that the Cubs just aren't that good) is that they only play three games against the teams in front of them. It's certainly possible, but the odds against are just staggering at this point.

[SouthSideRyan]

The biggest problem (aside from the obvious fact that the Cubs just aren't that good) is that they only play three games against the teams in front of them. It's certainly possible, but the odds against are just staggering at this point.

 

4 with the Giants.

 

The Braves and Marlins are certainly catchable. The Giants probably are too. In order to catch the Rockies and Giants, the Cubs need the Dodgers to beat the crap out of the Giants while the Giants beat the crap out of the Rockies, and some other team with nothing to play for does as well. Throughout all this the Cubs need to play their(by far) best baseball of the season.

[cheapseats]

Cubs WC chances? I'd say about 2%.

 

2% chance according to BP.

[Magdal]

The biggest problem (aside from the obvious fact that the Cubs just aren't that good) is that they only play three games against the teams in front of them. It's certainly possible, but the odds against are just staggering at this point.

 

4 with the Giants.

 

The Braves and Marlins are certainly catchable. The Giants probably are too. In order to catch the Rockies and Giants, the Cubs need the Dodgers to beat the crap out of the Giants while the Giants beat the crap out of the Rockies, and some other team with nothing to play for does as well. Throughout all this the Cubs need to play their(by far) best baseball of the season.

You hit the nail on the head, Ryan....lotsa if's...but as you probably know stranger things have happened...like Brooklyn having a 12 game lead on Sept. the 1st, playing .600 ball the rest of the way and STILL got caught by NY ('51?)

 

More astounding to me was the '64 Phils who had a 6 1/2 game lead over 3 teams with 2 weeks to go and were caught by all 3! Well, not exactly....the Giants were eliminated on the friday of the last weekend.

 

Compared to this stuff the Cubs have it easy! I know my optimism must be nauseating to dyed in the wool Cub fans....I admit to being the fair weather variety....but there is so dam much talent on this team that has not clicked yet.....I will say this: If Z does'nt start doing some good pitching right now it WILL be futile.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'll say a 25-6 finish does it.

 

That's a lot more depressing than looking game by game.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Hi Scott!

[Schwarber Fan]

Giants, Braves and Rockies all lose.

 

So frustrating to think about all the ground we could have gained...

[Little Slide Rooter]

 

So frustrating to think about all the ground we could have gained...

 

This is the theme of the 2009 season.

[NCCubFan]

There's actually a different meaning of "WC" that's more applicable to the 2009 Cubs.

[Bull]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

[Roast]

WOOT! 2% baby!

[Soul]

Our chances?

 

Well within the realm of the extremely unlikely.

[pitchcs]

Not too bad, really. We can make up the 2 games on the East pretty easy. (Fla has the toughest sched. of all the non West contenders) Plus they are the only team that has to play both the Phils and Cards.

 

Atl. has it easier but you know they are beatable.

 

So it's the west that's the issue. L.A. is playing .500 ball now but they play a bunch of games vs. Pit, SD and the Nats to close out so they should win the west.

 

Col is starting to fall off pretty bad right now, and Giambi won't be saving them every nite!

 

SF has the toughest of ALL playing Col and LA 9 times and 4 with us in the last week. It may come down to that last series.

 

Cubs sched: only 7 games w/.500 teams.

 

The X factor in the whole thing is the only 2 "fair" playing teams in the NL: Brews and Stro's. No other losing team has a shot at a .500 season. They could inflict various kinds of damage on any team w/o warning.....I'm pulling for them. (exept for the 7 games we play vs. the Brews....those games will be HUGE)

 

Your optimism makes me happy.

 

Makes me wanna puke

[Bull]

WOOT! 2% baby!

they asked for it.....

[Magdal]

Wild Card update: We could be in better shape. Col has kept winning, but SF is tanking (and w/o Lince) will tank further. We passed Atl and St. Louis will provide the knockout punch this weekend.

 

LA still playing .500 ball with Manny and Kemp doing nothing. Just keep winning..that's all. A Sori-free lineup is SO much better. In a week we will be ahead of Fla and even w/SF and knocking on that Colorado door.

 

Keep the faith.

[Schwarber Fan]

Even though we passed ATL and SF is heading down the Howryer, the Rockies aren't going to lose again, much less play a road game (it seems)

 

Thanks for the optimism though - it is indeed very refreshing.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Remember, we still play a lot of games vs. teams other than the Pirates.

[Roast]

yeah, we're still 8 back.

[Magdal]

Even though we passed ATL and SF is heading down the Howryer, the Rockies aren't going to lose again, much less play a road game (it seems)

 

Thanks for the optimism though - it is indeed very refreshing.

But Aramis...they WILL lose again. They should have lost the last 2 games they won. Before this 6 game streak they had a 5 gm losing streak...a solid team does not do that.

 

I can't state how much I feel Sori being outa the lineup helps the team...now if only someone would send Miles to Japan, or Hades or anywhere!