Breaking Down

[Rob]

I'm bored... adjusted batting lines for everybody!

 

For those of you who aren't aware, the process is simple. Most players put up a batting average on balls in play (in other words... batting average on an at bat that doesnt end in a strikeout or a home run) that is roughly equal to their line drive percentage plus one hundred and twenty points. There are, of course, some exceptions to this rule... but we don't have any players fast or slow enough to really stand out in that light. As such, most discrepancy in their BABIP and their expected BABIP can be chalked up mostly to luck (either good or bad). As such, it's pretty easy to calculate how many more or less hits a player has than you would expect, and recalculate their line accordingly. Let's see how our offense has done. (Looking at all position players with more than 50 PA... so basically just leaving out Freel and Gathright). Just doing the starters right now... will update with the bench later.

 

Player - Geovany Soto

Actual Line - .220/.329/.386

Expected Line - .269/.370/.451

Comments - His sophomore slump is grossly overstated. He's a fine young catcher who's just had terrible luck this year.

 

Player - Derrek Lee

Actual Line - .295/.378/.552

Expected Line - .286/.370/.540

Comments - Pretty close to his expected line... looks like he's had an extra 3 or 4 hits drop in.

 

Player - Mike Fontenot

Actual Line - .225/.293/.380

Expected Line - .245/.311/.407

Comments - I covered this in the Jeff Baker thread, but Fontenot has had both bad luck and a significant slump. His line drive percentage for the season is 16.7%. His career percentage is about 19.8%. Whether the slump is all on him, or simply random variation because of the relatively small sample size is an interesting question... but he's certainly a candidate for a significant rebound.

 

Player - Ryan Theriot

Actual Line - .298/.349/.408

Expected Line - .290/.342/.399

Comments - 3 or 4 extra hits have dropped in. Nothing significant.

 

Player - Aramis Ramirez

Actual Line - .322/.393/.538

Expected Line - .330/.400/.548

Comments - Missed out on 1 or 2 hits. It's a shame he's been injured so much, as he's having an excellent season.

 

Player - Alfonso Soriano

Actual Line - .243/.303/.425

Expected Line - .261/.320/.449

Comments - Looks like he's missing about 8 or 9 hits. That hurts, obviously... but the real thing hurting him is the drop off in his HR/FB rate. He's at 10.9% this year... and that number usually floats around 15 or 16%.

 

Player - Kosuke Fukudome

Actual Line - .272/.390/.462

Expected Line - .314/.425/.523

Comments - Wow... I did not realize Fukudome had upped his line drive percentage to a whopping 25%. He's been robbed of about 15 hits and changed what should be an MVP caliber season from a CF into just a very, very good year.

 

Player - Milton Bradley

Actual Line - .259/.390/.389

Expected Line - .267/.396/.398

Comments - Power Outage. 10.4% HR/FB ratio this year... normally much higher. Having a good year despite the missing home runs... but it makes it harder to justify his contract. Another excellent candidate for a bounceback.

 

Edit:

 

Bench players:

 

Player - Koyie Hill

Actual Line - .223/.296/.318

Expected Line - .225/.298/.321

Comments - Dead on.

 

Player - Micah Hoffpauir

Actual Line - .233/.280/.422

Expected Line - .284/.327/.488

Comments - This looks a whole heck of a lot more like what we expected from him...

 

Player - Reed Johnson

Actual Line - .252/.327/.395

Expected Line - .266/.340/.413

Comments - Pretty darn close.

 

Player - Jake Fox

Actual Line - .292/.345/.528

Expected Line - .291/.344/.527

Comments - Dead on.

 

Player - Aaron Miles

Actual Line - .182/.220/.245

Expected Line - .281/.315/.379

Comments - A LD% over 20 and a batting average below the mendoza line? Yeah... he's had some terrible luck. Still, I hate him.

 

Player - Andres Blanco

Actual Line - .237/.297/.323

Expected Line - .265/.323/.358

Comments - Also quite unlucky with the Royals in 2005 and 2006, there may be reason to believe he's got just enough in his bat to make himself a useful player on account of his glove.

 

Player - Jeff Baker

Actual Line - .343/.395/.557

Expected Line - .266/.324/.448

Comments - Our first example of a player vastly outperforming his expected line, Jeff has done quite well... but he's been pretty lucky. When you adjust his and Fontenot's lines, you start to see a pretty nice platoon forming instead of deluding ourselves into thinking Baker is our starting 2B 150 games next year.

 

Player - Bobby Scales

Actual Line - .241/.333/.466

Expected Line - .236/.328/.458

Comments - A difference of less than half a hit.

 

Player - Sam Fuld

Actual Line - .318/.412/.432

Expected Line - .453/.528/.615

Comments - Yeah... his LD% is over 40 right now. That is so far beyond unsustainable it isn't even funny. But he has been unlucky to the tune of about 6 hits already.

Edited August 19, 2009 by Rob

[gflore34]

Soto' numbers are unbelievable, it seems like every time he's smoked the ball its right at someone. Last night was a prime example, he crushed that ball (think it was 3rd), if he pulled slightly would have probably been a bases clearing double.

[imb]

Player - Kosuke Fukudome

Actual Line - .272/.390/.462

Expected Line - .314/.425/.523

Comments - Wow... I did not realize Fukudome had upped his line drive percentage to a whopping 25%. He's been robbed of about 15 hits and changed what should be an MVP caliber season from a CF into just a very, very good year.

 

Yowza

[MWV]

I expected this thread to be full of sobbing.

[Rob]

I expected this thread to be full of sobbing.

 

When you realize the years that Soto and Fukudome should be having were it not for them hitting the ball right at defenders, you very well may.

[dew1679666265]

Player - Derrek Lee

Actual Line - .295/.378/.552

Expected Line - .286/.370/.540

Comments - Pretty close to his expected line... looks like he's had an extra 3 or 4 hits drop in.

 

I know the chances of him regressing are still there for next season, but it's a good sign to see that Lee's great season hasn't been largely due to getting lucky.

 

Maybe it bodes well for him continuing to be good/very good next year.

 

Player - Kosuke Fukudome

Actual Line - .272/.390/.462

Expected Line - .314/.425/.523

Comments - Wow... I did not realize Fukudome had upped his line drive percentage to a whopping 25%. He's been robbed of about 15 hits and changed what should be an MVP caliber season from a CF into just a very, very good year.

 

I remember he was getting extremely unlucky in the early/mid parts of the season and that accounted for most of his struggles. Despite his age, this signing is looking very good right now.

 

Player - Milton Bradley

Actual Line - .259/.390/.389

Expected Line - .267/.396/.398

Comments - Power Outage. 10.4% HR/FB ratio this year... normally much higher. Having a good year despite the missing home runs... but it makes it harder to justify his contract. Another excellent candidate for a bounceback.

 

If he can continue this OBP level for the next two seasons, he may be overpaid but at least he'll be productive. Hopefully some power will return next year.

[UMFan83]

But...but...the Cubs are the luckiest team in baseball.

[nick23]

Just a question becauese I'm not very educated on the subject but where does good luck play into all of this? I would assume that bad luck and good luck come close to equaling out over the course of a season. Is that where the 120 points come into play?

[dew1679666265]

Just a question becauese I'm not very educated on the subject but where does good luck play into all of this? I would assume that bad luck and good luck come close to equaling out over the course of a season. Is that where the 120 points come into play?

 

Most of the difference between Rob's "actual line" and "expected line" is luck. For instance, Soto and Fontenot have been extremely unlucky this season. Meaning they've hit the ball hard, but it's gone right at defenders. Players in those situations are good bets to improve either later in the season or the next year. Likewise, players who don't hit the ball particularly hard but have it fall in nonetheless are getting lucky and, thus, are not good bets to continue that production for an extended period of time.

 

Luck doesn't always even out over the course of a season, but sometimes it does.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I would assume that bad luck and good luck come close to equaling out over the course of a season.

 

Quite often, it does not.

 

Examples of good luck would be guys like Jason Bartlett or Matt Kemp. Even with abnormally high LD%, they're still exceeding their expected BABIP by quite a bit.

[jersey cubs fan]

Just a question becauese I'm not very educated on the subject but where does good luck play into all of this? I would assume that bad luck and good luck come close to equaling out over the course of a season. Is that where the 120 points come into play?

 

Most of the difference between Rob's "actual line" and "expected line" is luck. For instance, Soto and Fontenot have been extremely unlucky this season. Meaning they've hit the ball hard, but it's gone right at defenders. Players in those situations are good bets to improve either later in the season or the next year. Likewise, players who don't hit the ball particularly hard but have it fall in nonetheless are getting lucky and, thus, are not good bets to continue that production for an extended period of time.

 

Luck doesn't always even out over the course of a season, but sometimes it does.

 

How lucky was Soto last year?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just a question becauese I'm not very educated on the subject but where does good luck play into all of this? I would assume that bad luck and good luck come close to equaling out over the course of a season. Is that where the 120 points come into play?

 

Most of the difference between Rob's "actual line" and "expected line" is luck. For instance, Soto and Fontenot have been extremely unlucky this season. Meaning they've hit the ball hard, but it's gone right at defenders. Players in those situations are good bets to improve either later in the season or the next year. Likewise, players who don't hit the ball particularly hard but have it fall in nonetheless are getting lucky and, thus, are not good bets to continue that production for an extended period of time.

 

Luck doesn't always even out over the course of a season, but sometimes it does.

 

How lucky was Soto last year?

 

21% LD%, .332 BABIP

 

A little lucky, especially for his speed. But on the other hand he didn't hit a ton of groundballs or infield flies, so there's not much about his 2008 that was flukish.

[MWV]

I expected this thread to be full of sobbing.

 

When you realize the years that Soto and Fukudome should be having were it not for them hitting the ball right at defenders, you very well may.

 

Its funny, before I looked at this thread I was actually rather pleased with Fukudome's production for the season. These revalations are at once encouraging and frustrating.

[MSG T]

Good work, Rob.

 

Although, when I saw the thread title my first thought was... oh crap, who's hurt now?

[chuckywang]

But...but...the Cubs are the luckiest team in baseball.

 

Says who?

[Rob]

Just a question becauese I'm not very educated on the subject but where does good luck play into all of this? I would assume that bad luck and good luck come close to equaling out over the course of a season. Is that where the 120 points come into play?

 

The crux of it is this... you are extremely likely to get a hit on a line drive... not very likely at all to get a hit on a ground ball... and very very rarely will get a hit on a fly ball. You don't need math to know that... but the numbers bear it out. There's a long and complicated mathematical answer to why batting average on balls in play works out to be about .120 points higher than your LD%, but it's not really necessary to understand... It's a generally accepted rule of thumb in sabermetric circles.

 

As to luck equaling out... it always tries to. It takes time though, and a full season isn't always enough time. I think if you look at players who have run out there for 20 seasons, you'd find very little variation on the number... 10 season players, more variation... 1 season, a decent amount... months or weeks can give huuuge variations.

 

It's encouraging to note than none of our starters have had exceptionally good luck to this point... but if I had to guess I'd imagine you'd see some of our bench players exhibit it (planning on posting those numbers shortly). But players like that certainly exist... Joe Mauer is having this historic season in part because his BABIP is .185 points higher than his LD%. Even in his other batting champion years, he didn't get close to that. He was .115 points over in 2006 and .116 points over last year.

[Roast]

Player - Kosuke Fukudome

Actual Line - .272/.390/.462

Expected Line - .314/.425/.523

Comments - Wow... I did not realize Fukudome had upped his line drive percentage to a whopping 25%. He's been robbed of about 15 hits and changed what should be an MVP caliber season from a CF into just a very, very good year.

 

Yowza

Seriously. Holy crap. I knew Fukudome was hitting the ball pretty well and should probably being doing a bit better than he is. But jeez, that's kinda crazy.

[Exile on Waveland]

Oh, how I wish I had faith the actual Cubs organization was doing this sort of analysis.

[Rob]

Bench players up.

 

Really, it looks like our offense has been somewhat unlucky on the whole this year... though it's very interesting to see how many players were almost dead on. Of course, that's just in regards to what happens after we put the ball in play... you can make a whole different argument about who is over and under performing based on preseason expectations.

[wade]

Just wanna say this is a great thread and contains the kind of posting that brought me here a long time ago.

 

Carry on.

[The Logan]

I feel/am stupid... how did you come up with their expected lines? I read that first paragraph like a dozen times and I recognize that it discusses LD%, BABIP and what not, but your conclusions include none of those numbers, just AVG/OBP/SLG... are you using BP's projections with the expected line? Is this based off last year's numbers? What? I feel like I'm missing something that's so obvious it doesn't need to be mentioned, but I'm just not seeing it. Not trying to be a douche I'm just trying ot understand how you came up with AVG/OBP/SLG expected lines based on BABIP and LD%

[RynoRules]

Just wanna say this is a great thread and contains the kind of posting that brought me here a long time ago.

 

Carry on.

 

Seconded.

[Rob]

I feel/am stupid... how did you come up with their expected lines? I read that first paragraph like a dozen times and I recognize that it discusses LD%, BABIP and what not, but your conclusions include none of those numbers, just AVG/OBP/SLG... are you using BP's projections with the expected line? Is this based off last year's numbers? What? I feel like I'm missing something that's so obvious it doesn't need to be mentioned, but I'm just not seeing it. Not trying to be a douche I'm just trying ot understand how you came up with AVG/OBP/SLG expected lines based on BABIP and LD%

 

I'll clarify a bit, just for you.

 

The process isn't hard. Imagine for a moment you know how many ABs a player has, and their batting average... but you want to know how many hits they had. You simply multiply them together and voila! Well, we're doing the same thing... multiplying the expected batting average on balls in play (which is LD% + .120) by the number of balls in play. That gives you the expected number of hits in that situation.

 

So now you have the right number of hits... you just have to figure out how to add the missing ones back in to the players actual line. Since all I'm trying to do in this situation is neutralize luck (and not bring their career lines into the equation at all), I simply add the hits back in the same ratio of singles, doubles, and triples they already had this season.

 

There are two routes to go from here. Obviously, these numbers are going to be bringing back fractions... so you could either round them off and give the whole line, or just calculate AVG, OBP, and SLUG as is. Since these expected lines are supposed to read as a probability, it's more accurate to just straight out calculate the slash stats.

Edited August 20, 2009 by Rob

[Rob]

And thanks for the kind words guys.

[The Logan]

I'll clarify a bit, just for you.

 

The process isn't hard. Imagine for a moment you know how many ABs a player has, and their batting average... but you want to know how many hits they had. You simply multiply them together and voila! Well, we're doing the same thing... multiplying the expected batting average on balls in play (which is LD% + .120) by the number of balls in play. That gives you the expected number of hits in that situation.

 

That flipped the light switch to on. Thank you for bringing me out of the dark. Now I feel even more dumb, lol. Nice work, btw, as everyone has said.