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Re: 5/19: Cubs (Lilly) at Cardinals (Pineiro): In play: Out(s)

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TruffleShuffle Cooperstown

TruffleShuffle

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38 pitches through 4

 

pineiro doesn't really walk people. to beat him you're going to have to get hits, and his pinch count is going to be low if nobody is getting hits. i like working the count too, but look at theriot's AB - he took the first pitch for a strike and the second pitch was going to be a strike. if the guy is just throwing everything over the plate, there's no point in just standing there and putting yourself in an 0-2 hole.

Sammy Sofa GOAT

Sammy Sofa

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted (edited)
38 pitches through 4

 

pineiro doesn't really walk people. to beat him you're going to have to get hits, and his pinch count is going to be low if nobody is getting hits. i like working the count too, but look at theriot's AB - he took the first pitch for a strike and the second pitch was going to be a strike. if the guy is just throwing everything over the plate, there's no point in just standing there and putting yourself in an 0-2 hole.

 

Exactly. He's basically chucking everything over the plate. If you don't swing he's getting you out anyways. I appreciate your actual analysis and logic here, Truffle. I can only assume it's going to fall on deaf ears.

 

Fontenot with an opposite field double!

Edited by Sammy Sofa
TruffleShuffle Cooperstown

TruffleShuffle

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted (edited)
38 pitches through 4

 

pineiro doesn't really walk people. to beat him you're going to have to get hits, and his pinch count is going to be low if nobody is getting hits. i like working the count too, but look at theriot's AB - he took the first pitch for a strike and the second pitch was going to be a strike. if the guy is just throwing everything over the plate, there's no point in just standing there and putting yourself in an 0-2 hole.

 

Exactly. He's basically chucking everything over the plate. If you don't swing he's getting you out anyways. I appreciate your actual analysis and logic here, Truffle. I can only assume it's going to fall on deaf ears.

 

Fontenot with an opposite field double!

 

to reinforce my point, i will refer people to this article

 

Lines with "action pitches" on each count:

First pitch: .338/.344/.547

0-1 count: .317/.326/.485

1-0 count: .339/.340/.563

2-0 count: .351/.351/.625

1-1 count: .325/.330/.512

1-2 count: .177/.185/.263

2-1 count: .337/.338/.554

3-0 count: .390/.958/.780

2-2 count: .194/.199/.299

3-1 count: .355/.691/.638

3-2 count: .229/.468/.381

 

so yes, the cubs can take more pitches, but when the pitcher is throwing just about everything over the plate on the first and second pitches, they're just going to put themselves in bad counts that result in defensive swings and outs. the problem isn't swinging too early in the count, it's not getting good enough swings on hittable pitches.

Edited by TruffleShuffle

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