Lou: Fukudome Penciled in at 2-Spot in Linuep

[Bull]

I think the reason people think that is because he's 29 and doesn't appear to have a whole lot more physical ability/talent to build more on.

 

What more does he need to build on? Theriot is cheap and gives you above average offensive production at SS. .

 

Defense. Theriot might give you slightly above average offense for the shortstop position, but well below average defense.

 

that's wrong. he's not well below average defensively.

 

Nor is he slightly above average offensively. OPS+ under of 72 and 93 in his only two full seasons.

[Derwood]

I think the reason people think that is because he's 29 and doesn't appear to have a whole lot more physical ability/talent to build more on.

 

What more does he need to build on? Theriot is cheap and gives you above average offensive production at SS. .

 

Defense. Theriot might give you slightly above average offense for the shortstop position, but well below average defense.

 

that's wrong. he's not well below average defensively.

 

Nor is he slightly above average offensively. OPS+ under of 72 and 93 in his only two full seasons.

 

that's due to his low SLG.

[CubColtPacer]

I think the reason people think that is because he's 29 and doesn't appear to have a whole lot more physical ability/talent to build more on.

 

What more does he need to build on? Theriot is cheap and gives you above average offensive production at SS. .

 

Defense. Theriot might give you slightly above average offense for the shortstop position, but well below average defense.

 

that's wrong. he's not well below average defensively.

 

Nor is he slightly above average offensively. OPS+ under of 72 and 93 in his only two full seasons.

 

They said slightly above average for the SS position. An OPS+ of 93 might be lower than the average player overall, but Theriot was 31 points better in OPS than the average major league SS last year because he was 61 points better in OBP than that average SS.

 

Offense has to be broken down by position just as much as defense does or else the people in the harder positions (C, SS, 2B, CF) will never get their value to the team properly evaluated since 80% of the hitters at those positions are below average when compared to the league as a whole and not just their positions.

[Cubswin11]

If Kosuke struggles early, I wonder how long Hendry takes to consider bringing Edmonds back or trade for someone?

[mlarner]

If Kosuke struggles early, I wonder how long Hendry takes to consider bringing Edmonds back or trade for someone?

 

He has been struggling at the plate in the WBC, and did not look very good in CF tonight on a couple of different balls.

[Bull]

I think the reason people think that is because he's 29 and doesn't appear to have a whole lot more physical ability/talent to build more on.

 

What more does he need to build on? Theriot is cheap and gives you above average offensive production at SS. .

 

Defense. Theriot might give you slightly above average offense for the shortstop position, but well below average defense.

 

that's wrong. he's not well below average defensively.

 

Nor is he slightly above average offensively. OPS+ under of 72 and 93 in his only two full seasons.

 

They said slightly above average for the SS position. An OPS+ of 93 might be lower than the average player overall, but Theriot was 31 points better in OPS than the average major league SS last year because he was 61 points better in OBP than that average SS.

 

Offense has to be broken down by position just as much as defense does or else the people in the harder positions (C, SS, 2B, CF) will never get their value to the team properly evaluated since 80% of the hitters at those positions are below average when compared to the league as a whole and not just their positions.

 

I totally understand the concept...just failed to read the previous post and missed "for the shortstop position"

[17 Seconds]

I think the reason people think that is because he's 29 and doesn't appear to have a whole lot more physical ability/talent to build more on.

 

What more does he need to build on? Theriot is cheap and gives you above average offensive production at SS. .

 

Defense. Theriot might give you slightly above average offense for the shortstop position, but well below average defense.

 

that's wrong. he's not well below average defensively.

 

based on what? highly questionable defensive metrics that are supposed to be really good but are always wildly inconsistent? defense is one of those things where you have to attempt to judge it for yourself, as hard and inconclusive as that may be. since theriot plays for the cubs and i watch the majority of the games, i can say with pretty good confidence that he is well below average. he has very poor range and a very poor arm.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Theriot has poor range and a weak arm, but he has good instincts, sure hands, and an accurate arm. Defensive metrics might overstate him(although I can't say I'm too fond of the "there's some anomalies, so it's all useless!" strategem for evaluating metrics) but if they do it's not by a whole lot. I'd say he's average to slightly below average defensively. The problem is, like his offense, there's not much room for improvement. He can't improve his physical gifts to gain arm strength or range like someone like Cedeno could work on focus to improve his consistency and throwing accuracy.

[Soul]

I love how all the pseudo-coaches/scouts think he can't possibly have success without changing the swing that he has used successfully his whole life.

 

Just because it doesn't look pretty to us doesn't mean it's the reason he struggled.

 

from the limited video i saw from japan, it didn't look like he stepped in the bucket nearly as much when he was playing there. not that he didn't open up his front shoulder, but he opened up less and still stayed closed enough to drive the ball. maybe i am crazy, but i have a hard time seeing him be successful with the approach he was using the second half of last season.

 

Me neither. If he proves me wrong, so be it.

[jersey cubs fan]

They said slightly above average for the SS position. An OPS+ of 93 might be lower than the average player overall, but Theriot was 31 points better in OPS than the average major league SS last year because he was 61 points better in OBP than that average SS.

 

Offense has to be broken down by position just as much as defense does or else the people in the harder positions (C, SS, 2B, CF) will never get their value to the team properly evaluated since 80% of the hitters at those positions are below average when compared to the league as a whole and not just their positions.

 

And just because he did that last year, that doesn't make him an above average hitter today. You can't define players simply by their previous season. Theriot doesn't give you a .380 OBP, he did it last year, but that doesn't guarantee he does it this year. In 2007 he was bottom of the barrel.

[CubColtPacer]

They said slightly above average for the SS position. An OPS+ of 93 might be lower than the average player overall, but Theriot was 31 points better in OPS than the average major league SS last year because he was 61 points better in OBP than that average SS.

 

Offense has to be broken down by position just as much as defense does or else the people in the harder positions (C, SS, 2B, CF) will never get their value to the team properly evaluated since 80% of the hitters at those positions are below average when compared to the league as a whole and not just their positions.

 

And just because he did that last year, that doesn't make him an above average hitter today. You can't define players simply by their previous season. Theriot doesn't give you a .380 OBP, he did it last year, but that doesn't guarantee he does it this year. In 2007 he was bottom of the barrel.

 

That's true, although bottom of the barrel is really exaggerating it (a .672 OPS was still better than 9 other teams that season and 1 point off a 10th). Theriot was definitely below average though that year.

 

Last year, Theriot's production at SS was better than 20 teams. Even accounting for the fact that a couple of teams had their backups probably pull down their numbers of their starters that might have been above Theriot, that still leaves him as above average. It especially is so when you consider that he's 40 to 50 points better in OBP than other SS's around that production level.

 

Theriot would have to come close to repeating last year to be above average. A .290/.350/.355 line would put him at average though. It would be a few points light on the OPS, but would make up for it because of the above average OBP.

[jersey cubs fan]

They said slightly above average for the SS position. An OPS+ of 93 might be lower than the average player overall, but Theriot was 31 points better in OPS than the average major league SS last year because he was 61 points better in OBP than that average SS.

 

Offense has to be broken down by position just as much as defense does or else the people in the harder positions (C, SS, 2B, CF) will never get their value to the team properly evaluated since 80% of the hitters at those positions are below average when compared to the league as a whole and not just their positions.

 

And just because he did that last year, that doesn't make him an above average hitter today. You can't define players simply by their previous season. Theriot doesn't give you a .380 OBP, he did it last year, but that doesn't guarantee he does it this year. In 2007 he was bottom of the barrel.

 

That's true, although bottom of the barrel is really exaggerating it (a .672 OPS was still better than 9 other teams that season and 1 point off a 10th). Theriot was definitely below average though that year.

 

Last year, Theriot's production at SS was better than 20 teams. Even accounting for the fact that a couple of teams had their backups probably pull down their numbers of their starters that might have been above Theriot, that still leaves him as above average. It especially is so when you consider that he's 40 to 50 points better in OBP than other SS's around that production level.

 

Theriot would have to come close to repeating last year to be above average. A .290/.350/.355 line would put him at average though.

 

Cubs shortstops were worst in the league, and once Theriot took over the SS job his numbers were nearly identical to total Cubs shortstop numbers in 2007.

[CubColtPacer]

They said slightly above average for the SS position. An OPS+ of 93 might be lower than the average player overall, but Theriot was 31 points better in OPS than the average major league SS last year because he was 61 points better in OBP than that average SS.

 

Offense has to be broken down by position just as much as defense does or else the people in the harder positions (C, SS, 2B, CF) will never get their value to the team properly evaluated since 80% of the hitters at those positions are below average when compared to the league as a whole and not just their positions.

 

And just because he did that last year, that doesn't make him an above average hitter today. You can't define players simply by their previous season. Theriot doesn't give you a .380 OBP, he did it last year, but that doesn't guarantee he does it this year. In 2007 he was bottom of the barrel.

 

That's true, although bottom of the barrel is really exaggerating it (a .672 OPS was still better than 9 other teams that season and 1 point off a 10th). Theriot was definitely below average though that year.

 

Last year, Theriot's production at SS was better than 20 teams. Even accounting for the fact that a couple of teams had their backups probably pull down their numbers of their starters that might have been above Theriot, that still leaves him as above average. It especially is so when you consider that he's 40 to 50 points better in OBP than other SS's around that production level.

 

Theriot would have to come close to repeating last year to be above average. A .290/.350/.355 line would put him at average though.

 

Cubs shortstops were worst in the league, and once Theriot took over the SS job his numbers were nearly identical to total Cubs shortstop numbers in 2007.

 

Cubs SS's were the worst in the NL. Since players move leagues all the time and the sample size is so small it doesn't seem wise to eliminate half of your sample right off the top. Just to show the variability, in 07 only 2 out of the last 8 in SS production were in the NL, while in 08 4 out of the last 8 were.

 

And the only reason Theriot was not much better than the other SS's was because his hot streaks were when he was playing 2B and 3B Looking at his overall numbers from that year, he was good enough to be comparable or better than 4 NL teams that season (San Fransisco, Houston, Arizona, L.A.). That's well below average in the NL and below average in the overall majors.

[Soul]

So....I didn't realize Sutcliffe basically undressed Fukudome on the WBC broadcast last night.

 

I was doing my taxes :)

 

Ouch. Heard it over lunch. I'd love nothing more than for Fuku to come out this season and prove him, and me, and everyone else totally wrong.

[Mephistopheles]

That would make sense. Sutcliffe is a terrible baseball analyst.

[TruffleShuffle]

They said slightly above average for the SS position. An OPS+ of 93 might be lower than the average player overall, but Theriot was 31 points better in OPS than the average major league SS last year because he was 61 points better in OBP than that average SS.

 

Offense has to be broken down by position just as much as defense does or else the people in the harder positions (C, SS, 2B, CF) will never get their value to the team properly evaluated since 80% of the hitters at those positions are below average when compared to the league as a whole and not just their positions.

 

And just because he did that last year, that doesn't make him an above average hitter today. You can't define players simply by their previous season. Theriot doesn't give you a .380 OBP, he did it last year, but that doesn't guarantee he does it this year. In 2007 he was bottom of the barrel.

 

that's true, he certainly isn't a guarantee to produce as much as he did last season. that being said, his improvement last year was attributable to a change in his approach, where he tried to draw more walks, and when putting the ball in play, he tried to hit more line drives and ground balls rather than driving the ball into the outfield. this is a good approach for him and his BABIP of .340 was really not fluky last year. in fact, what was fluky was his .289 BABIP in 2007, given his LD/FB/GB rates that season.

 

again, my point wasn't that he's a great player, but that he gave the cubs average or maybe even slightly above average performance for a starting mlb shortstop in 2008, while other major league teams were dumping several million on guys like julio lugo or edgar renteria or orlando cabrera. given that the cubs are paying 7 guys a combined $100 million this season, it's imperative that they get this sort of production at a cheap price from a few spots on the roster. i find it admirable that theriot has maximized his strengths to the point where he can give the cubs this sort of production.

[cubbinalltheway]

If Kosuke struggles early, I wonder how long Hendry takes to consider bringing Edmonds back or trade for someone?

it's looking like edmonds will certainly be around if that situation were to present itself.

 

i know the o's were rumored to be interested in jimmy earlier in the offseason, but that obviously didn't pan out........ have any other teams been rumored to have any interest at all? i haven't heard anything at all

[wrigley23]

Theriot needs to bat 8th.

 

why? Because he gets on base 50 pts higher & scores more runs than Soriano? The main measure of a leadoff hitter is runs scored. With 76 last year, he was near the bottom in MLB in runs scored for leadoff hitters. Why? Because he does not have a leadoff mentality at the plate. He has more of an rbi producing mentality.

[imb]

Derwood wrote

Theriot needs to bat 8th.

 

why? Because he gets on base 50 pts higher & scores more runs than Soriano? The main measure of a leadoff hitter is runs scored. With 76 last year, he was near the bottom in MLB in runs scored for leadoff hitters. Why? Because he does not have a leadoff mentality at the plate. He has more of an rbi producing mentality.

 

also because he missed 53 games

[SouthSideRyan]

Derwood wrote

Theriot needs to bat 8th.

 

why? Because he gets on base 50 pts higher & scores more runs than Soriano? The main measure of a leadoff hitter is runs scored. With 76 last year, he was near the bottom in MLB in runs scored for leadoff hitters. Why? Because he does not have a leadoff mentality at the plate. He has more of an rbi producing mentality.

 

WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Electron Blue]

Derwood wrote

Theriot needs to bat 8th.

 

why? Because he gets on base 50 pts higher & scores more runs than Soriano? The main measure of a leadoff hitter is runs scored. With 76 last year, he was near the bottom in MLB in runs scored for leadoff hitters. Why? Because he does not have a leadoff mentality at the plate. He has more of an rbi producing mentality.

 

IMB's point is more important, but also, saying that someone's mentality for run scoring is not good enough because it's an "rbi producing" mentality just sounds funny ;)

[CubColtPacer]

Derwood wrote

Theriot needs to bat 8th.

 

why? Because he gets on base 50 pts higher & scores more runs than Soriano? The main measure of a leadoff hitter is runs scored. With 76 last year, he was near the bottom in MLB in runs scored for leadoff hitters. Why? Because he does not have a leadoff mentality at the plate. He has more of an rbi producing mentality.

 

Actually, he wasn't. Out of the players with at least 250 plate apperances at leadoff, Soriano was 13th out of 29 in runs scored. He had more runs scored than these people with a leadoff mentality at the plate: Orlando Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins, Chone Figgins, David Dejesus. And that only is a list of the people who had around the same number of AB's or more than Soriano did.

 

 

Every person who finished higher than Soriano in runs also had more AB's than him (remember: this is only AB's and runs scored out of the leadoff spot. Runs scored when these players are hitting in other spots aren't counted).

 

Of course, the fact that Soriano had 2 big DP threats directly behind him (Theriot and Lee) didn't exactly help his run scoring ability either.

[17 Seconds]

so i've learned that

 

a) runs are the main measurement of a leadoff hitter

 

b) r + rbi = production (basic math)

 

i think ive finally got this sabr stuff down

[wrigley23]

Bleacherreport.com has Soriano 12th of 30 leadoff hitters & they sum him up pretty well:

 

Alfonso Soriano is not the typical lead-off hitter. He's a power hitter with speed who strikes out a lot and may be better suited as a clean-up hitter.

 

A former 40 HR/40 SB player, injuries have limited Soriano to more of a 20/20 player the past few seasons. His career .329 on-base percentage is extremely low for a lead-off batter, but he can put a team on the board early with one swing of the bat.

 

He also drives in between 80 and 100 runs, a huge number for a lead-off guy. He's virtually a lock to strikeout 130 times per year and have an on-base percentage of less than .350, and may actually move to the middle of the order this season.

 

If this was a list of best all around hitters, then Soriano would be much higher, but as a lead-off guy, he's only slightly above average, at best.

[17 Seconds]

lol bleacherreport

 

oh and this quote-

 

but as a lead-off guy, he's only slightly above average, at best.

 

should probably tell you that you shouldn't be reading anything on that site anymore