2009 Chicago Bears offseason

[Magnetic Curses]

[And rookie WR's outside of the first round typically do nothing of any substance. So he doesn't really need to know anything about them.

 

except one had a big year with cutler just last year.

 

Notice where I said TYPICALLY.

Just as relevant is the WR you drafted in the 3rd round last year (only 20+ picks higher) who couldn't get on the field and had 0 catches.

 

I liked Iglesias in college and he could be a nice player in the NFL. I'm not saying he can't do something this year. But if he's like most WR's drafted in a similar range, it will take him a couple years to develop and find his role.

Knox could end up being the steal of the draft and make all teams look stupid for passing on him through 4 rounds. But more likely he'll be similar to the other 10 really fast WR's drafted from small schools in rounds 5-7 every year.

 

we had a qb who was given 2 reads and little time to throw and was kyle orton.

[David]

Didn't Royal rip ish up while Marshall was hurt/suspended (can't remember which one.. if he was hurt from that odd accident with the McDonald's bag or if he just was suspended for beating up his girlfriend again) last year?

 

I'm pretty sure that's how he made a name for himself at first.

 

 

I know he at least had that one amazing game on national TV... I think it was MNF.

[David]

Packers fans are expecting a lot out of a defense that just changed it's entire scheme.

 

i don't see the league having much of a problem with the packers this year, really.

 

Heh, we'll see about that.

 

I like being under the radar. It worked in 2007 and I'm hoping it works again this year.

 

Heh, no kidding.

 

I think everyone in Green Bay has a quiet confidence about this year.

 

they are better than last years record and they are healthy. I haven't seen too many knowledgeable football fans count the Packers out this year. The only question is the adjustment to the 3-4 scheme.

 

I think that's a pretty massive question. How often do teams completely change systems and have success right away? Especially when you switch to a system that needs a specific type of personnel and the team hasn't had a chance to make all the changes it needs to make to its roster...

[David]

From the Football Outsiders Almanac...

 

For the Pats in the recent past, it’s been all about the shotgun formation. In 2007, New England became the first NFL team to run the shotgun formation on more than 50 percent of their plays, and that trend continued in 2008. Our data shows that teams are more effective and efficient in the shotgun – over the last two years, teams have averaged 5.9 yards per play from the shotgun, and 5.1 under center. The differences between New England’s DVOA under shotgun and not were pretty significant. Cassel threw 433 passes out of the shotgun and amassed a DYAR [Defense-Adjusted Yards over Replacement] of 531, and a DVOA of 7.8%. Under center, he threw 124 passes for a DYAR of 124 and a DVOA of 2.2%. Should Matt Gutierrez or Kevin O’Connell have to take the reins for any length of time this season, they may be in a situation like Denver used to have with running backs – it’s just that Brady is Terrell Davis, and the other guys are Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson."

 

 

I'm kinda hoping Kruetz gets over his shotgun-phobia and we use it a bit more this year. Cutler seemed to use it a good amount in Denver, too.

 

That and that rollout he loves to do.

[Splendid_Splinter]

I do agree that the Bears WR will have a tough time vs. GB. Granted, we all know the Bears QB situation last year, but in 2 games vs. GB last year, Bears WRs caught 7 passes for 88 yards, 36 of those yards came on a catch by Rashied Davis. Unless GBs corners lose another step (which is possible), they are probably too physical for the Bears small and inexperienced WRs.

The Bears offense should improve a bit simply with the presence of Jay Cutler rather than Kyle Orton at quarterback. As I mentioned in my one earlier post Al Harris will probably continue to decline, but the zone defense should help slow just how much this affects the overall defense. Even if he does fall off a cliff there is always Tramon Williams to step in for him. From everything I've seen Dom Capers is still planning to use press coverage, maybe not as often, so I don't think the defensive backs' physicality will change all that much.

 

That being said, I think the Bears will be able to run against the developing 3-4 defense of the Packers. I think Cutler will be able to hit the TEs and RBs at will, as Orton pretty much did in the games last year.

This is the part that I really disagree with you about. First I expect that the Packers will be a little more on their heals now that the Bears may actually have a passing game that could become a threat. With that said I think the move to the 3-4 should negate most of that. The Packers' front seven has bulked up from last season, and their first string defensive line looks to be better against the run this season. Even last season the Bears' running game didn't do that well against what was an absolutely mediocre Packers' run defense rushing for only 157 yards on 46 carries, an average of 3.41 YPC.

 

Also last season Greg Olsen only totaled 94 yards on 9 catches, and even Matt Forte only had 68 yards on 8 catches. That is hardly hitting them at will considering how great of targets both of them are supposed to be. Again Cutler should help to improve their numbers, but I also think that the Packers will be better suited to stop them. Last year the man coverage the Packers ran put the defense into situations that played into both of their strengths. Asking a mediocre Brady Poppinga or a gimpy A.J. Hawk to cover either of them did the Packers' defense absolutely no favors. Now with zone coverage they should still be able to get their yards, but the Packers can create coverage schemes so that their LBs aren't nearly as mismatched as they were last season.

Overall, I don't know what to expect from the Packers. I could see them winning anywhere from 5 games to 10.They really have a tough finish to the schedule, going to Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Arizona, with Baltimore going into Lambeau in the last 5 weeks.

I have to agree with you about these statements. While I don't think they will be as bad as you do, the win amount I'm expecting is somewhere between 7 and 11. The nice thing about the schedule is the first eight games aren't against many great teams, the only exceptions being the Bears to start the season and the Vikings twice. This will give the defense a chance to gel against weaker competition. They can also have a little more leeway with the amount of mistakes they can get away with since they won't be playing that many upper echelon teams. At the end of the season they won't be that fortunate. I am hoping by that time the mental mistakes are minimal and they become more comfortable with the defense overall.

[Soul]

Packers fans are expecting a lot out of a defense that just changed it's entire scheme.

 

i don't see the league having much of a problem with the packers this year, really.

 

Heh, we'll see about that.

 

I like being under the radar. It worked in 2007 and I'm hoping it works again this year.

 

And I like the Bears being doubted by people. Typically, they seem to do much better when people are criticizing them than when people say all is well and they'll be great.

 

Bring on more Donald Driver comments.

[RedFlash]

And I like the Bears being doubted by people. Typically, they seem to do much better when people are criticizing them than when people say all is well and they'll be great.

 

Bring on more Donald Driver comments.

 

I agree it seem to me that the Bears thrived when they had the "us .v. the world mentality" like they had in 2006. When the Bears were hungry they were arguably the best team in football. I expect that hunger to be there this yr considering how close they were to making the playoffs last yr.

 

Again it's going to be a "black and blue" battle for the division crown this yr between Bears/Vikes/Packers. Right now, I don't see a "favorite" for the division crown yet, cause all three teams are about the same as a whole next. (Note: even if the Vikes do sign Favre, that doesn't really improve their team).

[Soul]

And I like the Bears being doubted by people. Typically, they seem to do much better when people are criticizing them than when people say all is well and they'll be great.

 

Bring on more Donald Driver comments.

 

I agree it seem to me that the Bears thrived when they had the "us .v. the world mentality" like they had in 2006. When the Bears were hungry they were arguably the best team in football. I expect that hunger to be there this yr considering how close they were to making the playoffs last yr.

 

Again it's going to be a "black and blue" battle for the division crown this yr between Bears/Vikes/Packers. Right now, I don't see a "favorite" for the division crown yet, cause all three teams are about the same as a whole next. (Note: even if the Vikes do sign Favre, that doesn't really improve their team).

 

Then the Lions sneak up and win the divison with the miracle 12-4 season :lol: :pig:

[ELCABALLO45]

And I like the Bears being doubted by people. Typically, they seem to do much better when people are criticizing them than when people say all is well and they'll be great.

 

Bring on more Donald Driver comments.

 

I agree it seem to me that the Bears thrived when they had the "us .v. the world mentality" like they had in 2006. When the Bears were hungry they were arguably the best team in football. I expect that hunger to be there this yr considering how close they were to making the playoffs last yr.

 

Again it's going to be a "black and blue" battle for the division crown this yr between Bears/Vikes/Packers. Right now, I don't see a "favorite" for the division crown yet, cause all three teams are about the same as a whole next. (Note: even if the Vikes do sign Favre, that doesn't really improve their team).

 

Favre will take so many guys outta the box for AD its going to suck.

 

Favre with the Vikes = Vikings slight fav.

 

Without Favre = No fav.

[Keener98]

Favre with the Vikes doesnt make them the slight favorites. This isnt 25 yr old Brett Favre, its 40 yr old, coming off shoulder surgery, Brett Favre.

[ELCABALLO45]

IF healthy this is the Brett Favre that lead the Packers to a 13-3 record 2 years ago.

 

IF healthy this is the Brett Favre that before getting hurt last year had the Jets at 8-3.

 

Yes I know it wasn't all Brett Favre, but Thomas Jones would never of had a season he did last year without Favre. Yes I know the Jets defense was improved last year, but Minnesota's defense is better. All Favre is going to have to do is hand the ball to Peterson. And if they stack the box do what he did in 2007 and throw slants and dump passes. He is not gonna have to throw the ball 30+ times a game with Peterson in the backfield.

[RedFlash]

Yes I know it wasn't all Brett Favre, but Thomas Jones would never of had a season he did last year without Favre. Yes I know the Jets defense was improved last year, but Minnesota's defense is better. All Favre is going to have to do is hand the ball to Peterson. And if they stack the box do what he did in 2007 and throw slants and dump passes. He is not gonna have to throw the ball 30+ times a game with Peterson in the backfield.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneTh00.htm

 

Ah...he did in 2005 with Kyle Orton/Rex Grossman as his QB. Brett Favre didn't have any impact on Jones production last yr, no matter how you spin it. I mean he was better with Favre then he was with Pennington the yr before, but Favre didn't really have all that much impact on Jones. Not trying to start crap with you ELCaballo cause I think your a pretty cool cat despite being a fan of "the enemies" but Brett Favre has been declining every yr since 2004, and to think that if/when Favre signs with Minnesota means they are a slight favorite, I simply do not agree. Favre is living off his name at this point in his career. This is not a Favre that will lead the Vikings from a 10 win team they were last yr with no QB, to a 12-14 win team. Favre is simply not that player anymore. The Vikings would simply making a lateral move with Favre.

[hawkeyecub]

Yes I know it wasn't all Brett Favre, but Thomas Jones would never of had a season he did last year without Favre. Yes I know the Jets defense was improved last year, but Minnesota's defense is better. All Favre is going to have to do is hand the ball to Peterson. And if they stack the box do what he did in 2007 and throw slants and dump passes. He is not gonna have to throw the ball 30+ times a game with Peterson in the backfield.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneTh00.htm

 

Ah...he did in 2005 with Kyle Orton/Rex Grossman as his QB. Brett Favre didn't have any impact on Jones production last yr, no matter how you spin it. I mean he was better with Favre then he was with Pennington the yr before, but Favre didn't really have all that much impact on Jones. Not trying to start crap with you ELCaballo cause I think your a pretty cool cat despite being a fan of "the enemies" but Brett Favre has been declining every yr since 2004, and to think that if/when Favre signs with Minnesota means they are a slight favorite, I simply do not agree. Favre is living off his name at this point in his career. This is not a Favre that will lead the Vikings from a 10 win team they were last yr with no QB, to a 12-14 win team. Favre is simply not that player anymore. The Vikings would simply making a lateral move with Favre.

 

 

What?

 

First of all, in '05 Jones was a 27 year old back with one 200 carry season under his belt. Last year he was 30 years old back coming off 3 seasons where he averaged over 300 carries and had 240 the year before. If you can't see that and understand the diminished returns of RB's at 29, 30+ then you're clueless.

 

Secondly why are you saying Favre didn't have much impact when he improved his yards per carry by a full freaking yard, despite turning 30? How do you not see that? If you want to give credit to the o-line that's accurate but to say the QB had no difference is foolish.

 

The Favre debate has been discussed plenty here so there's no real point in getting into it again. All I'll say is look at his numbers before the shoulder injury last year and look at his numbers in '07 with the Packers. Last year he was in a completely new offense and didn't have a full camp to learn it. This year he would have the exact same offense he played his whole career and would presumably have a full camp. As far as the shoulder surgery there are not supposed to be any lasting problems once it's healed.

 

He's not the guy he was in his prime but he's a hell of an upgrade on the play the Vikings got from Frerotte and Tarvaris (until his last 4 games). I don't think you guys remember how bad Gus was last year. Worst case scenario is he gets hurt, it diminishes his play but he tries to keep his streak alive and play through it. Hopefully if he gets hurt again it's bad enough to knock him out.

I'm not giving the Vikings the division by any means, nor am I saying Favre will be a stud. I think the Vikings have the best team in the division outside of the QB position. I think Favre with this line, backfield and a couple weapons can be good enough to help shrink the gap currently at the QB position between the 3 teams.

[Sosa21MVP]

Favre fans are hilarious. That is all.

[Banedon]

Favre fans are hilarious. That is all.

 

If he sucks, it'll be blamed on him being hurt too. It's a no lose situation for them.

[Soul]

Favre fans are hilarious. That is all.

 

If he sucks, it'll be blamed on him being hurt too. It's a no lose situation for them.

 

I heard somewhere he said the pain hasn't gone away. That can't be a good sign.

[ELCABALLO45]

Im not a Favre fan, im a Packer fan. But I think its more hillarious watching Bear fans try to say this would not be a HUGE upgrade for the Vikings, and saying Favre is washed up.

[Derwood]

Im not a Favre fan, im a Packer fan. But I think its more hillarious watching Bear fans try to say this would not be a HUGE upgrade for the Vikings, and saying Favre is washed up.

 

he's had one decent season in the last four....I'd say he's done

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Im not a Favre fan, im a Packer fan. But I think its more hillarious watching Bear fans try to say this would not be a HUGE upgrade for the Vikings, and saying Favre is washed up.

 

In the last four seasons, he's had one where he met the very low standard of more TDs than INTs.

[ELCABALLO45]

Like I said hillarious

[David]

Yea.... it's just Bears fans who know Favre is washed up....

[ELCABALLO45]

But he's not... so...

[Hairyducked Idiot]

But he's not... so...

 

Even if we believe your argument that he's good when healthy, he's not healthy, so no problems there.

[manbearcub]

guys, he said himself he's not a farve fan.

[ELCABALLO45]

Eh, whatever.

 

If healthy Favre is a big upgrade over T-Jack/Sage. Everyone would (should) at least see that. But if you don't... Well ok.