How good is Vitters?

[A New Era]

I'm sorry if there is another thread I don't pay enough attention to this forum or our prospects. But his name came up in another thread and I was wondering how's he been doing in the minors. What's his ceiling do you think?

[Outshined_One]

Currently: He doesn't strike out or walk a whole lot. He's displayed good power in a limited amount of time. While his defense was initially a concern, he's worked very hard on correcting his flaws and the current consensus is that he will stick at 3B. Everyone seems very high on his attitude and approach to the game.

 

Down the Road: Two big things worry me. First, he has had some nagging injury issues. He's had problems with his hand that has caused him to miss time. The guy's not quite at "handle with care" status yet, but the early injuries are cause for concern. Second, while his K/BB suggests pretty good plate coverage, keep an eye on his plate discipline as he advances. If he's going up there with a hacker mentality, thinking he can foul off anything thrown his way, rather than take bad pitches, pitchers at more advanced levels will make him pay for it. Scouts seem to think he has a good idea of the strike zone, but it's hard to tell if they're a fan of his plate coverage or a fan of his eye for bad pitches. This guy comes to mind in the former regard. Here are his minor league numbers.

 

So, what do I think?

 

Ceiling: Aramis Ramirez

 

Floor: Jeff Francoeur at 3B.

[CubbieBum]

Currently: He doesn't strike out or walk a whole lot. He's displayed good power in a limited amount of time. While his defense was initially a concern, he's worked very hard on correcting his flaws and the current consensus is that he will stick at 3B. Everyone seems very high on his attitude and approach to the game.

 

Down the Road: Two big things worry me. First, he has had some nagging injury issues. He's had problems with his hand that has caused him to miss time. The guy's not quite at "handle with care" status yet, but the early injuries are cause for concern. Second, while his K/BB suggests pretty good plate coverage, keep an eye on his plate discipline as he advances. If he's going up there with a hacker mentality, thinking he can foul off anything thrown his way, rather than take bad pitches, pitchers at more advanced levels will make him pay for it. Scouts seem to think he has a good idea of the strike zone, but it's hard to tell if they're a fan of his plate coverage or a fan of his eye for bad pitches. This guy comes to mind in the former regard. Here are his minor league numbers.

 

So, what do I think?

 

Ceiling: Aramis Ramirez

 

Floor: Jeff Francoeur at 3B.

 

Floor has to be lower than that. Francoeur had a bad year last year but is still a good young player. No he doesn't have disapline but had a good average up until last year (I know OBP is more important but average still counts for something). He has good power and plays GG defense. If at worst Vitters is a career .270, 20 hr, GG defender I don't know many teams that wouldn't be very please with that. His floor is some guy no one remembers because he bombed out once he got to AAA/Majors. I don't think Vitters will but he could.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Currently: He doesn't strike out or walk a whole lot. He's displayed good power in a limited amount of time. While his defense was initially a concern, he's worked very hard on correcting his flaws and the current consensus is that he will stick at 3B. Everyone seems very high on his attitude and approach to the game.

 

Down the Road: Two big things worry me. First, he has had some nagging injury issues. He's had problems with his hand that has caused him to miss time. The guy's not quite at "handle with care" status yet, but the early injuries are cause for concern. Second, while his K/BB suggests pretty good plate coverage, keep an eye on his plate discipline as he advances. If he's going up there with a hacker mentality, thinking he can foul off anything thrown his way, rather than take bad pitches, pitchers at more advanced levels will make him pay for it. Scouts seem to think he has a good idea of the strike zone, but it's hard to tell if they're a fan of his plate coverage or a fan of his eye for bad pitches. This guy comes to mind in the former regard. Here are his minor league numbers.

 

So, what do I think?

 

Ceiling: Aramis Ramirez

 

Floor: Jeff Francoeur at 3B.

 

Floor has to be lower than that. Francoeur had a bad year last year but is still a good young player. No he doesn't have disapline but had a good average up until last year (I know OBP is more important but average still counts for something). He has good power and plays GG defense. If at worst Vitters is a career .270, 20 hr, GG defender I don't know many teams that wouldn't be very please with that. His floor is some guy no one remembers because he bombed out once he got to AAA/Majors. I don't think Vitters will but he could.

 

Floor: Gary Scott

[Bear Cub]

Ceiling..Jeff Cirillo

Floor..Kevin Orie

[RedFlash]

Ceiling..Jeff Cirillo

Floor..Kevin Orie

 

Pessimistic, ain't we?

 

Ceiling: Mike Lowell

Floor: Edwin Encarnacion

[SweetZombieJesus]

Ceiling: Scott Brocius

Floor: Alex Rodriguez

 

Seriously though

 

Ceiling: Aramis Ramirez

Floor: Ryan Harvey

 

Likely outcome: Poor man's Russell Branyan

[Guest]

Ceiling: Scott Brocius

Floor: Alex Rodriguez

 

Seriously though

 

Ceiling: Aramis Ramirez

Floor: Ryan Harvey

 

Likely outcome: Poor man's Russell Branyan

 

He has far superior plate coverage and doesn't strike out enough to be anywhere near Harvey or Branyan. He also is able to recognize offspeed junk he can't handle.

 

Also, Vitters doesn't have the true power those two had.

[SweetZombieJesus]

Ceiling: Scott Brocius

Floor: Alex Rodriguez

 

Seriously though

 

Ceiling: Aramis Ramirez

Floor: Ryan Harvey

 

Likely outcome: Poor man's Russell Branyan

 

He has far superior plate coverage and doesn't strike out enough to be anywhere near Harvey or Branyan. He also is able to recognize offspeed junk he can't handle.

 

Also, Vitters doesn't have the true power those two had.

 

to be fair I couldn't think of a big bodied, not very toolsy, hacker type bust with above average but not great power.

 

I guess Richie Sexson now might work but Vitters probably has less power than him.

[Outshined_One]

Floor has to be lower than that. Francoeur had a bad year last year but is still a good young player. No he doesn't have disapline but had a good average up until last year (I know OBP is more important but average still counts for something). He has good power and plays GG defense. If at worst Vitters is a career .270, 20 hr, GG defender I don't know many teams that wouldn't be very please with that. His floor is some guy no one remembers because he bombed out once he got to AAA/Majors. I don't think Vitters will but he could.

 

Defensively, the comparison doesn't work. However, I was talking more along the lines of offense. Frankly, I always thought Francoeur was overrated from an offensive standpoint. I don't see him being a career .270 guy and I don't think he'll ever live up to the hype because of his atrocious plate discipline, despite how toolsy he is.

 

Vitters has enough raw talent and ability to make the majors if he's healthy. However, if he doesn't learn to take more walks, he won't make the majors to much fanfare.

[Guest]

Ceiling: Scott Brocius

Floor: Alex Rodriguez

 

Seriously though

 

Ceiling: Aramis Ramirez

Floor: Ryan Harvey

 

Likely outcome: Poor man's Russell Branyan

 

He has far superior plate coverage and doesn't strike out enough to be anywhere near Harvey or Branyan. He also is able to recognize offspeed junk he can't handle.

 

Also, Vitters doesn't have the true power those two had.

 

to be fair I couldn't think of a big bodied, not very toolsy, hacker type bust with above average but not great power.

 

I guess Richie Sexson now might work but Vitters probably has less power than him.

 

Depending on what your definition of "hacker" is, Vitters might not qualify there.

[JGalt73]

Year in Review: A slow-healing hand issue held Vitters back in the first half of the year and kept him out of a full-season league, but he was the best pure hitter in the Northwest League, and did nothing to lower expectations.

 

The Good: Vitters is a natural hitter with incredible bat speed and a picture-perfect swing that gets the barrel of the bat into the zone quickly. His plate coverage is nearly off the charts, and he's equally comfortable turning on inside fastballs as he is poking outside pitches the other way. He's worked hard on his defense, to the point where Cubs officials think that he can stay at third base and be at least an average fielder.

 

The Bad: Vitters' bat is his only impact tool. He doesn't run especially well and still needs to improve his reactions and footwork at the hot corner. He has the body and strength for power, but may be guilty of focusing a bit much on contact as opposed to driving the ball. His ability to hit so many pitches might work against him at times, as it has slowed the development of his plate discipline.

 

Perfect World Projection: An All-Star third baseman who competes for batting titles while also supplying solid/average power.

 

Glass Half Empty: If his power doesn't come and his defense doesn't progress, you have a mismatch in terms of skill-set and position.

 

Timetable: Vitters will finally get a full-season assignment by beginning the year at Low-A Peoria. The Cubs will let his performance dictate his timetable from there, and will move him up quickly if he dominates.

[Dirt Dog Sparly]

If the power dosent come could he be a guy that moves to second?

[SouthSideRyan]

If the power dosent come could he be a guy that moves to second?

 

No, he won't be much better than average at 3B, he'd be pretty awful at 2B.

 

And Jeff Francoeur is terrible. He hasn't been a good major leaguer since his half season his rookie year.

[Guest]

How does he compare to David Wright? Vitters is 2" taller but about the same weight. Both drafted out of high school. In their age 18 seasons Wright hit .300/.391/.849 vs Vitters .328/.365/.863. Wright's fielding pct was .939 vs .915 for Vitters. Wright is a perennial 30HR+ guy now, but never him for much power until he turned 21. He's also a gold glover defensively.

[UK1679666180]

How does he compare to David Wright? Vitters is 2" taller but about the same weight. Both drafted out of high school. In their age 18 seasons Wright hit .300/.391/.849 vs Vitters .328/.365/.863. Wright's fielding pct was .939 vs .915 for Vitters. Wright is a perennial 30HR+ guy now, but never him for much power until he turned 21. He's also a gold glover defensively.

 

Wright is gifted in every aspect of the game, I don't know Vitters has the same bat control as Wright even at 18. After Wright signed his contact, he had worked out but didn't take any live hitting for a couple of weeks, his 1st BP he was hitting line drives off the wall that major leaguers would be proud of. Also, in Rookie-Ball he would talk about advanced strategy with their coach (David Howard) that was too advanced for therm to trya nd execute let alone know beforehand.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Also, in Rookie-Ball he would talk about advanced strategy with their coach (David Howard) that was too advanced for therm to trya nd execute let alone know beforehand.

 

Like what?

[the splendid splinter]

Ceiling: Scott Brocius

Floor: Alex Rodriguez

 

Seriously though

 

Ceiling: Aramis Ramirez

Floor: Ryan Harvey

 

Likely outcome: Poor man's Russell Branyan

 

 

Strikeouts arent even close to Branyan and Branyan was toolshed without the contact.

Barbarian player.

[soonercub]

I would compare him to a less athletic versions of David Wright and Evan Longoria. Wright and Longoria both played shortstop until they grew out of the positions. Vitters doesn't look to have that sort of athleticism, but his bat is as impressive and might have been rated a little higher coming out of high school. Here is a little segment I posted on another thread.

 

He is probably the best hitting talent the Cubs have had in their minors in the last 10 years. You got to remind yourself that he was extremely young for his grade level. In today's environment when kids are routinely held back for sports purpose or they start kindergarten late because they are a Summer time birthday, this is not the case for Josh. Josh's birthday is Aug. 27. Also, he has a clean effortless swing (click on his scouting video and enjoy http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y20 ... racker.jsp ) He also has something most people don't have; 20-10 vision.

 

Here is a snippet from a previous article:

During this past season at Cypress, Vitters was asked by one scout to undergo an eye test. He agreed and visited with Dr. Bill Harrison, a world-renowned optometrist in the field of sports vision in California.

 

Vitters passed the test with flying colors, Weber said.

 

“Dr. Harrison discovered that he has 20-10 vision,” Weber recalled. “This doctor, who has tested every baseball player known to man, said he had never seen anyone’s eyes like this since Barry Bonds when Barry was in his prime.”

 

I hope the Cubs hold on to him and I can't wait to see how he develops. While most Cubs prospects like Pie and Patterson are physically gifted toolsy players you hope can hit. Vitters is a hitter you find a place for.

[imb]

Also, in Rookie-Ball he would talk about advanced strategy with their coach (David Howard) that was too advanced for therm to trya nd execute let alone know beforehand.

 

Like what?

 

yeah, i want to hear this story too, sounds good

[craig]

I like the analogy that Outshined placed for Vitters' ceiling: Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez is not an "athletic" type player, and Vitters isn't either. Both have strong arms defensively, both have excellent coordination (according to the scouts at least), obviously Vitters currently is much faster than Pokey Aram (Vitters may never be as slow as Aram, but who knows once he's 30....). Offensively, both profile as guys with quick bats and good contact skill. Easy to say that for Vitters now at 18; will we still say his contact is so special when he's facing the movement of big-league pitching? Likely not, but that's the ceiling. S if indeed he does have that excellent contact ability that Aram has, he'll be able to hit for high average ala Aram. The ceiling is that his strength will mature; the combination of good bat speed, good contact skill, and maturing power should give him excellent in-game power, again ala Aram. Not sure how great his BP-power will be, perhaps not Harvey-esque. But actual HR-output is a combined function of strength and contact, and if his contact skills are good enough, I'd be surprised if his strength didn't end up sufficient to be a good HR-hitter, possibly even an exceptional one. A .300-30HR-.900 OPS profile, that's within the ceiling. Once you're in that arena, it's a small incremental step to .320-40HR-1.000 OPS range, MVP-range. Not likely, but I don't think those levels can be said to be beyond the ceiling. The other qualities that make me like the Aram analogy is the limited walks and the limited speed. Hopefully Vitters will approach Aram's remarkable anti-K contact ability. It's hard to swing as hard as Aram and miss as rarely as he does; so that's not an easy ceiling to reach.

 

Obviously the floor is below that of known major leaguers. The floor could be Ryan Gripp. I recall at draft Gripp being ceilinged to Jeff Bagwell as hitter, and as competent 3B defensively. He hit with power in A-ball, but by AA his defense was deficient even at 3B; that could well prove the case with Vitters, he might be a 1B/DH/LF, and perhaps too slow even for LF, by the time he's 21 and in AA. His HR power is projected; but it's possible that he'll never be a HR-loft guy, and if he doesn't improve faster than the competition, by AA the movement and velocity may be such that he just doesn't hit the ball on the nose often enough to be a 20-HR guy. If contact becomes a problem versus superior pitchers, not only will the HR's remain modest but the K's will rise; without the benefit of HR's to sustain BA/OBP/slugging, and with the hit that K's place on BA and OBP, you could easily be seeing a guy who just won't hit enough, or with enough power, to justify 3B defense or 1B position. And if he never takes more walks, that will further limit a guy who may not have enough contact to hit for high average or high HR's.

 

As with most any player, I think his future will hinge on his contact skills, pitch recognition, and power offensively, and on his defense. There is a lot of space in between Gripp on the bottom extreme (both defensively and offensively) and Aram-plus on the top extreme (both offensively and defensively).

 

At this point it's too early to know if he'll be really good. But there's chance enough that he might be.

[UK1679666180]

Also, in Rookie-Ball he would talk about advanced strategy with their coach (David Howard) that was too advanced for therm to trya nd execute let alone know beforehand.

 

Like what?

 

Various bunt defenses as well as some of the 1st and 3rd defenses. He could dissect pitchers as well as far as how to attack them and what not that was extremely rare for someone 18-19yo.

 

Jose Reyes was there as well, while more gifted as far as tools, he didn't have the same instincts or dedication as Wright.

[TruffleShuffle]

disapline

 

ok i know everyone hates spelling-sticklers but this is just terrible.

 

ceiling: babe ruth bat crossed with ozzie smith's glove

floor: the kid on my little league team when i was 10 who got 1 hit the entire year

[CubinNY]

disapline

 

ok i know everyone hates spelling-sticklers but this is just terrible.

 

ceiling: babe ruth bat crossed with ozzie smith's glove

floor: the kid on my little league team when i was 10 who got 1 hit the entire year

That's going out on a limb.

 

I like the Aramis comparison for how good he could be. Who really cares how bad he could be?

 

Players like Vlad and Aramis who have remarkable plate coverage, power, and contact skills are rare though. I'd rather he develop an eye for pitches to drive.

 

Lot's of MLB players have exceptional vision and superior hand-eye-coordination. If they didn't they would get to where they've gotten.

[davell]

Fleita said yesterday that he'd like to see Vitters start next year in Daytona, due to the cold weather in Peoria. Not sure if this happens or not obviously, but I'd like it for sure.