Will The NL Central Be The New AL West Next Year?

[Ski]

I mean, we're the only ballclub who basically will be pretty identical to last year (we lost wood, but we have harden for the whole year, minus a few starts). Brewers lost two aces, Cardinals only added Greene and their pixie dust is sure to wear off, the Astros and Pirates still suck, and the Reds are managed by Dusty Baker. Are we going to run away with the division next year?

 

*knocks on wood*

[jersey cubs fan]

I think the Cubs overachieved a bit last year and haven't done anything to improve the team this year. It will take something more to run away. The Angels only had 3 foes to run away from, the Cubs have 5. Somebody will likely at least challenge them over the first half.

[UK1679666180]

Right now, the Cubs are closer to an 87 win team than a 97 win team.

[Ski]

Didn't the Cubs match their Pythagreon average though, meaning they weren't lucky? And we have Harden all year, instead just half. We'll be adding a left handed outfield bat, and perhaps another starting pitcher better than Marquis, so I think we'll be about the same team, if not better.

[Mephistopheles]

we had career years from most of our players

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Didn't the Cubs match their Pythagreon average though, meaning they weren't lucky? And we have Harden all year, instead just half. We'll be adding a left handed outfield bat, and perhaps another starting pitcher better than Marquis, so I think we'll be about the same team, if not better.

 

 

Being lucky and overachieving are two different things. Our record matched our performance, so we weren't lucky, but our performance from some players isn't likely to continue, so going forward the expectations have to be lower.

 

Personally, depending on what we do in RF I don't think we are closer to 10 wins worse than the same as last year, but I agree with the sentiment about our competitors. The Brewers look markedly worse, the Pirates are awful, the Reds are in limbo, and I don't think the Cardinals are better than last year(at this point), meaning we should be pretty clear favorites.

[jersey cubs fan]

Didn't the Cubs match their Pythagreon average though, meaning they weren't lucky? And we have Harden all year, instead just half. We'll be adding a left handed outfield bat, and perhaps another starting pitcher better than Marquis, so I think we'll be about the same team, if not better.

 

You can get lucky in other ways than winning more than your pthag suggests. The Cubs were about about as good as they could have been last year. I don't think there was any underachievement. Typically you can count on quite a few guys missing expectations, which I'm pretty sure will come back this year.

 

Plus, while having Harden all year will help, it won't help as much if he misses that time due to injury.

 

If they add the right things maybe they can run away, but they haven't done anything yet and I'm skeptical about what they will end up looking like.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Cubs were about about as good as they could have been last year. I don't think there was any underachievement.

 

Lee? Fukudome and Zambrano to a lesser extent?

[jersey cubs fan]

The Cubs were about about as good as they could have been last year. I don't think there was any underachievement.

 

Lee? Fukudome and Zambrano to a lesser extent?

 

Lee is who he is. Zambrano, I really don't think so. Fukudome maybe, but he's an unknown.

[Ski]

The Cubs were about about as good as they could have been last year. I don't think there was any underachievement.

 

Lee? Fukudome and Zambrano to a lesser extent?

That's what I was thinking too. Lee could probably do a little better next year, Zambrano's ERA should be closer to 3 than 4, and Fukudome should hopefully rebound from a terrible second half.

[rawaction]

The Cubs were about about as good as they could have been last year. I don't think there was any underachievement.

 

Lee? Fukudome and Zambrano to a lesser extent?

That's what I was thinking too. Lee could probably do a little better next year, Zambrano's ERA should be closer to 3 than 4, and Fukudome should hopefully rebound from a terrible second half.

 

I think Soriano and Aramis had down years. They were down from 07 and down from what I expected from them. Of course, Theriot, Soto, Derosa and CF was a lot better than expected.

[jersey cubs fan]

The Cubs were about about as good as they could have been last year. I don't think there was any underachievement.

 

Lee? Fukudome and Zambrano to a lesser extent?

That's what I was thinking too. Lee could probably do a little better next year, Zambrano's ERA should be closer to 3 than 4, and Fukudome should hopefully rebound from a terrible second half.

 

I think Soriano and Aramis had down years. They were down from 07 and down from what I expected from them. Of course, Theriot, Soto, Derosa and CF was a lot better than expected.

 

They were down marginally and past their prime years. I don't see how that can be considered underachieving. I'm not really talking about slight variations from expectations though. In comparison to his abilities, Soriano probably underachieves his potential. But that ship has sailed, and a .280/.344/.532 121 OPS+ season is about all you can hope for realistically. His 2004 season was significantly undperforming his typical season, especially when you consider he was 28 and should have been at his peak.

[haubrich91]

Unless the Brewers get a few decent pitchers in FA, I don't see them being better than 3rd.

 

Here's my prediction:

 

Cubs

Cardinals

Astros

Brewers

Reds

Pirates

[B]

And we have Harden all year, instead just half.

I doubt it.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

And we have Harden all year, instead just half.

I doubt it.

 

Agreed.

 

If Zambrano's performance on the mound was underperforming, his batting made up for it.

[Guest]

Lee may find the seats a few more times next year but I doubt Aramis had a down year so much as he is trending down. Still, he could fashion a george brett type tail to his career (ie lower average, more walks, more homeruns) and still be pretty useful.

[bcl412]

I could see the NL central being the weak division it was supposed to be last year. The only teams who were great last year were the Cubs and Brewers, the Cubs could be as good as last year but as others have said they overacheived a bit. The Brewers probably won't be as good.

[SweetZombieJesus]

Right now, the Cubs are closer to an 87 win team than a 97 win team.

 

Considering we will likely have to face Khalil Greene and probably Adam Dunn I wouldn't be so sure to think this isn't a 50 win team at best.

[Andy]

It would probably require some major Cardinal pixie shenanigans to keep us from winning the division, but I doubt we really clobber everyone. Probably 90 wins or thereabouts.

[CubbieBum]

I would say right now team as is we are the favorites and would win 85-90. If we get another pitcher and outfielder that raises to 95-100.

[17 Seconds]

this is like the dumbest thread ever. have we not learned about doing these things? anyways, i doubt we're the powerhouse we were last year. i'd say we're about a 90 win team... maybe less

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I would say right now team as is we are the favorites and would win 85-90. If we get another pitcher and outfielder that raises to 95-100.

 

Wow. Those is an *incredible* pitcher/outfielder combo.

[jersey cubs fan]

I would say right now team as is we are the favorites and would win 85-90. If we get another pitcher and outfielder that raises to 95-100.

 

Wow. Those is an *incredible* pitcher/outfielder combo.

 

I really like the way you phrased that.

[DiamondMind]

we had career years from most of our players

 

I both agree with this, and am scared by it.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I would say right now team as is we are the favorites and would win 85-90. If we get another pitcher and outfielder that raises to 95-100.

 

Wow. Those is an *incredible* pitcher/outfielder combo.

 

I really like the way you phrased that.

 

*scrambles for excuse*

 

It's a dialect thing.