Re: College Football - Bowl Discussion

[Hosak8]

the point still remains that meph is a total fraud, so you were like, half right

 

Half right, huh? Well, I've been holed up at my in-laws for two weeks now, so if I were at home, that should account for a .25 swing, making me 75% right.

[Mephistopheles]

well ole miss was in every game they played and outplayed everyone, except Florida really, actually outplayed most of the teams they lost to. just a few big swing plays here and there caused them to lose those games. usually such events are random and don't have much if any predicative value.

 

They lost by 2 points to Wake Forest. They took the lead with a minute remaining, then ended up losing on a field goal as time expired. They also had two costly turnovers, one was a fumble (fumbles are purely random events) and one INT on a trick play which they would have loved to not do. They outplayed Wake, but at the end of the day one high leverage final minute caused them to lose the game.

 

They lost by 3 points to Vanderbilt thanks to six turnovers...they only gave up 200 yards to Vandy and gained nearly 400, but six turnovers will kill a lot of teams. Four of them were picks, not purely random events, BUT Sneads progression as the season continued probably makes those picks not as predicative because he's blossomed as he's gained experience under Nutt. Really they were better than Vandy and are.

 

They lost by a touchdown to South Carolina. Why? Two fumbles, again random events. Both SC and Ole Miss matched each other most of the day. It was a tossup game but the fumbles sealed their fate.

 

They lost by 4 points to Alabama in a game where they were down a lot early, came back and had the ball with three minuts to go down by four before being stopped at midfield on fourth down. They also fumbled the ball while driving big in the fourth quarter at midfield.

 

Now I said fumbles are random and dont have much predicative value, but in these games they had huge fumbles and that's mainly what caused them to go 0-4 instead of 2-2 or 3-1. Ole Miss won their last five games and only had two fumbles the entire time. So really the first half of the season they fumbled the games away and the second half they didn't. Florida actually fumbled the game away against them.

 

In all of their 12 games this season, only once were they visibly outclassed by the opponent. And that was against Florida. Florida killed themselves that game and allowed Ole Miss to pull off the upset. In all of the other games they were either on par with their opponents, including Alabama, or really outplayed them. As of late Snead's developed into one of the best QBs in the conference and probably the country as well. There's no doubt in my mind that they're better than Oregon State.

 

Oregon State on the other hand was absolutely demolished by Oregon and Penn State. They were never in those games. Sure, the Rebels had another loss, but they were never trashed like Oregon State was and that means quite a bit.

[SouthSideRyan]

On the other hand, this fumbles are completely random nonsense has to stop.

[Mephistopheles]

On the other hand, this fumbles are completely random nonsense has to stop.

 

Except, that, they are. Not completely random, but random enough to treat them as completely random, from the offenses point of view.

[Hosak8]

On the other hand, this fumbles are completely random nonsense has to stop.

 

Except, that, they are. Not completely random, but random enough to treat them as completely random, from the offenses point of view.

 

I actually agree with this point. Fumbles are random. However, they are not unimportant, and are a part of the game. Had you pointed out ONE loss, or maybe even TWO losses where fumbles played a key role, that would be one thing. However, you stated that Ole Miss' fumbles contributed to all their losses. That is not the sign of a great team.

 

I sincerely believe that Oregon State beats Ole Miss 7 out of 10 times on a neutral field, Mephematics be damned.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

On the other hand, this fumbles are completely random nonsense has to stop.

 

Except, that, they are. Not completely random, but random enough to treat them as completely random, from the offenses point of view.

 

Are you talking about the rate that they're forced, or the rate that they're recovered?

[Mephistopheles]

defense forcing rate - some skill

offense getting forced on - almost completely random, very little skill

recovering fumbles - completely random

 

To Hosak. I didn't say fumbles weren't important. They usually mean a lot in the game, but not for other games whereas a good passing performance in a game means a lot for other games, obviously.

 

Ole Miss matches up favorably against Oregon State. The outstanding defensive line of Ole Miss ought to be able to contain their running game and get a lot of pressure like Pitt did yesterday. Jevan Snead's the best passing QB they would have faced.

Edited January 2, 2009 by Mephistopheles

[SpongeWorthy]

I bet I got bored of this argument before you guys did.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Fumbles are recovered at almost exactly a 50% clip.

[SpongeWorthy]

defense forcing rate - some skill

offense getting forced on - almost completely random, very little skill

recovering fumbles - completely random

 

To Hosak. I didn't say fumbles weren't important. They usually mean a lot in the game, but not for other games whereas a good passing performance in a game means a lot for other games, obviously.

 

Ole Miss matches up favorably against Oregon State. The outstanding defensive line of Ole Miss ought to be able to contain their running game and get a lot of pressure like Pitt did yesterday. Jevan Snead's the best passing QB they would have faced.

 

There isn't a coach in the universe who would take Jevan Snead over Mark Sanchez.

[Mephistopheles]

Thru tonight, again Previous is before all the bowls.

Rk Pts Prv School

1. 84.40 1 Oklahoma

2. 83.31 2 Florida

3. 80.48 3 Texas

4. 80.29 4 Southern Cal

5. 75.33 6 Texas Tech

6. 73.34 5 Penn State

7. 71.57 7 Utah

8. 70.51 9 Alabama

9. 69.95 10 TCU

10. 68.56 8 Ohio State

11. 68.27 12 Missouri

12. 67.63 17 Oregon

13. 67.36 11 Boise St

14. 66.67 16 Georgia

15. 66.30 13 Oklahoma St

16. 66.24 15 Florida St

17. 65.62 19 California

18. 65.14 20 Oregon St

19. 63.31 24 Mississippi

20. 63.12 26 Nebraska

21. 62.98 21 Iowa

22. 62.91 23 Virginia Tech

23. 62.28 14 Georgia Tech

24. 61.96 18 North Carolina

25. 61.16 25 Pittsburgh

26. 60.80 33 Kansas

27. 60.62 31 Wake Forest

28. 60.41 35 Arizona

29. 60.34 22 Boston College

30. 60.09 28 Brigham Young

 

Conferences:

New - Old

60.57 60.01 Big 12

58.52 59.69 ACC

57.69 56.47 SEC

54.93 52.97 PAC 10

54.39 55.81 Big Ten

53.41 53.30 Big East

51.11 51.13 MWC

41.90 42.56 WAC

41.83 40.70 CUSA

41.37 41.60 IND

40.06 41.92 MAC

34.80 34.13 Sun Belt

[Hosak8]

Thru tonight, again Previous is before all the bowls.

 

Rk Pts Prv School

18. 65.14 20 Oregon St

19. 63.31 24 Mississippi

 

Conferences:

New - Old

60.57 60.01 Big 12

58.52 59.69 ACC

57.69 56.47 SEC

54.93 52.97 PAC 10

54.39 55.81 Big Ten

53.41 53.30 Big East

51.11 51.13 MWC

41.90 42.56 WAC

41.83 40.70 CUSA

41.37 41.60 IND

40.06 41.92 MAC

34.80 34.13 Sun Belt

 

Wait a second here... now I KNOW I read this one right. By your numbers, Oregon State is the better team, no? So, how again is the Florida loss better than the USC loss?

[Mephistopheles]

There isn't a coach in the universe who would take Jevan Snead over Mark Sanchez.

 

Actually, don't be surprised if both guys go in the first round of the 2010 draft. The last half of the season Sneads been a lot better QB than Sanchez has. He's probably been better than anyone in the country, though not as productive as Timmy Boy and Bradford. Then again, I don't think you've seen him play. Ever.

[SpongeWorthy]

There isn't a coach in the universe who would take Jevan Snead over Mark Sanchez.

 

Actually, don't be surprised if both guys go in the first round of the 2010 draft. The last half of the season Sneads been a lot better QB than Sanchez has. He's probably been better than anyone in the country, though not as productive as Timmy Boy and Bradford. Then again, I don't think you've seen him play. Ever.

 

Ok, but he's just not a better player. Less heralded coming out of high school, less productive in college, and rates lower in scouting circles.

 

And I would be surprised if he went in the first round. Care to wager on it?

[Mephistopheles]

Thru tonight, again Previous is before all the bowls.

 

Rk Pts Prv School

18. 65.14 20 Oregon St

19. 63.31 24 Mississippi

 

Conferences:

New - Old

60.57 60.01 Big 12

58.52 59.69 ACC

57.69 56.47 SEC

54.93 52.97 PAC 10

54.39 55.81 Big Ten

53.41 53.30 Big East

51.11 51.13 MWC

41.90 42.56 WAC

41.83 40.70 CUSA

41.37 41.60 IND

40.06 41.92 MAC

34.80 34.13 Sun Belt

 

Wait a second here... now I KNOW I read this one right. By your numbers, Oregon State is the better team, no? So, how again is the Florida loss better than the USC loss?

 

 

No. From the description of the system I am posting "If I had a vote, for top 25 including everything, not just how good a team is nor how much they accomplished, but a combination of the two, with the current AP ranks in parentheses." In theory, these rankings are 50% how "good" a team is, and 50% how "deserving" a team is. So it does penalize teams for winning and losing.

 

The method used to figure out how "good" a team is more accurate at predicting games between teams. In theory, over the long haul, (think 100s of games against a variety of opponents) the two would converge. In this method Ole Miss is ranked better and the difference between Ole Miss and Oregon State is about the same as the difference between Ole Miss and Ohio State.

[Guest]

Sanchez should be taken ahead of Snead but I think Snead is a first rounder in 2010.

[cubweiser03]

Ole Miss ranks in the bottom qtr of passing defense in the SEC. They produced the most sacks with 35. Tech on the other hand has only allowed 13 sacks, and thats with all the passing they do. If Ole Miss gets their pressure and sacks via the blitz thats not a good recipe against Tech. Blitzing them seems to be futile. I question on well they are going to match up against TT offense.

 

So fumble recoveries are random, i can buy into that a little more(50% is pretty convincing). But i dont think you can pick a moment in the game and then say that this specific fumble was random or it shouldnt be looked at seriously (how many times did fumbles helped Ole Miss gotta throw those out too then). Who fumbled, was it Mike Hart or Rashan Salaam, does that defense force a lot of fumbles like the Chicago Bears, etc. If Ole Miss is like Rashan Salem then they deserve to lose fumbles over time. Putting the ball on the ground, even though it could be random event on who recovers, isnt a good thing. If you dont put it on the ground you retain possession 100% of the time not 50%, fumbles hurt.

[Exile on Waveland]

Oregon State lost two games (one at home) by more than Ole Miss lost all four of its games combined. Again, the Rebels were outscored by 19 points in their four losses combined; while Oregon State lost by 27 and 31 (at home). Ole Miss easily could have won every game it played, it was in every single game. Oregon State was demolished twice. Ole Miss is better, and a better loss (especially since it came on a blocked PAT).

[Post Count Padder]

That game last night was depressing. Penn State is better than that. Dumb playcalling on offense, dumb penalties, and 10 yard cushions for the USC receivers on every play were the reasons Penn State lost. And yes, USC did play well, but it should have been much closer.

 

 

Oh well.

[cubweiser03]

That game last night was depressing. Penn State is better than that. Dumb playcalling on offense, dumb penalties, and 10 yard cushions for the USC receivers on every play were the reasons Penn State lost. And yes, USC did play well, but it should have been much closer.

 

 

Oh well.

 

I was surprised how bad PSU was getting gashed in the passing game. Sanchez 80% and 400 yards? PSU stopped the run really well but the passing defense just couldnt hold up. I thought PSU offense did pretty well minus the mistakes. They threw for twice as many yards as USC gives up on average. I didnt have them winning but i didnt have them getting gashed through the air like Michigan does agains USC, that was a surprise.

[Derwood]

That game last night was depressing. Penn State is better than that. Dumb playcalling on offense, dumb penalties, and 10 yard cushions for the USC receivers on every play were the reasons Penn State lost. And yes, USC did play well, but it should have been much closer.

 

 

Oh well.

 

I was surprised how bad PSU was getting gashed in the passing game. Sanchez 80% and 400 yards? PSU stopped the run really well but the passing defense just couldnt hold up. I thought PSU offense did pretty well minus the mistakes. They threw for twice as many yards as USC gives up on average. I didnt have them winning but i didnt have them getting gashed through the air like Michigan does agains USC, that was a surprise.

 

the secondary was not well prepared at all. It's pretty clear that had PSU beaten Iowa that they'd have been destroyed by Oklahoma's passing game as well

[Exile on Waveland]

That game last night was depressing. Penn State is better than that. Dumb playcalling on offense, dumb penalties, and 10 yard cushions for the USC receivers on every play were the reasons Penn State lost. And yes, USC did play well, but it should have been much closer.

 

 

Oh well.

 

I was surprised how the game went as well. I didn't expect Penn State to shoot itself in the foot as they did. USC is and was better, but that wasn't what I expected of Penn State at all.

[OleMissCub]

at Cotton Bowl righr now. these seats were designed for the use of hobbits. thanfully im in the shade for the whole game since it is warm and the sun is bright. I have no faith in my Rebels. to have a chance we need to control the clock and slow everything down. we wont win a scoring match but can win a physical slugfest. hotty toddy

[rchap24]

at Cotton Bowl righr now. these seats were designed for the use of hobbits. thanfully im in the shade for the whole game since it is warm and the sun is bright. I have no faith in my Rebels. to have a chance we need to control the clock and slow everything down. we wont win a scoring match but can win a physical slugfest. hotty toddy

 

I think you got a shot if you play a physical game with them, but yeah if it comes down to scoring you donzo

[da bears]

Go Tech!