Re: Peavy High on Cubs Wish List

[cubsfan26]

Good post, I know the 2.2m for Miles in 09 does seem high, but the guy made 1.4m last year, and hit 317/355/753 in 134 games. So he was gonna a 500,000 to 1 million raise from someone. Honestly 2m is probably the going rate for a guy who can play as many postions as Miles and who can hit for average like he has.

 

Except he was non-tendered by his team during an offseason in which 170 something free agents are out there not getting deals because the economy is a mess and most GMs don't want to waste millions on replacable crap players.

 

 

He was nontender by his team because they have money issues, and was probably gonna get a 1m plus raise in arbitration, and the Cardinals couldn't afford Miles at 2.5-3m. They also did try to resign him probably for 1.8-2m per season. But aftering adding Greene to play SS, he become less valueable to them. Aaron Miles would have gotten 1y at 2m this offseason, I dunno about the second year. But he would have gotten some money after what he did last season, and how many postions he plays. I know Felipe Lopez has more upside, but he was worse then Miles the last two seasons, and he signed a 1y at 3.5m with the D-backs.

[jersey cubs fan]

Good post, I know the 2.2m for Miles in 09 does seem high, but the guy made 1.4m last year, and hit 317/355/753 in 134 games. So he was gonna a 500,000 to 1 million raise from someone. Honestly 2m is probably the going rate for a guy who can play as many postions as Miles and who can hit for average like he has.

 

Except he was non-tendered by his team during an offseason in which 170 something free agents are out there not getting deals because the economy is a mess and most GMs don't want to waste millions on replacable crap players.

 

 

He was nontender by his team because they have money issues, and was probably gonna get a 1m plus raise in arbitration, and the Cardinals couldn't afford Miles at 2.5-3m. They also did try to resign him probably for 1.8-2m per season. But aftering adding Greene to play SS, he become less valueable to them. Aaron Miles would have gotten 1y at 2m this offseason, I dunno about the second year. But he would have gotten some money after what he did last season, and how many postions he plays. I know Felipe Lopez has more upside, but he was worse then Miles the last two seasons, and he signed a 1y at 3.5m with the D-backs.

 

He wouldn't have gotten some money just because of what he did last year. He still had to find a team that was dumb enough to pay him. There was no guarantee that Aaron Miles would get a raise. And what does the number of positions matter? Jim Hendry is probably the biggest sucker in baseball for versatility. The fact is he got his money from the Cubs because the general manager of the Cubs likes to waste money on mediocrity. He's done it every single year. Only a handful of other players have gotten paid this winter. There's an absurd amount of supply on the market and no demand.

[cubsfan26]

Good post, I know the 2.2m for Miles in 09 does seem high, but the guy made 1.4m last year, and hit 317/355/753 in 134 games. So he was gonna a 500,000 to 1 million raise from someone. Honestly 2m is probably the going rate for a guy who can play as many postions as Miles and who can hit for average like he has.

 

Except he was non-tendered by his team during an offseason in which 170 something free agents are out there not getting deals because the economy is a mess and most GMs don't want to waste millions on replacable crap players.

 

 

He was nontender by his team because they have money issues, and was probably gonna get a 1m plus raise in arbitration, and the Cardinals couldn't afford Miles at 2.5-3m. They also did try to resign him probably for 1.8-2m per season. But aftering adding Greene to play SS, he become less valueable to them. Aaron Miles would have gotten 1y at 2m this offseason, I dunno about the second year. But he would have gotten some money after what he did last season, and how many postions he plays. I know Felipe Lopez has more upside, but he was worse then Miles the last two seasons, and he signed a 1y at 3.5m with the D-backs.

 

He wouldn't have gotten some money just because of what he did last year. He still had to find a team that was dumb enough to pay him. There was no guarantee that Aaron Miles would get a raise. And what does the number of positions matter? Jim Hendry is probably the biggest sucker in baseball for versatility. The fact is he got his money from the Cubs because the general manager of the Cubs likes to waste money on mediocrity. He's done it every single year. Only a handful of other players have gotten paid this winter. There's an absurd amount of supply on the market and no demand.

 

 

Having a much better season then the one you had before usually will get you a raise, and yes number of postions he can play does matter. Because it improves the depth of you're team, since teams have plenty of injuries over the course of a 162 game season, and having a major league hitter who can fill in is helpful when that happens. You can believe whatever you wanna believe, but when Ramion Vazquez is signing 2y at 4m deal, Nick Punto at 2y at 8m, Felipe Lopez is signing 1y at 3.5m. I think the going rate for a player like Miles is probably around 2m. When you see those contracts, I dunno how you believe a GM wouldn't have given Miles 2m for 09. Teams aren't scared to pay bench/platoon players 2m plus per year. The reason why theres' so many free agents left, is because nobody wants to pay 8-15m plus for 2-4 years for players.

Edited January 2, 2009 by cubsfan26

[jersey cubs fan]

Having a much better season then the one you had before usually will get you a raise, and yes number of postions he can play does matter.

 

Again, the supply is through the roof and there is no demand. In years past he may have gotten that raise, but under current conditions, there was no reason why the Cubs GM had to be the idiot that gave it to him (and then guaranteed a 2nd year). And as I said before, number of positions matters because Hendry is insanely in love with the concept of versatility. Just because he has played other positions doesn't mean he has anymore value. If he's anything other than a backup 2nd baseman he's hurting your team.

[cubsfan26]

Having a much better season then the one you had before usually will get you a raise, and yes number of postions he can play does matter.

 

Again, the supply is through the roof and there is no demand. In years past he may have gotten that raise, but under current conditions, there was no reason why the Cubs GM had to be the idiot that gave it to him (and then guaranteed a 2nd year). And as I said before, number of positions matters because Hendry is insanely in love with the concept of versatility. Just because he has played other positions doesn't mean he has anymore value. If he's anything other than a backup 2nd baseman he's hurting your team.

 

Again bench/platoon middle infielders are still getting paid. Nick Punto, Ramon Vazquez and Felipe Lopez all got simliar or bigger contracts then Miles. I don't think you get it when it comes to versatility. Yes if Miles is playing over Aramis Ramirez he is hurting your team. But if Ramirez is hurt for a few days, and the other options is some bad hitter in Triple A, Miles doesn't look so bad there filling in. Same thing goes at SS with Miles replacing Theriot for a few days, and is just fine platoon at 2b. Being able to play alot of postions gives a player extra value, any GM will tell you that. Yes in fantasy baseball versatility is meaningless, but in real baseball it's important. Name me the playoffs teams last year that didn't have good versatility or great health? You either need very good luck health wise or good depth to survive a 162 game season. The 2004-2005 Cubs had very little depth, so once Alex Gonzalez, Ramirez, Nomar and others all missed time we were screwed with scubs. Having the options to go to a Reed Johnson if a outfield is hurt for a few days, or Miles at 2b or SS if a infielder is hurt for a few days is a good thing. I guess you don't remember the days of signing Rey Ordonez, or Damian Jackson to play SS or Tony Womack in 05 to play 2b. That kinda crap happens to the team when they don't have good versatility and depth. Hendry learned from that mistake and thats why he cares so much about depth the last few seasons. I much rather spend an extra million on a major league player who can hit a little bit even if he's stuck getting 300-400 AB's, then sign a bunch of scubs who will really hurt your team with any real playing time.

Edited January 2, 2009 by cubsfan26

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Miles is an inferior hitter to most AAA third basemen, I'd wager.

[ConstableRabbit]

Miles is an inferior hitter to most AAA third basemen, I'd wager.

In our system?

[cubsfan26]

Miles is an inferior hitter to most AAA third basemen, I'd wager.

 

 

In our system I'd take that bet. I don't see us having a guy who we can call up hit 290 get on base at a 330 rate and have OPS in the 700s while getting 300-400 AB's if he has to, in our system right now. Yes some some scrub might be able to do that for a week or whatever. I think thats the point though people look at Miles numbers and say well there not that great or average. But people need to factor in the AB's he gets, if the guy is only getting 200 AB's he's probably alot better hitter. Miles would be a bad everyday player(almost gets the AB's of a everyday player though), but is a good bench player who can be part of a platoon and start for you at times. I don't see how paying 2.2m for him next year is that much overpaying. Especially when other simliar players just signed simliar contracts.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Miles is an inferior hitter to most AAA third basemen, I'd wager.

 

 

In our system I'd take that bet. I don't see us having a guy who we can call up hit 290 get on base at a 330 rate and have OPS in the 700s while getting 300-400 AB's if he has to down on the farm right now. Yes some some scrub might be able to do that for a week or whatever. I think thats the point though people look at Miles numbers and say well there not that great or average. But people need to factor in the AB's he gets, if the guy is only getting 200 AB's he's probably alot better hitter. Miles would be a bad everyday player, but is a good bench player who can be part of a platoon and start for you at times. I don't see how paying 2.2m for him next year is that much overpaying. Especially when other simliar players just signed simliar contracts.

 

I'm not sure I'd bet on Miles getting on base at a .330 rate with an OPS in the .700s either, considering he's had five chances to cross those thresholds and only done it once.

[ConstableRabbit]

Miles is an inferior hitter to most AAA third basemen, I'd wager.

 

 

In our system I'd take that bet. I don't see us having a guy who we can call up hit 290 get on base at a 330 rate and have OPS in the 700s while getting 300-400 AB's if he has to down on the farm right now. Yes some some scrub might be able to do that for a week or whatever. I think thats the point though people look at Miles numbers and say well there not that great or average. But people need to factor in the AB's he gets, if the guy is only getting 200 AB's he's probably alot better hitter. Miles would be a bad everyday player, but is a good bench player who can be part of a platoon and start for you at times. I don't see how paying 2.2m for him next year is that much overpaying. Especially when other simliar players just signed simliar contracts.

 

I'm not sure I'd bet on Miles getting on base at a .330 rate with an OPS in the .700s either, considering he's had five chances to cross those thresholds and only done it once.

Maybe not as a full-time 3rd baseman or 2nd baseman, but as an infielder playing against LHP I think he'll put up at least those numbers.

[cubsfan26]

I'm not sure I'd bet on Miles getting on base at a .330 rate with an OPS in the .700s either, considering he's had five chances to cross those thresholds and only done it once.

 

 

He will at least come pretty close to those numbers, I only mentioned that because they were in his career numbers. Having OPS of 700 shouldn't be expected out of him if he's getting 400 AB's that often. But getting OBP at or around 330 rate is probably realistic, when you consider he's done in most years of his career. Getting 380-420 AB's is alot of AB's for a player like Miles, hopefully he doesn't have that many with the Cubs and is somewhere around 280-300. If thats the case I think he can put up better numbers in a smaller sample size. But it's still nice to have a guy on the roster who can hit for average and get on base a little bit coming off the bench, incase we have a injury, even if he has no power.

Edited January 2, 2009 by cubsfan26

[fromthestretch]

[Again bench/platoon middle infielders are still getting paid. Nick Punto, Ramon Vazquez and Felipe Lopez all got simliar or bigger contracts then Miles. I don't think you get it when it comes to versatility.

 

The fact that the Twins were dumb enough to shell out that kind of money for Nick Punto doesn't mean the Cubs need to overpay for Miles. At least Felipe Lopez has shown something with the bat in the past. Miles has only posted an OPS over .700 once in his career.

 

The Cubs already had a guy that can play both middle infield positions and fill in at third in a pinch while posting an OPS in the .600s. His name is Ronny Cedeno, and he's a hell of a lot less expensive than Miles. He just can't bat from the left side of the plate. The funny thing about this is that Cedeno's career OPS against right-handers is .680. Miles' is .690. So the Cubs are basically overpaying for a guy that really offers no more versatility than Cedeno and is probably worse defensively at short. He does hit for a higher average though, so I guess he's got that going for him.

[Monco]

How does the ability to play multiple positions poorly help the team? Most teams that pickup utility players actually find players with plus gloves. Miles best fielding position is 2B and hes average at best fielding there. Weak hitting,slow baserunning,and poor fielding come to mind. When they signed him I didn't think it was too bad but the more I look the less there is to like. A guaranteed second year ,that makes it look even worse. The Cards did the same thing with him contract wise last year and signed him later. They've seen him everyday for a few years and didn't see the need to get him signed.

[cubsfan26]

The Cards did the same thing with him contract wise last year and signed him later. They've seen him everyday for a few years and didn't see the need to get him signed.

 

 

Thats because Miles might have gotten paid as a everyday player in arbiration. When you factor in his stats, and the amount of AB's he gets. If the Cards don't nontender him he's making more then 2.2m in 09 and more then 1.4m last year. Thats because other players around the league are making what Miles makes, especially if you consider the AB's he gets. Hitting 290 in 414 AB's he would have made more then 1.4m in 08, and hitting 317 in 380 AB's would have made him more then 2.2m in 09 through arbirtation. Lets play a little game, for everyone who thinks Miles is grossly overpaid. Then name me a bunch of guys around the league, who have hit what Miles has hit the last two years, while averaging 400 AB's a season, making alot less then he will be making in 09? I'm willing to bet you won't find many guys, because thats the going rate for that type of player, like it or not. If you don't think having a player like this and depth is important, when then thats your opinion I guess.

[fromthestretch]

Lets play a little game, for everyone who thinks Miles is grossly overpaid. Then name me a bunch of guys around the league, who have hit what Miles has hit the last two years, while averaging 400 AB's a season, making alot less then he will be making in 09? I'm willing to bet you won't find many guys, because thats the going rate for that type of player, like it or not. If you don't think having a player like this and depth is important, when then thats your opinion I guess.

 

Then let someone else pay him that money. He doesn't offer anymore versatility than Cedeno. He isn't anymore productive against right-handers than Cedeno. He hits for a higher average overall and is better against lefties than Cedeno. Is that really worth the difference in their salaries? There's a very real possibility that Miles posts an OPS in the mid-to-high .600s in 2009 (Cedeno was at .680 last season).

[cubsfan26]

The fact that the Twins were dumb enough to shell out that kind of money for Nick Punto doesn't mean the Cubs need to overpay for Miles. At least Felipe Lopez has shown something with the bat in the past. Miles has only posted an OPS over .700 once in his career.

 

Don't forget what Ramon Vazquez just got as well(2y at 4m), and I'm sure plenty of other simliar middle infielders got simliar contracts over the last few offseasons. As for Felipe Lopez he's shown signs of being good 2-3 years ago, but the last two season Miles ha been better. I agree that Lopez has more upside, but paying him 3.5 at one year, and Miles for 2y at 4.9, isn't a huge difference.

 

 

The Cubs already had a guy that can play both middle infield positions and fill in at third in a pinch while posting an OPS in the .600s. His name is Ronny Cedeno, and he's a hell of a lot less expensive than Miles. He just can't bat from the left side of the plate. The funny thing about this is that Cedeno's career OPS against right-handers is .680. Miles' is .690. So the Cubs are basically overpaying for a guy that really offers no more versatility than Cedeno and is probably worse defensively at short. He does hit for a higher average though, so I guess he's got that going for him.

 

Don't forget Miles is also gonna be used to platoon with Fontenot at 2b. Fontenot should be pretty solid against RH pitching, but there's major question marks about his hitting against LH pitching. So when you factor in Miles has had at least a 368 OBP against LH the last three seasons, it should make a solid platoon. Plus I think the Cubs trust Miles bat over Cedeno, and they could also use Cedeno as a piece in a trade, and still have a back up at SS and 3rd.

[CUBZ99]

Miles is an inferior hitter to most AAA third basemen, I'd wager.

 

 

In our system I'd take that bet. I don't see us having a guy who we can call up hit 290 get on base at a 330 rate and have OPS in the 700s while getting 300-400 AB's if he has to down on the farm right now. Yes some some scrub might be able to do that for a week or whatever. I think thats the point though people look at Miles numbers and say well there not that great or average. But people need to factor in the AB's he gets, if the guy is only getting 200 AB's he's probably alot better hitter. Miles would be a bad everyday player, but is a good bench player who can be part of a platoon and start for you at times. I don't see how paying 2.2m for him next year is that much overpaying. Especially when other simliar players just signed simliar contracts.

 

I'm not sure I'd bet on Miles getting on base at a .330 rate with an OPS in the .700s either, considering he's had five chances to cross those thresholds and only done it once.

 

Let's not get carried away. You may not like the Miles acquisition, but the guy did put up a .355 OBP last year, and to claim that any AAA 3B could do that or put up Miles career line of a .328 OBP is beyond defensible.

 

Just for kicks the Cubs AAA 3b last year Casey McGehee put up a .160 OBP in back up duty with the Cubs.

 

Ronny Cedeno comes into 2009 with a career .289 OBP.

 

Its not as easy as you try to make it out to be.

Edited January 2, 2009 by CUBZ99

[fromthestretch]

Don't forget what Ramon Vazquez just got as well(2y at 4m), and I'm sure plenty of other simliar middle infielders got simliar contracts over the last few offseasons. As for Felipe Lopez he's shown signs of being good 2-3 years ago, but the last two season Miles ha been better. I agree that Lopez has more upside, but paying him 3.5 at one year, and Miles for 2y at 4.9, isn't a huge difference.

 

The Vazquez signing wasn't a great one either. And I think I might prefer the one year at $3.5 for Lopez than the contract Miles got. At least if Lopez sucks, you're done with him after one season.

 

Don't forget Miles is also gonna be used to platoon with Fontenot at 2b. Fontenot should be pretty solid against RH pitching, but there's major question marks about his hitting against LH pitching. So when you factor in Miles has had at least a 368 OBP against LH the last three seasons, it should make a solid platoon. Plus I think the Cubs trust Miles bat over Cedeno, and they could also use Cedeno as a piece in a trade, and still have a back up at SS and 3rd.

 

Yes, he's better against lefties. However, you know he's going to get at-bats against right-handers, too. If Fontenot struggles, Miles will get more playing time. They might also let him play some short against right-handers here and there.

[PrimeTime]

When is the new owner supposed to get announced? I hope whoever it is green lights any moves right away and say they'll dish out any money for what it takes to win..Hopefully Hendry has a plan to get Roberts or Peavy once he gets the OK since I find it hard to believe guys liek Cedeno will still be here come spring training..

[17 Seconds]

Hendry already said he's not pursuing roberts this offseason

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Miles is an inferior hitter to most AAA third basemen, I'd wager.

 

 

In our system I'd take that bet. I don't see us having a guy who we can call up hit 290 get on base at a 330 rate and have OPS in the 700s while getting 300-400 AB's if he has to down on the farm right now. Yes some some scrub might be able to do that for a week or whatever. I think thats the point though people look at Miles numbers and say well there not that great or average. But people need to factor in the AB's he gets, if the guy is only getting 200 AB's he's probably alot better hitter. Miles would be a bad everyday player, but is a good bench player who can be part of a platoon and start for you at times. I don't see how paying 2.2m for him next year is that much overpaying. Especially when other simliar players just signed simliar contracts.

 

I'm not sure I'd bet on Miles getting on base at a .330 rate with an OPS in the .700s either, considering he's had five chances to cross those thresholds and only done it once.

 

Let's not get carried away. You may not like the Miles acquisition, but the guy did put up a .355 OBP last year, and to claim that any AAA 3B could do that or put up Miles career line of a .328 OBP is beyond defensible.

 

Just for kicks the Cubs AAA 3b last year Casey McGehee put up a .160 OBP in back up duty with the Cubs.

 

Ronny Cedeno comes into 2009 with a career .289 OBP.

 

Its not as easy as you try to make it out to be.

 

 

Oh my, he did it one whole season? That changes everything.

 

The Cubs system is notoriously weak at 3b right now. But I have no doubt they could find a scrap-heap mid-20s guy to put up a sub .700 OPS from third base. That's why they call it "replacement level." Miles is a perfectly adequate but overpaid backup middle infielder. The fact that he can play third base is irrelevant, every backup middle infielder should be able to do that. Most, including Miles, can't hit remotely close enough to justify it.

[cubsfan26]

The Cubs system is notoriously weak at 3b right now. But I have no doubt they could find a scrap-heap mid-20s guy to put up a sub .700 OPS from third base. That's why they call it "replacement level." Miles is a perfectly adequate but overpaid backup middle infielder.

 

 

Replacement level players don't average over 400 AB's per season. I'm sure you could find a scrap heap 3rd baseman, to have a sub 700 OPS for maybe 150-200 AB's. But you're more likely find crappy ones that don't do that and hurt you're offense. I find it pretty hard to believe you will find a replacement level guy to put up Miles numbers for 400 AB's. If you think Miles is a overpaid middle infielder thats fine, but then most back up middle infielders are then. Miles is getting the going rate for his type of player. We can bash Hendry all we want for worrying to much about depth and bench players. But I remember a time when Hendry didn't do that and how awful that was. The last two years he had plenty of depth, and when we had injuries we usually didn't miss a beat. Doesn't the memory of Rey Ordonez, Damian Jackson, Enquire Wilson, Tony Womack, Angel Pagan, Freddie Bynum getting regular playing time when we had injuries give anybody else nightmares? Those were guys we all picked up off the scrap heap and the outcome was very bad. I guess people forget how important good depth is to have when you have it. So they complain about spending too much money for a bench player. But if we had to trade DeRosa I'm glad Hendry brought in someone to replace him. If he just went with Cedeno in that spot, or just signed some scub, things could be very bad next season if we have a injury.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The Cubs system is notoriously weak at 3b right now. But I have no doubt they could find a scrap-heap mid-20s guy to put up a sub .700 OPS from third base. That's why they call it "replacement level." Miles is a perfectly adequate but overpaid backup middle infielder.

 

 

Replacement level players don't average over 400 AB's per season. I'm sure you could find a scrap heap 3rd baseman, to have a sub 700 OPS for maybe 150-200 AB's. But you're more likely find crappy ones that don't do that and hurt you're offense. I find it pretty hard to believe you will find a replacement level guy to put up Miles numbers for 400 AB's. If you think Miles is a overpaid middle infielder thats fine, but then most back up middle infielders are then. Miles is getting the going rate for his type of player. We can bash Hendry all we want for worrying to much about depth and bench players. But I remember a time when Hendry didn't do that and how awful that was. The last two years he had plenty of depth, and when we had injuries we usually didn't miss a beat. Doesn't the memory of Rey Ordonez, Damian Jackson, Enquire Wilson, Tony Womack, Angel Pagan, Freddie Bynum getting regular playing time when we had injuries give anybody else nightmares? Those were guys we all picked up off the scrap heap and the outcome was very bad. I guess people forget how important good depth is to have when you have it. So they complain about spending too much money for a bench player. But if we had to trade DeRosa I'm glad Hendry brought in someone to replace him. If he just went with Cedeno in that spot, or just signed some scub, things could be very bad next season if we have a injury.

 

I'm not sure why you are imagining some magic line between 200 ABs and 400 ABs.

 

And none of the stuff you just said changes the point I made, which was that he doesn't hit enough to be a viable backup at 3rd base. He's perfectly fine at 2b and SS.

[PrimeTime]

No one might get Peavy if this goes through..

 

The Arizona Republic reports that Jeff Moorad has resigned from his post as CEO of the Arizona Diamondbacks in an attempt to acquire the San Diego Padres.

 

Team president Derrick Hall was promoted to President and CEO in Arizona. Padres fans will hope that Moorad's buying of the team might put a halt to all of the cost-cutting. Current Padres owner John Moores is currently going through a pricey divorce that is seemingly dragging down the enitre franchise.

 

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/2009/01/02/20090102moorad-CR.html

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

No one might get Peavy if this goes through..

 

The Arizona Republic reports that Jeff Moorad has resigned from his post as CEO of the Arizona Diamondbacks in an attempt to acquire the San Diego Padres.

 

Team president Derrick Hall was promoted to President and CEO in Arizona. Padres fans will hope that Moorad's buying of the team might put a halt to all of the cost-cutting. Current Padres owner John Moores is currently going through a pricey divorce that is seemingly dragging down the enitre franchise.

 

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/2009/01/02/20090102moorad-CR.html

:-k