Reality Check

[Mephistopheles]

I understand that most of you want to go splat from Sears Tower, but honestly we need to be realistic. The Cubs don't need a big makeover, we just need to tinker here and there. Yes we've struggled in the playoffs, but that doesn't mean we need to go out and make a big splash.

 

Disclaimer: If an opportunity presents itself, then fine, but we don't need to make a dumb long term move to make ourselves better. In other words we don't need to sign Manny Ramirez to a ridiculously long contract. In fact, the offense needs very little work. We don't need a catcher. We don't need a first baseman. We don't need a third baseman. We have two outstanding offensive second baseman. We have a serviceable shortstop. We don't need a left fielder. We could add another outfielder, one who can play either right or center, but there's really nothing wrong if we just resign Johnson and Edmonds.

 

Regarding right field. At this point we shouldn't relegate Fukudome to the bench, nor outcast him. We've invested a ton of money on him, and if he continues to struggle next year, we can adequately fill the gap with DeRosa in right field and Fontenot at second. At the same time we need to realize a few things about him. The guy was an incredible player in Japan with a lengthy track record of success. Every offensive player to come to the US has eventually hit their translations. Every single one of them has done as expected eventually. Most of them did not do it the first year. The pitching style differs quite a bit from Japan to the US. So a longer adjustment period is probable if not expected. At the same time it's why a lot of mediocre pitchers from Japan come here and flourish. It's also way quite a few major leaguers who went there happened to struggle. The guy has all the tools to be a successful major league hitter. He has quick hands, a good swing, stays back really well on an off speed pitch, and has excellent discipline and pitch recognition. Given his past the guys going to hit at some point. We shouldn't trade him for pennies. We have enough backup plans to if he doesn't work out we'll be fine.

 

And I am not buying that MLB pitchers have "solved" him and that the book on him is stay on the outer half all day long and watch him ground out harmly 24/7. If the book on a guy was that simple, pitchers in Japan would have figured it out long ago before he started winning battling titles and offensive MVPs. No, the most likely is just an adjustment to the sinking fastball. Considering the guy almost never saw it in Japan, and here it's a staple, we should expect a long-term adjustment. But as I said earlier, every Japanese player to come here eventually hit at their translated level. Why should Fukudome be the first one not to? He's one of the best to ever play in Japan. Oh and the Kaz Matsui comparison isn't valid. He's hit as expected for most of his career in the US.

 

Now this does not mean not to go after someone to play right if the price is right, but our money would be better spent elsewhere, I think. If we do sign someone to play right, then we need to give Fukudome every opportunity to play center - which honestly he should have been playing since day 1.

 

What the teams primary goal in the offseason should be is resigning Kerry Wood and looking to fill the void left by Ryan Dempster. Ryan Dempster is going to get offers this year in the 4/50 or 5/60 range - maybe more depending on how the market explodes, and honestly that's a terrible buy. I do think that management will resign him, though. At that point I really would be content to add just role players. If we don't make a single move in the off season we will be good enough to win the division. That includes not resigning Wood or Dempster. We can place Marmol as the closer and insert Samardzija in as the primary setup guy and be fine. And really, Sean Marshall probably has the same expected level of production over 30 starts as Dempster. I think we, as usual, need to dangle Marquis and try to replace him. I *dont* think we should get rid of him and not replace him with a starter (ie hand Marshall a job). Let's be frank, Harden's not going to make 20 starts next season and Marshall will have to pick up those 15 starts. If we hand Marshall the job and dump Marquis those starts will go to lord knows who. At the same time, we don't need to get an impact starter to replace Marquis. We have Hill, who we shouldn't count on, but if he's back then he absolutely can get the job from Marqui, and we have Marshall to put in if the guys a total waste. So really, there's no need to dump Marquis. All we need to do is find a replacement for Dempster, if we don't resign him.

 

I know a lot of you are going to want a big offseason move, but there's really not a reason to make one just to make one. Most of them really won't help us. I'll be happy if we resign every player thats a free agent and get ready for next year with the same team.

[Little Slide Rooter]

All we need is that 1 superstar bat. We have guys being paid superstar money, but dont give the production, at least consitantly. We need a Pujol, an A Rod, a Vlad. Other than that, were OK.

[UMFan83]

That's a hard sell to the fans. Stick with the team that failed when it mattered most for the last 2 seasons. I'm not saying you are wrong. I just don't know at this point.

[ctcf]

Great read Meph.

 

I know this may seem knee jerk, but Lee (one of my all time favorite Cubs mind you) worries me. I just get the feeling that he's going to continue a drop-off. At first glance his stats this year aren't that huge of an outlier for him but I would call them concerning. His lack of power has been disconcerting and he put up his lowest SLG this century.

[SouthSideRyan]

That's a hard sell to the fans. Stick with the team that failed when it mattered most for the last 2 seasons. I'm not saying you are wrong. I just don't know at this point.

 

This is going to be the problem. The vocal idiots(from fans to sports radio to ESPN) who rant and rave that you can't bring back the same team that got swept in the playoffs.

[ConstableRabbit]

Good post. But would you care to explain this?

 

Sean Marshall probably has the same expected level of production over 30 starts as Dempster.

 

Dempster had a career year and I obviously don't expect him to repeat it, but how do you figure that he and Marshall will perform the same next year?

[UMFan83]

Great read Meph.

 

I know this may seem knee jerk, but Lee (one of my all time favorite Cubs mind you) worries me. I just get the feeling that he's going to continue a drop-off. At first glance his stats this year aren't that huge of an outlier for him but I would call them concerning. His lack of power has been disconcerting and he put up his lowest SLG this century.

 

I don't expect his stats to go up or anything. He's what 33?

[Backtobanks]

All we need is that 1 superstar bat. We have guys being paid superstar money, but dont give the production, at least consitantly. We need a Pujol, an A Rod, a Vlad. Other than that, were OK.

 

The last time I looked none of these guys were available.

[Backtobanks]

Great read Meph.

 

I know this may seem knee jerk, but Lee (one of my all time favorite Cubs mind you) worries me. I just get the feeling that he's going to continue a drop-off. At first glance his stats this year aren't that huge of an outlier for him but I would call them concerning. His lack of power has been disconcerting and he put up his lowest SLG this century.

 

Lee is turning into Mark Grace, which is fine as long as you are getting power numbers from other positions. He seems to be an obvious choice at #2 in the lineup if this trend continues.

[USSoccer]

Great read Meph.

 

I know this may seem knee jerk, but Lee (one of my all time favorite Cubs mind you) worries me. I just get the feeling that he's going to continue a drop-off. At first glance his stats this year aren't that huge of an outlier for him but I would call them concerning. His lack of power has been disconcerting and he put up his lowest SLG this century.

 

Lee is turning into Mark Grace, which is fine as long as you are getting power numbers from other positions. He seems to be an obvious choice at #2 in the lineup if this trend continues.

 

I see more Sean Casey than Mark Grace.

 

Meph's post is correct, and if I could add anything to it, it would be this:

 

Not only shouldn't we try and overhaul the roster, but it's going to be exceedingly difficult to do so anyway. Soriano is all but immovable. Fukudome is immovable-and even if you could unload him you're selling low AND eating a lot of cash. Ramirez and Soto are fine, playoff struggles aside. Font and DeRosa make a fine 2B combo, and they're relatively cheap.

 

That leaves you SS, 1B and CF. One would think Pie get another crack at the job. Does anyone really see Hendry dealing Theriot or Lee?

[anabiono]

why don't we just sign renteria?

[Rob]

On top of that, it doesn't hurt that the Brewers are going to have to make some major changes just to stay where they are right now in the standings.

[dew1679666265]

Excellent post

 

I agree completely with this (even if my still-frustrated attitude doesn't).

 

Here's a question though: Assuming Dempster does not return, who do you think we should go after and who do you think we will go after?

 

It may be too early to answer at this point, but I'd like your input if you can.

[Rob]

Excellent post

 

I agree completely with this (even if my still-frustrated attitude doesn't).

 

Here's a question though: Assuming Dempster does not return, who do you think we should go after and who do you think we will go after?

 

It may be too early to answer at this point, but I'd like your input if you can.

 

Burnett

[dew1679666265]

Excellent post

 

I agree completely with this (even if my still-frustrated attitude doesn't).

 

Here's a question though: Assuming Dempster does not return, who do you think we should go after and who do you think we will go after?

 

It may be too early to answer at this point, but I'd like your input if you can.

 

Burnett

 

I like your thinking. High injury risk, so I wouldn't pay a ton, but otherwise may be a good investment.

[anabiono]

Excellent post

 

I agree completely with this (even if my still-frustrated attitude doesn't).

 

Here's a question though: Assuming Dempster does not return, who do you think we should go after and who do you think we will go after?

 

It may be too early to answer at this point, but I'd like your input if you can.

 

Burnett

 

I like your thinking. High injury risk, so I wouldn't pay a ton, but otherwise may be a good investment.

 

there is also no doubt that he wants to pitch for this team

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Does anyone really see Hendry dealing Theriot or Lee?

I'll keep harping on this -- I hope like hell Hendry sells high with Theriot. I really don't see him trying to deal Lee.

[Guest]

Excellent post

 

I agree completely with this (even if my still-frustrated attitude doesn't).

 

Here's a question though: Assuming Dempster does not return, who do you think we should go after and who do you think we will go after?

 

It may be too early to answer at this point, but I'd like your input if you can.

 

Burnett

 

I like your thinking. High injury risk, so I wouldn't pay a ton, but otherwise may be a good investment.

 

Burnett's not going to come cheap - this is like JD Drew a couple years ago. He's opting out of 2 years and $24M so he's going to want to get paid.

[C.C.]

He's going to command 12-14 a year. Hell, maybe more then that. If Lohse is getting 10ish a year, what is Burnett worth. Although he's a injury risk which could come into play.

[biittner77]

I agree on Dempster in that he won't be worth it but Hendry will bring him back. Our only hope there is that someone makes an absurdly high offer or Hendry blames him for losing game 1.

 

I would like to see the Cubs go after Texiera and trade Lee. I'm sure a team like the Orioles would be glad to take him and give something valuable in return.

 

I doubt this will happen but it really depends on what Hendry believes is the cause of 2 straight early playoff exits. He may look at how vulnerable to Cubs lineup looked against good RH pitching and want to add another LH bat. He may also expect better seasons next year from Pie and Fukudome and leave well enough alone.

[manbearcub]

Lee is the clubhouse leader. He wont get traded.

[sneakypower]

Let's be frank, Harden's not going to make 20 starts next season and Marshall will have to pick up those 15 starts. If we hand Marshall the job and dump Marquis those starts will go to lord knows who.

Gaudin

[badnews]

Fukudome sucks. I pointed out to you how your translations were flawed and not every one matched up during the offseason last year, and to be honest you've always been overly glowing with your praise of Japanese players. You have a blind spot there, Mephistopheles. Matsuzaka is not all he's billed to be either. You're the main proponent of "ERA means nothing," take a look at him as a pitcher.

 

Sorry. I'm not drinking the sake anymore on your Japanese wonderboys anymore. Didn't you once say a $200 million posting fee for Yu Darvish would be a great investment? You go too far. Just looking at Fukudome's swing is painful. It's not going to get much better.

 

Personally, I think this team is ready to take a nosedive like the 2004 Mariners. The 2003 Mariners won 93 games and went to the playoffs. I think we're looking at less of a fall-off, but comparable in terms of expectations. Since May 1st Derrek Lee was essentially a .740 OPS hitter. He can be our version of Bret Boone.

[NCCubFan]

Fukudome sucks.

No he doesn't. He hit a wall and had a bad second half. There's no reason he can't rebound next year. People were expecting too much from him in his first year.

[badnews]

Uh, yeah, yeah he does suck. And people were not expecting too much. Most people expected an .815 OPS guy. Why on earth would you give him such a contract if that simple expectation is too high?

 

He didn't "hit a wall" in the second half. It's funny how people bitched and moaned about Jeromy Burnitz in 2005 and Fukudome couldn't even do that. Fukudome simply has a terrible approach and a swing that does not generate power.

 

What does he even bring to the table? He has patience, but it's Ben Grieve sit-on-your-ass-and-take-called-strikes-and-swing-at-crap patience.

 

Guys who strike out as much as Fukudome does and have his crappy Isolated Power usually steal an assload of bases. Or hit for a higher average. Or DO SOMETHING. How many players in the majors struck out 100 times, stole fewer than 15 bases, hit lower than .270, and hit less than 11 home runs? I don't have the extensive list in front of me but just on quick search I count two, Fukudome and good 'ol Jack Hannahan.

 

Sorry, everyone's entitled to their opinion, but I'm not buying into this "He'll be better because he's Japanese" delusion. Iwamura is a similarly crappy hitter as well, let's face reality here. Iguchi is getting worse, not better. Kaz Matsui was never very good. Kenji Johjima has flatlined. The latest crop of Japanese hitters suck, that's what I see. In fact, they seem to start out okay and get worse, so where is the optimism?

 

I've been saying it for months now, Fukudome is like the anti-Theriot on here, I've never seen people bend over backwards so far to justify such crap. And the crappier he hits, the supposedly better his defense gets.

 

It's not just second half. Here, let me bold this. Since May 1, Fukudome has been a .695 OPS hitter. SINCE MAY FIRST.

 

You know, I'm actually getting angry writing this stuff. I'm sorry, I'm actually GALLED that we're still trying to bail this guy out. You know what? It's not worth my time. I'll just come back when people start actually looking reality in the face, because this is a joke. Our .695 OPS right fielder who just "hit a wall" in the second half. You've got to be kidding me.

 

Enough is enough.