Reality Check

[sneakypower]

Uh, yeah, yeah he does suck. And people were not expecting too much. Most people expected an .815 OPS guy. Why on earth would you give him such a contract if that simple expectation is too high?

 

because...

Sportscorp President Marc Ganis, on how the Cubs can maximize their investment in Fukudome by following what the Yankees have done around LF Hideki Matsui: "I would look for signage opportunities, primarily in the right-field and center-field areas, from Japanese companies. If I were the Cubs, I'd take a picture of Yankee Stadium from last season and contact every one of the Japanese companies that advertise there." Ganis believes that the marketing of Fukudome "could almost pay for" the $48M contract.

-12/13/07

you don't think the Red Sox thought Matsuzaka's pitching alone was worth $100m do you?

[badnews]

Everybody exaggerates that effect. But that has no bearing on how bad he is as a hitter.

 

I almost did, when you consider how hyped Matsuzaka was. He was supposed to have 8 pitches he could throw for strikes at any time he wanted, plus a reverse slider and a gyroball and whatever else you want, and he's simple not that good.

 

I don't care if people think signing Tad Iguchi suddenly means every citizen of Japan has to send your team a check for $10,000, there are actually yes, quite a large number of people in Japan who don't give a crap in baseball or if they do they don't give a crap about every player who comes over to the U.S. In any event, I'm interested in good players. Why don't we sign some nobody from China and gain a billion new fans in that event? I This is kind of off the point.

 

Guys with G/F ratios as high as Fukudome's either strike out less and subsequently hit for higher averages, or at least they steal a crap ton of bases. He just brings nothing to the table, I've already said it, but I'll say it again, he doesn't have a Brian Giles eye at the plate, he has a Ben Grieve eye at the plate.

[sneakypower]

Everybody exaggerates that effect. But that has no bearing on how bad he is as a hitter.

The branding opportunities, opening the Asian rim further, reaching the baseball-crazy Japanese population, broadcast, print, endorsements is hard to exaggerate.

 

We'll likely be prohibitive favorites in the division again next year, and we can afford to see if he adjusts better in his second season. There are already adequate replacements on the roster if he embarrasses himself again for a long stretch, and what he's done for the ownership financially probably proves his contract won't ever be a liability.

 

He outperformed every hitter you mentioned but Hideki Matsui, by the way.

http://umpbump.com/press/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/japanese-player-stats.jpg

 

Everybody exaggerates that effect. But that has no bearing on how bad he is as a hitter.

 

I almost did, when you consider how hyped Matsuzaka was. He was supposed to have 8 pitches he could throw for strikes at any time he wanted, plus a reverse slider and a gyroball and whatever else you want, and he's simple not that good.

 

close, he has 5 pitches he throws with regularity plus the split he'll put out there a couple times a game. and he's not that good? heh. thats really a colossal reach.

[badnews]

The branding opportunities, opening the Asian rim further, reaching the baseball-crazy Japanese population, broadcast, print, endorsements is hard to exaggerate.

 

No, it's become ridiculously en vogue to exaggerate. It just doesn't happen the way people think it does. I don't think you can conclude anything convincingly one way or another financially. You just don't know, it's speculation.

 

Kenji Johjima's first year he had a .783 OPS. Better than Fukudome's.

 

Tad Iguchi had a .780 OPS his first year. Better than Fukudome.

 

Iwamura had a .770 OPS his first year. Better than Fukudome.

 

Now, are these players getting better or worse since their first year?

[ConstableRabbit]

What's your point, man? We all agree that he was an amazing player in Japan, but he's sucked this year.

 

We have two options

1. Trade him now, while his value is very low

2. See if he improves next year

 

You don't need to prove that he's sucked anymore, but you cannot prove that he will not improve. What are you suggesting the Cubs do?

[badnews]

close, he has 5 pitches he throws with regularity plus the split he'll put out there a couple times a game. and he's not that good? heh. thats really a colossal reach.

 

Matsuzaka was good this year in the same way Jarrod Washburn was in 2005.

 

He had a 1.32 WHIP, his FIP is 4.11, his BABIP is way too low and his runners LOB is too high. He averages, like what, 5 innings a start? Here's another guy people can't see past. He's just not that good.

 

Colossal reach?

[badnews]

What's your point, man? We all agree that he was an amazing player in Japan, but he's sucked this year.

 

We have two options

1. Trade him now, while his value is very low

2. See if he improves next year

 

You don't need to prove that he's sucked anymore, but you cannot prove that he will not improve. What are you suggesting the Cubs do?

 

Same thing the Dodgers are doing with Pierre and the Angels are doing with GMJ. Accept you made a mistake and pick your spots.

[ConstableRabbit]

What's your point, man? We all agree that he was an amazing player in Japan, but he's sucked this year.

 

We have two options

1. Trade him now, while his value is very low

2. See if he improves next year

 

You don't need to prove that he's sucked anymore, but you cannot prove that he will not improve. What are you suggesting the Cubs do?

 

Same thing the Dodgers are doing with Pierre and the Angels are doing with GMJ. Accept you made a mistake and pick your spots.

Do you really think this is a comparable situation as Pierre and GMJ?

 

Kosuke is not a 5 year MLB veteran. He's a rookie who had an exceptional track record at a lower level. By your logic, we should trade Pie for nothing too. He's a guy who tore the cover off of the ball at AAA and plays great defense, but has sucked at the major league level.

 

Move him to CF, sign a RF that hits like one and let it be. You can resign Johnson and just make him the everyday starter or platoon him with Kosuke or Pie if Kosuke is struggling. Or you could just trade him in the middle of the season... his value won't be much lower than it is now.

[badnews]

Look, Pierre and GMJ got ABs on their teams. GMJ got nearly 400 ABs. It's not like they aren't doing anything. But every day starter, I think you're chasing bad decisions with more bad decisions.

 

It's not like Pie is exceptional or anything. There's a lot of players who fit into his type of mold who have failed in the majors and aren't worth much.

[sneakypower]

would that be $16m/year man Torii Hunter or $12m/year man Aaron Rowand, or someone else?

[badnews]

What is the question? I didn't want either of those guys.

[imb]

in the offseason when everyone was wetting their pants over fukudome and the will he/wont he sign with us, i said he was a lefthanded matt murton and lo and behold

 

as far as daisuke, i dont get your weird dislike of him, but the only standard he's not hitting is whatever odd, ridiculously high one you're pretending that people think he is at.

[sneakypower]

What is the question? I didn't want either of those guys.

your "aren't worth much" comment.

 

but i give up- value isn't what market dictates, it's just what's in your personal preferences. you know more about marketing than advertising executives. a likely top 3 cy young finisher didn't just have a good season. life is just a mirage.

[badnews]

I didn't like Fukudome in the offseason either.

 

I've tried to explain my dislike of Matsuzaka to you and you legitimately don't understand, so I don't see why we should even bother to go there. I'm not a fan of pitchers who post high WHIPs and low ERAs. I wasn't a Russ Ortiz fan. I wasn't a Washburn fan in 2005. Generally, a WHIP over 1.30 simply does not impress me. It's the same with Matsuzaka, I'm actually surprised his FIP is only 4.11, I would've thought 4.30 or something like that, he just walks a barrage of hitters and doesn't stay in the game very long.

[badnews]

What is the question? I didn't want either of those guys.

your "aren't worth much" comment.

 

but i give up- value isn't what market dictates, it's just what's in your personal preferences. you know more about marketing than advertising executives. a likely top 3 cy young finisher didn't just have a good season. life is just a mirage.

 

A top 3 finisher in the Cy? What does that prove? I explained my point about Matsuzaka clearly enough. He won't get top 3 anyway, he doesn't have anywhere close to the innings.

 

I seriously thought we all knew better on here than to ignore WHIP to ERA correlation, or FIP. You're ignoring FIP. This is like having to explain to people why Russ Ortiz isn't as great as you think back in the day with Atlanta.

 

Aaron Rowand as a prospect doesn't strike me as similar to Pie as a prospect.

[imb]

I didn't like Fukudome in the offseason either.

 

I've tried to explain my dislike of Matsuzaka to you and you legitimately don't understand, so I don't see why we should even bother to go there. I'm not a fan of pitchers who post high WHIPs and low ERAs. I wasn't a Russ Ortiz fan. I wasn't a Washburn fan in 2005. Generally, a WHIP over 1.30 simply does not impress me. It's the same with Matsuzaka, I'm actually surprised his FIP is only 4.11, I would've thought 4.30 or something like that, he just walks a barrage of hitters and doesn't stay in the game very long.

 

i know, but it's like the third time you've brought him up on your own and then acted like people think he's the greatest pitcher in league history. i think everyone has a realistic expectation of who he is as a pitcher, the only view that's skewed on him is the one you're pretending other people hold

[badnews]

I'm just reporting the hype as I experienced it before the posting. He was literally billed as the greatest pitcher on earth with 8 pitches he could throw for strikes at any time he wanted. I mean, heck, go back and look at mlbtraderumors.com archives if you don't believe me. This stuff was out there, and in more places than just that. He was literally called the best pitcher on the planet by many different sources. And I'm saying he is nowhere near that.

 

He had like the 24th best WHIP in the AL. Out of 41 AL starters who had at least 160 IP Matsuzaka had the 35th best strikeout to walk ratio, worse than Nate Robertson, Brian Bannister, Vicente Padilla, etc.

 

Matsuzaka had a worse FIP than Kevin Millwood.

 

Matsuzaka also had the 4th best run support in baseball.

Edited October 6, 2008 by badnews

[sneakypower]

What is the question? I didn't want either of those guys.

your "aren't worth much" comment.

 

but i give up- value isn't what market dictates, it's just what's in your personal preferences. you know more about marketing than advertising executives. a likely top 3 cy young finisher didn't just have a good season. life is just a mirage.

 

A top 3 finisher in the Cy? What does that prove? I explained my point about Matsuzaka clearly enough. He won't get top 3 anyway, he doesn't have anywhere close to the innings.

 

I seriously thought we all knew better on here than to ignore WHIP to ERA correlation, or FIP. You're ignoring FIP. This is like having to explain to people why Russ Ortiz isn't as great as you think back in the day with Atlanta.

 

Aaron Rowand as a prospect doesn't strike me as similar to Pie as a prospect.

Ortiz outperformed his FIP every year before he broke down from overuse, Washburn much the same, and our own Zambrano outperforms his FIP every year. all are pitchers consistently able to keep BAAs low, which FIP doesn't even factor. it's useful but obviously not perfect.

 

Matsuzaka's been able to keep his BAA low, and he could very well continue to outperform his FIP if he shows skill at avoiding XBHs.

[imb]

he's not the best pitcher on the planet ... in fact, he's nowhere near! stop the presses, matzusaka didn't deliver on the mlbtraderumors.com hype!

 

that's like complaining that a movie didn't live up to gene shalit's review. you're just over exaggerating the public perception of matzusaka for some odd reason.

[badnews]

Zambrano's not been doing stellar lately either. And Carlos isn't posting a 1.30+ WHIP with a sub-3.00 ERA either.

[badnews]

he's not the best pitcher on the planet ... in fact, he's nowhere near! stop the presses, matzusaka didn't deliver on the mlbtraderumors.com hype!

 

that's like complaining that a movie didn't live up to gene shalit's review. you're just over exaggerating the public perception of matzusaka for some odd reason.

 

If it makes you feel better I make the same complaint about The Dark Knight. #3 on the IMDB Top 250 my ass!

[sneakypower]

Daisuke - Japan:

 

1405 IP

2.95 ERA

3.50 FIP

 

outperformed it every year

[badnews]

You're treading close to the Barry Zito defense.

[sneakypower]

yet another good example, so i think we agree

 

he's probably a pitcher who will put up some great seasons for a decent stretch and then crap out a few years earlier than is usual, brought about by excessive workloads due in large part to high BB totals

[badnews]

His pitches/plate appearance are so insanely high I don't think he's even going to have close to this low an ERA again. Last year he was at 4.40. I still stand by statement that I don't think he's that great.