The 2009 Offseason Thread

[fromthestretch]

Ok well I was proved wrong there, but why do you think there's not chance he'll bat .300 next year?

 

I never said there was no chance. My guess is that he'd probably bat anywhere between .280 and .310 next year. I have no idea where on that range he'll fall, but if you set the over/under at .300 and made me bet on it, I'll take the under.

 

One thing I will say...if the Cubs decide to go into 2009 with Theriot as their starting shortstop, I think it would be wise for them to give him more days off throughout the season. He tailed off the last couple months of the season. His September last year was a disaster.

 

 

Edited to snip all the quoting.

[nilodnayr]

Ok well I was proved wrong there, but why do you think there's not chance he'll bat .300 next year?

 

I never said there was no chance. My guess is that he'd probably bat anywhere between .280 and .310 next year. I have no idea where on that range he'll fall, but if you set the over/under at .300 and made me bet on it, I'll take the under.

 

One thing I will say...if the Cubs decide to go into 2009 with Theriot as their starting shortstop, I think it would be wise for them to give him more days off throughout the season. He tailed off the last couple months of the season. His September last year was a disaster.

 

 

Edited to snip all the quoting.

 

Well according to Shandler a true 300 hitter has a contact rate of at least 86% (because a strike out is always an out, whereas a ball in play has a chance of being a hit) and a walk rate of at least 11% (which measures selectivity, the more you walk, most likely the better batting eye, meaning you don't swing at pitches out of the zone).

 

Its a good rule of thumb, but I'd also add in a bit more detail about the type of contact made. A guy who meets that criteria who hits all FBs, but without much power is not going to be a true 300 hitter. A guy who barely misses the threshold but hits a ton of LDs is going to be a true 300 hitter. A guy whos around the threshold and hits very few FBs, a decent amount of LDs and a lot of GBs, well hes a guy that is sorta a 300 hitter. Meaning that while he really IS a true 300 hitter, the variance of his average is going to be larger than normal that of a normal players. Basically, Theriot's average is more dependent on luck than other players. FBs (without power) are usually outs, LDs are usually hits, GBs, well its up to luck whether or not you hit it at someone. This is the category that Theriot falls into. He had an 11.2% BB rate and only a 10% K rate. His batted balls for 2008 (note, hes changed himself as a hitter this year from last) are 23.2%LD, 56.6%GB, 20.2%FB. Hes basically turned himself into the batter who faces ground ball pitchers (except for the fact that he has an above average walk rate and GB pitchers issue lower than average walks).

 

So, while Theriot IS a true 300 hitter in the absence of luck, with good luck, he could contend for a batting title, with bad luck he could be worse than a replacement player. Thats something you can't really say about any other player.

[italianocubsfan7]

Why don't the Cubs just try and sign Manny Ramirez to a 6-year, $115 million contract this winter. All problems would be solved then, right?

[UMFan83]

Why don't the Cubs just try and sign Manny Ramirez to a 6-year, $115 million contract this winter. All problems would be solved then, right?

 

As long as we frontload it. I'd prefer to pay him this way:

 

Year 1: $50 million

Year 2: $60 million

Year 3: $1.25 million

Year 4: $1.25 million

Year 5: $1.25 million

Year 6: $1.25 million

[JWCUB]

Cubs Searching For Lefthanded Bat

By Tim Dierkes [October 22, 2008 at 9:54am CST]

Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune talked to Cubs GM Jim Hendry, while Chris De Luca of the Chicago Sun-Times chatted with manager Lou Piniella. Both said the Cubs are looking to add lefthanded hitting. De Luca believes Brian Roberts and Raul Ibanez remain on Hendry's radar.

 

I mentioned most of the feasible names in the Cubs Offseason Outlook. Since right field is difficult to play at Wrigley field, players such as Milton Bradley and Ibanez are a questionable fit. I believe the ideal acquisition would be Brian Giles, but he'd have to be willing to waive his no-trade clause.

 

Sullivan mentions an idea that is popular with Cubs fans: trading first baseman Derek Lee. Freeing up first base would expand the Cubs' options greatly. Lee is owed $26MM over the next two seasons and has a full no-trade clause. He hit .291/.361/.462 in 698 plate appearances, down significantly from '07. Lee's '08 performance was right around league average for his position. His defense was a bit above-average this year.

 

I think Lee has positive trade value, especially in a weak first baseman market. The Yankees and Giants could be fits, though I wouldn't expect them to give up anything spectacular (especially since a concession would have to be made for Lee to waive his no-trade). Randy Winn could be a match for the Cubs.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/10/cubs-searching.html

 

Really nothing new. A lot more talk of trading Lee though. :-k I wonder if this is all media and fan talk, or if internaly the Cubs are discussing this.

[Proven Veteran]

The cubs already have a lefty second baseman. :flame:

[JWCUB]

Cubs eye Abreu and Teixeira

 

Left-handed hitters and switch-hitters who could be available include free agents Bobby Abreu and Mark Teixeira along with Brian Roberts and Coco Crisp, who may be on the trading block again. Abreu and Teixeira will command lucrative long-term deals. The Cubs would have to trade Derrek Lee if they wanted to sign Teixeira, and Lee has a no-trade clause. -- Chicago Tribune

 

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/rumors/mlb

[Clem Fandango]

Rotoworlds take on the Roberts/Ibanez thing...

 

According to the Chicago Sun-Times, Brian Roberts and Raul Ibanez remain on the Cubs' radar after failed attempts to land the veterans.

The Cubs tried to trade for Roberts last winter and for Ibanez over the summer. Ibanez will be a free agent after the World Series, but Roberts would still have to be acquired through a trade and he's probably not going to be any less expensive now than he was a year ago. If the Cubs could land him, they'd probably make Mark DeRosa their primary right fielder.

[Clem Fandango]

Cubs eye Abreu and Teixeira

 

Left-handed hitters and switch-hitters who could be available include free agents Bobby Abreu and Mark Teixeira along with Brian Roberts and Coco Crisp, who may be on the trading block again. Abreu and Teixeira will command lucrative long-term deals. The Cubs would have to trade Derrek Lee if they wanted to sign Teixeira, and Lee has a no-trade clause. -- Chicago Tribune

 

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/rumors/mlb

 

Now that could be interesting. Now I kind of want Derrek Lee to go.

[nilodnayr]

Cubs eye Abreu and Teixeira

 

Left-handed hitters and switch-hitters who could be available include free agents Bobby Abreu and Mark Teixeira along with Brian Roberts and Coco Crisp, who may be on the trading block again. Abreu and Teixeira will command lucrative long-term deals. The Cubs would have to trade Derrek Lee if they wanted to sign Teixeira, and Lee has a no-trade clause. -- Chicago Tribune

 

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/rumors/mlb

 

Now that could be interesting. Now I kind of want Derrek Lee to go.

 

Where is this money coming from?

[laurens]

Cubs eye Abreu and Teixeira

 

Left-handed hitters and switch-hitters who could be available include free agents Bobby Abreu and Mark Teixeira along with Brian Roberts and Coco Crisp, who may be on the trading block again. Abreu and Teixeira will command lucrative long-term deals. The Cubs would have to trade Derrek Lee if they wanted to sign Teixeira, and Lee has a no-trade clause. -- Chicago Tribune

 

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/rumors/mlb

 

Now that could be interesting. Now I kind of want Derrek Lee to go.

 

Where is this money coming from?

 

Who cares? I want Tex :eek:

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Cubs eye Abreu and Teixeira

 

Left-handed hitters and switch-hitters who could be available include free agents Bobby Abreu and Mark Teixeira along with Brian Roberts and Coco Crisp, who may be on the trading block again. Abreu and Teixeira will command lucrative long-term deals. The Cubs would have to trade Derrek Lee if they wanted to sign Teixeira, and Lee has a no-trade clause. -- Chicago Tribune

 

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/rumors/mlb

 

Now that could be interesting. Now I kind of want Derrek Lee to go.

 

Where is this money coming from?

 

Trading Lee? Not bringing Wood back? Trading Marquis?

[Backtobanks]

Personally, I would rather go after Hermida or McLouth than people like Ibanez or Abreu. If we're looking for a blockbuster, go after Beltran.

[nilodnayr]

Cubs eye Abreu and Teixeira

 

Left-handed hitters and switch-hitters who could be available include free agents Bobby Abreu and Mark Teixeira along with Brian Roberts and Coco Crisp, who may be on the trading block again. Abreu and Teixeira will command lucrative long-term deals. The Cubs would have to trade Derrek Lee if they wanted to sign Teixeira, and Lee has a no-trade clause. -- Chicago Tribune

 

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/rumors/mlb

 

Now that could be interesting. Now I kind of want Derrek Lee to go.

 

Where is this money coming from?

 

Trading Lee? Not bringing Wood back? Trading Marquis?

 

Trading Lee lops off 13M from 2008

Not brining back Wood lops of 7.5M from 2008

Trading Marquis lops off 6.375 from 2008

 

Grand total of about $27M saved over 2008 budget from the guys you mentioned

 

We'll also lose Howrys 4M, Liebers 3.5M and Wards 1.2M, for roughly $36M total

 

Now lets look at the increase in salaries from 2008 to 2009

Z=2.75M

ARAM=1.65M

Sori=3M

Lilly=5M

Fukudome=5.5M

Dempster=lets assume 7M (increase from 5.5M to 12.5M)

DeRo=.75M

Harden=5M

Gaudin, Johnson, Wuertz, Cotts, and Cedeno go to arbi, lets estimate $3M more total.

 

So thats roughly $34M in increases meaning net net, we can drop our firstbaseman (without any reasonable subsitute), our closer (without adding another back of the BP guy), and our 5th starter (with a more than viable replacement) and save a whopping $2M from the 2008 payroll to go out there and throw at Tex!

 

Now the above doesn't include signing bonuses. I don't think anyone is really sure how MLB teams account for them. Additionally, Crane did say that the payroll could be bumped. But all in all, the point of the exercise is to show that the Cubs are gonig to need a payroll bump to bring back the same team and even will need a bump if they get rid of Marquis and don't sign Wood. Where this money is coming from to throw at Tex, I still have no clue.

[illiniguy]

Why don't the Cubs just try and sign Manny Ramirez to a 6-year, $115 million contract this winter. All problems would be solved then, right?

 

As long as we frontload it. I'd prefer to pay him this way:

 

Year 1: $50 million

Year 2: $60 million

Year 3: $1.25 million

Year 4: $1.25 million

Year 5: $1.25 million

Year 6: $1.25 million

Can you imagine the effort Manny would be giving by year 5 and 6 of that deal?

[RedFlash]

Why don't the Cubs just try and sign Manny Ramirez to a 6-year, $115 million contract this winter. All problems would be solved then, right?

 

As long as we frontload it. I'd prefer to pay him this way:

 

Year 1: $50 million

Year 2: $60 million

Year 3: $1.25 million

Year 4: $1.25 million

Year 5: $1.25 million

Year 6: $1.25 million

Can you imagine the effort Manny would be giving by year 5 and 6 of that deal?

 

Yeah, but he wouldn't be too hard to move at that price. The problem would be by yr 5 and 6 would be if he's still hitting like Manny Ramirez or Manny Castillo.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Where is this money coming from?

 

Trading Lee? Not bringing Wood back? Trading Marquis?

 

Trading Lee lops off 13M from 2008

Not brining back Wood lops of 7.5M from 2008

Trading Marquis lops off 6.375 from 2008

 

Grand total of about $27M saved over 2008 budget from the guys you mentioned

 

We'll also lose Howrys 4M, Liebers 3.5M and Wards 1.2M, for roughly $36M total

 

Now lets look at the increase in salaries from 2008 to 2009

Z=2.75M

ARAM=1.65M

Sori=3M

Lilly=5M

Fukudome=5.5M

Dempster=lets assume 7M (increase from 5.5M to 12.5M)

DeRo=.75M

Harden=5M

Gaudin, Johnson, Wuertz, Cotts, and Cedeno go to arbi, lets estimate $3M more total.

 

So thats roughly $34M in increases meaning net net, we can drop our firstbaseman (without any reasonable subsitute), our closer (without adding another back of the BP guy), and our 5th starter (with a more than viable replacement) and save a whopping $2M from the 2008 payroll to go out there and throw at Tex!

 

Now the above doesn't include signing bonuses. I don't think anyone is really sure how MLB teams account for them. Additionally, Crane did say that the payroll could be bumped. But all in all, the point of the exercise is to show that the Cubs are gonig to need a payroll bump to bring back the same team and even will need a bump if they get rid of Marquis and don't sign Wood. Where this money is coming from to throw at Tex, I still have no clue.

 

Harden is only a 2.5 mil increase, from 4.5 to 7.

 

I had a bit of a simpler exercise in mind. Would you agree that money wouldn't be a problem in the team bringing back Wood and Dempster(within reason of course)? I hope so, because that's the assumption I'm running with. To simplify, let's say Dempster would sign 4/50 and Wood 3/30. Trading Lee and not bringing Wood back is 23 million. Teixeira for ~20 mil and Cruz for ~5 is right there and it fits easily with any type of backloading on Teixeira's deal. If Lee brought you back a good SP, then you don't have to bring back Dempster, or you can drop Marquis' expiring contract on whoever wants his innings, that frees up an additional 6-12 million.

[illiniguy]

Instead of Dunn I would offer Bonds the minimum. See if he really would play at that rate.

[nilodnayr]

Where is this money coming from?

 

Trading Lee? Not bringing Wood back? Trading Marquis?

 

Trading Lee lops off 13M from 2008

Not brining back Wood lops of 7.5M from 2008

Trading Marquis lops off 6.375 from 2008

 

Grand total of about $27M saved over 2008 budget from the guys you mentioned

 

We'll also lose Howrys 4M, Liebers 3.5M and Wards 1.2M, for roughly $36M total

 

Now lets look at the increase in salaries from 2008 to 2009

Z=2.75M

ARAM=1.65M

Sori=3M

Lilly=5M

Fukudome=5.5M

Dempster=lets assume 7M (increase from 5.5M to 12.5M)

DeRo=.75M

Harden=5M

Gaudin, Johnson, Wuertz, Cotts, and Cedeno go to arbi, lets estimate $3M more total.

 

So thats roughly $34M in increases meaning net net, we can drop our firstbaseman (without any reasonable subsitute), our closer (without adding another back of the BP guy), and our 5th starter (with a more than viable replacement) and save a whopping $2M from the 2008 payroll to go out there and throw at Tex!

 

Now the above doesn't include signing bonuses. I don't think anyone is really sure how MLB teams account for them. Additionally, Crane did say that the payroll could be bumped. But all in all, the point of the exercise is to show that the Cubs are gonig to need a payroll bump to bring back the same team and even will need a bump if they get rid of Marquis and don't sign Wood. Where this money is coming from to throw at Tex, I still have no clue.

 

Harden is only a 2.5 mil increase, from 4.5 to 7.

 

I had a bit of a simpler exercise in mind. Would you agree that money wouldn't be a problem in the team bringing back Wood and Dempster(within reason of course)? I hope so, because that's the assumption I'm running with. To simplify, let's say Dempster would sign 4/50 and Wood 3/30. Trading Lee and not bringing Wood back is 23 million. Teixeira for ~20 mil and Cruz for ~5 is right there and it fits easily with any type of backloading on Teixeira's deal. If Lee brought you back a good SP, then you don't have to bring back Dempster, or you can drop Marquis' expiring contract on whoever wants his innings, that frees up an additional 6-12 million.

 

We didn't have Harden for the entire year so we didn't pay his entire salary. Hence, for the Cubs, Harden's salary will increase ~$5M.

 

As for your assumption. I think based on what we are hearing on Wood, its not a safe one. I also think they are banking on trading away most of Marquis' money. In total, we can bring back the same team (minus Howry, Lieber, Ward) with Demp at 4/50 and Wood at 3/30, we are looking at a $150M payroll. Thats over a $30M bump from this year. Last year we also got a $20M spike. To put that in perspective, in the 6 years from 2001-2006, our payroll increased $30M.

 

Getting rid of Marquis and not re-signing Wood puts us back down to $130, which seems pretty reasonable to me. $10M is a bump, $30M is an out and out bonanza. Your scenario only works if that decent pitcher that we get back makes no money and is good enough to allow us to have faith in our pitching depth to get rid of 2/5ths of our rotation (ie Matt Cain). And frankly, I don't think Lee for Cain is all that likely.

[mordecaibrown]

Any interest in Chone Figgins?

OBP is solid and can play several positions

 

The Cubs have already gone down the Brian Roberts road, and I seriously doubt Hendry will try that again. In my opinion I believe the Cubs need one lefty speed/contact guy (Kenny Lofton in 03) just for the postseason alone.

[nilodnayr]

Any interest in Chone Figgins?

OBP is solid and can play several positions

 

The Cubs have already gone down the Brian Roberts road, and I seriously doubt Hendry will try that again. In my opinion I believe the Cubs need one lefty speed/contact guy (Kenny Lofton in 03) just for the postseason alone.

 

A version of Theriot thats can't even play shortstop? Where do I sign!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Rob]

I know this rumor probably wasn't worth much when it was floating around, but apparently the Giants were looking at Derrek Lee as a trade target.

 

Lee + Pie +- ??? = Cain +- ???

 

I don't know how to even that out, considering Sabean's hatred of young guys. Anyway, that's a consideration... toss in prospects as necessary.

 

Lilly + DeRosa + Wuertz = Beltran + Moviel + cash

 

Try to sign Teix.

 

Toss Marquis at anybody willing to pick up his salary.

 

Since the Orioles are so hard-up at the SS position, see about a Theriot - Guthrie swap... add prospects wherever...

 

C - Soto

1B - Teixeira

2B - Fontenot

SS - Cedeno

3B - Ramirez

LF - Soriano

CF - Beltran

RF - Fukudome

 

K. Hill, Hoffpauir and Johnson as notables on the bench...

 

SP - Zambrano

SP - Harden

SP - Cain

SP - Guthrie

SP - Marshall

 

RP - Marmol

RP - Samardzija

RP - Guzman

RP - Gaudin

RP - Hart

RP - Cotts

 

That might crap out the rest of our farm system (esp. trying to even out the Cain trade)... but we'd gain a net of 3 picks... losing the #32 overall for signing Teix, but gaining 2 supplementals and 2 picks for Demp and Wood that could fall anywhere from the bottom of the first round to the top of the 2nd. This is achievable with a modest payroll bump, and I could definitely live with that team.

[Post Count Padder]

As much as I like Lee, trading him gives us a lot of options.

 

And signing Texiera would be a huge upgrade and big boost to the offense.

[Backtobanks]

As much as I like Lee, trading him gives us a lot of options.

 

And signing Texiera would be a huge upgrade and big boost to the offense.

 

Trading Lee doesn't give us a lot of options unless we know what we get back. Signing Texiera won't be easy with 5-6 teams offering insane money.

[shnsajax]

Just for fun:

 

Roberts - 2nd

Theroit - SS

Teixeira - 1st

Ramirez - 3rd

Soto - C

Soriano - LF

Derosa - RF

Pie/Fuku/Edmonds - CF