Post game discussion

[MasterBlaster]

Depressing.

 

Soriano walking back to the dugout with his head down after his first at bat. Dude needs to man the freak up.

 

Losing on Thursday will pretty much end it.

[Irrelevant Dude]

Based on Derek Lowe's post-game comments, I expect him to start Game 4 on short rest if the series goes that far. I was hoping to get a shot at Maddux, but it doesn't appear that will happen.

[big_shooter17]

I wish that we played tomorrow afternoon, so that we wouldn't have to wait so long for the Cubs to get this game back.

[third eye]

I'm going to bring it back to the crowd making a dicey situation a lot worse by acting like they watching a kitten get stabbed all day.

 

If the crowd stays tight like that, the players are going to respond.

 

The crowd can't handle a deficit in the playoffs, they think the 99 years of previous failure are connected to today's performance. Clearly has a major effect on the players.

 

I'm going to keep asking this question until I get an answer:

 

How much epic underperformance under how long of a sample has to occur before we accept the fact that even some tiny portion of the things that remain consistent in the organization have an effect? 10 playoff games? 100 playoff games? 1000?

 

OK, as much as I hate to admit it, there is an atmosphere created with expectations at the ballpark that has to have some, if even mildly marginal, impact on the players. It was there in game 7 in 2003. The atmosphere was rife with it last year in game 3 when I was there. To the extent that players are more likely to produce at career norms when the weight of boo's driven by decades of futility doesn't interfere, maybe...maybe there can be a marginal difference in performance. I kind of hate the fact that fans got on the team for its performance today. It probably doesn't cause a material difference in performance, but i agree that stress levels for the players can sometimes be exogenously determined. That matters more in a game like baseball than other sports IMO.

[MasterBlaster]

One thing that will be annoying is the complete panic that the city and fans will be in tomorrow about "Z The Head Case".

 

Also, if we fall behind the crowd is going to be a liability again. Like they were tonight, when they were complete crap. That was embarrasing. Completely embarrasing home field.

Heck yeah, that crowd played like crap.

[Wilson A2000]

I'm going to bring it back to the crowd making a dicey situation a lot worse by acting like they watching a kitten get stabbed all day.

 

If the crowd stays tight like that, the players are going to respond.

 

I get so sick of hearing arguments like this. We're talking about professional athletes here, not preschoolers playing soccer. If they're really affected that much by the fans being quiet or booing, then frankly they need to find something else to do or somewhere else to play.

 

+1

 

Kerry Wood, the quintessential "tough Cub player," has publicly admitted that when the crowd gets down on him when he is pitching poorly, it affects him negatively. Do you want him to play somewhere else?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Odds of trash ending up on the field if things get bad tomorrow? I mean, lots of trash?

[Irrelevant Dude]

Comcast Sports Net post-game poll - 55.7% of fans believe that we will see "Too emotional Z" tomorrow.

[big_shooter17]

A guy on WGN just was talking about how Dick Stockton cost us the game from what I think that I heard.

[big_shooter17]

Comcast Sports Net post-game poll - 55.7% of fans believe that we will see "Too emotional Z" tomorrow.

Too emotional Z isn't always bad.

[Moises a loo]

 

What sample are you talking about? We have the entire sample of baseball history to tell us how hard it is to win 3 games out of any four.

 

Here's how I look at it: The Cubs lost the first game of the season this year. It sucked. Then they won 3 of the next 4. Then they hit the road and won 3 of 4. Then they won 3 of the next 4. They've won 3 out of 4 games lots of times this year. Course the Dodgers have won 2 of 4 lots of times too, I bet. But the point is, no one wants to hear objective analysis right now. They want to bitch and whine with other people who feel as bad as they do, and maybe receive a little hope if it's available from anyone. Going around showing off how uninvested you are in the team may make you feel all superior, but it's probably not helpful to very many people, just in case you were thinking it was.

[Guest]

I'm going to bring it back to the crowd making a dicey situation a lot worse by acting like they watching a kitten get stabbed all day.

 

If the crowd stays tight like that, the players are going to respond.

 

The crowd can't handle a deficit in the playoffs, they think the 99 years of previous failure are connected to today's performance. Clearly has a major effect on the players.

 

Then those players need to be playing somewhere else, because they're not mentally tough enough to handle the pressure of the playoffs. There are fans of World Series-winning teams that are a hell of a lot harder on their clubs than Cub fans, and it didn't seem to bother those teams.

 

They're major league baseball players, they're not unemotional robots.

 

World Series-winning teams don't have 100 years of losing pressure packed on them by their fans.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

What sample are you talking about? We have the entire sample of baseball history to tell us how hard it is to win 3 games out of any four.

 

Here's how I look at it: The Cubs lost the first game of the season this year. It sucked. Then they won 3 of the next 4. Then they hit the road and won 3 of 4. Then they won 3 of the next 4. They've won 3 out of 4 games lots of times this year. Course the Dodgers have won 2 of 4 lots of times too, I bet. But the point is, no one wants to hear objective analysis right now. They want to bitch and whine with other people who feel as bad as they do, and maybe receive a little hope if it's available from anyone. Going around showing off how uninvested you are in the team may make you feel all superior, but it's probably not helpful to very many people, just in case you were thinking it was.

 

Can people go four posts in this thread without telling me what my emotions are? I know how I feel, and so far it's not what you people keep trying to ascribe to me.

 

This is the Cubs message board. We talk about the Cubs.

 

Statistical analysis has a lot to do with our talk about the Cubs.

 

Until I see a sign that says "no statistical analysis when it looks bad for the Cubs," I'm going to continue to post statistical analysis about the Cubs, good or bad.

[big_shooter17]

 

What sample are you talking about? We have the entire sample of baseball history to tell us how hard it is to win 3 games out of any four.

 

Here's how I look at it: The Cubs lost the first game of the season this year. It sucked. Then they won 3 of the next 4. Then they hit the road and won 3 of 4. Then they won 3 of the next 4. They've won 3 out of 4 games lots of times this year. Course the Dodgers have won 2 of 4 lots of times too, I bet. But the point is, no one wants to hear objective analysis right now. They want to bitch and whine with other people who feel as bad as they do, and maybe receive a little hope if it's available from anyone. Going around showing off how uninvested you are in the team may make you feel all superior, but it's probably not helpful to very many people, just in case you were thinking it was.

Thank you, someone else is getting it!

[17 Seconds]

 

What sample are you talking about? We have the entire sample of baseball history to tell us how hard it is to win 3 games out of any four.

 

Here's how I look at it: The Cubs lost the first game of the season this year. It sucked. Then they won 3 of the next 4. Then they hit the road and won 3 of 4. Then they won 3 of the next 4. They've won 3 out of 4 games lots of times this year. Course the Dodgers have won 2 of 4 lots of times too, I bet. But the point is, no one wants to hear objective analysis right now. They want to bitch and whine with other people who feel as bad as they do, and maybe receive a little hope if it's available from anyone. Going around showing off how uninvested you are in the team may make you feel all superior, but it's probably not helpful to very many people, just in case you were thinking it was.

 

Can people go four posts in this thread without telling me what my emotions are? I know how I feel, and so far it's not what you people keep trying to ascribe to me.

 

This is the Cubs message board. We talk about the Cubs.

 

Statistical analysis has a lot to do with our talk about the Cubs.

 

Until I see a sign that says "no statistical analysis when it looks bad for the Cubs," I'm going to continue to post statistical analysis about the Cubs, good or bad.

 

Still waiting for you to post the statistic I asked for

[IowaCubsFan]

I'm going to bring it back to the crowd making a dicey situation a lot worse by acting like they watching a kitten get stabbed all day.

 

If the crowd stays tight like that, the players are going to respond.

 

The crowd can't handle a deficit in the playoffs, they think the 99 years of previous failure are connected to today's performance. Clearly has a major effect on the players.

 

Then those players need to be playing somewhere else, because they're not mentally tough enough to handle the pressure of the playoffs. There are fans of World Series-winning teams that are a hell of a lot harder on their clubs than Cub fans, and it didn't seem to bother those teams.

 

They're major league baseball players, they're not unemotional robots.

 

World Series-winning teams don't have 100 years of losing pressure packed on them by their fans.

 

The fans aren't unemotional robots either. The Red Sox and White Sox were still able to win WS with 80+ year championship droughts hanging over their heads, compliments of their fans. I fail to see why the Cub players shouldn't be expected to act in similar fashion as those teams.

[USSoccer]

I'm going to bring it back to the crowd making a dicey situation a lot worse by acting like they watching a kitten get stabbed all day.

 

If the crowd stays tight like that, the players are going to respond.

 

The crowd can't handle a deficit in the playoffs, they think the 99 years of previous failure are connected to today's performance. Clearly has a major effect on the players.

 

Then those players need to be playing somewhere else, because they're not mentally tough enough to handle the pressure of the playoffs. There are fans of World Series-winning teams that are a hell of a lot harder on their clubs than Cub fans, and it didn't seem to bother those teams.

 

They're major league baseball players, they're not unemotional robots.

 

World Series-winning teams don't have 100 years of losing pressure packed on them by their fans.

 

The fans aren't unemotional robots either. The Red Sox and White Sox were still able to win WS with 80+ year championship droughts hanging over their heads, compliments of their fans. I fail to see why the Cub players shouldn't be expected to act in similar fashion as those teams.

 

Because in the years that they broke those droughts, their fans went all in.

 

Our fans dont-or didn't tonight.

[big_shooter17]

I'm not sure why no one is pointing out how Billingsley has had struggles. In 8 of his 32 starts, he has given up 4 or more ER.

[third eye]

I've actually been on board with most of what you've had to say the last two years. And you've provided good statistical reason to be. We are simply not in a place where the sample size of any of these measures can predict a whole lot. Jumping on or off the optimist/pessimist bandwagon just doesn't really do justice to the logical arguments that preceded the post season. Yes, the better players give you the better chance to win, and being down a game in a short series sucks. I just see very little predictive value in the historical precedents when you aggregate series. It's not the same thing.

 

We can wait for THT or BP to do a more detailed analysis, but as I said earlier, math is hard an I can't do that by hand.

 

You are right that we do have a slightly better chance than the average team down 0-1 because we are a superior team to the Dodgers. And while we face a bad matchup tomorrow, we do have three straight pitching matchups that favor us.

 

But the fact of the matter is, the Cubs are not a .750 team in the long run vs. the Dodgers, so there is no reason to expect it now. If we get it, great, but the odds are long.

 

I agree with the fact that over a large sample size, we are not a .750 team against anybody. My only point is that sample sized go out the window in these cases. Hey (sarcasm intended), no team had won three straight games against three different opponents in 3 days before yesterday. I know that this is not the same story, but stats that cite success in that small of a sample size are bound to fail in predictive terms. Yes, the odds are against the Cubs now. But the odds in this circumstance are not that useful in predictive terms.

 

What sample are you talking about? We have the entire sample of baseball history to tell us how hard it is to win 3 games out of any four.

 

Dude, I agree with almost everything you've said. Except that grabbing small sample sizes from series (that determine the end of a season) and adding them together doesn't equal a large sample size. It can, if you introduce the right set of variables. But the conditional probabilities don't add up the same way. I won't take this argument any further, because, again, I agree with most of what you have said. I just don't agree with the predictive value, when it comes to 3-5 more games, is all that meaningful.

[IowaCubsFan]

I'm going to bring it back to the crowd making a dicey situation a lot worse by acting like they watching a kitten get stabbed all day.

 

If the crowd stays tight like that, the players are going to respond.

 

The crowd can't handle a deficit in the playoffs, they think the 99 years of previous failure are connected to today's performance. Clearly has a major effect on the players.

 

Then those players need to be playing somewhere else, because they're not mentally tough enough to handle the pressure of the playoffs. There are fans of World Series-winning teams that are a hell of a lot harder on their clubs than Cub fans, and it didn't seem to bother those teams.

 

They're major league baseball players, they're not unemotional robots.

 

World Series-winning teams don't have 100 years of losing pressure packed on them by their fans.

 

The fans aren't unemotional robots either. The Red Sox and White Sox were still able to win WS with 80+ year championship droughts hanging over their heads, compliments of their fans. I fail to see why the Cub players shouldn't be expected to act in similar fashion as those teams.

 

Because in the years that they broke those droughts, their fans went all in.

 

Our fans dont-or didn't tonight.

 

Yeah. The Red Sox fans went "all-in" after Game 3 of the ALCS. Sure they were.

[Electron Blue]

Comcast Sports Net post-game poll - 55.7% of fans believe that we will see "Too emotional Z" tomorrow.

Too emotional Z isn't always bad.

 

Actually, I think it would be. If he's "too" emotional, than his emotions exceeded some level. :)

[IowaCubsFan]

I'm not sure why no one is pointing out how Billingsley has had struggles. In 8 of his 32 starts, he has given up 4 or more ER.

 

and in 24 of his 32 starts, he's given up 3 or less ER.

 

Which one is more likely to happen?

Edited October 2, 2008 by IowaCubsFan

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Here's how I look at it: The Cubs lost the first game of the season this year. It sucked. Then they won 3 of the next 4. Then they hit the road and won 3 of 4. Then they won 3 of the next 4. They've won 3 out of 4 games lots of times this year.

 

19 times out 62 losses by my count just now (not counting the 2 losses where we didn't have four more games left to play).

[Guest]

I'm going to bring it back to the crowd making a dicey situation a lot worse by acting like they watching a kitten get stabbed all day.

 

If the crowd stays tight like that, the players are going to respond.

 

The crowd can't handle a deficit in the playoffs, they think the 99 years of previous failure are connected to today's performance. Clearly has a major effect on the players.

 

Then those players need to be playing somewhere else, because they're not mentally tough enough to handle the pressure of the playoffs. There are fans of World Series-winning teams that are a hell of a lot harder on their clubs than Cub fans, and it didn't seem to bother those teams.

 

They're major league baseball players, they're not unemotional robots.

 

World Series-winning teams don't have 100 years of losing pressure packed on them by their fans.

 

The fans aren't unemotional robots either. The Red Sox and White Sox were still able to win WS with 80+ year championship droughts hanging over their heads, compliments of their fans. I fail to see why the Cub players shouldn't be expected to act in similar fashion as those teams.

 

White Sox fans didn't see to share a similar edge as Red Sox and Cubs fans. And the Red Sox apparently got drunk before game 4 of the 2004 ALCS.

 

I am not blaming the fans for being emotional, but you can't expect the players to not feed off it. It doesn't mean they aren't capable of handling pressure, it just means there is a cap on the amount of pressure they can handle.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

What sample are you talking about? We have the entire sample of baseball history to tell us how hard it is to win 3 games out of any four.

 

Here's how I look at it: The Cubs lost the first game of the season this year. It sucked. Then they won 3 of the next 4. Then they hit the road and won 3 of 4. Then they won 3 of the next 4. They've won 3 out of 4 games lots of times this year. Course the Dodgers have won 2 of 4 lots of times too, I bet. But the point is, no one wants to hear objective analysis right now. They want to bitch and whine with other people who feel as bad as they do, and maybe receive a little hope if it's available from anyone. Going around showing off how uninvested you are in the team may make you feel all superior, but it's probably not helpful to very many people, just in case you were thinking it was.

 

Can people go four posts in this thread without telling me what my emotions are? I know how I feel, and so far it's not what you people keep trying to ascribe to me.

 

This is the Cubs message board. We talk about the Cubs.

 

Statistical analysis has a lot to do with our talk about the Cubs.

 

Until I see a sign that says "no statistical analysis when it looks bad for the Cubs," I'm going to continue to post statistical analysis about the Cubs, good or bad.

 

Still waiting for you to post the statistic I asked for

 

Refresh my memory. Which?