Post game discussion

[Skyballer]

 

What sample are you talking about? We have the entire sample of baseball history to tell us how hard it is to win 3 games out of any four.

 

Here's how I look at it: The Cubs lost the first game of the season this year. It sucked. Then they won 3 of the next 4. Then they hit the road and won 3 of 4. Then they won 3 of the next 4. They've won 3 out of 4 games lots of times this year. Course the Dodgers have won 2 of 4 lots of times too, I bet. But the point is, no one wants to hear objective analysis right now. They want to bitch and whine with other people who feel as bad as they do, and maybe receive a little hope if it's available from anyone. Going around showing off how uninvested you are in the team may make you feel all superior, but it's probably not helpful to very many people, just in case you were thinking it was.

 

Can people go four posts in this thread without telling me what my emotions are? I know how I feel, and so far it's not what you people keep trying to ascribe to me.

 

This is the Cubs message board. We talk about the Cubs.

 

Statistical analysis has a lot to do with our talk about the Cubs.

 

Until I see a sign that says "no statistical analysis when it looks bad for the Cubs," I'm going to continue to post statistical analysis about the Cubs, good or bad.

 

Still waiting for you to post the statistic I asked for

 

Refresh my memory. Which?

I believe that would be what is the all time record of teams losing game 1 of a division series.

[big_shooter17]

I'm not sure why no one is pointing out how Billingsley has had struggles. In 8 of his 32 starts, he has given up 4 or more ER.

 

and in 24 of his 32 starts, he's given up 3 or less ER.

 

Which one is more likely to happen?

 

I dunno, I am looking for something. It is just that a lot of people are talking about Z's inconsistencies and looking at his numbers, he has been shelled in some games as well including one against the Pirates recently.

[Guest]

I'm not sure why no one is pointing out how Billingsley has had struggles. In 8 of his 32 starts, he has given up 4 or more ER.

 

and in 24 of his 32 starts, he's given up 3 or less ER.

 

Which one is more likely to happen?

 

I dunno, I am looking for something. It is just that a lot of people are talking about Z's inconsistencies and looking at his numbers, he has been shelled in some games as well including one against the Pirates recently.

 

Billingsley had a really bad start a few weeks ago against the Pirates. The Pirates.

 

(It was 2 starts ago on 9/17: 4.2 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 6 ER)

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I just got 13-39 when counting on B-R. Counting by hand, so it may be give or take one.

[woodprior04]

Reasons this series is far from over:

 

-We still have the best team in baseball

-We still have the best pitcher in baseball going in game 3, and this time he will be allowed to throw more than 6 innings

-Lilly has pitched outstanding the last 2 months, and is better than Maddux or Lowe on 3 days' rest

-There should be plenty of Cub fans when we go to LA

-We didn't use Marmol or Wood

 

Thats all I got. It all comes down to Z tomorrow. We win tomorrow and I think we win this series.

Edited October 2, 2008 by woodprior04

[big_shooter17]

I'm not sure why no one is pointing out how Billingsley has had struggles. In 8 of his 32 starts, he has given up 4 or more ER.

 

and in 24 of his 32 starts, he's given up 3 or less ER.

 

Which one is more likely to happen?

 

I dunno, I am looking for something. It is just that a lot of people are talking about Z's inconsistencies and looking at his numbers, he has been shelled in some games as well including one against the Pirates recently.

 

Billingsley had a really bad start a few weeks ago against the Pirates. The Pirates.

 

(It was 2 starts ago on 9/17: 4.2 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 6 ER)

 

His team is also is 9-9 when going on only 4 days rest. Zambrano is 2-1 with 7 days or more of rest.

Edited October 2, 2008 by big_shooter17

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Reasons this series is far from over:

 

-We still have the best team in baseball

-We still have the best pitcher in baseball going in game 3, and this time he will be allowed to throw more than 6 innings

-Lilly has pitched outstanding the last 2 games, and is far better than Maddux or Lowe on 3 days' rest

-There should be plenty of Cub fans when we go to LA

-We didn't use Marmol or Wood

 

Thats all I got. It all comes down to Z tomorrow. We win tomorrow and I think we win this series.

 

That all sound about right. If we can somehow win tomorrow, someway, we have three straight games with advantageous pitching matchups. Game 3 absurdly so.

[windycityfan]

Coming into the postseason, I believed the key to a successful series was the offense. Color me perplexed our best pitcher laid this turd. The offense didn't help either. I say I'm in full doomsday mode. And I'm usually amongst the last to join.

[ChiCubsFan]

please, please, please win tomorrow. I'm pretty sure whoever wins tomorrow will win the series.

[IowaCubsFan]

Coming into the postseason, I believed the key to a successful series was the offense. Color me perplexed our best pitcher laid this turd. The offense didn't help either. I say I'm in full doomsday mode. And I'm usually amongst the last to join.

 

I'd almost be willing to say that the starters got too much rest down the stretch.

[rickrolled]

http://vinohiiri.pp.fi/images/sekavat/onnistunut_hyppy.gif

[cubsfan26]

I'm not sure why no one is pointing out how Billingsley has had struggles. In 8 of his 32 starts, he has given up 4 or more ER.

 

 

I believe Zambrano has given up 4 runs or more in 10 of his 30 starts. The bad thing is 5 of those 10 games, happen since August 9th. Tomorrow is do or die for the Cubs, if Zambrano can get a win, you still feel ok about the series. I know the odds are bad for teams that lose game one. But most teams don't have pitchers like Harden and Lilly going in game 3 and 4 either.

Edited October 2, 2008 by cubsfan26

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I like funny moving pictures

[rickrolled]

I like funny moving pictures

 

it kind of sums up the day well

[Illini Iceman]

I'm not sure why no one is pointing out how Billingsley has had struggles. In 8 of his 32 starts, he has given up 4 or more ER.

 

and in 24 of his 32 starts, he's given up 3 or less ER.

 

Which one is more likely to happen?

 

Tell me what teams the 24 starts were against and if they were on home or on the road and then the same for the 8 other starts and then maybe it will be possible to make a judgement.

 

I think his point was that with all the hand wringing about which Z will show up it seems to be assumed that Billingsley is going to be lights out.

 

Seems like I am hearing a lot about how lights out Lowe was tonight or how badly the Cubs struggled offensively. Yes, they only had 2 runs, but they had 7 hits against Lowe in 6 innings so they were putting themselves in good positions. Some games you just can't seem to get the big hits when you need them.

 

Hopefully the Cubs can have a big offensive outburst tomorrow and it will relax them a bit. I know it is hard to win 3 of 4 when you put it that way, but in '03 the Cubs won three in a row against the Marlins then rumor has it the Marlins may have done the same right back to the Cubs. In '07 the DBacks beat the Cubs three in a row. In '98 the Braves beat the Cubs three straight. In '89 the Giants split the first two then won 3 in a row against the Cubs. In '84 we all know the Padres won 3 games in a row. So maybe in the big history of the playoffs it doesn't happen much, but in Cubs history it has happened just about every year they have been in the playoffs.

 

Yeah, you can do the the whole "but it is the Cubs and that is why other teams do it to them" but if you are going to be logical the '08 team certainly has nothing to do with '84, '89, '98 or '03 so this '08 team has just as good a chance to do it to the Dodgers than any of those teams above had to do it to the Cubs teams they were playing.

[weis21]

I like funny moving pictures

 

it kind of sums up the day well

I appreciated the metaphor.

[big_shooter17]

Another Billingsley stat that makes me feel good. He ranked 8th in walks this season and we have the team that takes the most walks. We just faced the guy with the 27th best BB/9 rate and Billingsley is 159th in the NL. Billingsley walks 3.59 batters per 9 innings. Just another statistic that shows that we should have a chance. Billingsley plays into one of our great strengths.

[cubsfan26]

Well one thing to keep in mind, is the Cubs actually hit Billingsley pretty well in one start this year. I believe he has 4.91 era against the Cubs in two starts.

[haubrich91]

Saying we have to win 3 out of the next 4 makes it sound impossible.

 

We just have to look at one game at a time. Win tomorrow, and we're tied with Rich Harden pitching Game 3.

[The Other 15]

There is really nothing positive from this. It went about as bad as it could have. They had everything they needed to work for them work, while the Cubs just added more questions to their equation. The Dodgers needed to prove to themselves that they were a completely different team since the last time they played here. Check. Same for the Cubs (what's the opposite of check?) Dodgers needed their key players to play a key role. Check. The Cubs needed to prove that last seasons offensive playoff slumber was just one of those things that happen and not a trend.

 

It's far from over, but the pressure will be on the Cubs for the remainder of this series because of the unfortunate scenario that played out that made Demp a game 1 starter for a rested team. He had been struggling with control for a while now. It's just that now they are forced to start him in a deciding game 5 if they can get there. Just as game one, game 5 will scare the lights out of me.

 

He had a great season and was certainly a most pleasant surprise, but I don't know how he could be considered the best fit for game one and possibly 5 of a playoff series when you have Z and Harden on your roster. They also could have gone the route of the Dodgers and pitched their hottest pitcher (Lilly) in game one. I'm certain that somebody will point out Demps season numbers as a reason, but I'm not ready to anoint Demp a ace just yet. Love the guy and what he did this year, but he shouldn't have been in this situation tonight.

 

For now, it's time to forget tonight and start the series over with Z as the ace who'll be asked to pitch game 5 on short rest.

[UMFan83]

No offense to anyone that posted this but...

 

I'm sick and tired of everyone saying "its ok we have the best team in the NL, we'll come back"

 

You know what having the best record in the NL got us? And extra home game in the playoffs. And we just lost it. It doesn't matter that we scored a lot of runs against mediocre pitching in the regular season, or that Ryan Dempster was able to dominate the Nationals. Right now we have 4 more games against the Dodgers, and we have to go 3-1 in those 4 games or we are going home, and all those other games we played were meaningless.

 

We were a great regular season team, but are we a good postseason team? The jury is still out.

[UMFan83]

There is really nothing positive from this. It went about as bad as it could have. They had everything they needed to work for them work, while the Cubs just added more questions to their equation. The Dodgers needed to prove to themselves that they were a completely different team since the last time they played here. Check. Same for the Cubs (what's the opposite of check?) Dodgers needed their key players to play a key role. Check. The Cubs needed to prove that last seasons offensive playoff slumber was just one of those things that happen and not a trend.

 

It's far from over, but the pressure will be on the Cubs for the remainder of this series because of the unfortunate scenario that played out that made Demp a game 1 starter for a rested team. He had been struggling with control for a while now. It's just that now they are forced to start him in a deciding game 5 if they can get there. Just as game one, game 5 will scare the lights out of me.

 

He had a great season and was certainly a most pleasant surprise, but I don't know how he could be considered the best fit for game one and possibly 5 of a playoff series when you have Z and Harden on your roster. They also could have gone the route of the Dodgers and pitched their hottest pitcher (Lilly) in game one. I'm certain that somebody will point out Demps season numbers as a reason, but I'm not ready to anoint Demp a ace just yet. Love the guy and what he did this year, but he shouldn't have been in this situation tonight.

 

For now, it's time to forget tonight and start the series over with Z as the ace who'll be asked to pitch game 5 on short rest.

 

Technically, Z can pitch game 5 on regular rest if needed.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We were a great regular season team, but are we a good postseason team? The jury is still out.

 

 

If you were a great regular season team, you are a great postseason team. Same rules, same field, same players, same ball.

 

But you are right, being a great team doesn't mean that we aren't probably going home soon.

[UMFan83]

We were a great regular season team, but are we a good postseason team? The jury is still out.

 

 

If you were a great regular season team, you are a great postseason team. Same rules, same field, same players, same ball.

 

But you are right, being a great team doesn't mean that we aren't probably going home soon.

 

Disagree.

 

Regular season we played 18 vs. Pittsburgh, 18 vs. Cinci, 7 vs. Washington, 7 vs. SD, etc. also plenty of games against a teams 4th and 5th starters, who we likely won't see in this series.

[Illini Iceman]

No offense to anyone that posted this but...

 

I'm sick and tired of everyone saying "its ok we have the best team in the NL, we'll come back"

 

You know what having the best record in the NL got us? And extra home game in the playoffs. And we just lost it. It doesn't matter that we scored a lot of runs against mediocre pitching in the regular season, or that Ryan Dempster was able to dominate the Nationals. Right now we have 4 more games against the Dodgers, and we have to go 3-1 in those 4 games or we are going home, and all those other games we played were meaningless.

 

We were a great regular season team, but are we a good postseason team? The jury is still out.

 

Actually it got them the right to have a potential game 5 at home and unless they lose 2 out of the next 3 they will still get that privledge.

 

If the Cubs are going to go deep they need to have Z pitching well. If Z is as unreliable as he somehow has suddenly become depicted as then the Cubs really had no chance to win it all anyway. Hopefully he pitches well and the Cubs get game 2 and then take game 3 with the better match up. Game 4 becomes a coin flip and if they wind up coming up on the wrong end of that game they still have a better matchup in game 5 with Demp against Billingsley than they had tonight against Lowe.

 

I don't believe in there being different regular season and postseason teams. I think the Cubs are just better and like their chances in any game they play against the Dodgers. The fact they came out flat and got outplayed in what happened to be game 1 of the NLDS like they probably did 30 times during the regular season does not suddenly make me think they are doomed to fail.