Re: Time to give Theriot less playing time?

[BigbadB]

He has slumped pretty bad lately.

In the last week, he has stats of .042/.042/.042 for an OPS of .083.

In the last 2 weeks, his stats are .150/.171/.200 for an OPS of .371

In the last month, his stats are .195/.271/.241 for an OPS of .512

 

Cedeno has been a lot better in the last month.

 

.296/.387/.333 for an OPS of .720

 

That is almost the exact OPS as Theriot's OPS for the entire season.

[Shilzzz]

Yes. For that, and I'd imagine defense as well.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Theriot slowed down the stretch last year too. I'd give him most of the week to get his legs back and hope that he'll get back to form by the playoffs.

[B]

Theriot slowed down the stretch last year too. I'd give him most of the week to get his legs back and hope that he'll get back to form by the playoffs.

same here

[Ding Dong Johnson]

he needs a break

[Little Slide Rooter]

Cedeno, on the other hand has been doing OK for himself. Granted, Theriot has been great for most of the seaon, but when October rolls around, its all about whats best to win those last 11 games, and when it comes to your starter vs. the hot hand, you have to go with that hot hand.

[Gingerballs Lives]

I'd like to see Cedeno in there more often.

 

I think he's better.

[TruffleShuffle]

no, you don't make big changes after being the top team in your league all year. as i've been saying for quite a while, theriot wore down heavily last year and it's happening again this year. lou needs to give him most of the next week off and let him get a little more fresh again.

[Peoriaman]

The Riot should get some rest. Anybody that thinks Cedeno is better needs to come back down to earth. I don't actually believe I heard that.

[Tracer Bullet]

If he's really "wearing down" should we be a little concerned that playing 150 games is too much for him? I could understand if he were a catcher or fat like Prince Fielder, but doesn't seem like a SS should tank quite as hard as Theriot does.

 

Of course, in 2007, he didn't so much "wear down" at the end of the year as he just sucked every month except 1. His August was about the same as his April and his September was just a little worse than his June.

[jersey cubs fan]

If he's really "wearing down" should we be a little concerned that playing 150 games is too much for him? I could understand if he were a catcher or fat like Prince Fielder, but doesn't seem like a SS should tank quite as hard as Theriot does.

 

Of course, in 2007, he didn't so much "wear down" at the end of the year as he just sucked every month except 1. His August was about the same as his April and his September was just a little worse than his June.

 

Yeah, it's probably a lot more about regressing to the mean than just getting tired. But you still pretty much have to go with him in the playoffs, so rest him up now and hope he can have a few solid PA in the playoffs.

[SouthSideRyan]

The Riot should get some rest. Anybody that thinks Cedeno is better needs to come back down to earth. I don't actually believe I heard that.

 

He isn't the same shortstop.

[nilodnayr]

If he's really "wearing down" should we be a little concerned that playing 150 games is too much for him? I could understand if he were a catcher or fat like Prince Fielder, but doesn't seem like a SS should tank quite as hard as Theriot does.

 

Of course, in 2007, he didn't so much "wear down" at the end of the year as he just sucked every month except 1. His August was about the same as his April and his September was just a little worse than his June.

 

Well this year hes sucked in every month except for 2. So maybe next year he'll be halfway decent!!!

[sneakypower]

is it really possible to "suck" with a .384 or .407 OBP?

 

some have pretty high standards for offensive production from a league minimum SS

[nilodnayr]

is it really possible to "suck" with a .384 or .407 OBP?

 

some have pretty high standards for offensive production from a league minimum SS

 

2 and 3

 

That is the amount of extra base hits Theriot had in those months respectively.

 

I'm all for OBP, but if you convert those months to wOBA, I believe you are going to get two below league average months, the first one being way below league average.

 

Like I've said about 80 bagillion times, Theriot's peripherals don't show that hes gotten lucky, but his utter and complete lack of power (which I believe is purposeful as his FB rate has dropped significantly), leaves him as a player that is more dependent on luck than pretty much every other player in baseball. We've seen the regression happen within this season and last season. This isn't just a slump or him getting tired. This is to be expected when you don't put the ball into play with power. Hes making the most of his talents and I'm grateful to him to recognize and do that, lots of players don't, but hes no great shakes by any stretch of the imagination.

[USSoccer]

His peripherals make him David Eckstein.

[Guest]

His peripherals make him David Eckstein.

 

That's a pretty good comparison offensively and defensively. if he was just a little smarter, that would help.

[cl smooth]

i was at the game tonight (go cubs!) and, my god, a propped-up piece of plywood can play better defense than theriot. i love his OBP, but that glovework leaves something to be desired.

[BCVM22]

my god, a propped-up piece of plywood can play better defense than theriot.

 

And the plywood might actually be grittier than Theriot. Something to consider.

[Drew Doughty]

my god, a propped-up piece of plywood can play better defense than theriot.

 

And the plywood might actually be grittier than Theriot. Something to consider.

 

before each game the piece of plywood should be required to soak in mud. that way his jersey is dirty before the game even starts.

[third eye]

is it really possible to "suck" with a .384 or .407 OBP?

 

some have pretty high standards for offensive production from a league minimum SS

 

2 and 3

 

That is the amount of extra base hits Theriot had in those months respectively.

 

I'm all for OBP, but if you convert those months to wOBA, I believe you are going to get two below league average months, the first one being way below league average.

 

Like I've said about 80 bagillion times, Theriot's peripherals don't show that hes gotten lucky, but his utter and complete lack of power (which I believe is purposeful as his FB rate has dropped significantly), leaves him as a player that is more dependent on luck than pretty much every other player in baseball. We've seen the regression happen within this season and last season. This isn't just a slump or him getting tired. This is to be expected when you don't put the ball into play with power. Hes making the most of his talents and I'm grateful to him to recognize and do that, lots of players don't, but hes no great shakes by any stretch of the imagination.

 

Well, if we go by OPS, then, yes there were only 2 good months. Given that no one attributes any value to his power contributions, should we really throw out the .407 and .384 OBPs in his next 2 lowest OPS months, even given the lack of XBH? I understand the belief that Adam Dunn is the archetype of the modern hitter (correctly so, in many ways), but Theriot has had no lower than a .325 BABIP in any month before this one. Is there no accounting for the rare player who can get a hit without (much) speed and without power? Usually the high BABIP is reserved for the player with good power who has a high LD%. Doesn't seem to hold in this case. Maybe it is a statistical anomaly, but is it possible that this style of hitting doesn't fall into the accepted metrics in terms of predictive usefulness? I ask this as a point of curiosity to those closer to the more advanced metrics. I find the regression to the mean explanation a tired one, no pun intended.

[Guest]

is it really possible to "suck" with a .384 or .407 OBP?

 

some have pretty high standards for offensive production from a league minimum SS

 

2 and 3

 

That is the amount of extra base hits Theriot had in those months respectively.

 

I'm all for OBP, but if you convert those months to wOBA, I believe you are going to get two below league average months, the first one being way below league average.

 

Like I've said about 80 bagillion times, Theriot's peripherals don't show that hes gotten lucky, but his utter and complete lack of power (which I believe is purposeful as his FB rate has dropped significantly), leaves him as a player that is more dependent on luck than pretty much every other player in baseball. We've seen the regression happen within this season and last season. This isn't just a slump or him getting tired. This is to be expected when you don't put the ball into play with power. Hes making the most of his talents and I'm grateful to him to recognize and do that, lots of players don't, but hes no great shakes by any stretch of the imagination.

 

Well, if we go by OPS, then, yes there were only 2 good months. Given that no one attributes any value to his power contributions, should we really throw out the .407 and .384 OBPs in his next 2 lowest OPS months, even given the lack of XBH? I understand the belief that Adam Dunn is the archetype of the modern hitter (correctly so, in many ways), but Theriot has had no lower than a .325 BABIP in any month before this one. Is there no accounting for the rare player who can get a hit without (much) speed and without power? Usually the high BABIP is reserved for the player with good power who has a high LD%. Doesn't seem to hold in this case. Maybe it is a statistical anomaly, but is it possible that this style of hitting doesn't fall into the accepted metrics in terms of predictive usefulness? I ask this as a point of curiosity to those closer to the more advanced metrics. I find the regression to the mean explanation a tired one, no pun intended.

 

I have personally come to believe that the value of OBP is understated by most formulas - particularly in a team concept. Theriot's value is in his obp and there is definitely value in that so I agree that looking at his monthly ops is not particularly reflective. What is concerning about Theriot is that when his luck falls off, he is completely worthless. I don't think he can ever draw many walks simply because pitchers have no fear of his power (see Kosuke Fukodome who I suspect is falling the same problem as part of his overall decline). In short, Theriot has to maintain his LD% and have a corresponding BABIP to be useful. Given his suspect defense and baserunning, I am skeptical of his long-term value. That being said, he is the SS on the best defensive team in the NL so perhaps his defensive liabilities are overstated. The Cubs cannot afford plays like his boot of the third out before the Glaus homerun in the playoffs but I'm not sure its fair to cherrypick plays like that.

[sneakypower]

2 and 3

 

That is the amount of extra base hits Theriot had in those months respectively.

 

I'm all for OBP, but if you convert those months to wOBA, I believe you are going to get two below league average months, the first one being way below league average.

 

Like I've said about 80 bagillion times, Theriot's peripherals don't show that hes gotten lucky, but his utter and complete lack of power (which I believe is purposeful as his FB rate has dropped significantly), leaves him as a player that is more dependent on luck than pretty much every other player in baseball. We've seen the regression happen within this season and last season. This isn't just a slump or him getting tired. This is to be expected when you don't put the ball into play with power. Hes making the most of his talents and I'm grateful to him to recognize and do that, lots of players don't, but hes no great shakes by any stretch of the imagination.

i don't know what purpose is served by bringing up his peripherals when we're arguing over whether he was detrimental in the 2 months with the .384 & .407 OBPs.

 

i'm very well aware of his miserable ISO, but are you arguing that a slugging can be low enough where even getting a .380 OBP in the 2 spot from a min-salary SS is adversely affecting the offense?

[Tracer Bullet]

is it really possible to "suck" with a .384 or .407 OBP?

 

some have pretty high standards for offensive production from a league minimum SS

 

2 and 3

 

That is the amount of extra base hits Theriot had in those months respectively.

 

I'm all for OBP, but if you convert those months to wOBA, I believe you are going to get two below league average months, the first one being way below league average.

 

Like I've said about 80 bagillion times, Theriot's peripherals don't show that hes gotten lucky, but his utter and complete lack of power (which I believe is purposeful as his FB rate has dropped significantly), leaves him as a player that is more dependent on luck than pretty much every other player in baseball. We've seen the regression happen within this season and last season. This isn't just a slump or him getting tired. This is to be expected when you don't put the ball into play with power. Hes making the most of his talents and I'm grateful to him to recognize and do that, lots of players don't, but hes no great shakes by any stretch of the imagination.

 

If I were defending against Theriot, I'd put the 3b about even with the pitcher and put the rest of the team between second and first with no one more than 25' in the OF grass. But that's just me.

[Mizzou]

I'm glad that Lou didn't start giving him less playing time last night, considering that he got on base 5 times.