I know I shouldn't panic...

[Post Count Padder]

...but seriously, when are the Cobs going to actually win a game?

[Cubs08]

Friday

[anabiono]

your mom day

[UMFan83]

Opening Day 09

[imb]

prob 2009 if we're lucky

[sneakypower]

as much as i hate to dignify any of PCPs posts, what are pessimists trying to argue?

 

if you've got a ballclub who wins at a .600 clip, is that unsatisfactory without consistency? are we of the mindset that consistency is an achievable dream and the team can go 3-2 in every 5 game stretch? or are we considerably more talented than just a .600 team?

 

i really don't get any of this. nobody was complaining about inconsistency when we had long winning streaks.

 

wow i used that word pretty often in this post; now i feel like

http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:r76UuKpceq3q9M:http://i.a.cnn.net/si/2005/writers/richard_deitsch/10/20/morgan.website/tx_joemorgan_all.jpg

[imb]

i just dont think people understand that this losing patch doesn't make us any more or less likely to win or lose in the playoffs.

 

the stressing out is coming from people having their illusions of the cubs shattered.

[Gingerballs Lives]

I'm not worried.

 

Cubs should be heating up and primed for the playoffs when they roll around.

 

AC 000000

[Post Count Padder]

I'm more or less just frustrated. It'll be hard to miss the playoffs unless we do this the rest of the season. I'm not really worrying unless we get swept by the Brewers in both series.

[CubsBears29]

I'm more or less just frustrated. It'll be hard to miss the playoffs unless we do this the rest of the season. I'm not really worrying unless we get swept by the Brewers in both series.

 

The way both teams are playing, its a good thing BOTH teams can't get swept in those final 6 games.

[third eye]

The 1-8 streak has only knocked about 0.5% off of the playoff probability, so there hasn't been a real reason to panic. This stretch is nauseating, but it hasn't even begun to meaningfully alter postseason odds.

 

It is tempting, on one hand, to say that it is better to "get this out of our system now" rather than in October. I just don't buy that reasoning. Landing tails on a 60/40 weighted coin 8 out of 9 times in the final stretches of a 162 sample experiment doesnt really change the likelihood of winning 3/5 subsequent flips post-sample. This is a .600 team, and that is terrific. I just don't believe that the poor play is really getting flushed out of the system with this rough patch.

 

Edit: I should add that autocorrelation is stronger in time series for baseball than in a coin flip. So there should be more of a "momentum factor". Still, the variables that determine the swings in momentum are too volatile in a small sample size, like a playoff series, to dictate the relationship between late season wins and post season wins.

[Cynosure]

With Harden and Zambrano pitching this week, I'd say this week.

[Little Slide Rooter]

We dont have any more games vs. those teams that we can just trample, but theres no excuse not to go .500 the rest of the way.

 

Just win some damned baseball games, and if the Brewers and Phillies decide to lose a few more, more power to em.

[JeffH]

The 1-8 streak has only knocked about 0.5% off of the playoff probability, so there hasn't been a real reason to panic. This stretch is nauseating, but it hasn't even begun to meaningfully alter postseason odds.

 

I assume that these playoff odds only take into account the season statistics as a whole and not how the team has played lately. I further assume that they cannot and have not taken into account the human factors ("choking").

 

The actual likelihood of us missing the playoffs altogether has to be much higher than 1%.

[SouthSideRyan]

The 1-8 streak has only knocked about 0.5% off of the playoff probability, so there hasn't been a real reason to panic. This stretch is nauseating, but it hasn't even begun to meaningfully alter postseason odds.

 

I assume that these playoff odds only take into account the season statistics as a whole and not how the team has played lately. I further assume that they cannot and have not taken into account the human factors ("choking").

 

The actual likelihood of us missing the playoffs altogether has to be much higher than 1%.

 

Give me a # Jeff.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

A 1-8 stretch sheds new light on how good the team may or may not be, which still does have a small effect on postseason success.

 

It can't just be shrugged off.

[David]

A 1-8 stretch sheds new light on how good the team may or may not be, which still does have a small effect on postseason success.

 

It can't just be shrugged off.

 

Unless you weren't under the illusion that the team was somehow incapable of a bad 10 game stretch of baseball. I'm not sure that can be said about any baseball team, ever.

[C.C.]

A 1-8 stretch sheds new light on how good the team may or may not be, which still does have a small effect on postseason success.

 

It can't just be shrugged off.

 

Unless you weren't under the illusion that the team was somehow incapable of a bad 10 game stretch of baseball. I'm not sure that can be said about any baseball team, ever.

 

 

The 2001 Mariners. I don't think they knew what a slump felt like.

[David]

A 1-8 stretch sheds new light on how good the team may or may not be, which still does have a small effect on postseason success.

 

It can't just be shrugged off.

 

Unless you weren't under the illusion that the team was somehow incapable of a bad 10 game stretch of baseball. I'm not sure that can be said about any baseball team, ever.

 

 

The 2001 Mariners. I don't think they knew what a slump felt like.

 

That doesn't mean they weren't capable of it.

[XZero771679666304]

I'm not panicking. The reason has no basis other than that if this were any other year, the Brewers would be tearing it up right now. I find it kind of odd that the second place team in the division (and probably the second best team in the NL) happens to go straight in the crapper at the same time the Cubs do.

 

I haven't been a Cubs fan as long as some (though for my whole sports following life), but this sort of luck feels very much unlike anything I can remember.

 

 

As for a more tangible reason, the Cubs are in a position that would make it nearly impossible not to make the playoffs. I think Brewer fans who are freaking out would do well to realize the same applies for them. Prior to this horrid stretch, the Cubs had gone 26-5. You just don't play that well for long before the law of averages catches up with you. The Cubs have had just about everything that could go wrong go wrong lately, but being far and away the best team in the league for most of the season will help cushion the blow (and again, having the Crew tank at the same time helps).

 

The Cubs (and Brewers) are simply too good for this to continue for long.

[SouthSideRyan]

A 1-8 stretch sheds new light on how good the team may or may not be, which still does have a small effect on postseason success.

 

It can't just be shrugged off.

 

Unless you weren't under the illusion that the team was somehow incapable of a bad 10 game stretch of baseball. I'm not sure that can be said about any baseball team, ever.

 

 

The 2001 Mariners. I don't think they knew what a slump felt like.

 

They did have a 2-5(4-7) slump in them.

[C.C.]

A 1-8 stretch sheds new light on how good the team may or may not be, which still does have a small effect on postseason success.

 

It can't just be shrugged off.

 

Unless you weren't under the illusion that the team was somehow incapable of a bad 10 game stretch of baseball. I'm not sure that can be said about any baseball team, ever.

 

 

The 2001 Mariners. I don't think they knew what a slump felt like.

 

That doesn't mean they weren't capable of it.

 

Capable or not they proved incapable of a bad 10 game stretch for that year. Unless you consider 4-6 a bad stretch of baseball.

[C.C.]

I'm not panicking. The reason has no basis other than that if this were any other year, the Brewers would be tearing it up right now. I find it kind of odd that the second place team in the division (and probably the second best team in the NL) happens to go straight in the crapper at the same time the Cubs do.

 

I haven't been a Cubs fan as long as some (though for my whole sports following life), but this sort of luck feels very much unlike anything I can remember.

 

 

As for a more tangible reason, the Cubs are in a position that would make it nearly impossible not to make the playoffs. I think Brewer fans who are freaking out would do well to realize the same applies for them. Prior to this horrid stretch, the Cubs had gone 26-5. You just don't play that well for long before the law of averages catches up with you. The Cubs have had just about everything that could go wrong go wrong lately, but being far and away the best team in the league for most of the season will help cushion the blow (and again, having the Crew tank at the same time helps).

 

The Cubs (and Brewers) are simply too good for this to continue for long.

 

Agreed. Both teams have another run in them.

[SouthSideRyan]

A 1-8 stretch sheds new light on how good the team may or may not be, which still does have a small effect on postseason success.

 

It can't just be shrugged off.

 

Unless you weren't under the illusion that the team was somehow incapable of a bad 10 game stretch of baseball. I'm not sure that can be said about any baseball team, ever.

 

 

The 2001 Mariners. I don't think they knew what a slump felt like.

 

That doesn't mean they weren't capable of it.

 

Capable or not they proved incapable of a bad 10 game stretch for that year. Unless you consider 4-6 a bad stretch of baseball.

 

Isn't a 2-5 stretch a bad stretch of baseball? Why's it have to be 10? And I understand you're refuting about no team being capable of going without a bad stretch, but what's the point of this? That we're not a 116 win talent team? Nobody's ever suggested this. It's pretty much simple math that a 116 win team isn't going to have bad stretches, otherwise they'd be too incredible for words the rest of the year.

Edited September 10, 2008 by SouthSideRyan

[David]

I'm saying that just because they didn't do it doesn't mean it wasn't possible.

 

The fact that the Cubs managed to put together a bad 10 game stretch of baseball when they also happened to have problems with their rotation and some horrendous managerial moves doesn't tell me anything I didn't already know.

 

Now give me a terrible month or something and we'll have a little more to talk about.