The Tyler Colvin Reassurance Thread.

[Mephistopheles]

You may, or may not know that I am a closet Tyler Colvin apologist. Sure this season has been a relative disaster for him. He came on strong late, but the overall line is something like .250/./310/.420 after hitting consistently terrible for the first third of the season.

 

Some things of note. Happy Birthday Tyler. Today is his 23rd birthday. It seems like he's been around our system for a few years and should be a year or two older, but he was extremely young when he was drafted for a college product. So in retrospect he's spent the entire season in Double A as a 22 year old, which prospect wise is about a year below the standard age. In other words, he's got the age thing still working for him.

 

He's also worked on his plate discipline, moving it from crap to not so bad crap. Despite the lower hitting production the increase in patience is probably more important at this point for his future development and future prospects. Now, I am not one to love over the peak translation statistics. I prefer my own method of comparing players, which I haven't gone over here, but for the sake of discussion, let's take a quick look at what BP translates his 2008 AA performance to (peak translation btw).

 

BP comes up with 27 homers and a line of .268/.321/.508 based on his 2008 performance alone. Once you throw in the fact his production this year was probably lower than his anticipated production, you can arrive at a conclusion that this peak performance is more likely than most peak performance projections.

 

There are a couple things to note. First off: The power. 240 IsoP? The power potential that was highly debated when he was drafted is developing nicely. Kudos to Tim Wilken on that part. He's also got a decent IsoD, but the strike outs seem to be holding his BA down. Honestly, looking at that line with his speed, athleticism and defense one comparison I can't seem to get away from: Alfonso Soriano. He doesn't have quite the same amount of speed or quite the same amount of power, but he's a lot like a Soriano lite and seems to be developing into that just fine.

 

So while it may seem like a lost season for Colvin, his prospect status hasn't dimmed at all, but his power and patience may have even improved this season which in a weird way may cancel out all of the suck - and some.

[Rob]

I've been a staunch Colvin supporter all season. The low BA and SLG didn't scare me when he started off terrible, and I was quite excited by the large boost in his discipline. But his splits are kinda scary. I am a bit wary of the fact that he only started having success again this season when he stopped walking, which reinforces all the wrong things.

 

Next year is a very important year in his development... I'll be very interested to see just how patient he is next year.

[badnews]

He sucks.

 

The light from Travis Snider will not reach Tyler Colvin until another thousand years.

 

The End.

[rawaction]

What about a Rocco Baldelli comparison, Meph? Seems like the most similar player to me. Similar build (6'4", 200 lbs vs. 6'3", 190 lbs). Similar skills defensively. Similar approaches at the plate. Neither has the power or speed of Soriano. Neither walks much and both strike out a little too much.

 

In fact, look at their career minor league numbers:

 

Baldelli: .279 /.330 /.437 /.767 OPS

Colvin: .274 /.316 /.460 / .776 OPS

 

Baldelli in 1340 PA, 71 BBs, 271 Ks

Colvin in 1373 PA, 76 BBs, 214 Ks

[bannor10]

This is a good topic to bring up..Can plate discipline be taught.. Maybe if walks and a high obp is valued maybe we should have drafted that to begin with....

 

BTW, how does TC's stats compare with Luis Montinez career in the minors...

[jersey cubs fan]

Soriano seems like a big stretch, but he's nearly impossible to compare to guys based on his numbers at a young age.

 

Colvin did enough this year to make me think he's still got a chance to contribute in the majors in a positive way, but I don't see him being an impact player (other than providing above average numbers in CF for way below average salary).

[rawaction]

Soriano seems like a big stretch, but he's nearly impossible to compare to guys based on his numbers at a young age.

 

Colvin did enough this year to make me think he's still got a chance to contribute in the majors in a positive way, but I don't see him being an impact player (other than providing above average numbers in CF for way below average salary).

 

Agreed. If I had to guess, I'd say the Cubs trade Pie this offseason and bring in an experience CF who can take Edmonds role in the platoon (I'm thinking David DeJesus or the like). Colvin will likely start in Iowa and be placed on the 40-man this offseason, making him 1 callup away.

[Outshined_One]

I'm still sticking with the Jacque Jones comparison in terms of plate production. If Colvin can stick in CF, his numbers will be fine. If he's at a corner, I wouldn't be too thrilled with having him out there.

[Mephistopheles]

What about a Rocco Baldelli comparison, Meph? Seems like the most similar player to me. Similar build (6'4", 200 lbs vs. 6'3", 190 lbs). Similar skills defensively. Similar approaches at the plate. Neither has the power or speed of Soriano. Neither walks much and both strike out a little too much.

 

In fact, look at their career minor league numbers:

 

Baldelli: .279 /.330 /.437 /.767 OPS

Colvin: .274 /.316 /.460 / .776 OPS

 

Baldelli in 1340 PA, 71 BBs, 271 Ks

Colvin in 1373 PA, 76 BBs, 214 Ks

 

Badelli's tools and Colvin's tools aren't that comparable. Colvin's not nearly the toolsy monster Rocco was. Rocco has more hitting aptitude for high batting averages. He has more raw power, although it doesn't materialize due to his line drive batting average first approach - though he's shown it more recently (well last few years when he's been active). Rocco is a plus defensive centerfielder and has plus-plus speed. The only things that mirror each other are the power and discipline. Nothing else mathces up.

[rawaction]

What about a Rocco Baldelli comparison, Meph? Seems like the most similar player to me. Similar build (6'4", 200 lbs vs. 6'3", 190 lbs). Similar skills defensively. Similar approaches at the plate. Neither has the power or speed of Soriano. Neither walks much and both strike out a little too much.

 

In fact, look at their career minor league numbers:

 

Baldelli: .279 /.330 /.437 /.767 OPS

Colvin: .274 /.316 /.460 / .776 OPS

 

Baldelli in 1340 PA, 71 BBs, 271 Ks

Colvin in 1373 PA, 76 BBs, 214 Ks

 

Badelli's tools and Colvin's tools aren't that comparable. Colvin's not nearly the toolsy monster Rocco was. Rocco has more hitting aptitude for high batting averages. He has more raw power, although it doesn't materialize due to his line drive batting average first approach - though he's shown it more recently (well last few years when he's been active). Rocco is a plus defensive centerfielder and has plus-plus speed. The only things that mirror each other are the power and discipline. Nothing else mathces up.

 

So, if Colvin doesn't have the tools that Baldelli does/did, then by default Soriano (the player you compared Colvin too) doesn't have the tools Baldelli does/did? Yet, you say Colvin's not as fast or have the power of Soriano (both tools). From what I know about Colvin, his arm isn't as good as Soriano's (I honestly can't remember how good Baldelli's arm is). Soriano was as toolsy as they came back in the 90s.

[TruffleShuffle]

i have trouble seeing anything more than a 4th outfielder.

[badnews]

It seems like a lot of dubious minor leaguers, in the process of grasping for straws, get compared to guys like Torii Hunter, Rocco Baldelli, and Carl Crawford.

[sneakypower]

It seems like a lot of dubious minor leaguers, in the process of grasping for straws, get compared to guys like Torii Hunter, Rocco Baldelli, and Carl Crawford.

I don't see those 3 comparisons as much because all have considerable value in their superb defense, but what's made sense to me is Garret Anderson with a slightly lesser level of peak production

 

of course that would be assuming all goes fairly well; still, Anderson's milb stats were pretty crummy pre-AAA

[SweetZombieJesus]

i have trouble seeing anything more than a 4th outfielder.

 

For a Japanese League Team

[craig]

Colvin did a nice job reviving his season down the stretch. With only 2+ pro years, and having played the year at 22, it's still way too soon for me to think I know what he'll end up being. The optimist in me notes progress in crucial areas:

1) plate discpline/walks improved a lot during the season

2) power continued to progress

3) his K-rate improved down the stretch

4) according to Fleita he adjusted his stance and did much better after that. His hitting was very good over the last month or so.

 

So the optimist sees the chance of continued progress in key areas. Were he able to put those things together, if he walked like he did when he was walking best, while at the same time K'd as little as he did post-break, while hit with the authority he did down the stretch, while continues to show the developing power he was showing, he could be a pretty total package. If you have a good stroke for extra bases, if you hit a healthy dose of HR's, and if you walk some without K'ing a ton, you're going to be a good hitter. It's entirely possible that he'll emerge as a solid-hitting outfielder.

 

The pessimist notes that he's never really put it all together. That he has yet to both hit and walk at the same time, and that his hitting seemed to come when he abandoned the walking routine. So there's a good chance that he'll never be able to be even a passable walker. And the pessimist notes that he's not a big guy, and has never been scouted for major HR-power.

 

Good vs bad:

*25HR/12HR per year

*16% K-rate vs 20% K-rate

*9% walk-rate vs 4% walk-rate

 

If he were to come in toward the good end in each of those three areas, he's likely to be an asset player. If he comes in at the bottom end, not. Time will tell, as usual. That said, I'm tons more open to the notion that he might work out then I was back in mid-July.

[biittner77]

Is there any concern about moving him to the corners when Fuld got demoted? Was that making room for Fuld or can't he handle CF? If the Cubs moved him out of CF to make room for Fuld that is really dumb- unless they already believe he can stick in CF.

[CubinNY]

From what I saw of Colvin (@ 4.5 games) He's got the arm to play RF or CF. If I'm remembering correctly he threw a guy out going from 1 to 3rd in one game we saw, and another at home (from RF).

 

I think Vaughn Joshua needs to get a hold of him. I'm no expert on this (or even much of an ammeter), but to me his swing is long and loopy and I'm not so sure about his bat speed.

 

I don't have much hope that he will be anything more than fringe player/defensive replacement in the unlikely event he spends significant time in the majors.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I'm no expert on this (or even much of an ammeter)

you really aren't much of a tool that measures electric current in circuits ;)

[RedFlash]

i have trouble seeing anything more than a 4th outfielder.

 

And I see him as a Mark Kotsay type player in his major league career. Maybe not with the Cubs, but somewhere.

[badnews]

I think about the best you can hope for is Juan Encarnacion, which isn't too different from Kotsay or Jacque, in the end we're talking about .750ish OPS guys with middling base stealing results.

[RedFlash]

I think about the best you can hope for is Juan Encarnacion, which isn't too different from Kotsay or Jacque, in the end we're talking about .750ish OPS guys with middling base stealing results.

 

That's not bad comp, but I hoping he can reach beyond that, tho...

[craig]

I think about the best you can hope for is Juan Encarnacion, which isn't too different from Kotsay or Jacque, in the end we're talking about .750ish OPS guys with middling base stealing results.

 

I can hope for more than a .750-ish OPS guy (and in Jacque's case, with a brutal arm and lousy baserunning besides).

 

I can hope for a guy who hits 25 HR a year. It's not that rare for a guy who's hitting 14 HR's in AA at 22 to end up hitting 20+ once established in the majors. Certain, not, but it's certainly plausible and hope-able.

 

I can hope for a guy who K's at around 16% rate, perhaps better. Certain, not. But it's not implausible that a guy who K'd at 14% post-break in AA at 22 to play as a guy who doesn't K a lot.

 

I can hope for an 8% BB rate. Certain, anything but. But it's not rare for a guy who is a pretty good contact hitter and hits 20+ HR's to get some walks, and to evolve into a walk-rate in the majors that is comparable to the walk-rate he had as a 22-year-old in AA.

 

Given that Colvin has always hit a good share of doubles and triples, I think it's also reasonable to hope that a fair share of his non-HR hits will go for extras.

 

Here are a set of numbers I could hope for: 600 AB, 25HR, 16% K-rate, 8% walk-rate, 30 doubles, 4 triples, .315 BABIP. Without including any HBP, that would produce a .347 BABIP .483 slugging, .830 OPS. That's more the range I'd hope for: somebody who could be an .800+ OPS guy, while playing a plus RF. None of those numbers are individually unreasonable, and some are a bit conservative relative to what I "hope". (he got 38 doubles/triples this year, in a minor-league season. In the majors, when you give an additional month of August in which to accumulate numbers, my 34 doubles/triples "hope" may be a bit conservative...)

 

There is a big difference between a .750-type guy and an .830-type guy. .800+ guys who play good defense, they are valuable players, even in corner outfield spots.

 

Again, I'm not saying I **expect** him to be an .830-type guy. He could fall well shy of being a 25-HR guy. he could K way more than 16% in the majors. And he could walk well below 8%. But I've got to think that when a good-fielding good-throwing 22-year-old in the Southern League posts a .975 OPS over 116-AB August (not that small a sample), it's not being realistic to say he's got no chance to be more than a .750-ish major leaguer. He's definitely got a chance to be an .800+ major leaguer, even if it's safer to predict he won't.

[jersey cubs fan]

He's definitely got a chance to be an .800+ major leaguer, even if it's safer to predict he won't.

 

I would agree he's got a chance, at least for his prime years, to produce at, or just above, the 800 OPS level.

[Mephistopheles]

Well in general, it's always safe to predict they won't be that good: See Alex Gordon. It's like a continuous probability function. At every point the probability is zero, but some how they all add up to something.

[SouthSideRyan]

This is a good topic to bring up..Can plate discipline be taught.. Maybe if walks and a high obp is valued maybe we should have drafted that to begin with....

 

BTW, how does TC's stats compare with Luis Montinez career in the minors...

 

I feel bad this was glossed over.

 

Discipline can be taught, but it's my opinion that it needs to be stressed early on in their minor league career. Granted, I think Von Joshua could get me to OBP 350 in Iowa, but that's the exception not the rule.

 

When you have a guy whose able to get by on his raw ability through the lower levels, it's that much harder when he has to adjust to better pitching at the higher levels and come up with a completely new approach than the one that's worked his whole life. Partially pride, but you've also got the difficulty of trying to learn something new after being so familiar with an approach your entire athletic life. It's similar to why I don't like pitching mechanics being tinkered with at the big league level until forced to by injury/upcoming injury. Baseball is a game of repetition, and going ahead and changing things after you've been successful with another way is going to be difficult for anyone, let alone somebody who's been told their whole life how good they are at something. By all means, tinker with the guy when he's drafted, set him on the right path and re-teach him the game if you really need to. But yeah, this was a bit of a tangent wasn't it.

 

As for Montanez/Colvin it's a tough comparison. Montanez struggled his first few years in the minors offensively and defensively. It wasn't really til he shifted to the OF that he started hitting. Because of this(despite coming out from high school) Montanez was ~2 years older than Colvin at the same level. The problem with Montanez was because he was so late to develop in the minors, he was pretty much sink or swim at Iowa in his 6th(and final before free agency) year in the Cubs system. After tearing up AA for 160 PAs, he was sent to Iowa and failed miserably. Totally defensible for the Cubs to let him go, as he still wasn't very projectable at that point. Even last year with Baltimore's AAA squad he didn't do much of anything. It was Montanez's 8th minor league season before he hit AAA pitching with any authority. Next year will be Colvin's 4th minor league season and hopefully he'll be up in AAA taking his hacks. I don't expect much better than Montanez's 2007 (~750 OPS), but doing that at 23 in AAA isn't awful. I think Colvin's definitely a 2 year AAAer, and hopefully that time spent with St. Von will turn him into a big league starter.