Reassurance Thread

[JeffH]

So we can play several games under .500 the rest of the way, and still pretty much coast in.

 

We're going to have to play much better to even come in with a 7-12 finish.

[abuck1220]

So we can play several games under .500 the rest of the way, and still pretty much coast in.

 

We're going to have to play much better to even come in with a 7-12 finish.

 

and they probably won't even need a 7-12 finish.

[SouthSideRyan]

So we can play several games under .500 the rest of the way, and still pretty much coast in.

 

We're going to have to play much better to even come in with a 7-12 finish.

 

I know you're positively giddy right now, but why are our last 19 games going to be played at the level of our last 8? If that's the way things worked, wouldn't we have dominated these last 8 games considering we were hot heading into those? We're 8-8 our last 16, why aren't we going to keep up that pace? Better yet, we're 86-57 over our last 143 games, why not play at that pace?

[Keener98]

So we can play several games under .500 the rest of the way, and still pretty much coast in.

 

We're going to have to play much better to even come in with a 7-12 finish.

 

I know you're positively giddy right now, but why are our last 19 games going to be played at the level of our last 8? If that's the way things worked, wouldn't we have dominated these last 8 games considering we were hot heading into those? We're 8-8 our last 16, why aren't we going to keep up that pace? Better yet, we're 86-57 over our last 143 games, why not play at that pace?

 

Dont you love how certain Cub "fans" only show up when things are going badly. JeffH was nowhere around this board, posting all his nonsense for the past 3 months, but let the Cubs lose 6 games in a row.....Hes right back here firing away...

[C.C.]

Very conservative approach and we still win 9 games.

 

Vs. Cards - 1/3

Vs. Astros - 1/3

Vs. Brewers - 2/3

Vs. Cards - 2/3

Vs. Mets - 2/4

Vs. Brewers - 1/3

[JeffH]

So we can play several games under .500 the rest of the way, and still pretty much coast in.

 

We're going to have to play much better to even come in with a 7-12 finish.

 

I know you're positively giddy right now, but why are our last 19 games going to be played at the level of our last 8? If that's the way things worked, wouldn't we have dominated these last 8 games considering we were hot heading into those? We're 8-8 our last 16, why aren't we going to keep up that pace? Better yet, we're 86-57 over our last 143 games, why not play at that pace?

 

Dont you love how certain Cub "fans" only show up when things are going badly. JeffH was nowhere around this board, posting all his nonsense for the past 3 months, but let the Cubs lose 6 games in a row.....Hes right back here firing away...

 

What is there to say when they play well? Just enjoy it.

 

I only get angry and complain when they play poorly.

[swordsman]

On any given day when both the Cubs and Brewers play there are four possible outcomes.

 

Cubs win Brewers lose - Good for the Cubs

Cubs Win Brewers Win - not bad for the cubs because it ticks off one more game the Brewers can't use to catch up

Cubs lose Brewers lose - also not bad for the cubs because it ticks off one more game the Brewers can't use to catch up

Cubs lose Brewers win - Bad for the cubs

 

So out of 4 possible outcomes on any given day, three of the four possible outcomes are good for the cubs.

 

:good:

[Cubs 32]

Here's how the schedule (and head-to-head season records) looks for the next two weeks (with the Cubs two closest competiters at the moment).

 

Cubs (51-24 at home/35-33 away)

9/9-9/11: @ STL (Cubs 5-4 vs. STL...3-3 at STL)

9/12-9/14: @ HOU (Cubs 6-9 vs. HOU...2-4 at HOU)

9/16-9/18: vs. MIL (Cubs 6-4 vs. MIL...2-4 at Wrigley)

9/19-9/21: vs. STL (Cubs 5-4 vs. STL...2-1 at Wrigley)

 

Brewers (43-29 home/39-32 away)

9/8-9/10: vs. CIN (MIL 6-6 vs. CIN...2-4 at MIL)

9/11-9/14: @ PHI (MIL 1-1 vs. PHI)

9/16-9/18: @ CHC (MIL 6-4 vs. CHC...4-2 at CHC)

9/19-9/21: @ CIN (MIL 6-6 vs. CIN...4-2)

 

Phillies (39-29 home/39-36 away) 4 GB in the Wild Card...2 GB in the NL East

9/8-9/10: vs. FLA (PHI 5-7 vs. FLA...3-3 at PHI)

9/11-9/14: vs. MIL (PHI 1-1 vs. MIL)

9/16-9/18: @ ATL (PHI 10-2 vs. ATL...6-0 at ATL)

9/19-9/21: @ FLA (PHI 5-7 vs. FLA...2-4 at FLA)

[Cubs 32]

And more statistical proof, that despite the current state of suck, the Cubs are still very good and are going to the playoffs.

 

Run Differential (NL)

1. Cubs: +176

2. Phillies: +95

3. Mets: +83

4. Brewers: +69

5. Cardinals: +52

 

Cubs actual record vs. pythag record: 86-57 (89-54/-3 "luck")

Brewers actual vs. pythag: 82-61 (79-64/+2)

Phillies actual vs. pythag: 78-65 (82-61/-4)

Cardinals actual vs. pythag: 77-66 (77-66/0)

 

Cubs team batting stats/NL ranks

Runs scored: 769 (1st)

BA: .280 (1st)

OBP: .358 (1st)

SLG: .448 (1st)

OPS: .806 (1st)

OPS+: 112 (1st)

XBH: 478 (2nd)

BB: 574 (1st)

 

Cubs team pitching stats/NL ranks

Runs allowed: 593 (tied for 2nd)

ERA: 3.86 (4th)

ERA+: 117 (2nd)

WHIP: 1.29 (tied for 1st)

SO: 1119 (1st)

K/BB: 2.35 (3rd)

BAA: .242 (1st)

OBP: .315 (1st)

SLG: .400 (3rd)

OPS: .715 (2nd)

[wvcbxl]

On any given day when both the Cubs and Brewers play there are four possible outcomes.

 

Cubs win Brewers lose - Good for the Cubs

Cubs Win Brewers Win - not bad for the cubs because it ticks off one more game the Brewers can't use to catch up

Cubs lose Brewers lose - also not bad for the cubs because it ticks off one more game the Brewers can't use to catch up

Cubs lose Brewers win - Bad for the cubs

 

So out of 4 possible outcomes on any given day, three of the four possible outcomes are good for the cubs.

 

:good:

 

On the days the Cubs play against the Brewers, only two of those outcomes are possible. :wink:

[bcl412]

If we split the Brewers we knock off 6 games of the magic number

[swordsman]

On any given day when both the Cubs and Brewers play there are four possible outcomes.

 

Cubs win Brewers lose - Good for the Cubs

Cubs Win Brewers Win - not bad for the cubs because it ticks off one more game the Brewers can't use to catch up

Cubs lose Brewers lose - also not bad for the cubs because it ticks off one more game the Brewers can't use to catch up

Cubs lose Brewers win - Bad for the cubs

 

So out of 4 possible outcomes on any given day, three of the four possible outcomes are good for the cubs.

 

:good:

 

On the days the Cubs play against the Brewers, only two of those outcomes are possible. :wink:

 

No doubt those days are more important.

[Cubs 32]

Updated after tonight's games.

 

NL Central (Cubs magic number: 15)

Cubs 4-15...MIL 8-10 to tie (9-9 to win)

Cubs 5-14...MIL 9-9 (10-8)

Cubs 6-13...MIL 10-8 (11-7)

Cubs 7-12...MIL 11-7 (12-6)

Cubs 8-11...MIL 12-6 (13-5)

Cubs 9-10...MIL 13-5 (14-4)

Cubs 10-9...MIL 14-4 (15-3)

Cubs 11-8...MIL 15-3 (16-2)

Cubs 12-7...MIL 16-2 (17-1)

Cubs 13-6...MIL 17-1 (18-0)

Cubs 14-5...MIL 18-0

 

 

To make playoffs: Cubs "head-to head" w/ PHI, STL, HOU (Cubs magic number: 12)

Cubs 4-15...PHI 11-7 to tie (12-6 to win)...STL 15-4 (16-3)...HOU 13-5 (14-4)

Cubs 5-14...PHI 12-6 (13-5)...STL 14-5 (15-4)...HOU 14-4 (15-3)

Cubs 6-13...PHI 13-5 (14-4)...STL 15-4 (16-3)...HOU 15-3 (16-2)

Cubs 7-12...PHI 14-4 (15-3)...STL 16-3 (17-2)...HOU 16-2 (17-1)

Cubs 8-11...PHI 15-3 (16-2)...STL 17-2 (18-1)...HOU 17-1 (18-0)

Cubs 9-10...PHI 16-2 (17-1)...STL 18-1 (19-0)...HOU 18-0

Cubs 10-9...PHI 17-1 (18-0)...STL 19-0...HOU (E)

Cubs 11-8...PHI 18-0...STL (E)

[Roast]

 

I remember in the 2003 ALCS where Soriano struck out 11 times in 30 ABs, most of them on some garbage looking breaking pitch low and away. Fast forward 5 years it's still a near-daily occurence with him. Go look at Sunday's game, 8th inning, vs. the Phillies, Madson struck him out on a pitch that was crap low and outside.

 

Yeah, because something that happened five years ago and a single at bat from this season totally prove...well...anything.

[Cubs 32]

Partial update with tonight's results (Cubs/Phils losses and Cards/Astros wins).

 

To make playoffs: Cubs "head-to head" w/ PHI, STL, HOU (Cubs magic number: 11)

Cubs 4-14...PHI 11-6 to tie (12-5 to win)...STL 12-6 (13-5)...HOU 12-5 (13-4)

Cubs 5-13...PHI 12-5 (13-4)...STL 13-5 (14-4)...HOU 13-4 (14-3)

Cubs 6-12...PHI 13-4 (14-3)...STL 14-4 (15-3)...HOU 14-3 (15-2)

Cubs 7-11...PHI 14-3 (15-2)...STL 15-3 (16-2)...HOU 15-2 (16-1)

Cubs 8-10...PHI 15-2 (16-1)...STL 16-2 (17-1)...HOU 16-1 (17-0)

Cubs 9-9...PHI 16-1 (17-0)...STL 17-1 (18-0)...HOU 17-0

Cubs 10-8...PHI 17-0...STL 18-0...HOU (E)

Cubs 11-7...PHI (E)...STL (E)

[Cubs 32]

Updated...and the Brewers lose again. Thanks goes out to DBR's.

 

NL Central (Cubs magic number: 14)

Cubs 4-14...MIL 8-9 to tie (9-8 to win)

Cubs 5-13...MIL 9-8 (10-7)

Cubs 6-12...MIL 10-7 (11-6)

Cubs 7-11...MIL 11-6 (12-5)

Cubs 8-10...MIL 12-7 (13-4)

Cubs 9-9...MIL 13-4 (14-3)

Cubs 10-8...MIL 14-3 (15-2)

Cubs 11-7...MIL 15-2 (16-1)

Cubs 12-6...MIL 16-1 (17-0)

Cubs 13-5...MIL 17-0

[SouthSideRyan]

The Cubs have gone 1-6 in September and lost 0 games in the standings.

[17 Seconds]

I still think we win the division (because of the sucktitude of the Brewers) but it would suck to go into the playoffs like this for the second year in a row. Plus, if we hadn't sucked so bad the last 9 games, we'd have a great shot at clinching the division at Wrigley, which would be awesome.

[CubInOK]

I still think we win the division (because of the sucktitude of the Brewers) but it would suck to go into the playoffs like this for the second year in a row. Plus, if we hadn't sucked so bad the last 9 games, we'd have a great shot at clinching the division at Wrigley, which would be awesome.

We can still do it if we decied to rattle of an 11-game win streak.

[samhainn77]

Updated...and the Brewers lose again. Thanks goes out to DBR's.

 

NL Central (Cubs magic number: 14)

Cubs 4-14...MIL 8-9 to tie (9-8 to win)

Cubs 5-13...MIL 9-8 (10-7)

Cubs 6-12...MIL 10-7 (11-6)

Cubs 7-11...MIL 11-6 (12-5)

Cubs 8-10...MIL 12-7 (13-4)

Cubs 9-9...MIL 13-4 (14-3)

Cubs 10-8...MIL 14-3 (15-2)

Cubs 11-7...MIL 15-2 (16-1)

Cubs 12-6...MIL 16-1 (17-0)

Cubs 13-5...MIL 17-0

 

Come on Cubbies, snap out of it. It would be so easy to put this away.

[abuck1220]

I still think we win the division (because of the sucktitude of the Brewers) but it would suck to go into the playoffs like this for the second year in a row.

 

the playoffs don't start tomorrow. if they play this bad over the last 18 games, then i'll be concerned.

[C.C.]

Yea, I'm sensing a hot streak coming up. Having Z and Harden (healthy?) back for the stretch is huge!

[JGalt73]

For those who believe in the value of these sorts of things-

 

While both the Cubs and Brewers have been brutal the last 7 days, the Cubs have hurt their playoff hopes by <1%, while the Brewers have hurt theirs by nearly 20%.

 

From BP's postseason odds on 9/10:

 

Current chance of postseason play:

 

Cubs 98.8% (89.8% NLC winners)

Brewers 73.2% (9.6% NLC winners)

[SouthSideRyan]

Bad stretches from previous WS winners.

 

2007 BoSox: 3-8

2006 Cards: 0-8(1-10), 0-8, 0-7

2005 White Sox: 0-7, 1-6(4-11)

2004 BoSox: 3-9

2003 Marlins: 4-15, 1-8

2002 Angels: 3-12

2001 D-Backs: 2-8

 

(Done via baseballreference.com without the luxury of P-I, so if I screwed anything up bite me)

[CubsBears29]

Magic number for Central Division Crown : 13

 

Magic number for Postseason birth : 9

 

(Cubs have 17 games remaining, everyone still in contention for a playoff spot has 16 left [after tonight]; save for NYM & ARI, who also have 17 left)