Reassurance Thread

[splintersag]

You mean there's a chance we won't make the playoffs! :shock:

[Cubs 32]

Updated with last night's results.

 

NL Central (Cubs magic number: 13)

Cubs 4-13...MIL 8-8 to tie (9-7 to win)

Cubs 5-12...MIL 9-7 (10-6)

Cubs 6-11...MIL 10-6 (11-5)

Cubs 7-10...MIL 11-5 (12-4)

Cubs 8-9...MIL 12-4 (13-3)

Cubs 9-8...MIL 13-3 (14-2)

Cubs 10-7...MIL 14-2 (15-1)

Cubs 11-6...MIL 15-1 (16-0)

Cubs 12-5...MIL 16-0

 

To make playoffs: Cubs "head-to head" w/ PHI, STL, HOU (Cubs magic number: 9)

Cubs 4-13...PHI 12-4 to tie (13-3 to win)...STL 13-4 (14-3)...HOU 12-4 (13-3)

Cubs 5-12...PHI 13-3 (14-2)...STL 14-3 (15-2)...HOU 13-3 (14-2)

Cubs 6-11...PHI 14-2 (15-1)...STL 15-2 (16-1)...HOU 14-2 (15-1)

Cubs 7-10...PHI 15-1 (16-0)...STL 16-1 (17-0)...HOU 15-1 (16-0)

Cubs 8-9...PHI 16-0...STL 17-0...HOU 16-0

Cubs 9-8...PHI (E)...STL (E)...HOU (E)

[Ski]

Just go at least 7-10, Cubs.

[bukie]

Updated with last night's results.

 

NL Central (Cubs magic number: 13)

Cubs 4-13...MIL 8-8 to tie (9-7 to win)

Cubs 5-12...MIL 9-7 (10-6)

Cubs 6-11...MIL 10-6 (11-5)

Cubs 7-10...MIL 11-5 (12-4)

Cubs 8-9...MIL 12-4 (13-3)

Cubs 9-8...MIL 13-3 (14-2)

Cubs 10-7...MIL 14-2 (15-1)

Cubs 11-6...MIL 15-1 (16-0)

Cubs 12-5...MIL 16-0

 

To make playoffs: Cubs "head-to head" w/ PHI, STL, HOU (Cubs magic number: 9)

Cubs 4-13...PHI 12-4 to tie (13-3 to win)...STL 13-4 (14-3)...HOU 12-4 (13-3)

Cubs 5-12...PHI 13-3 (14-2)...STL 14-3 (15-2)...HOU 13-3 (14-2)

Cubs 6-11...PHI 14-2 (15-1)...STL 15-2 (16-1)...HOU 14-2 (15-1)

Cubs 7-10...PHI 15-1 (16-0)...STL 16-1 (17-0)...HOU 15-1 (16-0)

Cubs 8-9...PHI 16-0...STL 17-0...HOU 16-0

Cubs 9-8...PHI (E)...STL (E)...HOU (E)

 

You neglect to mention that even if the Phillies went and played out of their minds over the last 3 weeks and caught the Cubs, the Cubs still make the playoffs unless the Mets pass them too.

[Cubs 32]

You neglect to mention that even if the Phillies went and played out of their minds over the last 3 weeks and caught the Cubs, the Cubs still make the playoffs unless the Mets pass them too.

 

That is true. I just went strictly off the Wild Card standings, and assuming the Mets win the NL East. I guess in my scenario above, the Mets went crazy too and matched the Phillies run...haha. I'll certainly adjust the "real" scenarios if needed.

[cubweiser03]

With 17 games to go the Cubs are now 1.5 games ahead of where the Mets were last year before their monumental collapse.

[El Ridda]

With 17 games to go the Cubs are now 1.5 games ahead of where the Mets were last year before their monumental collapse.

 

 

Ok, but they only lost the division by one game, so that 1.5 would have been huge.

[champaignchris]

With 17 games to go the Cubs are now 1.5 games ahead of where the Mets were last year before their monumental collapse.

 

 

Ok, but they only lost the division by one game, so that 1.5 would have been huge.

 

There's also the added factor of there needing to be at least two teams to pass the Cubs, rather than just one.

 

There are only two ways for the Cubs to miss the playoffs:

a. The Brewers and either the Cardinals or Astros pass the Cubs.

b. The Brewers and both the Phillies and the Mets pass the Cubs.

 

So, if the Cubs go 7-10 the rest of the way, the Brewers have to go at least 11-5 for any of the other scenarios to matter. Even then, one of the Cards or Astros would have to go 15-1 or 16-1, or both the Phillies and Mets would have to go 15-1 and 12-5. Even then, the Cubs would have the chance to make the playoffs with a one game play-in.

 

Every single game the Cubs play for the rest of the year is against one of the five teams that matter in these scenarios. Essentially every win for the Cubs from here on out is worth two games on one of their magic numbers. The Phillies and Brewers start a four game series tonight. If one can go 3-1, it would virtually eliminate the other from being able to knock the Cubs out.

 

The Cubs are going to make the playoffs. I just don't know what they'll do once they get there.

[CubsBears29]

NL Playoffs HFA magic number : 12

 

NL Central magic number : 11

 

NL Postseason birth magic number : 8

[bukie]

7-9 here on out guarantees at least a play-in, and that's only if 2-3 teams play out of their minds and win out.

[Lefty]

NL Playoffs HFA magic number : 12

 

NL Central magic number : 11

 

NL Postseason birth magic number : 8

 

If we split with the Brewers we have the tiebreaker with them. If we go 2-4 we don't. If we split with the Mets we have the tiebreaker with them. If we go 1-3 we don't. So the "right" wins and our magic numbers could actually be less.

 

I try not to watch road games because I can't handle the pressure. After seeing the replays I am sure I would have enjoyed the end, but I may have preserved a few days of my life.

[Cubs 32]

Updated with tonight's results.

 

NL Central (Cubs magic number: 11)

Cubs 4-12...MIL 9-6 to tie (10-5 to win)

Cubs 5-11...MIL 10-5 (11-4)

Cubs 6-10...MIL 11-4 (12-3)

Cubs 7-9...MIL 12-3 (13-2)

Cubs 8-8...MIL 13-2 (14-1)

Cubs 9-7...MIL 14-1 (15-0)

Cubs 10-6...MIL 15-0

 

 

To make playoffs: Cubs "head-to head"* w/ PHI, STL, HOU (Cubs magic number: 8)

Cubs 4-12...PHI 12-3 to tie (13-2 to win)...STL 14-2 (15-1)...HOU 12-3 (13-2)

Cubs 5-11...PHI 13-2 (14-1)...STL 15-1 (16-0)...HOU 13-2 (14-1)

Cubs 6-10...PHI 14-1 (15-0)...STL 16-0...HOU 14-1 (15-0)

Cubs 7-9...PHI 15-0...STL (E)...HOU 15-0

Cubs 8-8...PHI (E)...HOU (E)

 

*Numbers/records only "head-to-head" (Cubs vs. Phils, etc.) and not including possibility of PHI going crazy and passing the Mets in the NL East, which would then put the Mets into the picture.

[bukie]

To make playoffs: Cubs "head-to head"* w/ PHI, STL, HOU (Cubs magic number: 8)

Cubs 4-12...PHI 12-3 to tie (13-2 to win)...STL 14-2 (15-1)...HOU 12-3 (13-2)

Cubs 5-11...PHI 13-2 (14-1)...STL 15-1 (16-0)...HOU 13-2 (14-1)

Cubs 6-10...PHI 14-1 (15-0)...STL 16-0...HOU 14-1 (15-0)

Cubs 7-9...PHI 15-0...STL (E)...HOU 15-0

Cubs 8-8...PHI (E)...HOU (E)

 

*Numbers/records only "head-to-head" (Cubs vs. Phils, etc.) and not including possibility of PHI going crazy and passing the Mets in the NL East, which would then put the Mets into the picture.

 

Technically, all of those scenarios involves the Phils going crazy (unless 13-2 isn't crazy?).

[manbearcub]

startin' to come together boys, startin' to come together.

[Cubs 32]

Technically, all of those scenarios involves the Phils going crazy (unless 13-2 isn't crazy?).

 

No doubt. Just throwing out the disclaimer.

 

Heck at this point, everyone chasing the cubs would need to go crazy in the above scenarios.

[David]

NL Playoffs HFA magic number : 12

 

NL Central magic number : 11

 

NL Postseason birth magic number : 8

 

If we split with the Brewers we have the tiebreaker with them. If we go 2-4 we don't. If we split with the Mets we have the tiebreaker with them. If we go 1-3 we don't. So the "right" wins and our magic numbers could actually be less.

 

I try not to watch road games because I can't handle the pressure. After seeing the replays I am sure I would have enjoyed the end, but I may have preserved a few days of my life.

 

Huh? What tie-breaker? Wouldn't it be a one game playoff? Do they have actual tie breakers like that for the home field or don't they just flip coins...?

 

Maybe I'm confused about something...

[SouthSideRyan]

NL Playoffs HFA magic number : 12

 

NL Central magic number : 11

 

NL Postseason birth magic number : 8

 

If we split with the Brewers we have the tiebreaker with them. If we go 2-4 we don't. If we split with the Mets we have the tiebreaker with them. If we go 1-3 we don't. So the "right" wins and our magic numbers could actually be less.

 

I try not to watch road games because I can't handle the pressure. After seeing the replays I am sure I would have enjoyed the end, but I may have preserved a few days of my life.

 

Huh? What tie-breaker? Wouldn't it be a one game playoff? Do they have actual tie breakers like that for the home field or don't they just flip coins...?

 

Maybe I'm confused about something...

 

Head to head record is the first tiebreaker for the less important things like determining who wins a division vs. being a wild card winner or for home field advantage. One game playoffs are for yer in or out situations only.

[David]

Oh, he was talking about division vs. wild card.. ok, got it...

[Cubs 32]

Updated through September 13th games.

 

NL Central (Cubs magic number: 10)

Cubs 4-12...MIL 9-5 to tie (10-4 to win)

Cubs 5-11...MIL 10-4 (11-3)

Cubs 6-10...MIL 11-3 (12-2)

Cubs 7-9...MIL 12-2 (13-1)

Cubs 8-8...MIL 13-1 (14-0)

Cubs 9-7...MIL 14-0

 

To make playoffs: Cubs "head-to head"* w/ PHI, STL, HOU (Cubs magic number: 8)

Cubs 4-12...PHI 11-3 to tie (12-2 to win)...HOU 12-3 (13-2)...STL 14-0

Cubs 5-11...PHI 12-2 (13-1)...HOU 13-2 (14-1)...STL (E)

Cubs 6-10...PHI 13-1 (14-0)...HOU 14-1 (15-0)

Cubs 7-9...PHI 14-0...HOU 15-0

Cubs 8-8...PHI (E)...HOU (E)

[CubsBears29]

Magic numbers through early games of 9/14;

 

NL HFA : 10

 

Division : 9

 

Postseason : 8

 

 

Games remaining for teams in contention of those 3 numbers;

 

CUBS; 16

HOU; 15

NYM; 14

MIL; 13

PHI; 13

[UMFan83]

We're at the point where if the Cubs go .500 the rest of the year, the Brewers have to go undefeated to tie us

[CubsBears29]

Magic numbers after Z's NO HITTER!!!!!! and MIL got swept in PHI;

 

NL HFA : 9

 

Division : 7

 

Postseason : 7

 

 

Games remaining for teams in contention of those 3 numbers;

 

CUBS; 15

HOU; 14

NYM; 14

MIL; 12

PHI; 12

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Odds for postseason 99.9%; odds for division 99.0%.

 

I think we got this one! :D

[CubInOK]

Season over.

[muskie]

Season over.

 

I am now feeling exceedingly reassured :-))