Magic Numbers - When?

[David]

I posted this in another thread, but whatever...

 

They were saying on Mac, Jurko, & Harry yesterday that it's fair to start counting down the magic number at 30 (like in the papers and stuff like that).

 

I actually saw a bar with the magic number out on their sign on Friday night.

 

Personally, I think anything before 10-15 is too soon, but I know none of us are too experienced in actually having a decent lead in the division with a few weeks to go. Usually, when we do get to the playoffs, we pull ahead toward the end and never actually see the higher magic numbers.

 

 

FWIW, it's presently at 31 for the division and 28 for the wild card.

[Brian707]

If I remember right the papers start when its at 25 for the division. The only number I will care about is 11 at the begining of the postseason.

[PrimeTime]

I not gonna jinx it and say were a lock for the playoffs but were pretty damn close and I can't wait for the playoffs to start.I love expecting to win everyday now and everyday is a day closer to the postseason. I just pray to God last years team doesn't show up where everyone is swinging at everything and they start pressing and it's like a whole new team shows up. I do not want to see that after the all-star break team show up at the playoffs.

[kjfoster 1553]

I not gonna jinx it and say were a lock for the playoffs but were pretty damn close and I can't wait for the playoffs to start.I love expecting to win everyday now and everyday is a day closer to the postseason. I just pray to God last years team doesn't show up where everyone is swinging at everything and they start pressing and it's like a whole new team shows up. I do not want to see that after the all-star break team show up at the playoffs.

 

You won't jinx it. We are going to make the playoffs. 99.5% chance.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

Edited August 20, 2008 by kjfoster 1553

[Brian707]

.

 

You won't jinx it. We are going to make the playoffs. 99.5% chance.

 

 

Thats about what our chances were of going to the Series after being up 3-1 on the Marlins in 2003

[bukie]

If the Cubs somehow completely choke and miss the playoffs, I might just have to stop following sports altogether for a while.

[CubinNY]

at 10.

 

All lists in America are in base 10. I think it's a law or something.

 

100

10

1

[SouthSideRyan]

at 10.

 

All lists in America are in base 10. I think it's a law or something.

 

100

10

1

 

How does one countdown from 1? Or have a top 1 list?

[kjfoster 1553]

.

 

You won't jinx it. We are going to make the playoffs. 99.5% chance.

 

 

Thats about what our chances were of going to the Series after being up 3-1 on the Marlins in 2003

 

I looked and can't find what our % chance was after game 4, but I would bet that it was less than 99.5%

[SouthSideRyan]

.

 

You won't jinx it. We are going to make the playoffs. 99.5% chance.

 

 

Thats about what our chances were of going to the Series after being up 3-1 on the Marlins in 2003

 

I looked and can't find what our % chance was after game 4, but I would bet that it was less than 99.5%

 

Even weighting for pitching matchups, and home field, no more than 85%.

[CubinNY]

at 10.

 

All lists in America are in base 10. I think it's a law or something.

 

100

10

1

 

How does one countdown from 1? Or have a top 1 list?

number 1 equals the best. When the number is zero it has no value. The Cubs have won. 1 is the big number.

[David]

.

 

You won't jinx it. We are going to make the playoffs. 99.5% chance.

 

 

Thats about what our chances were of going to the Series after being up 3-1 on the Marlins in 2003

 

I looked and can't find what our % chance was after game 4, but I would bet that it was less than 99.5%

 

Even weighting for pitching matchups, and home field, no more than 85%.

 

 

What about in the 8th inning of Game 6 after the first out was recorded? What were our odds to make the WS then?

[kjfoster 1553]

.

 

You won't jinx it. We are going to make the playoffs. 99.5% chance.

 

 

Thats about what our chances were of going to the Series after being up 3-1 on the Marlins in 2003

 

I looked and can't find what our % chance was after game 4, but I would bet that it was less than 99.5%

 

Even weighting for pitching matchups, and home field, no more than 85%.

 

 

What about in the 8th inning of Game 6 after the first out was recorded? What were our odds to make the WS then?

 

I probably can't find that either.

[David]

http://www.fangraphs.com/tgraphs/20031014_Marlins_Cubs_0.png

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Start counting from the moment it's relevant:

 

163.

[Brian707]

.

 

You won't jinx it. We are going to make the playoffs. 99.5% chance.

 

 

Thats about what our chances were of going to the Series after being up 3-1 on the Marlins in 2003

 

I looked and can't find what our % chance was after game 4, but I would bet that it was less than 99.5%

 

 

Well I remember being in Vegas after game four and the Marlins were 20-1 to reach the Series after being down 3-1 so I guess it was 95%????

[CubinNY]

http://www.fangraphs.com/tgraphs/20031014_Marlins_Cubs_0.png

Thanks, I'm having a PTSD falshback now. My wife is crying and the dogs are hiding.

[David]

:lol: :lol:

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

I hate you. Die. :)

[SouthSideRyan]

.

 

You won't jinx it. We are going to make the playoffs. 99.5% chance.

 

 

Thats about what our chances were of going to the Series after being up 3-1 on the Marlins in 2003

 

I looked and can't find what our % chance was after game 4, but I would bet that it was less than 99.5%

 

 

Well I remember being in Vegas after game four and the Marlins were 20-1 to reach the Series after being down 3-1 so I guess it was 95%????

 

Vegas odds aren't the actual odds of something happening. They're set to ensure that Vegas makes money, and when taking a national fanbase and nobody knowing who the hell the Marlins were, it's gonna be skewed to the Cubs.

 

8th inning of Game 6, it was probably like 96% to win the pennant.

 

At no point in that series were the Cubs a 99.5% favorite to win the NLCS.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

But anyways:

 

At the high point, fangraphs put us at 95.6% to win the game with one out in the eighth..

 

I think with Wood pitching and home-field, a 60% chance to win game seven would be a good estimate.

 

So the Marlins needed to hit on consecutive 4.4% and 40% chances, at a combined odds of 1.76%

 

So our high point was 98.24% to make it to the World Series, slightly lower than our current playoff odds (if you believe in the 'no-momentum' approach to analysis.)

[shnsajax]

I think the Angels can go ahead and start their magic number.

 

I would say 20 would be ok assuming the Cubs have at least a 3 game lead in the division. At 20 you could theoritically win it in 10 days.

 

I don't like magic numbers, but it's no where as bad as counting outs.

[Bull]

all of you referencing 2003 in this thread are dead to me now.

[aeaasie]

Magic number is a simple calcuation and I have been keeping track for a while now - 31 and counting

 

Go Cubs

[jersey cubs fan]

If the question is when are you allowed to talk about magic numbers, I'd say as soon as you can accurately figure it out.