Would you give Dempster 4 years, $56 million to keep him?

[badnews]

Pop quiz hotshot. Let's say he finishes the season as a strong #2 pitcher. 3.40 ERA, good K/9, good WHIP, good G/F ratio. The kindly Elias Sports Bureau makes him a Class B free agent.

 

What do you do?

 

What do you do?

[CoolHandLuke]

no

[Bote McBoteface]

Not a chance.

[badnews]

But it presents an interesting dilemma, does it not? Let's say the team gets to the World Series and loses in 7 games or something, what do you do? Bring back the team minus its #2 starter and not even get two draft picks in return? Or heck, what about Kerry Wood? He could be another Type B free agent, a shut down closer all year, do you throw Francisco Cordero money at him? All of a sudden you're faced with being so close, yet needed to add another $24 million a year in payroll (to say nothing in backloaded contracts) just to keep the current team together.

[Iowa Cub]

At least after making that BOLD World Series prediction prior to the season, he has done his part to get us in position to fulfill that.

[TruffleShuffle]

But it presents an interesting dilemma, does it not? Let's say the team gets to the World Series and loses in 7 games or something, what do you do? Bring back the team minus its #2 starter and not even get two draft picks in return? Or heck, what about Kerry Wood? He could be another Type B free agent, a shut down closer all year, do you throw Francisco Cordero money at him? All of a sudden you're faced with being so close, yet needed to add another $24 million a year in payroll (to say nothing in backloaded contracts) just to keep the current team together.

 

$24M more a year??? so you're suggesting that next year kerry wood and ryan dempster would be making $24M more next year than they are this year? that would imply that dempster, who is making $5.5M this year, would be making something like $20M next year (an additional $14.5M), while kerry wood, who will end up making probably around $6.5M this year once he fulfills incentives, would end up at $16M next year (an additional $9.5M).

 

so basically you are suggesting that dempster becomes the second highest paid pitcher in baseball to santana, and kerry wood becomes the highest paid relief pitcher. that is absolutely insane.

[C.C.]

Ask again in the second half. If he can keep this up I'd say 4/40ish. Along the lines of Ted Lilly's contract.

[Jehrico]

Pop quiz hotshot. Let's say he finishes the season as a strong #2 pitcher. 3.40 ERA, good K/9, good WHIP, good G/F ratio. The kindly Elias Sports Bureau makes him a Class B free agent.

 

What do you do?

 

What do you do?

I don't think it'll take that much or that long to resign him. He knows he's damaged goods and doesn't have a track record as a starter. He also likes it here. Hendry's pretty good at bringing back guys he wants to bring back, and he only has a track record of overpaying for the Neifi's, Jacques, and Blanco's of the world. Dempster isn't quite in that category. I'm pretty sure they'll come up with something fair and Demp will be back. My guess is he'll get a 3 year extension before the date players can file for free agency. How much that is will depend on how well the second half goes.

[rawaction]

No way does anyone give Dempster $14Mil/year. 4-years/$36Mil, is probably the max. If I'm the Cubs, I'd give him no more than 3 years at about $20-25Mil, with a 4th year option. And that's all dependent on what else the Cubs do this season. If you can trade for Sabathia and re-sign him, Dempster doesn't get an offer. If trade for Burnett or Harden, you have their contracts to take on and shouldn't pay Dempster in addition to one of those 2 and Zambrano, Lilly and Marquis.

[CubColtPacer]

No way does anyone give Dempster $14Mil/year. 4-years/$36Mil, is probably the max. If I'm the Cubs, I'd give him no more than 3 years at about $20-25Mil, with a 4th year option. And that's all dependent on what else the Cubs do this season. If you can trade for Sabathia and re-sign him, Dempster doesn't get an offer. If trade for Burnett or Harden, you have their contracts to take on and shouldn't pay Dempster in addition to one of those 2 and Zambrano, Lilly and Marquis.

 

I'm not so sure about that. 14 mil a year is pretty steep, but I easily see Dempster getting between 10 to 12 a year for 4 years. That would be comparable to the contracts of several other mediocre pitchers who have hit the market in the last couple years (Silva, Lilly, Meche, Suppan, etc.).

Why would Dempster automatically get less than those guys? His 3.40 ERA that badnews speculated would be the best contract year of any of them. Plus, you add in any playoff pitching which typically only inflates and rarely deflates any value for a mediocre pitcher.

 

An interesting thing that badnews brought up is..what type of free agent will Dempster be classified as? I honestly don't know how they average the statistics when you have a guy who was a reliever one year and a starter the next. His save and strikeout totals made him good in the 2007 rankings for closer. His wins, winning percentage, strikeouts, and ERA are all excellent right now, which means he'll be ranked highly on their system as a starting pitcher. If they average them together, he should be a type A FA. If they try to shoehorn him only into the starter system and just throw in his relief numbers from 2007 into the starter formula, he'll be a type B.

 

I wouldn't go 4 years 56 for Dempster. I doubt Wood will reach Cordero money, but if he does I'd have to let him go too.

[Jehrico]

No way does anyone give Dempster $14Mil/year. 4-years/$36Mil, is probably the max. If I'm the Cubs, I'd give him no more than 3 years at about $20-25Mil, with a 4th year option. And that's all dependent on what else the Cubs do this season. If you can trade for Sabathia and re-sign him, Dempster doesn't get an offer. If trade for Burnett or Harden, you have their contracts to take on and shouldn't pay Dempster in addition to one of those 2 and Zambrano, Lilly and Marquis.

I don't think I'd say he doesn't get an offer. He'd definitely be looking at a less attractive offer, but I wouldn't go out and not offer a contract to the guy who just turned in the best performance of any of your starters because you made a big name acquisition at the deadline. If he continues to outpitch the other starters, I'm going to make every effort to bring him back on a reasonable contract. Assuming he keeps up a sub 3.00 ERA this year, I'd be willing to offer as high as maybe 3 years at 33 mil (plus incentives if need be), or 4 years 40 mil with incentives. Those are max numbers. I'd offer incentives that would bring those up to around $15 mil per year if he kept performing at the level he is now. If I were a GM, every player would have incentives in their contract. I have no problem paying more after a player has excelled.

[Dr. Cub]

Pop quiz hotshot. Let's say he finishes the season as a strong #2 pitcher. 3.40 ERA, good K/9, good WHIP, good G/F ratio. The kindly Elias Sports Bureau makes him a Class B free agent.

 

What do you do?

 

What do you do?

 

 

That 3.40 ERA would mean he put up (assuming another 100-110 IP) a 4.25-4.30 ERA from here foward. Not exactly stellar, nor someone I'd want to pay that kind of money to.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Right now, I'd have to say no to that kind of money for Dempster.

 

However, if we have a new, deep-pocketed owner..cough...cough...Cuban...cough...cough...then, maybe I'd reconsider.

[mul21]

Ask again in the second half. If he can keep this up I'd say 4/40ish. Along the lines of Ted Lilly's contract.

 

This was exactly my thought. Maybe you can add on $1M/year and get him to go for a 3 yr deal at $32-33M.

[Soul]

Fewer years is better...

 

I agree, ask again after we see his 2nd half.

[badnews]

I think you guys are underestimating what teams will pay for what looks like good pitching. If Dempster has a good entire season and finishes with fine peripherals, why couldn't he get that money? This isn't like Kyle Lohse, we'd be talking about a guy who would have shown actual results. I don't see why he'd take 3 years, $33 million when he could get at least 4/52 with those numbers I think. Who else are teams going to spend that money on? Most teams could afford him in that area, unlike Sabathia.

 

As for Sabathia, I don't see how we're going to sign him, won't he get something like 6/120? His body will probably turn to mush after 30 anyway.

 

I'm not advocating giving him that much money. I'm saying two things:

 

1- It would be very hard to get so close and let both Dempster and Wood go.

 

2- The Elias Sports Bureau isn't very generous to guys who have one good year it seems. They go on track record more, at least that's how it seems to me. Heck, Dempster and Wood could both be non-compensatory guys. It's unlikely, but it could be. Carlos Silva didn't net a pick for the Twins, and did Gil Meche? I don't remember.

[CubColtPacer]

 

2- The Elias Sports Bureau isn't very generous to guys who have one good year it seems. They go on track record more, at least that's how it seems to me. Heck, Dempster and Wood could both be non-compensatory guys. It's unlikely, but it could be. Carlos Silva didn't net a pick for the Twins, and did Gil Meche? I don't remember.

 

Meche was a type B free agent.

 

Elias uses the 2 years before free agency to determine their rankings. The good thing for Wood and Dempster is they both should be high on the strikeouts category.

Wood should be helped by the fact that he's in a normally weak relief pitcher class, while he's hurt by the fact that playing time is a major factor, and he missed 2/3 of the year last year. Wood's save totals this year will also be a huge asset to his ranking.

 

Dempster will be a fascinating case. On a relief pitcher scale last year, he was pretty good. He had a high ERA, but that was balanced out by pretty high strikeout totals and a decently high save count.

 

This year, as a starting pitcher, he's got everything Elias seems to like. He's durable. He wins lots of games at a good percentage. He has a good ERA. He has high strikeout totals.

 

Unfortuantely, I have a feeling they'll lump both of Dempster's years together and simply classify him as a starting pitcher without any adjustments. That will hurt his innings pitched number, his wins, his winning percentage, pretty much everything.

[Pushfrog98]

Pop quiz hotshot. Let's say he finishes the season as a strong #2 pitcher. 3.40 ERA, good K/9, good WHIP, good G/F ratio. The kindly Elias Sports Bureau makes him a Class B free agent.

 

What do you do?

 

What do you do?

That's easy... I'd shoot him in the knee.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Was Dempster really that bad as a reliever that he wouldn't be a Type A if he ended up with that type of season? Better question, how does Elias handle someone who changes roles/positions within the 2 year timeframe?

[Irrelevant Dude]

With everything I've read about Dempster and how much he loves playing in Chicago, I think he would be a good candidate for a hometown discount.

[Anomalied]

No way I'd give him four years. Maybe something like 2 years / 16 million, with incentives and a club option for a third year.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I think it's pretty clear Dempster is going to get a 3-4 year deal. The amount he gets remains to be seen. My guess is that he'll get anywhere from 10-14 million per at 3-4 years based on what pitchers have gotten in previous off-seasons.

[RynoRules]

I think it's pretty clear Dempster is going to get a 3-4 year deal. The amount he gets remains to be seen. My guess is that he'll get anywhere from 10-14 million per at 3-4 years based on what pitchers have gotten in previous off-seasons.

 

If and only if he keeps this up. If he doesn't and goes back to his norm, don't you think he is looking closer to 3 yrs and 24-27 mill?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I think it's pretty clear Dempster is going to get a 3-4 year deal. The amount he gets remains to be seen. My guess is that he'll get anywhere from 10-14 million per at 3-4 years based on what pitchers have gotten in previous off-seasons.

 

If and only if he keeps this up. If he doesn't and goes back to his norm, don't you think he is looking closer to 3 yrs and 24-27 mill?

 

He'd have to stink it up pretty bad the rest of the way to drag his numbers low enough for him not to get a 3/30 or higher deal.

[waffle]

would like to but probably couldn't bring myself to do it.

 

He certainly has done everything we could possibly ask of him.