Re: College Basketball 2008-2009

[Exile on Waveland]

Big 10 folks, how badly will MSU fist KU in East Lansing?

 

It should be a good game. However, Michigan State is playing much better as of late, is very tough at home, Kansas lost their one road game by 17 to Arizona, and it wouldn't surprise me if Michigan State sees this as another out-of-conference "statement" game after their humiliating loss to North Carolina (though perhaps the win against Texas already eased some of that).

[Exile on Waveland]

Who said Penn St. was going 5-13?

 

Sagarin

 

I doubt they finish that poorly. Pomeroy has them finishing 8-10, which looks more reasonable to me. They already have two conference wins and have two games left against Indiana. They'll win more than five.

 

On Northwestern, they are much improved no doubt. They'll win a number of games in the league. I seriously doubt, however, they'll win enough to make the NCAA Tournament. They are already 0-2, meaning they'll have to go at least 10-6 to garner consideration (especially since their best non-conference win is against Pomeroy #72 Florida State). Not only that, but it will be imperative they win a couple against teams that finish at the top of the conference. I just don't see them winning enough, nor enough of the right games, to make the tournament.

[Hosak8]

maybe the experts are just idiots

 

Two minutes here should convince you of this. Every expert in every field is far dumber than the collective intelligence represented at NSBB.

 

Especially in math. All those other experts are just Salieri.

 

Also the Big Bang Theory or something.

 

Isn't there some Big Ten11 bashing somewhere on the interwebs that you need to go and refute?

[Andy]

I understand the spirit of the "7+ teams from the Big Ten could make the tourney" argument, but with eight Big East teams almost assuredly making it (nine are ranked right now), there are only so many at-large bids to go around.

 

And Raisin, looks like we both want to beat each other that much more with our mutual Texas win going downhill.

[Guest]

And Raisin, looks like we both want to beat each other that much more with our mutual Texas win going downhill.

 

UCLA lost to Texas.

[UMFan83]

I understand the spirit of the "7+ teams from the Big Ten could make the tourney" argument, but with eight Big East teams almost assuredly making it (nine are ranked right now), there are only so many at-large bids to go around.

 

And Raisin, looks like we both want to beat each other that much more with our mutual Texas win going downhill.

 

That should hopefully change once they get a chance to beat up on each other. But then again, they have a lot more gimmies (South Florida, DePaul) than the Big 10 has.

[Andy]

And Raisin, looks like we both want to beat each other that much more with our mutual Texas win going downhill.

 

UCLA lost to Texas.

Well, I need to pay attention.

[Andy]

I understand the spirit of the "7+ teams from the Big Ten could make the tourney" argument, but with eight Big East teams almost assuredly making it (nine are ranked right now), there are only so many at-large bids to go around.

 

And Raisin, looks like we both want to beat each other that much more with our mutual Texas win going downhill.

 

That should hopefully change once they get a chance to beat up on each other. But then again, they have a lot more gimmies (South Florida, DePaul) than the Big 10 has.

Yeah, Rutgers (at least home games with Rutgers) and St. John's (who SHOULD be a layup for the good teams) also. That will help us a bit. Of course, we're stuck with UConn and Louisville as two-fers, though Louisville is not looking as imposing as they once did.

[SouthSideRyan]

I understand the spirit of the "7+ teams from the Big Ten could make the tourney" argument, but with eight Big East teams almost assuredly making it (nine are ranked right now), there are only so many at-large bids to go around.

 

 

The Big East, Big Ten, and ACC are going to suck up most of the at large bids.

 

The SEC and Big XII are way down, and I have a hard time seeing either getting more than 3 at larges. That leaves 28 at large bids to the remaining 4 BCS conferences/Mid-Majors. I think at max the Pac 10 takes 5 at larges, that puts you at 23 for the 3 conferences/Mid Majors. Assume 7 for the Big East and you're 16. Then you've got the ACC which is pretty top heavy. Duke, UNC, Clemson, and Wake are locks. After that, you have Maryland, BC, and Miami which look okayish right now. After them, there's not much of anything. That brings you to 10.

 

As far as mid major threats, the only one that looks safe to take an at large is the Mountain West.(2 if their lucky) After that you've got Conference USA, Horizon, West Coast, and Metro each trying to sneak in an at large as a 12 seed.

 

Of course there are upsets in the conference tourneys, but you've got a weak mid-major field this season, and 2 conferences which are way down. Even assuming what I did above, which I think is generous(I could see any of those conferences taking 1 less bid than they are, and can't see any taking more than I gave except the Big East and maybe the Big 12.) the road is still there for 7 Big Ten teams.

[fromthestretch]

I will laugh when Purdue doesn't make the tournament. What a pathetic disgrace.

 

I'll readily admit they haven't exactly looked like a great team for a few weeks, but calling them a "pathetic disgrace" is ridiculous. They're missing two starters due to injury: the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year and a First Team All Big Ten selection. Any team is going to struggle when two key players miss time due to injury. If those two have to miss a significant amount of time (especially Hummel), it's going to be a tough conference season. That doesn't make them anything close to a "pathetic disgrace" though.

 

Unless I'm mistaken, yesterday was the first game they've missed. They're not a terrible basketball team - and pathetic disgrace was just the frustration talking. That being said they should not be ranked and are/were very over-hyped. If they do end up 9-9 and are on the outside looking in come tournament time I think pathetic disgrace fits. How often does a pre-season team with that much hype completely miss the tournament?

 

While this is the first game they've missed together, Kramer's missed at least one other (and had another game where he barely played), and Hummel's missed one other game.

 

I don't think it's fair to say they were overhyped. If they were to finish 9-9 in the Big Ten with a healthy team, then yes, that would be a pathetic disgrace. When two of their starters go down, I think you can throw the rankings out the window and make the best with what you have.

[bcl412]

Iowa barely beating Indiana isn't looking as unimpressive as Indiana is whooping Michigan right now.

[TruffleShuffle]

michigan relies way too heavily on the three. almost half their FG attempts are outside the arc, and tonight about 2/3 of their shots (19 of 29) were 3 point attempts. if they have a night where their shooters aren't hitting, they'll lose bad, even if they're playing a bad team like indiana.

[bcl412]

michigan relies way too heavily on the three. almost half their FG attempts are outside the arc, and tonight about 2/3 of their shots (19 of 29) were 3 point attempts. if they have a night where their shooters aren't hitting, they'll lose bad, even if they're playing a bad team like indiana.

 

There is no reason that they shouldn't be able to put up points on the inside against them. Hell, Iowa is just as perimeter oriented as Michigan is and they were able to score a bunch on the inside when they played them. Michigan just keeps forcing up threes early in the shot clock and it is killing them.

[hawkeyecub]

Oh dear, how will SSR alter his projections?

 

Iowa went from being much better than expected to a sure 10th place and not likely to win 6 games after beating IU by 5.

Michigan beat Illinois at home by 10 the next day.

Indiana is beating Michigan by 17 at halftime in each of their next games.

 

So now is Michigan a sure 10th despite the good non-conference?

How bad must Illinois be to have lost to a team that's losing by 17 to an absolutely awful team?

 

Or should we probably not get carried away about the results of one or two games this early in the year? Maybe wait 5-6 games before being sure how the middle-bottom of the league will shape up.

 

By the way I said Sunday that IU would win 4 games this year.

[bukie]

Oh dear, how will SSR alter his projections?

 

Iowa went from being much better than expected to a sure 10th place and not likely to win 6 games after beating IU by 5.

Michigan beat Illinois at home by 10 the next day.

Indiana is beating Michigan by 17 at halftime in each of their next games.

 

So now is Michigan a sure 10th despite the good non-conference?

How bad must Illinois be to have lost to a team that's losing by 17 to an absolutely awful team?

 

Or should we probably not get carried away about the results of one or two games this early in the year? Maybe wait 5-6 games before being sure how the middle-bottom of the league will shape up.

 

By the way I said Sunday that IU would win 4 games this year.

So, you are taunting about getting carried away about the results of one or two games, with your reasoning being the results of half of one game. I seem to remember something about pots and kettles.

[manbearcub]

Oh dear, how will SSR alter his projections?

 

Iowa went from being much better than expected to a sure 10th place and not likely to win 6 games after beating IU by 5.

Michigan beat Illinois at home by 10 the next day.

Indiana is beating Michigan by 17 at halftime in each of their next games.

 

So now is Michigan a sure 10th despite the good non-conference?

How bad must Illinois be to have lost to a team that's losing by 17 to an absolutely awful team?

 

Or should we probably not get carried away about the results of one or two games this early in the year? Maybe wait 5-6 games before being sure how the middle-bottom of the league will shape up.

 

By the way I said Sunday that IU would win 4 games this year.

So, you are taunting about getting carried away about the results of one or two games, with your reasoning being the results of half of one game. I seem to remember something about pots and kettles.

 

You dont read very well do you?

[bcl412]

Hoosiers looking like they will blow this one but I am glad that they are putting up a fight against someone else in the conference too. I think they'll probably beat us now in Bloomington.

[manbearcub]

Michigan is very lucky.

[hawkeyecub]

Michigan is very lucky.

 

Incredible stupidity by Devan Dumes and 6 missed free throws in overtime. If he's not an idiot that doesn't go to overtime.

 

And bukie could you not tell that every line in that post was dripping with sarcasm until the last two lines.

[SouthSideRyan]

I never altered my projections. I had Iowa taking 10th all season long. I had Iowa winning less than 6 games all season long. The fact that I said they were better than I expected didn't mean I had them better than this. I've also had Michigan as not that good all year. But no I said Iowa sucked(along with most everyone else, including Iowa fans), so yeah, I'm crazy.

[SouthSideRyan]

And can we ban the transitive property in this thread?

[SouthSideRyan]

And Iowa was playing at home in what was a horribly ugly game.

 

Michigan was on the road, I didn't see the game, though I'm sure it was ugly as well.

[UMFan83]

I think its pretty obvious that we are not going to know what Michigan is going to show up from game to game. Could it be the UM that beat Duke, UCLA and Illinois or could it be the UM that barely beat Savannah State, barely beat Indiana and lost to Wisconsin?

 

Michigan could beat anyone in the Big Ten but could easily lose to anyone in the Big Ten. That sounds like a slightly below .500 Big Ten record to me. No NCAA Tourney :( Shucks, I've been waiting 11 years for one.

[hawkeyecub]

And Iowa was playing at home in what was a horribly ugly game.

 

Michigan was on the road, I didn't see the game, though I'm sure it was ugly as well.

 

The game tonight was even uglier. At least the second half. The only difference was the officials didn't call fouls every other possession. IU threw some of the goofiest passes I've ever seen. Devan Dumes made some of the worst decisions I've ever seen.

 

And really my point wasn't to discuss Iowa. I know you think they stink. They very may well stink although they'll win at least 6 Big Ten games.

 

I'm just wondering how Illinois losing by 10 to such a bad Michigan team fits in.

[UMFan83]

And Iowa was playing at home in what was a horribly ugly game.

 

Michigan was on the road, I didn't see the game, though I'm sure it was ugly as well.

 

The game tonight was even uglier. At least the second half. The only difference was the officials didn't call fouls every other possession. IU threw some of the goofiest passes I've ever seen. Devan Dumes made some of the worst decisions I've ever seen.

 

And really my point wasn't to discuss Iowa. I know you think they stink. They very may well stink although they'll win at least 6 Big Ten games.

 

I'm just wondering how Illinois losing by 10 to such a bad Michigan team fits in.

 

Stuff happens. Maybe the Illini had a bad day, maybe they didn't match up well against the 1-3-1, etc. You absolutely cannot judge a team based on one game, especially in the wacky Big Ten.