Re: College Basketball 2008-2009

[Derwood]

Notre Dame scared the crap out of me tonight but extended their homecourt win streak to 41, 74-67 over Boston U. Harangody racked up 23 and 15, taking over in the 2nd half. McAlarney rang up 16.

 

you guys have some pretty lax "favorite team" rules in Indiana

Come again?

 

CubbieBum is a fan of like 4 teams. I thought I was quoting him (you both have Ball St. sigs)

[Sosa21MVP]

Arizona upset Gonzaga today.

[bukie]

IU is not a good team but hey, we can get 7 wins before Big Ten play starts. I wasn't sure if we would win 7 games all season.

 

They've done better than I thought. I woulda had them losing to Cornell. Northeastern too, though I still think that'll be a game.

 

The bad news for IU is that the Big Ten's bottom looks better than expected. I had them beating Iowa in Bloomington, but after Iowa's play thus far, I'm thinking that game's more of a toss up. The other teams I thought they'd have a chance against(UM and NU) are probably the 2 most overachieving teams in the conference.

 

People on here make fun of this IU team, but they've done much better than expected. I thought a split between Cornell and TCU would be a good result, they won both with relative ease. Yesterday's game was ugly to begin with, of course, but that was probably only one of two halves I've been terribly disappointed with (the second half against St. Joe's being the other). According to Sagarin, IU has played easily the most difficult schedule in the Big Ten (No. 37 to Michigan's No. 80 then Michigan State's No. 116). That's made them look worse, too.

 

Problem is, as you said, the Big Ten is much better than anyone expected. I figured on 2-4 conference wins. That has become a more difficult goal than I would have thought, but one I still think reasonable. I'm not sure there will be a single game they're favored in, nor a game I will expect them to win. Still, it's college basketball and upsets happen -- especially with a strong homecourt advantage.

 

Based on current (early) Sagarin data, IU wouldn't be favored to win a single game in conference at this point. They would, however, be predicted within 10 points in all but one home game (Ohio State). The other team that's far enough ahead of them to be favored by more than 10 points is the only team they don't have a home game with (Purdue...wtf?)

 

EDIT: For no other reason than I think it's interesting, here are conference predictions based on Sagarin data:

Team             W    L
-----------------------
Ohio State      14    4
Purdue          14    4
Illinois	     12    6
Michigan State  12    6
Northwestern    11    7
Wisconsin        9    9
Michigan         8   10
Iowa             8   10
Penn State       6   12
Minnesota        5   13
Indiana          0   18

[Guest]

Holy crap, what got into Arizona? :shock:

[rchap24]

Purdue won, although closer than I would like, and Hummel had a great game. His average is now up to 15.6 to go with 6.9 rebounds. He's averaging more points, rebounds, assists and steals than last year while playing a couple minutes less per game.

 

It was a little to close for comfort up until our 13-0 run a few minutes into the second half...after that I wasn't to worried

[bcl412]

IU is not a good team but hey, we can get 7 wins before Big Ten play starts. I wasn't sure if we would win 7 games all season.

 

They've done better than I thought. I woulda had them losing to Cornell. Northeastern too, though I still think that'll be a game.

 

The bad news for IU is that the Big Ten's bottom looks better than expected. I had them beating Iowa in Bloomington, but after Iowa's play thus far, I'm thinking that game's more of a toss up. The other teams I thought they'd have a chance against(UM and NU) are probably the 2 most overachieving teams in the conference.

 

People on here make fun of this IU team, but they've done much better than expected. I thought a split between Cornell and TCU would be a good result, they won both with relative ease. Yesterday's game was ugly to begin with, of course, but that was probably only one of two halves I've been terribly disappointed with (the second half against St. Joe's being the other). According to Sagarin, IU has played easily the most difficult schedule in the Big Ten (No. 37 to Michigan's No. 80 then Michigan State's No. 116). That's made them look worse, too.

 

Problem is, as you said, the Big Ten is much better than anyone expected. I figured on 2-4 conference wins. That has become a more difficult goal than I would have thought, but one I still think reasonable. I'm not sure there will be a single game they're favored in, nor a game I will expect them to win. Still, it's college basketball and upsets happen -- especially with a strong homecourt advantage.

 

Based on current (early) Sagarin data, IU wouldn't be favored to win a single game in conference at this point. They would, however, be predicted within 10 points in all but one home game (Ohio State). The other team that's far enough ahead of them to be favored by more than 10 points is the only team they don't have a home game with (Purdue...wtf?)

 

EDIT: For no other reason than I think it's interesting, here are conference predictions based on Sagarin data:

Team             W    L
-----------------------
Ohio State      14    4
Purdue          14    4
Illinois	     12    6
Michigan State  12    6
Northwestern    11    7
Wisconsin        9    9
Michigan         8   10
Iowa             8   10
Penn State       6   12
Minnesota        5   13
Indiana          0   18

 

8-10 for Iowa. That would almost equal a 20 win season, depending on how they did vs Drake and in the BTT.

[SouthSideRyan]

Pomeroy predictor is up now at kenpom.com

 

Current models would put Northwestern pretty safely in the tourney.(along with OSU, Purdue, and Illinois)

[UMFan83]

Pomeroy predictor is up now at kenpom.com

 

Current models would put Northwestern pretty safely in the tourney.(along with OSU, Purdue, and Illinois)

 

Hah, it has them going 22-7. That would be awesome. NW has been awesome and I've watched 2 of their games this year. I'm by no means a Northwestern fan, but I'll be cheering for them to make their first tourney.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Holy moly, Pomeroy has Mizzou going 14-2 in the conference right now, losing 2 point games @Texas and @Kansas.

 

 

It also gives UNC a 12% chance to run the table.

[bukie]

Holy moly, Pomeroy has Mizzou going 14-2 in the conference right now, losing 2 point games @Texas and @Kansas.

 

 

It also gives UNC a 12% chance to run the table.

It also has Mizzou beating Illinois. Something must be off in his calculations. ;)

 

EDIT: On a side note, I'm also rooting for NW to make the tourney this year, and the combination of a somewhat favorable conference schedule and their performance thus far should be enough to ensure it.

[SouthSideRyan]

Holy moly, Pomeroy has Mizzou going 14-2 in the conference right now, losing 2 point games @Texas and @Kansas.

 

 

It also gives UNC a 12% chance to run the table.

 

They wouldn't be undefeated, but he's giving Georgetown a 17% chance to finish off the season without a loss.

 

To those not familiar with these, (as is the case with most projections) it's important to note the role sample size plays here, and not to put a ton of stock into these at this point. It's still fun though.

 

ETA: Holy crap Zags: 76%!

 

Edit again, nevermind those are in conference play. Still a 17% chance at undefeated in the Big East is damn impressive. Pomeroy thinks the WCC sucks.

[ConstableRabbit]

Pomeroy predictor is up now at kenpom.com

 

Current models would put Northwestern pretty safely in the tourney.(along with OSU, Purdue, and Illinois)

I will probably have a heart attack if we make it.

[TruffleShuffle]

Pomeroy predictor is up now at kenpom.com

 

Current models would put Northwestern pretty safely in the tourney.(along with OSU, Purdue, and Illinois)

 

i don't really understand why the predictor is all about northwestern, since they've beaten a bunch of cream puffs and florida state, plus they played butler close (but b/c they play such a slow style, they're gonna play a lot of teams close, good and bad).

 

amusingly, it has northwestern winning the next 20 games in a row (or at least more likely than not to win each game).

[SouthSideRyan]

Pomeroy predictor is up now at kenpom.com

 

Current models would put Northwestern pretty safely in the tourney.(along with OSU, Purdue, and Illinois)

 

i don't really understand why the predictor is all about northwestern, since they've beaten a bunch of cream puffs and florida state, plus they played butler close (but b/c they play such a slow style, they're gonna play a lot of teams close, good and bad).

 

amusingly, it has northwestern winning the next 20 games in a row (or at least more likely than not to win each game).

 

But they didn't play those bad teams close. A double digit win at NU's pace is essentially a blow out. Losing that close one to Butler on the road is huge. I(and probably everybody else anywhere, including Pomeroy himself) am not as high on Northwestern as the predictor, but I like them for an NIT berth this year.

[CubbieBum]

Notre Dame scared the crap out of me tonight but extended their homecourt win streak to 41, 74-67 over Boston U. Harangody racked up 23 and 15, taking over in the 2nd half. McAlarney rang up 16.

 

you guys have some pretty lax "favorite team" rules in Indiana

Come again?

 

CubbieBum is a fan of like 4 teams. I thought I was quoting him (you both have Ball St. sigs)

 

Ummm what???

 

I grew up in West Lafayette so I'm as big of a Purdue fan as it gets. I go to Ball State so I support them. That's it. The only other thing I've said is I root for the Big Ten in the non-conference which just about everyone does. Let's not throw insults at someone who has nothing to do with the conversation just to cover up your own mistake.

[CubbieBum]

I was a little annoyed last week now I'm onto a little pissed off. Purdue goes 2-0 in the week and falls a spot in the polls. Also Notre Dame is still ahead of Purdue despite one of their losses being to an unranked team, while Purdue has two losses to top 6 teams.

[illiniguy]

I was a little annoyed last week now I'm onto a little pissed off. Purdue goes 2-0 in the week and falls a spot in the polls. Also Notre Dame is still ahead of Purdue despite one of their losses being to an unranked team, while Purdue has two losses to top 6 teams.

It's too bad they don't have a tournement at the end of the year that makes these rankings pointless. ;)

[Exile on Waveland]

I was a little annoyed last week now I'm onto a little pissed off. Purdue goes 2-0 in the week and falls a spot in the polls. Also Notre Dame is still ahead of Purdue despite one of their losses being to an unranked team, while Purdue has two losses to top 6 teams.

 

Sure, Notre Dame lost to an "unranked" team, but Ohio State is now ranked and beat two top-25 teams in the same week, neither at home. It's unfair to paint that loss as a bad one. It wasn't. Also, Notre Dame has a win over Texas; Purdue has a win over . . . Boston College? Purdue has done little to nothing to deserve a ranking ahead of Notre Dame.

[CubbieBum]

I was a little annoyed last week now I'm onto a little pissed off. Purdue goes 2-0 in the week and falls a spot in the polls. Also Notre Dame is still ahead of Purdue despite one of their losses being to an unranked team, while Purdue has two losses to top 6 teams.

 

Sure, Notre Dame lost to an "unranked" team, but Ohio State is now ranked and beat two top-25 teams in the same week, neither at home. It's unfair to paint that loss as a bad one. It wasn't. Also, Notre Dame has a win over Texas; Purdue has a win over . . . Boston College? Purdue has done little to nothing to deserve a ranking ahead of Notre Dame.

 

Yeah I said last week they should be right next to each other in the polls. They are I believe four spots apart in the polls right now. The AP poll has it right.

 

I also don't see how UCLA can be above them. Same number of losses but UCLA lost to Michigan. That's not knocking on Michigan, just as I wasn't knocking on Ohio State. Those two teams just aren't as a good as Duke or Oklahoma which is who Purdue has lost to. Notre Dame has an even bigger grievance with UCLA being above them in the ESPN/USA Today poll. ND beat Texas UCLA lost to them. Granted one wasn't at Texas and the other was but you can't have UCLA above ND.

[CubbieBum]

I was a little annoyed last week now I'm onto a little pissed off. Purdue goes 2-0 in the week and falls a spot in the polls. Also Notre Dame is still ahead of Purdue despite one of their losses being to an unranked team, while Purdue has two losses to top 6 teams.

It's too bad they don't have a tournament at the end of the year that makes these rankings pointless. ;)

 

Wonderful for that tournament. However its 3 almost 4 months away at this point so rankings is all we have to debate about. Plus rankings do matter some (albeit little) because the higher you are judged nationally the better you tend to fare come seeding. Sure if Purdue plays well they will rise but that doesn't mean I can't be annoyed/pissed off that voters are being stupid.

[UMFan83]

Pomeroy predictor is up now at kenpom.com

 

Current models would put Northwestern pretty safely in the tourney.(along with OSU, Purdue, and Illinois)

 

i don't really understand why the predictor is all about northwestern, since they've beaten a bunch of cream puffs and florida state, plus they played butler close (but b/c they play such a slow style, they're gonna play a lot of teams close, good and bad).

 

amusingly, it has northwestern winning the next 20 games in a row (or at least more likely than not to win each game).

 

But they didn't play those bad teams close. A double digit win at NU's pace is essentially a blow out. Losing that close one to Butler on the road is huge. I(and probably everybody else anywhere, including Pomeroy himself) am not as high on Northwestern as the predictor, but I like them for an NIT berth this year.

 

Have some optimism, they look impressive. I know you don't want to get your hopes up, but I think the Tourney is at least a decent shot (35%?)

[SouthSideRyan]

Pomeroy predictor is up now at kenpom.com

 

Current models would put Northwestern pretty safely in the tourney.(along with OSU, Purdue, and Illinois)

 

i don't really understand why the predictor is all about northwestern, since they've beaten a bunch of cream puffs and florida state, plus they played butler close (but b/c they play such a slow style, they're gonna play a lot of teams close, good and bad).

 

amusingly, it has northwestern winning the next 20 games in a row (or at least more likely than not to win each game).

 

But they didn't play those bad teams close. A double digit win at NU's pace is essentially a blow out. Losing that close one to Butler on the road is huge. I(and probably everybody else anywhere, including Pomeroy himself) am not as high on Northwestern as the predictor, but I like them for an NIT berth this year.

 

Have some optimism, they look impressive. I know you don't want to get your hopes up, but I think the Tourney is at least a decent shot (35%?)

 

 

Err, I'm not a Northwestern fan. I don't dislike them, and it'd be cool to see them make the tourney, but it's no skin off my back if they don't. Top of my head, I'd put them at ~16-13/17-12 heading into the Big Ten tourney.

[Guest]

Seriously, who cares about polls in college basketball?

[Exile on Waveland]

Seriously, who cares about polls in college basketball?

 

I thought no one.

[UMFan83]

Sorry about Syracuse, but that Cleveland State buzzer beater was awesome.