Stone on WSCR - Pitcher at the deadline

[David]

You're consistently quite pessimistic, UMFan. I mean, we're all Cubs fans, so pessimism is natural. But to just outright dismiss the Cubs chances in October as you have is a bit ridiculous considering their play so far and the talent on the roster.

 

He's just being realistic. We need another starter if we want to go deep into October.

 

We really don't.

 

It would certainly be nice. But we don't NEED it. The MLB playoffs are quite a bit of a crapshoot, with or without dominant pitching.

 

What we need to do is win 3 out of 5, then 4 out of 7, and 4 out of 7 again. :wink:

[David]

That doesn't mean I don't want one. I definitely do. Seeing this team go into a playoff series with this offense and two shutdown starters would be nothing short of beautiful.

[C.C.]

That doesn't mean I don't want one. I definitely do. Seeing this team go into a playoff series with this offense and two shutdown starters would be nothing short of beautiful.

 

It would be 2003 but with a better offense.

[Flames24Rulz]

You're consistently quite pessimistic, UMFan. I mean, we're all Cubs fans, so pessimism is natural. But to just outright dismiss the Cubs chances in October as you have is a bit ridiculous considering their play so far and the talent on the roster.

 

He's just being realistic. We need another starter if we want to go deep into October.

 

We really don't.

 

It would certainly be nice. But we don't NEED it. The MLB playoffs are quite a bit of a crapshoot, with or without dominant pitching.

 

What we need to do is win 3 out of 5, then 4 out of 7, and 4 out of 7 again. :wink:

 

Eh, I'm a bit leery of having Dempster and Lilly as the 2 and 3 starters in the playoff rotation.

 

If we were to land someone like Sabathia or Burnett, it would increase my confidence in this team dramatically.

[anabiono]

anyone paying any attention to burnett at all should realize that he has done nothing but improve since opening day...

 

i will take sabathia...but i don't count out the indians

 

i have wanted burnett since november...

 

even though this is speculation or whatever...this is great news...as long as everybody stays healthy...i have faith that hendry will make a good deal for this team

 

and then i will probably not be able to sleep for 3 months

[erik316wttn]

Nice knowing you Felix.

If he nets us Sabathia, I will not miss him

 

Any Sabathia deal should hinge on him signing to an extention, otherwise he's not worth Pie.

[PrimeTime]

If we do fail this season or in the playoffs it will be because of our rotation..We need like a Webb - Haren combo..Jimbo needs to go get a Sabathia or Harden..I'm not going to count on Gallagher,Marquis and Lilly..You just don't know what your going to get..We need another dominant starter to go with Z

[inari]

Nice knowing you Felix.

If he nets us Sabathia, I will not miss him

 

Any Sabathia deal should hinge on him signing to an extention, otherwise he's not worth Pie.

 

I disagree enormously, considering Sabathia would make us the favorites to win the World Series.

[UMFan83]

You're consistently quite pessimistic, UMFan. I mean, we're all Cubs fans, so pessimism is natural. But to just outright dismiss the Cubs chances in October as you have is a bit ridiculous considering their play so far and the talent on the roster.

 

Woah, just because I try not to get sky high when things are going good doesn't mean I'm always a pessimist. I'm just not one of those guys that say "OMG we are for certain the best team in the NL and on June 2nd I can definitively say that we are talented enough to ensure a World Series appearance". OK, I am generally a pessimist, but I am not outright dismissing the Cubs chances in October. I am basically saying that all things equal, the playoffs are a crapshoot, and pitching is the one thing that can quantify a team's chances in October. So instead of hoping that Soriano happens to not be in one of his 2-30 spells when the playoffs arrive, I'd rather know I can count on having 2 lock down starters in October who consistently pitch to the best hitters in baseball.

 

Look, the list of teams that have started out equally hot or more as the Cubs and flopped either before the playoffs or in the postseason is numerous. Do you know how many 100 win teams this decade have crapped out in the first round of the playoffs? It's more than a couple. The 2007 Mets, the previous years NLCS loser, and loaded with talent, started out 37-21. Sound familiar?

 

I know these posts are going to make me seem like the board's doom and gloom guy. I really am enjoying the Cubs play, and I'm not trying to bring anyone down. They really can win the World Series this year. But I am a realist, and I know that teams like the 2002 Red Sox, who started 42-15 and didn't make the playoffs, the 1977 Cubs (47-22), the 69 Cubs, etc etc have been there before and let their fans down. I look at the Cubs starters as not good enough, and I think its essential that we pick up a front line starter to ensure we have a good October.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

Ehhh...I don't know. It could win. I just can't see us matching up against Webb and Haren four times in a possible 5 game series with Zambrano, Lilly and Dempster. The Cubs face a pitcher the caliber of Webb or Haren maybe twice a month in the regular season. In the playoffs, they will be facing them much more frequently. Not to steal a stereotype (especially one that has been proven wrong on a few occasions), but pitching wins in October.

 

I'm not discrediting the fact that the Cubs could win as currently assembled, but at this point, I wouldn't put us as the unanimous favorites in the NL. We're right up there, but I think the DBacks, despite their slippage, and the Phillies are still right up there. At this point we basically have to hope that we are the hottest team coming into October.

 

 

I don't know how people can talk about whether a team "could" win or not in the playoffs after all the random, weird results that happen in short series. The 2006 Cardinals won in October, we "can" win in October. Right now, we are the best team in the NL and it isn't close. That probably doesn't buy us much more than a 60% chance at any given short series, but that's the best we can hope for.

 

Baseball Prospectus identified three attributes of teams that excel in the playoffs:

 

1) A high-leverage, shut down reliever. This favors the Phillies (Lidge is No. 1 in WRXL in all of baseball) and the Cubs (Marmol is No. 2).

 

2) Team defensive efficiency. We are second in the NL after leading it last year, behind Atlanta. Then comes Florida and Arizona.

 

3) A high-K pitching staff. We are fourth in the league, but only 9 behind Arizona for third, and 1-2 aren't likely playoff teams.

 

So I'd say the Cubs are not only the best team, but they are the one best "built" for October.

 

That said, even if we were 65% favorites to win both series, that still means there's a 58% chance we would not make it to the World Series, let alone win it.

 

Short playoff series are virtual coin flips, but we have as good or better a chance than anyone in the NL.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

To sum what I'm trying to say:

 

With or with a second stud starting pitcher, we probably aren't going to the World Series. Nobody is ever a favorite to get through two short series.

 

Let's just enjoy the regular season and not try to define this team's legacy by 5 or 12 or 19 games in October :)

[shnsajax]

Stone's proclamation doesn't increase the likelihood whatsoever in my opinion. He likes to guarantee a lot of things.

 

 

Let's see what June and July brings. If Lilly settles down and Hill returns, we might not have any interest in pitching. And if a bat gets hurt and/or somebody slows down, the lineup may be a more pressing need.

 

Then again, if Lou kills Marmol, Hendry might spend the deadline looking for relief help.

 

Even so I think we will want some more pitching simply for a playoff rotation. Then again if its not another #1b or #2 type starter, then there is really no point.

[erik316wttn]

Nice knowing you Felix.

If he nets us Sabathia, I will not miss him

 

Any Sabathia deal should hinge on him signing to an extention, otherwise he's not worth Pie.

 

I disagree enormously, considering Sabathia would make us the favorites to win the World Series.

 

But I don't want to clear out the farm (considering we'd have to send Hill, probably) for a rental. I'd want some long-term assurances.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I wouldn't mind a really good lefty reliever regardless of whether Marmol keeps it up or not.

 

Adding a shut-down lefty, pushing Eyre to second-lefty role, takes this bullpen from very good to historically good.

[jersey cubs fan]

I wouldn't mind a really good lefty reliever regardless of whether Marmol keeps it up or not.

 

Adding a shut-down lefty, pushing Eyre to second-lefty role, takes this bullpen from very good to historically good.

 

Of course nobody would mind having a shut down lefty. But there's no reason to actually go out and try to trade for one.

[Backtobanks]

Nice knowing you Felix.

If he nets us Sabathia, I will not miss him

 

Any Sabathia deal should hinge on him signing to an extention, otherwise he's not worth Pie.

 

I disagree enormously, considering Sabathia would make us the favorites to win the World Series.

 

But I don't want to clear out the farm (considering we'd have to send Hill, probably) for a rental. I'd want some long-term assurances.

 

I agree with you. I've been a fan for 54 years and I would love to see the Cubs win it all, but suggestions of giving up Pie and Hill for possibly a 2-month rental with no guarantee of winning the WS seems outrageous.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I agree with you. I've been a fan for 54 years and I would love to see the Cubs win it all, but suggestions of giving up Pie and Hill for possibly a 2-month rental with no guarantee of winning the WS seems outrageous.

 

Presumably we'd get at the very least a strong indication of signability before making the deal.

[Derwood]

how much money is Sabathia getting paid this year? if the Cubs take on all the remainder of the contract, they probably won't have to give up as much as you think

[Brett]

Nice knowing you Felix.

If he nets us Sabathia, I will not miss him

 

Any Sabathia deal should hinge on him signing to an extention, otherwise he's not worth Pie.

 

I disagree enormously, considering Sabathia would make us the favorites to win the World Series.

 

But I don't want to clear out the farm (considering we'd have to send Hill, probably) for a rental. I'd want some long-term assurances.

I'm generally opposed to expensive rentals, myself, but the team seems SO well built otherwise that it might just be the right year to do it.

[Chocolate Milk]

The playoffs are a crap shoot. You are boiling down a 162 game season to 5 or 7 game series. There is going to be a lot of varience there. I wouldn't look to much into past results.

 

Everyone was surprised that the Cubs got swept last year. Well, they got swept by the Marlins in the series a week before the playoffs started.

 

This Cubs team is very good. Barring injuries, they are going to be the clear favorites in the NL. That is being a realist.

 

That being said, I'd love to pick up a front line starter; as would basically everyone. It is, however, by no means necessary for playoff success.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Remember, if you don't extend Sabathia you get two high draft picks to replace Hill and Pie

[weatherdood]

Nice knowing you Felix.

If he nets us Sabathia, I will not miss him

 

Any Sabathia deal should hinge on him signing to an extention, otherwise he's not worth Pie.

 

I disagree enormously, considering Sabathia would make us the favorites to win the World Series.

 

Didn't Nomar make us the favorites to win the WS in 2004?

[Garwilly]

Nice knowing you Felix.

If he nets us Sabathia, I will not miss him

 

Any Sabathia deal should hinge on him signing to an extention, otherwise he's not worth Pie.

 

I disagree enormously, considering Sabathia would make us the favorites to win the World Series.

 

Didn't Nomar make us the favorites to win the WS in 2004?

 

Didn't John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, James Monroe, Andrew Jackson, and Richard Nixon all lose presidential elections before winning them?

[Jehrico]

I agree with you. I've been a fan for 54 years and I would love to see the Cubs win it all, but suggestions of giving up Pie and Hill for possibly a 2-month rental with no guarantee of winning the WS seems outrageous.

 

Presumably we'd get at the very least a strong indication of signability before making the deal.

I wouldn't worry about it, we've never lost a player that we traded for and we wanted to keep. The only player we've ever lost that we wanted to keep that I can think of is Maddux, and that was due to the biggest idiot in the history of all baseball running the negotiations, Larry Himes.

[NCCubFan]

Remember, if you don't extend Sabathia you get two high draft picks to replace Hill and Pie

Considering the recent track record of Cubs' high draft picks that may not be much of a consolation.