BP playoff odds report!

[TruffleShuffle]

never too early to start looking....

 

Through the end of may:

 

In the Monte Carlo simulation, the Cubs are 69.5% to win the division, 10.7% to win the wild card, for an 80.2% chance of making the playoffs. The Cubs have an average record of 94.2-67.8, which is 1.3 wins better than the Red Sox for the best record in baseball.

 

The Elo odds: 64% to win the division, 12.5% to win the wild card, for 76.5% to make the playoffs. Again, 1.3 wins better than the Red Sox, with an average record of 93.5-68.5.

 

PECOTA-simulated odds: 73.9% to win the division, 10.6% to win the wild card, 84.4% to make the playoffs. 95.6-66.4, or nearly 3 wins better than PECOTA's next-favorite team, the Yankees.

 

 

Since we're all becoming bandwagon Devil Ray fans as well:

Monte Carlo: 37.95480% division, 27.45680% wild card, 65.41161% playoffs (avg record 92.5-69.5)

Elo: 20.46138% division, 19.02389% wild card, 39.48527% playoffs (avg record 87.2-74.8)

PECOTA: 25.45384% division, 27.09392% wild card, 52.54776% playoffs (avg record 91-71)

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm a huge fan of those reports. They were the reason I maintained faith while many Cubs fans were bailing last season.

[inari]

Is it possible to get links to all of these?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Go to baseballprospectus.com and click on "statistics," you'll see a lot of useful stuff. I don't think you have to be a member to see them.

 

Team defensive efficiency, WRXL are some of my favorites.

[wvcbxl]

Is it possible to get links to all of these?

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

[Guest]

Is it possible to get links to all of these?

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

 

The first one that comes up really loves the A's.

[Vanilla Ice]

Yankees at 7%

[BigSlick]

I'm a huge fan of those reports. They were the reason I maintained faith while many Cubs fans were bailing last season.

I would check them every morning towards the end of September and there would always be like 10% swings and it would make me go insane.

[TruffleShuffle]

the cubs are basically right around 90% in all three of the projections... that is good.

[chuckywang]

How are the Indians one game behind the Twins and have a 9% higher chance of making the playoffs?

[bukie]

How are the Indians one game behind the Twins and have a 9% higher chance of making the playoffs?

 

Their 3rd degree win ratio is higher.

[woodchip2153]

Baseball Playoffs Now Blog

[third eye]

Baseball Playoffs Now Blog

 

 

Good stuff on divisional strength, and I also like their world series analytics/predictions :D

[TruffleShuffle]

they now have the cubs losing in 7 games to the red sox, which would be awful. they also dropped the cubs to #2, from what i can tell primarily because the NL had a bad weekend in intraleague play.

 

BP odds:

Monte Carlo: 82.6% division, 10.5% wild card, 93.1% overall

ELO-adjusted: 79.5% division, 13.1% wild card, 92.6% overall

PECOTA-adjusted: 89.1% division, 6.8% wild card, 95.9% overall

 

The Cards are 43.1% in the monte carlo version, 51.2% in the ELO and 32.1% PECOTA.

[OleMissCub]

 

The Cards are 43.1% in the monte carlo version, 51.2% in the ELO and 32.1% PECOTA.

 

The Cardinals at 43%? YUCK.

[BigSlick]

Cubs added a percent on their day off and are at 93.1% now.

 

The Cards are 43.1% in the monte carlo version, 51.2% in the ELO and 32.1% PECOTA.

 

The Cardinals at 43%? YUCK.

Frankly that seems low to me for the way they have played this season, and absurdly high in ELO since that should count preseason projections.

 

Who is going to challenge the Cardinals for the Wild Card? Certainly no one in the West...the Marlins in the East?

[TruffleShuffle]

Cubs added a percent on their day off and are at 93.1% now.

 

The Cards are 43.1% in the monte carlo version, 51.2% in the ELO and 32.1% PECOTA.

 

The Cardinals at 43%? YUCK.

Frankly that seems low to me for the way they have played this season, and absurdly high in ELO since that should count preseason projections.

 

Who is going to challenge the Cardinals for the Wild Card? Certainly no one in the West...the Marlins in the East?

 

according to the monte carlo simulation:

 

Braves: 28.8% for the playoffs (13.1% wild card) - remember, they've been victims of brutal luck in one-run games

Brewers: 16.4% for the playoffs (12.5% wild card)

Mets: 19.1% for the playoffs (9.1% wild card)

Marlins: 14.8% for the playoffs (7.2% wild card)

 

the west has about a 2% chance of winning the wild card.

[sneakypower]

they now have the cubs losing in 7 games to the red sox, which would be awful. they also dropped the cubs to #2, from what i can tell primarily because the NL had a bad weekend in intraleague play.

 

BP odds:

Monte Carlo: 82.6% division, 10.5% wild card, 93.1% overall

ELO-adjusted: 79.5% division, 13.1% wild card, 92.6% overall

PECOTA-adjusted: 89.1% division, 6.8% wild card, 95.9% overall

 

The Cards are 43.1% in the monte carlo version, 51.2% in the ELO and 32.1% PECOTA.

i'm going to take the under

 

it should be like 5%

[Hairyducked Idiot]

LOL at the consistent predicting of the Cardinals to fall apart, regardless of how many times it's been wrong this season.

 

We are *way* past the point where current record (even Pyth Record) has predictive value. They are more than likely at least an average team.

 

Cubs playoff odds:

 

Straight-up: 92.69398

ELO-adjusted: 92.01332

PECOTA-adjusted: 95.72416

[UMFan83]

So if the Cubs didn't make the playoffs, it would be among the bigger collapses in baseball history at this point already

[chuckywang]

LOL at the consistent predicting of the Cardinals to fall apart, regardless of how many times it's been wrong this season.

 

We are *way* past the point where current record (even Pyth Record) has predictive value. They are more than likely at least an average team.

 

Cubs playoff odds:

 

Straight-up: 92.69398

ELO-adjusted: 92.01332

PECOTA-adjusted: 95.72416

 

So you're saying there's a chance!

[Mute]

they now have the cubs losing in 7 games to the red sox, which would be awful. they also dropped the cubs to #2, from what i can tell primarily because the NL had a bad weekend in intraleague play.

 

BP odds:

Monte Carlo: 82.6% division, 10.5% wild card, 93.1% overall

ELO-adjusted: 79.5% division, 13.1% wild card, 92.6% overall

PECOTA-adjusted: 89.1% division, 6.8% wild card, 95.9% overall

 

The Cards are 43.1% in the monte carlo version, 51.2% in the ELO and 32.1% PECOTA.

i'm going to take the under

 

it should be like 5%

 

If they play .500 ball the rest of the way, which is obviously doable, they'll finish with 87-88 wins. You think the Marlins and the Phillies will both finish with more wins than that?

[TruffleShuffle]

guess who's a 96.1% shot to make the playoffs...

[sneakypower]

the Cardinals duh

[Outshined_One]

they now have the cubs losing in 7 games to the red sox, which would be awful. they also dropped the cubs to #2, from what i can tell primarily because the NL had a bad weekend in intraleague play.

 

BP odds:

Monte Carlo: 82.6% division, 10.5% wild card, 93.1% overall

ELO-adjusted: 79.5% division, 13.1% wild card, 92.6% overall

PECOTA-adjusted: 89.1% division, 6.8% wild card, 95.9% overall

 

The Cards are 43.1% in the monte carlo version, 51.2% in the ELO and 32.1% PECOTA.

i'm going to take the under

 

it should be like 5%

 

If they play .500 ball the rest of the way, which is obviously doable, they'll finish with 87-88 wins. You think the Marlins and the Phillies will both finish with more wins than that?

 

I think the Brewers have a better shot at getting 87-88 wins than the Cardinals do.