Lou Pinella, What the hell are you doing?

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeah, Lou has no idea what he's doing. Thats why they have the best record in baseball.

 

And round and round we go, this topic was addressed a long time ago in this thread.

 

Willie Randolph's team tied for the best record in MLB in '06. He is widely regarded as a buffoon. The other manager that had the best record that year was Joe Torre, who had a below 500 record before being blessed with managing the Yankees.

 

Art Howe in '02 tied for the best record in baseball (103 wins) Oakland allowed him to jump ship to the Mets, where the Mets were terrible for 2 years and Howe was fired.

 

Lou Piniella had the best record in '01. 2 years later he was beginning a pathetic stint as manager of the Devil Rays where he put up a .412 winning percentage.

 

The point in all this is that really bad teams are going to be bad regardless of the manager. Really good teams are going to be good regardless of the manager. Now to be fair, I think the work of Gerald Perry(who was brought aboard by Piniella) is a big reason the Cubs are a really good team. I just don't want to see this team suffer injuries late in the year, or lose home field advantage due to some dumb decisions due to Piniella's in-game managing.

[TruffleShuffle]

I don't see the big deal. Marmol hasn't pitched that much recently to begin with and the bases were loaded with no outs. Marquis gave up 3 straight hits and got nobody out, so taking him out seemed like a smart choice. Whenever Lou TRIES to give Carlos/Kerry a rest, the person he puts in proceeds to make a disaster of the inning. I don't recall who was on first, but a double could have made it a 3 run game. Lou defused the situation and a bases loaded no out situation turned into 1 run and inning over.

 

that's the thing - lou considers everything to be a disaster. after the bases became loaded, the blue jays' chance of winning the game was 7.1%. i'm well aware that marmol is the best pitcher in that spot, but lou seems to think that the only way to get out of that situation is to use marmol. pretty much any guy in the bullpen is likely to get out of that spot with the cubs still a heavy favorite to win the ballgame. sometimes you have to trust people other than your best pitcher to get outs.

[Cubs Fan In New York]

I don't see the big deal. Marmol hasn't pitched that much recently to begin with and the bases were loaded with no outs. Marquis gave up 3 straight hits and got nobody out, so taking him out seemed like a smart choice. Whenever Lou TRIES to give Carlos/Kerry a rest, the person he puts in proceeds to make a disaster of the inning. I don't recall who was on first, but a double could have made it a 3 run game. Lou defused the situation and a bases loaded no out situation turned into 1 run and inning over.

 

that's the thing - lou considers everything to be a disaster. after the bases became loaded, the blue jays' chance of winning the game was 7.1%. i'm well aware that marmol is the best pitcher in that spot, but lou seems to think that the only way to get out of that situation is to use marmol. pretty much any guy in the bullpen is likely to get out of that spot with the cubs still a heavy favorite to win the ballgame. sometimes you have to trust people other than your best pitcher to get outs.

 

The only problem with trusting the other pitchers is that they need to prove they can be trusted. Even the last couple of weeks Lou has tried to rest Marmol and then the pitchers he uses end up imploding, in which case he uses Marmol anyway. I'm not saying I always agree with using Marmol for every single sticky situation, but none of the other guys, other than Kerry and Scott, have proven they can do it. Besides, Lou has made mention he understands Marmol is being used alot so I'm sure Lou will do alot in the coming weeks to get Marmol some rest. Someone mentioned in the game thread that Carlos had only pitched 1 inning the last week.

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't see the big deal. Marmol hasn't pitched that much recently to begin with and the bases were loaded with no outs. Marquis gave up 3 straight hits and got nobody out, so taking him out seemed like a smart choice. Whenever Lou TRIES to give Carlos/Kerry a rest, the person he puts in proceeds to make a disaster of the inning. I don't recall who was on first, but a double could have made it a 3 run game. Lou defused the situation and a bases loaded no out situation turned into 1 run and inning over.

 

that's the thing - lou considers everything to be a disaster. after the bases became loaded, the blue jays' chance of winning the game was 7.1%. i'm well aware that marmol is the best pitcher in that spot, but lou seems to think that the only way to get out of that situation is to use marmol. pretty much any guy in the bullpen is likely to get out of that spot with the cubs still a heavy favorite to win the ballgame. sometimes you have to trust people other than your best pitcher to get outs.

 

The only problem with trusting the other pitchers is that they need to prove they can be trusted. Even the last couple of weeks Lou has tried to rest Marmol and then the pitchers he uses end up imploding, in which case he uses Marmol anyway. I'm not saying I always agree with using Marmol for every single sticky situation, but none of the other guys, other than Kerry and Scott, have proven they can do it.

 

Re-post from the game thread:

 

ERA+ of our bullpen guys(coming into today)

 

INF

INF

201

178

161

137

89

 

We have a very good bullpen. They've all proven they can do it.

[Cubs Fan In New York]

I don't see the big deal. Marmol hasn't pitched that much recently to begin with and the bases were loaded with no outs. Marquis gave up 3 straight hits and got nobody out, so taking him out seemed like a smart choice. Whenever Lou TRIES to give Carlos/Kerry a rest, the person he puts in proceeds to make a disaster of the inning. I don't recall who was on first, but a double could have made it a 3 run game. Lou defused the situation and a bases loaded no out situation turned into 1 run and inning over.

 

that's the thing - lou considers everything to be a disaster. after the bases became loaded, the blue jays' chance of winning the game was 7.1%. i'm well aware that marmol is the best pitcher in that spot, but lou seems to think that the only way to get out of that situation is to use marmol. pretty much any guy in the bullpen is likely to get out of that spot with the cubs still a heavy favorite to win the ballgame. sometimes you have to trust people other than your best pitcher to get outs.

 

The only problem with trusting the other pitchers is that they need to prove they can be trusted. Even the last couple of weeks Lou has tried to rest Marmol and then the pitchers he uses end up imploding, in which case he uses Marmol anyway. I'm not saying I always agree with using Marmol for every single sticky situation, but none of the other guys, other than Kerry and Scott, have proven they can do it.

 

Re-post from the game thread:

 

ERA+ of our bullpen guys(coming into today)

 

INF

INF

201

178

161

137

89

 

We have a very good bullpen. They've all proven they can do it.

 

Well, I'm sure eventually they'll be put into the situation and will show Lou that they can do it. Carlos has been used alot this season, but this last week he hasn't been and that's why I'm not too worked up about him pitching today.

[Keener98]

Yes the bases were loaded with nobody outs, but you know what happens if they hit a grand slam? We are still up 2 runs. Lou feels the need to bring Marmol in anytime a pressure situation arises, when since we were up 6 runs with 6 outs to go, there really is no reason to freak out. Marquis had only thrown 78 pitches today, and the number 9 hitter was coming up. Hes shown a good ability the last 2 outings to get double plays. Let him see what he can do against the 9 hitter, and go from there. Lou freaks out way to easy.

[Cubs Fan In New York]

Personally, I like the fact that he manages to win every single game. Sure we were up 6 and weren't in danger of losing at that point in time, but he wanted it over. I think he's smart enough to know when enough is enough in regards to Marmol so I think we'll have to wait and see. It's just silly when people freak out whenever Marmol comes in and then if Marmol doesn't come in and the other reliever gets into a jam, people freak out and ask what's wrong with Lou for not using Carlos.

[CubColtPacer]

Yes the bases were loaded with nobody outs, but you know what happens if they hit a grand slam? We are still up 2 runs. Lou feels the need to bring Marmol in anytime a pressure situation arises, when since we were up 6 runs with 6 outs to go, there really is no reason to freak out. Marquis had only thrown 78 pitches today, and the number 9 hitter was coming up. Hes shown a good ability the last 2 outings to get double plays. Let him see what he can do against the 9 hitter, and go from there. Lou freaks out way to easy.

 

It's a gamble either way. If you leave Marquis in, you will either use neither Marmol or Wood, or both of them. If Marquis gives up a hit to the 9 hitter, you likely end up using both. If he induces a double play, you don't really need to use either.

When you put Marmol in, you're using him, but you're giving a much better chance that you won't use Wood.

 

I can certainly understand the sentiment of wanting to give Marquis a chance to work out of his jam. It just depends on if you want to take the risk of having both pitch in order to potentially keep either one from pitching.

[SouthSideRyan]

It's just silly when people freak out whenever Marmol comes in and then if Marmol doesn't come in and the other reliever gets into a jam, people freak out and ask what's wrong with Lou for not using Carlos.

 

People keep saying this and it's not really true, I can't remember the last time I saw people freaking out because Lou wasn't using Marmol.

[CubColtPacer]

It's just silly when people freak out whenever Marmol comes in and then if Marmol doesn't come in and the other reliever gets into a jam, people freak out and ask what's wrong with Lou for not using Carlos.

 

People keep saying this and it's not really true, I can't remember the last time I saw people freaking out because Lou wasn't using Marmol.

 

People do it in the game thread quite a bit, but I haven't seen it outside of there so it's probably just a quick emotional reaction wanting to win that game.

[Cubs Fan In New York]

It's just silly when people freak out whenever Marmol comes in and then if Marmol doesn't come in and the other reliever gets into a jam, people freak out and ask what's wrong with Lou for not using Carlos.

 

People keep saying this and it's not really true, I can't remember the last time I saw people freaking out because Lou wasn't using Marmol.

 

People do it in the game thread quite a bit, but I haven't seen it outside of there so it's probably just a quick emotional reaction wanting to win that game.

 

Yea, that's where I've seen it.

[Illini Iceman]

Yes the bases were loaded with nobody outs, but you know what happens if they hit a grand slam? We are still up 2 runs. Lou feels the need to bring Marmol in anytime a pressure situation arises, when since we were up 6 runs with 6 outs to go, there really is no reason to freak out. Marquis had only thrown 78 pitches today, and the number 9 hitter was coming up. Hes shown a good ability the last 2 outings to get double plays. Let him see what he can do against the 9 hitter, and go from there. Lou freaks out way to easy.

 

It's a gamble either way. If you leave Marquis in, you will either use neither Marmol or Wood, or both of them. If Marquis gives up a hit to the 9 hitter, you likely end up using both. If he induces a double play, you don't really need to use either.

When you put Marmol in, you're using him, but you're giving a much better chance that you won't use Wood.

 

I can certainly understand the sentiment of wanting to give Marquis a chance to work out of his jam. It just depends on if you want to take the risk of having both pitch in order to potentially keep either one from pitching.

 

Marquis looked to me like he was done. If Piniella leaves him in and he gives up a bases clearing double the Jays are right back in the game. I like the idea of bringing in Marmol and slamming the door right there. The Cubs are on such a hot streak right now that they are needing to use Wood and Marmol a lot because they have a lot of late leads. I think the usage will come down either because they will cool off a bit so there won't be as many late inning opportunities for Marmol or if they actually stay this good will have a huge lead by September and not need to use him much down the stretch.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It's almost becoming cliche to freak out about Marmol's usage every time he comes into a game. Right now he's on pace for 10-12 innings this month, a significant drop from the previous two months. The only times he's been used in back to back games, he threw 8 pitches in each of the outings, then got 2 days off. The time to panic about Marmol's workload has not been the past couple weeks.

 

As far as the situation goes, CCP mentioned what many aren't considering. Bases loaded and no outs, there's a relatively significant chance of all 3 of those players scoring(a single between outfielders and a sac fly would do it). At that point it's a 3 run game, and you're definitely using Wood in the 9th, and it's probably leveraged enough to need/justify using Marmol to finish the 8th. Using Marmol to put out the fire means that Wood doesn't have to pitch. Now you have Wood to close out tomorrow, Eyre is probably good to go with a day off after 2 short outings, and Howry and Wuertz have long enough layoffs prior to their most recent outings to make them easily available too. It's easily defensible bullpen management, and probably the right move.

[BigSlick]

It's almost becoming cliche to freak out about Marmol's usage every time he comes into a game. Right now he's on pace for 10-12 innings this month, a significant drop from the previous two months. The only times he's been used in back to back games, he threw 8 pitches in each of the outings, then got 2 days off. The time to panic about Marmol's workload has not been the past couple weeks.

 

As far as the situation goes, CCP mentioned what many aren't considering. Bases loaded and no outs, there's a relatively significant chance of all 3 of those players scoring(a single between outfielders and a sac fly would do it). At that point it's a 3 run game, and you're definitely using Wood in the 9th, and it's probably leveraged enough to need/justify using Marmol to finish the 8th. Using Marmol to put out the fire means that Wood doesn't have to pitch. Now you have Wood to close out tomorrow, Eyre is probably good to go with a day off after 2 short outings, and Howry and Wuertz have long enough layoffs prior to their most recent outings to make them easily available too. It's easily defensible bullpen management, and probably the right move.

 

I overreacted in the game thread, its a defensible time use him, but I'm not so sure if I would have done it. What needs to be considered is if Lou will use Marmol in a sane a reasonable fashion from here on out, something I'm not so sure of. Lou seems to panic when someone else in the bullpen falters, and then use Marmol in scenarios where he isn't needed.

 

I'd like to hope that Lou's use of Marmol continues, but I don't know if it will. He very well could be using him like he did in April later in the season, pretty much every other day.

[hawkeyecub]

It's almost becoming cliche to freak out about Marmol's usage every time he comes into a game. Right now he's on pace for 10-12 innings this month, a significant drop from the previous two months. The only times he's been used in back to back games, he threw 8 pitches in each of the outings, then got 2 days off. The time to panic about Marmol's workload has not been the past couple weeks.

 

As far as the situation goes, CCP mentioned what many aren't considering. Bases loaded and no outs, there's a relatively significant chance of all 3 of those players scoring(a single between outfielders and a sac fly would do it). At that point it's a 3 run game, and you're definitely using Wood in the 9th, and it's probably leveraged enough to need/justify using Marmol to finish the 8th. Using Marmol to put out the fire means that Wood doesn't have to pitch. Now you have Wood to close out tomorrow, Eyre is probably good to go with a day off after 2 short outings, and Howry and Wuertz have long enough layoffs prior to their most recent outings to make them easily available too. It's easily defensible bullpen management, and probably the right move.

 

Excellent post.

[BigbadB]

I don't see the issue. What better time is there to bring in your shut down reliever than with the bases loaded with no outs late in the game?

 

I love how Lou makes moves to try to win every game. I also love how he has changed how he uses Marmol.

 

I have very little to complain about with how Lou is running this team.

[TruffleShuffle]

http://www.fangraphs.com/lgraphs/280615114_Cubs_BlueJays_83719604_lbig.png

 

if that's not a situation that calls for your best, most-used reliever, then i don't know what is.

[SouthSideRyan]

Lou, Marmol.

 

2nd verse same as the 1st.

[Cubs Fan In New York]

Today I'll agree. He shouldn't have been used in this game.

[hawkeyecub]

Yeah today really didn't make any sense.

[Choonch]

Bruce, on behalf of all of the fans, please ask Lou why he continues to go to Marmol anytime a reliever shows any signs of not having their best stuff (even if that's just a hit and a BB w/a 6 run lead). He has to look at the big picture here.

[RynoRules]

Question: Are we more concerned with appearences or no. of batters faced? For me its the later.

 

I didn't think Marmol should have come in today, but his stay was short, and as TT mentioned, he is on pace for fewer innings this month than in prior months. On the other hand, every time he even warms up you have to consider that part of "using up" his arm.

[Vanilla Ice]

Looking at strictly batting average isn't really the best way go about it, but Zambrano is a career .234 hitter(.241 OBP) that hit .247(.247 OBP) last year and .151(.160 OBP) the year before.

As pointed out with Edmonds, career batting average is not indicative of what kind of hitter Zambrano is today. And where Edmonds is in a down trend at the end of his career, Zambrano is in an up trend in the prime of his career.... Going by the stats you posted, Zambrano raised his average .100 in 07 from 06, and as of now he's raised his average another .100 in 08 from 07.... Again, in an uptrend, he's hitting right around .290 the last two seasons.

just think guys

 

in a few years hell be batting like .700

[Schwarber Fan]

Micah Hoffpauir hitting when Jim Edmonds should have

 

That was the biggest reason the game wasn't in extras last night.

 

Johnson trying to swipe third and Neal Cotts being Neal Cotts didn't help, but I put that one on Lou.

[CubColtPacer]

Micah Hoffpauir hitting when Jim Edmonds should have

 

That was the biggest reason the game wasn't in extras last night.

 

Johnson trying to swipe third and Neal Cotts being Neal Cotts didn't help, but I put that one on Lou.

 

 

Hoffpauir batting was the right move. There were runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out. If you bat Edmonds, the Rays probably walk him intentionally and set up the double play. Now you have Hoffpauir and Johnson to try to win the game for you.

 

If you send Hoffpauir up there first, the Rays probably pitch to him. If they walk him, you're fine with that also. But even if Hoffpauir gets out, they aren't going to intentionally walk Edmonds with 2 outs.

 

I thought it was a good piece of managing to make sure our best hitter left didn't have the bat taken out of his hands.