Why can't the Cubs develope position players?

[MADD_DOG_31]

When you look at the good young players that have came up and stuck in the league the last few years they almost all have had a good start and continued.

 

Pedroia hit 182/308/236 in the month of April last year.

 

Chris Young through May 3rd: .202 .255 .383

 

Tulowitzki through April 25th: .185 .274 .246

 

Josh Fields through 23 games: .218 .274 .333

 

Each of these guys had cups of coffees (~80 PAS)the year before and were bad then as well.

 

That's just from guys who got rookie of the year votes last year. The only ones to start well were Braun, Delmon Young, and Reggie Willits.

 

I'm not saying Pie won't ever be any good, but let him play in the minors and get a clue at the plate.

 

Pie hit .362 .410 .563 in AAA last year. I'd say he has a clue.

 

Are you telling me he has nothing left to work on at the plate? That is just ridiculous...the massive holes in his long swing are glaring and nevermind the fact he doesnt have a good idea of the strike zone at all

 

He is talented but still very raw.....he knows what he needs to work on now, and if he doesnt he probably wont ever stick up here

[MADD_DOG_31]

I'm not totally convinced the Cubs don't give the guys a chance to prove themselves in the major leagues. You can't leave a player in the lineup everyday that is hurting the team. There is still competition in baseball and you have to prove yourself. It has to make Lou sick to put Pie in the lineup right now, hes an automatic out. You have to play the best player in the present and develope guys in the minor leagues. when they get their shot at the majors they better make a splash or they are headed back. When you look at the good young players that have came up and stuck in the league the last few years they almost all have had a good start and continued. I'm not saying Pie won't ever be any good, but let him play in the minors and get a clue at the plate. He now knows what he needs to fix to make him better at the major league level. If Soto would have hit .220 when he came up last year and continued it thru the spring, he wouldnt be playing right now, but hes earned his job. Handing guys jobs is just not the way to do it. If Pie goes back to Iowa for a while, I believe he will come back a better player and if he doesnt he knows right back where he will be....putting pressure on guys and making them earn it is not a bad thing at all.

 

Just my .02

 

Completely self-defeating thinking. If a prospect isn't an immediate success in the majors, they can't play? This seems like exactly the kind of detrimental mentality that has helped the Cubs not develop more players internaly.

 

They havent developed any good players because they havent had any players with enuf talent to develope into major league players....its not like these guys are going to another team and becoming great either

[rawaction]

When you look at the good young players that have came up and stuck in the league the last few years they almost all have had a good start and continued.

 

Pedroia hit 182/308/236 in the month of April last year.

 

Chris Young through May 3rd: .202 .255 .383

 

Tulowitzki through April 25th: .185 .274 .246

 

Josh Fields through 23 games: .218 .274 .333

 

Each of these guys had cups of coffees (~80 PAS)the year before and were bad then as well.

 

That's just from guys who got rookie of the year votes last year. The only ones to start well were Braun, Delmon Young, and Reggie Willits.

 

I'm not saying Pie won't ever be any good, but let him play in the minors and get a clue at the plate.

 

Pie hit .362 .410 .563 in AAA last year. I'd say he has a clue.

 

Are you telling me he has nothing left to work on at the plate? That is just ridiculous...the massive holes in his long swing are glaring and nevermind the fact he doesnt have a good idea of the strike zone at all

 

He is talented but still very raw.....he knows what he needs to work on now, and if he doesnt he probably wont ever stick up here

 

Where do you think Pie has a better chance of getting the coaching he needs to work on those things? In Iowa with minor league hitting coaches or in Chicago with Gerald Perry and Alan Trammell on the coaching staff? I could see if he had mediocre success or minimal time in AAA. But he has hit .306/.362/.484 in nearly 800 ABs in Iowa.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I think it's ridiculous to assume a player will come up and hit off the bat and if he doesn't, then he should be sent back down.

 

Pie has had 26 AB. In total for his major league career, he's had 97 AB and put up a dismal 207 /260/310 line.

 

In comparison, Kenny Lofton when he was a year older than Pie came up for 74 AB and put up a 203/253/216 line even worse than Pie.

 

There are other players that have similar starts to their careers. It's just that by the time those players become all-stars their early struggles are forgotten.

[SouthSideRyan]

You won't find many bigger Von Joshua fans around here than me. But what exactly do you tell a guy as a hitting coach while he's stroking the ball to a line of a 900+ OPS? Get that average up over 400? Hit 35 HRs?(Nah, strike that, then he'd be just another Corey Patterson, black CFs should just slap the ball)

[NewUserName]

I think that sometimes Good is the biggest enemy of Great. In a rush to be good now, The Cubs dont take the time to let younger players be great. It is more important that we win as many games now with Reed Johnson type players. I dont mean this as a Reed Johnson bash but he clearly is not ever going to be a great player. Pie may or may not become a great player. The one thing I know for certain is he will not get great on the bench or back in AAA.

[bcl412]

When you look at the good young players that have came up and stuck in the league the last few years they almost all have had a good start and continued.

 

Pedroia hit 182/308/236 in the month of April last year.

 

Chris Young through May 3rd: .202 .255 .383

 

Tulowitzki through April 25th: .185 .274 .246

 

Josh Fields through 23 games: .218 .274 .333

 

Each of these guys had cups of coffees (~80 PAS)the year before and were bad then as well.

 

That's just from guys who got rookie of the year votes last year. The only ones to start well were Braun, Delmon Young, and Reggie Willits.

 

I'm not saying Pie won't ever be any good, but let him play in the minors and get a clue at the plate.

 

Pie hit .362 .410 .563 in AAA last year. I'd say he has a clue.

 

Are you telling me he has nothing left to work on at the plate? That is just ridiculous...the massive holes in his long swing are glaring and nevermind the fact he doesnt have a good idea of the strike zone at all

 

He is talented but still very raw.....he knows what he needs to work on now, and if he doesnt he probably wont ever stick up here

 

Where do you think Pie has a better chance of getting the coaching he needs to work on those things? In Iowa with minor league hitting coaches or in Chicago with Gerald Perry and Alan Trammell on the coaching staff? I could see if he had mediocre success or minimal time in AAA. But he has hit .306/.362/.484 in nearly 800 ABs in Iowa.

 

You can't expect your rookie players to just come in and be great. Compare it to other sports. How many NBA players come out of college (pretty much the NBA's and NFL's minor leagues) and just tear up the league. Same with the NFL, there is a certain period of adjustment that a player needs to make in order to play at the top level of competition in every sport. Yeah there are players who do really well right off the bat, but not that many. That's why the people who do really well off the bat are famous.

[brinoch]

When you look at the good young players that have came up and stuck in the league the last few years they almost all have had a good start and continued.

 

Pedroia hit 182/308/236 in the month of April last year.

 

Chris Young through May 3rd: .202 .255 .383

 

Tulowitzki through April 25th: .185 .274 .246

 

Josh Fields through 23 games: .218 .274 .333

 

Each of these guys had cups of coffees (~80 PAS)the year before and were bad then as well.

 

That's just from guys who got rookie of the year votes last year. The only ones to start well were Braun, Delmon Young, and Reggie Willits.

 

I'm not saying Pie won't ever be any good, but let him play in the minors and get a clue at the plate.

 

Pie hit .362 .410 .563 in AAA last year. I'd say he has a clue.

 

Are you telling me he has nothing left to work on at the plate? That is just ridiculous...the massive holes in his long swing are glaring and nevermind the fact he doesnt have a good idea of the strike zone at all

 

He is talented but still very raw.....he knows what he needs to work on now, and if he doesnt he probably wont ever stick up here

 

You've made a completely ridiculous straw man argument in the part of your post here. Of course Pie needs work -- everyone knows that. SSR never says that Pie doesn't need work -- just that he has a clue about AAA pitching (which Pie dominated). What SSR is doing here is demonstrating that other players have struggled just like Pie is doing now.

 

Yes, Pie needs to shorten his swing, identify pitches better, and learn the strike zone. So did every other player who has made it in baseball. Not everyone can hit like Albert Pujols or Ryan Braun their first day in the big leagues -- that kind of immediate success is extremely rare. More common are early struggles followed by increasing success as young players learn. And they learn by playing, not watching.

[Jehrico]

When you look at the good young players that have came up and stuck in the league the last few years they almost all have had a good start and continued.

 

Pedroia hit 182/308/236 in the month of April last year.

 

Chris Young through May 3rd: .202 .255 .383

 

Tulowitzki through April 25th: .185 .274 .246

 

Josh Fields through 23 games: .218 .274 .333

 

Each of these guys had cups of coffees (~80 PAS)the year before and were bad then as well.

 

That's just from guys who got rookie of the year votes last year. The only ones to start well were Braun, Delmon Young, and Reggie Willits.

 

I'm not saying Pie won't ever be any good, but let him play in the minors and get a clue at the plate.

 

Pie hit .362 .410 .563 in AAA last year. I'd say he has a clue.

 

Are you telling me he has nothing left to work on at the plate? That is just ridiculous...the massive holes in his long swing are glaring and nevermind the fact he doesnt have a good idea of the strike zone at all

 

He is talented but still very raw.....he knows what he needs to work on now, and if he doesnt he probably wont ever stick up here

 

Where do you think Pie has a better chance of getting the coaching he needs to work on those things? In Iowa with minor league hitting coaches or in Chicago with Gerald Perry and Alan Trammell on the coaching staff? I could see if he had mediocre success or minimal time in AAA. But he has hit .306/.362/.484 in nearly 800 ABs in Iowa.

 

You can't expect your rookie players to just come in and be great. Compare it to other sports. How many NBA players come out of college (pretty much the NBA's and NFL's minor leagues) and just tear up the league. Same with the NFL, there is a certain period of adjustment that a player needs to make in order to play at the top level of competition in every sport. Yeah there are players who do really well right off the bat, but not that many. That's why the people who do really well off the bat are famous.

Sammy had OPS+ under 100 his first four years tasting the majors, including an OPS+ of 59 in 300+ ABs for the Chisox the year before we got him. (Fun fact: Sammy actually got MVP votes in '97 with an OPS+ under 100). After Sandberg put up an OPS+ of 90 in 1982 with over 600 ab, then put up a worse OPS+ the next year of 82 in 1983, again while getting over 600 ab (in other words, he was healthy, got every chance and wasn't jerked around). Then he suddenly broke out in '84 with an OPS+ of 140. ARod got his second tase of the majors in '95 with over 150 ab, and put up an OPS+ of 72. Sometimes (more like oftentimes) guys just need the time to take some lumps and get over the learning curve.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

(Fun fact: Sammy actually got MVP votes in '97 with an OPS+ under 100).

 

I think I still have the Sports Illustrated that called it the worst 30-HR, 100 RBI season in history.

[Hacking Out Machine]

I think the reason the Cubs have had such trouble coming up with good position players is due to their bass-ackward tendencies in the draft throughout the Hendry era, and what "skills" they value the most in their acquisition of players as a whole. This is especially true in the early rounds of the June draft, where most of the "top" talent resides. The Cubs have generally gravitated to players who can be described as "athletic" types. It's almost as if they are looking for players with more aggressive, hacking type approaches who have raw athletic talent. This is true with Montanez, Harvey, Dopirak, Colvin, Vitters, and probably many others. Even in the later rounds, OBP and SLG have not been priorities as the Cubs in a lot of cases have also gravitated toward "grinder/red-ass" types, i.e., the Joe Simokaitises of the world. Very seldom have you seen the Cubs draft any guys whose primary skill was high OBP or SLG.(Tony Thomas from last year was a welcome exception).

 

My contention is that it's difficult to develop players when the players you draft have skills that don't necessarily make them good baseball players. It's more about the Cubs origanizational philosophy being suspect.

[RegulusBlue]

Because when we need a backup LF to replace Soriano, we yank a dude out of his natural position in Patterson and effing leave Murton in AAA.

 

Jim Hendry is a denizen of evil.

[CyHawk_Cub]

My theory: Hendry & MacPhail mistakenly thought that a rule change would be made under which a team would be required to throw 9 pitchers on the field; position players were to be banished....

 

 

 

 

Like I said, it's just a theory...there might be a few small holes in it.

[ralphwiggum774]

My personal $0.02 is that it this long drought of developing position players was brought about by front office philosophy. For the longest time, the Cubs organization was governed by old-school baseball thought. Their drafts emphasized power for position players above everything else (think - Ryan Harvey). Thankfully over the last 2 years the Cubs have actually become more statistically oriented in their draft (although not even to be considered a sabermetric team).

 

I think their 2007 draft was the begining. Take a look at their first 10 draft picks with their walk rate per plate appearance:

1. HS Vitters, 3B (n/a)

1. COL Donaldson, C (15%!)

3. COL Thomas, 2B (14%)

4. COL Barney, SS (11%)

5. COL Guyer, OF (8%)

6. Pitcher

7. COL Wright, OF (8%)

8. COL Smith, 3B (11%)

9. COL Hardman, OF (4%)

10. COL Johnson, OF (11%)

 

There's only 1 pitcher in the top ten picks and only 1 high school bat! 8 polished college bats were taken and most of them had nice walk rates. Baseballprospectus called this the TTNSTAAPP draft. (There is no such thing as a pitching prospect draft.)

 

In truth, the Cubs are learning. Polished college bats are available and it is inexcusable for a team to not develop position players today since their outcomes are so much easier to predict than pitchers.

 

It's fun (and painful) to look in retrospect what the Cubs failures include in the drafts:

 

2003 - with the 6th overall pick, our beloved organization chose Ryan Harvey who was predicted to have 40HR power in his peak if he could learn not to strikeout and take a walk - something alien to him. Today he has not learned to solve this problem and contrinues to strike out in 33% of his at bats and walk in less than 4% of his plate appearances. (In fairness to him, he is off to an OK start in AA.) Taken next was the great Nick Markakis, a junior college player who had demolished the competition at a higher level and who was known to have a patient eye and controlled bat to limit strikeouts and still hit 30HRs a year in his peak. I believe Ryan Harvey signed for $4 million while Markakis signed for less than half that.

 

2004 - N/A

 

2005 - the greatest draft in recent memory. Our wondrous organization selected HS LHP Mark Pawelek as the 20th pick ahead of Jacoby Ellsbury, Colby Rasmus, Travis Buck, Jed Lowrie, Chase Headley, and Yunel Escobar among other players who are raking in AA and AAA right now. Pawelek has played for 3 seasons now in rookie ball and short season ball and the highest he has ever gotten is low A ball where he pitched only 4 innings.

 

2006 - not a bad idea to take a proven college player in Tyler Colvin. Not a bad pick at all considering he is a superior defender, bats lefty, shows good power, was a full year younger than most juniors in college, and had a low strikeout rate. The bad was that he had a low walk rate. He won't be ready to contribute until late 2009 or 2010 if he can pass the AA test this year. Maybe his projection looks like .275/.325/.475. He won't take a walk but that line isn't bad at all for a CF. Although he may have a long growth curve before he gets to that level because his worth is completely determined by his batting average which can be influenced by luck and dips in the majors because of better defenders. A player who might turn out to be better than Colvin was received from the San Diego Padres and he was drafted in the supplemental first round - Kyler Burke. A lefty OF with power and a beautiful walk rate. He is 20-years old and in low A right now. A big sleeper. He can be big but he's the kind of player the Cubs need.

 

I'm very excited to see the 2008 Cubs draft. I believe they have an extra pick because of Jason Kendall's loss to the Brewers. Their 2007 draft showed a mixture of sabermetrics (all those polished and college bats early, trading for Burke from SD) and traditional scouting (Vitters). The Cubs seem to be improving their game, slowly albeit improving.

[CoolHandLuke]

excellent first post! =D>

[Soul]

Actually yeah, it was. GJ ralph

[KingCubsFan]

My personal $0.02 is that it this long drought of developing position players was brought about by front office philosophy. For the longest time, the Cubs organization was governed by old-school baseball thought. Their drafts emphasized power for position players above everything else (think - Ryan Harvey). Thankfully over the last 2 years the Cubs have actually become more statistically oriented in their draft (although not even to be considered a sabermetric team).

 

I think their 2007 draft was the begining. Take a look at their first 10 draft picks with their walk rate per plate appearance:

1. HS Vitters, 3B (n/a)

1. COL Donaldson, C (15%!)

3. COL Thomas, 2B (14%)

4. COL Barney, SS (11%)

5. COL Guyer, OF (8%)

6. Pitcher

7. COL Wright, OF (8%)

8. COL Smith, 3B (11%)

9. COL Hardman, OF (4%)

10. COL Johnson, OF (11%)

 

There's only 1 pitcher in the top ten picks and only 1 high school bat! 8 polished college bats were taken and most of them had nice walk rates. Baseballprospectus called this the TTNSTAAPP draft. (There is no such thing as a pitching prospect draft.)

 

In truth, the Cubs are learning. Polished college bats are available and it is inexcusable for a team to not develop position players today since their outcomes are so much easier to predict than pitchers.

 

It's fun (and painful) to look in retrospect what the Cubs failures include in the drafts:

 

2003 - with the 6th overall pick, our beloved organization chose Ryan Harvey who was predicted to have 40HR power in his peak if he could learn not to strikeout and take a walk - something alien to him. Today he has not learned to solve this problem and contrinues to strike out in 33% of his at bats and walk in less than 4% of his plate appearances. (In fairness to him, he is off to an OK start in AA.) Taken next was the great Nick Markakis, a junior college player who had demolished the competition at a higher level and who was known to have a patient eye and controlled bat to limit strikeouts and still hit 30HRs a year in his peak. I believe Ryan Harvey signed for $4 million while Markakis signed for less than half that.

 

2004 - N/A

 

2005 - the greatest draft in recent memory. Our wondrous organization selected HS LHP Mark Pawelek as the 20th pick ahead of Jacoby Ellsbury, Colby Rasmus, Travis Buck, Jed Lowrie, Chase Headley, and Yunel Escobar among other players who are raking in AA and AAA right now. Pawelek has played for 3 seasons now in rookie ball and short season ball and the highest he has ever gotten is low A ball where he pitched only 4 innings.

 

2006 - not a bad idea to take a proven college player in Tyler Colvin. Not a bad pick at all considering he is a superior defender, bats lefty, shows good power, was a full year younger than most juniors in college, and had a low strikeout rate. The bad was that he had a low walk rate. He won't be ready to contribute until late 2009 or 2010 if he can pass the AA test this year. Maybe his projection looks like .275/.325/.475. He won't take a walk but that line isn't bad at all for a CF. Although he may have a long growth curve before he gets to that level because his worth is completely determined by his batting average which can be influenced by luck and dips in the majors because of better defenders. A player who might turn out to be better than Colvin was received from the San Diego Padres and he was drafted in the supplemental first round - Kyler Burke. A lefty OF with power and a beautiful walk rate. He is 20-years old and in low A right now. A big sleeper. He can be big but he's the kind of player the Cubs need.

 

I'm very excited to see the 2008 Cubs draft. I believe they have an extra pick because of Jason Kendall's loss to the Brewers. Their 2007 draft showed a mixture of sabermetrics (all those polished and college bats early, trading for Burke from SD) and traditional scouting (Vitters). The Cubs seem to be improving their game, slowly albeit improving.

 

It's also important that the man running the draft now has a track-record of success and is a very good scout. The man before him was terrible. And before Stocksill, Jim Hendry certainly didn't have a Moneyball draft philosophy (which you're clearly advocating), but at the same time had good drafts.

[Amazing_Grace]

My personal $0.02 is that it this long drought of developing position players was brought about by front office philosophy. For the longest time, the Cubs organization was governed by old-school baseball thought. Their drafts emphasized power for position players above everything else (think - Ryan Harvey). Thankfully over the last 2 years the Cubs have actually become more statistically oriented in their draft (although not even to be considered a sabermetric team).

 

I think their 2007 draft was the begining. Take a look at their first 10 draft picks with their walk rate per plate appearance:

1. HS Vitters, 3B (n/a)

1. COL Donaldson, C (15%!)

3. COL Thomas, 2B (14%)

4. COL Barney, SS (11%)

5. COL Guyer, OF (8%)

6. Pitcher

7. COL Wright, OF (8%)

8. COL Smith, 3B (11%)

9. COL Hardman, OF (4%)

10. COL Johnson, OF (11%)

 

There's only 1 pitcher in the top ten picks and only 1 high school bat! 8 polished college bats were taken and most of them had nice walk rates. Baseballprospectus called this the TTNSTAAPP draft. (There is no such thing as a pitching prospect draft.)

 

In truth, the Cubs are learning. Polished college bats are available and it is inexcusable for a team to not develop position players today since their outcomes are so much easier to predict than pitchers.

 

It's fun (and painful) to look in retrospect what the Cubs failures include in the drafts:

 

2003 - with the 6th overall pick, our beloved organization chose Ryan Harvey who was predicted to have 40HR power in his peak if he could learn not to strikeout and take a walk - something alien to him. Today he has not learned to solve this problem and contrinues to strike out in 33% of his at bats and walk in less than 4% of his plate appearances. (In fairness to him, he is off to an OK start in AA.) Taken next was the great Nick Markakis, a junior college player who had demolished the competition at a higher level and who was known to have a patient eye and controlled bat to limit strikeouts and still hit 30HRs a year in his peak. I believe Ryan Harvey signed for $4 million while Markakis signed for less than half that.

 

2004 - N/A

 

2005 - the greatest draft in recent memory. Our wondrous organization selected HS LHP Mark Pawelek as the 20th pick ahead of Jacoby Ellsbury, Colby Rasmus, Travis Buck, Jed Lowrie, Chase Headley, and Yunel Escobar among other players who are raking in AA and AAA right now. Pawelek has played for 3 seasons now in rookie ball and short season ball and the highest he has ever gotten is low A ball where he pitched only 4 innings.

 

2006 - not a bad idea to take a proven college player in Tyler Colvin. Not a bad pick at all considering he is a superior defender, bats lefty, shows good power, was a full year younger than most juniors in college, and had a low strikeout rate. The bad was that he had a low walk rate. He won't be ready to contribute until late 2009 or 2010 if he can pass the AA test this year. Maybe his projection looks like .275/.325/.475. He won't take a walk but that line isn't bad at all for a CF. Although he may have a long growth curve before he gets to that level because his worth is completely determined by his batting average which can be influenced by luck and dips in the majors because of better defenders. A player who might turn out to be better than Colvin was received from the San Diego Padres and he was drafted in the supplemental first round - Kyler Burke. A lefty OF with power and a beautiful walk rate. He is 20-years old and in low A right now. A big sleeper. He can be big but he's the kind of player the Cubs need.

 

I'm very excited to see the 2008 Cubs draft. I believe they have an extra pick because of Jason Kendall's loss to the Brewers. Their 2007 draft showed a mixture of sabermetrics (all those polished and college bats early, trading for Burke from SD) and traditional scouting (Vitters). The Cubs seem to be improving their game, slowly albeit improving.

 

Excellent post, this is exactly what I was thinking. The Cubs don't develop position players because they still are rating them based on "tools" instead of stats. Tools mean nothing in the major leagues if you can't put up the numbers.

 

Also, thx Cusecubfan for answering my Borowski question.

[Hacking Out Machine]

I think the reason the Cubs have had such trouble coming up with good position players is due to their bass-ackward tendencies in the draft throughout the Hendry era, and what "skills" they value the most in their acquisition of players as a whole. This is especially true in the early rounds of the June draft, where most of the "top" talent resides. The Cubs have generally gravitated to players who can be described as "athletic" types. It's almost as if they are looking for players with more aggressive, hacking type approaches who have raw athletic talent. This is true with Montanez, Harvey, Dopirak, Colvin, Vitters, and probably many others. Even in the later rounds, OBP and SLG have not been priorities as the Cubs in a lot of cases have also gravitated toward "grinder/red-ass" types, i.e., the Joe Simokaitises of the world. Very seldom have you seen the Cubs draft any guys whose primary skill was high OBP or SLG.(Tony Thomas from last year was a welcome exception).

 

My contention is that it's difficult to develop players when the players you draft have skills that don't necessarily make them good baseball players. It's more about the Cubs origanizational philosophy being suspect.

 

 

Ralphwiggum,

 

First of all, great name and avatar, and fantastic first post. As you can see from above, I agree with you wholeheartedly, and thanks for articulating it very well.