The 2008 BA Prospect Hot Sheet Thread

[Guest]

June 3, 2008:

 

Special season-to-date hot sheet because they won't have one on Friday like normal due to the draft. Only one Cub made it:

 

NOT HOT:

 

• Jeff Samardzija, rhp, Double-A Tennessee. Samardzija signed a five-year major league contract with the Cubs worth $10 million in 2006 to give up a potential NFL career and ranked 80th in our Top 100 prospects entering 2007. But not much has gone well for Samardzija this season. The 6-foot-5 former Notre Dame football star has nearly as many walks (33) as strikeouts (37) in 60 2/3 innings, good for a 5.34 ERA. Samardzija is still a relatively unique talent, a raw 23-year-old college player with a fastball that has touched the high-90s, but the signs of progress have yet to catch up with his talent.

 

I guess we should be happy Donaldson didn't make the not hot list. This system sucks. :(

[craig]

Samardz has gone 9K/1walk/5 hits/0.5 WHIP over his last two starts/12 innings. So the "not hot" is actually a bit behind. If he puts up another couple starts like that, maybe he'll show back on their "hot" sheet by the next time they post one!

[jersey cubs fan]

Samardz has gone 9K/1walk/5 hits/0.5 WHIP over his last two starts/12 innings. So the "not hot" is actually a bit behind. If he puts up another couple starts like that, maybe he'll show back on their "hot" sheet by the next time they post one!

 

Considering it's a season-to-date list, I think they were safe keeping him there regardless of the most recent 12-innings.

[Guest]

Q: Geovany Soto from Chicago asks:

Do I have any chance at NL ROY now that Jay Bruce has arrived?

 

A: Ben Badler: Yes, because you're in the midst of (and yes, I know it's early) one of the greatest seasons by a rookie catcher ever.

 

Q: Navin from Pasadena, CA asks:

How bad is the Cubs system now with Soto and Gallagher gone and guys like Colvin, Donaldson and Samardzija struggling?

 

A: Ben Badler: It's safe to say it's been a disappointing year for the Cubs farm system. On the bright side, Tony Thomas is starting to turn things around, Dae-Eun Rhee is off the DL, and they just signed a nice-looking 17-year-old shortstop from the Pacific Rim.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/chat.php?id=2008060301&rnd=17

[Brett]

Two nice starts from Samardzija is encouraging, I guess. Really digging deep for things to be pleased about.

[Guest]

Still no Cubs have cracked the actual BA hot sheet this year (ouch) but Jeff Samardzija becomes the third Cub to crack the team photo or helium watch.

 

BA Prospect Hot Sheet 7/11/2008[/url]"]IN THE TEAM PHOTO

 

It defies explanation, but Triple-A Iowa RHP Jeff Samardzija (Cubs) has performed much better in the Pacific Coast League—through four starts—than he did at any point in Double-A this season. In two starts this week, the 23-year-old, fifth-round pick (2006) out of Notre Dame went 2-0, 4.12 in 13 1/3 innings, and struck out 13, walked three and gave up 15 hits and three home runs. Samardzija kept the ball on the ground, generating 17 groundball outs and 10 fly outs. Hey, it's a start...

[Ryno is God 23]

Still no Cubs have cracked the actual BA hot sheet this year (ouch) but Jeff Samardzija becomes the third Cub to crack the team photo or helium watch.

 

I would guess Vitters will end that streak sometime soon.

[imb]

Hey, if I told you that there was a prospect in someone else's system that was a raw, college guy who had good, projectable stuff and was having more success at AAA than he had at any other level and at times looked pretty legit... there'd be reason for cautious optimism.

[jersey cubs fan]

Hey, if I told you that there was a prospect in someone else's system that was a raw, college guy who had good, projectable stuff and was having more success at AAA than he had at any other level and at times looked pretty legit... there'd be reason for cautious optimism.

 

very true

[CubinNY]

Still no Cubs have cracked the actual BA hot sheet this year (ouch) but Jeff Samardzija becomes the third Cub to crack the team photo or helium watch.

 

BA Prospect Hot Sheet 7/11/2008[/url]"]IN THE TEAM PHOTO

 

It defies explanation, but Triple-A Iowa RHP Jeff Samardzija (Cubs) has performed much better in the Pacific Coast League—through four starts—than he did at any point in Double-A this season. In two starts this week, the 23-year-old, fifth-round pick (2006) out of Notre Dame went 2-0, 4.12 in 13 1/3 innings, and struck out 13, walked three and gave up 15 hits and three home runs. Samardzija kept the ball on the ground, generating 17 groundball outs and 10 fly outs. Hey, it's a start...

Isn't AAA filled with retreads and guys wanting to be a coach or manager some day? I mean isn't there more talent in AA (albeit younger)?

[rawaction]

Still no Cubs have cracked the actual BA hot sheet this year (ouch) but Jeff Samardzija becomes the third Cub to crack the team photo or helium watch.

 

BA Prospect Hot Sheet 7/11/2008[/url]"]IN THE TEAM PHOTO

 

It defies explanation, but Triple-A Iowa RHP Jeff Samardzija (Cubs) has performed much better in the Pacific Coast League—through four starts—than he did at any point in Double-A this season. In two starts this week, the 23-year-old, fifth-round pick (2006) out of Notre Dame went 2-0, 4.12 in 13 1/3 innings, and struck out 13, walked three and gave up 15 hits and three home runs. Samardzija kept the ball on the ground, generating 17 groundball outs and 10 fly outs. Hey, it's a start...

Isn't AAA filled with retreads and guys wanting to be a coach or manager some day? I mean isn't there more talent in AA (albeit younger)?

 

AA definitely has more talent. But it's not like AAA is devoid of talent. Only the truly elite prospects skip AAA. Plus, you have to take into account the Southern League (AA league Samardzija played in) has some national forest like parks and the Pacific Coast League has bandboxes in high altitudes.

[CubinNY]

Still no Cubs have cracked the actual BA hot sheet this year (ouch) but Jeff Samardzija becomes the third Cub to crack the team photo or helium watch.

 

BA Prospect Hot Sheet 7/11/2008[/url]"]IN THE TEAM PHOTO

 

It defies explanation, but Triple-A Iowa RHP Jeff Samardzija (Cubs) has performed much better in the Pacific Coast League—through four starts—than he did at any point in Double-A this season. In two starts this week, the 23-year-old, fifth-round pick (2006) out of Notre Dame went 2-0, 4.12 in 13 1/3 innings, and struck out 13, walked three and gave up 15 hits and three home runs. Samardzija kept the ball on the ground, generating 17 groundball outs and 10 fly outs. Hey, it's a start...

Isn't AAA filled with retreads and guys wanting to be a coach or manager some day? I mean isn't there more talent in AA (albeit younger)?

 

AA definitely has more talent. But it's not like AAA is devoid of talent. Only the truly elite prospects skip AAA. Plus, you have to take into account the Southern League (AA league Samardzija played in) has some national forest like parks and the Pacific Coast League has bandboxes in high altitudes.

Thanks. I'm happy The Shark is doing well and it is a start. Hopefully he can keep this up for a while. Next year he could be a valuable trading chip or a great addition to the bullpen.

[CubColtPacer]

Still no Cubs have cracked the actual BA hot sheet this year (ouch) but Jeff Samardzija becomes the third Cub to crack the team photo or helium watch.

 

BA Prospect Hot Sheet 7/11/2008[/url]"]IN THE TEAM PHOTO

 

It defies explanation, but Triple-A Iowa RHP Jeff Samardzija (Cubs) has performed much better in the Pacific Coast League—through four starts—than he did at any point in Double-A this season. In two starts this week, the 23-year-old, fifth-round pick (2006) out of Notre Dame went 2-0, 4.12 in 13 1/3 innings, and struck out 13, walked three and gave up 15 hits and three home runs. Samardzija kept the ball on the ground, generating 17 groundball outs and 10 fly outs. Hey, it's a start...

Isn't AAA filled with retreads and guys wanting to be a coach or manager some day? I mean isn't there more talent in AA (albeit younger)?

 

That's at least the going wisdom that there are more prospects in AA than AAA at any given time, and it's most likely true.

 

AAA lineups are still harder to pitch to though. You do still have some prospects at AAA, plus the overall quality of the lineup around those prospects is better. For example, on the Iowa squad-Jason Dubois, Micah Hoffpauir, Andres Torres, Bobby Scales, Josh Kroeger. None of them are true prospects, but they're all at Iowa because they hit AAA pitching well for a living. You're not going to find many of those guys at AA, and those type of guys really form the meat of the AAA lineup and make it tough for a pitcher.

 

In this case though, what may be even more important than that is what type of leagues they are. The Southern League (AA) has an average OPS this season of around 736. The Pacific Coast League (AAA) has an average OPS of .785. To contrast, the average OPS in major league baseball this season is 740. So it's really pretty strange that Jeff can go from a slight pitchers league to an extreme hitters league and improve his numbers like he has.

 

Edit: I guess after a phone call I should check to see if somebody beat me to what I was going to post. Sorry about that CubinNY, I didn't mean to belabor the point.

[imb]

Hey, if I told you that there was a prospect in someone else's system that was a raw, college guy who had good, projectable stuff and was having more success at AAA than he had at any other level and at times looked pretty legit... there'd be reason for cautious optimism.

 

very true

 

I gave most of that fifth round a run through on baseball cube and it's filled with .500 OPS shortstops and 23-year old 5.00 ERA guys in A ball. We gave Samardzija a lot of money, but it doesnt look like it has effected our overall budget and, for a fifth rounder, he's a decent prospect.

 

At this point it looks like, at the very least, we're going to get some decent major league innings from him, how many other 5th round and beyond guys from 2006 can you say that about? Not many, i'd bet. I know it's not exactly a ringing endorsement, but it could be a lot worse.

[Guest]

No Cubs on this week's hot sheet (Samardzija doesn't even sniff the team photo!?) but guess who checked in at #10:

 

No. 10 JOSH DONALDSON, C ATHLETICS

 

Team: high Class A Stockton (California)

Age: 22

Why He's Here: .435/.480/1.000, 10-for-23, 9 R, 1 2B, 4 HR, 11 RBIs, 2-8 BB-K, 0-for-1 SB

The Scoop: Give Donaldson some credit for responding to a change of scenery. He was hitting .217/.276/.349 for low Class A Peoria before coming to the A's in the Rich Harden deal. With a new organization, Donaldson has moved up to high Class A and hit the ground running, putting up a .423/.483/.923 line and four home runs in his first seven games. It's not often that a guy jumps up a level and improves his numbers, but Donaldson is finding he likes how the ball jumps off the bat in the California League.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2008/266539.html

[jersey cubs fan]

Hey, if I told you that there was a prospect in someone else's system that was a raw, college guy who had good, projectable stuff and was having more success at AAA than he had at any other level and at times looked pretty legit... there'd be reason for cautious optimism.

 

very true

 

I gave most of that fifth round a run through on baseball cube and it's filled with .500 OPS shortstops and 23-year old 5.00 ERA guys in A ball. We gave Samardzija a lot of money, but it doesnt look like it has effected our overall budget and, for a fifth rounder, he's a decent prospect.

 

At this point it looks like, at the very least, we're going to get some decent major league innings from him, how many other 5th round and beyond guys from 2006 can you say that about? Not many, i'd bet. I know it's not exactly a ringing endorsement, but it could be a lot worse.

 

You can't really judge him as a 5th rounder. The Cubs took Colvin, in part, so they could afford Samardzija in the 5th. It's like drafting a guy who wants 1st round money in the 20th and still giving him that money. You can't say they got a steal at 20, and here, they didn't even wait until the very low rounds to risk the pick on him.

[CUBZ99]

Hey, if I told you that there was a prospect in someone else's system that was a raw, college guy who had good, projectable stuff and was having more success at AAA than he had at any other level and at times looked pretty legit... there'd be reason for cautious optimism.

 

very true

 

I gave most of that fifth round a run through on baseball cube and it's filled with .500 OPS shortstops and 23-year old 5.00 ERA guys in A ball. We gave Samardzija a lot of money, but it doesnt look like it has effected our overall budget and, for a fifth rounder, he's a decent prospect.

 

At this point it looks like, at the very least, we're going to get some decent major league innings from him, how many other 5th round and beyond guys from 2006 can you say that about? Not many, i'd bet. I know it's not exactly a ringing endorsement, but it could be a lot worse.

 

You can't really judge him as a 5th rounder. The Cubs took Colvin, in part, so they could afford Samardzija in the 5th. It's like drafting a guy who wants 1st round money in the 20th and still giving him that money. You can't say they got a steal at 20, and here, they didn't even wait until the very low rounds to risk the pick on him.

 

I don't think your memory is accurate on this. Wasn't that the year that the Cubs didn't have any picks in the 2nd and 3rd round (maybe even 4th), due to FA signings, and had the money left over from those slots to take a gamble on a 5th rd pick. I remember the Cubs stating over and over that they believed that Colvin was the best player available.

[illiniguy]

Hey, if I told you that there was a prospect in someone else's system that was a raw, college guy who had good, projectable stuff and was having more success at AAA than he had at any other level and at times looked pretty legit... there'd be reason for cautious optimism.

 

very true

 

I gave most of that fifth round a run through on baseball cube and it's filled with .500 OPS shortstops and 23-year old 5.00 ERA guys in A ball. We gave Samardzija a lot of money, but it doesnt look like it has effected our overall budget and, for a fifth rounder, he's a decent prospect.

 

At this point it looks like, at the very least, we're going to get some decent major league innings from him, how many other 5th round and beyond guys from 2006 can you say that about? Not many, i'd bet. I know it's not exactly a ringing endorsement, but it could be a lot worse.

 

You can't really judge him as a 5th rounder. The Cubs took Colvin, in part, so they could afford Samardzija in the 5th. It's like drafting a guy who wants 1st round money in the 20th and still giving him that money. You can't say they got a steal at 20, and here, they didn't even wait until the very low rounds to risk the pick on him.

 

I don't think your memory is accurate on this. Wasn't that the year that the Cubs didn't have any picks in the 2nd and 3rd round (maybe even 4th), due to FA signings, and had the money left over from those slots to take a gamble on a 5th rd pick. I remember the Cubs stating over and over that they believed that Colvin was the best player available.

Well if Wilken thought that Colvin was a better player than Snider, that is very scary.

[imb]

Hey, if I told you that there was a prospect in someone else's system that was a raw, college guy who had good, projectable stuff and was having more success at AAA than he had at any other level and at times looked pretty legit... there'd be reason for cautious optimism.

 

very true

 

I gave most of that fifth round a run through on baseball cube and it's filled with .500 OPS shortstops and 23-year old 5.00 ERA guys in A ball. We gave Samardzija a lot of money, but it doesnt look like it has effected our overall budget and, for a fifth rounder, he's a decent prospect.

 

At this point it looks like, at the very least, we're going to get some decent major league innings from him, how many other 5th round and beyond guys from 2006 can you say that about? Not many, i'd bet. I know it's not exactly a ringing endorsement, but it could be a lot worse.

 

You can't really judge him as a 5th rounder. The Cubs took Colvin, in part, so they could afford Samardzija in the 5th. It's like drafting a guy who wants 1st round money in the 20th and still giving him that money. You can't say they got a steal at 20, and here, they didn't even wait until the very low rounds to risk the pick on him.

 

I don't think your memory is accurate on this. Wasn't that the year that the Cubs didn't have any picks in the 2nd and 3rd round (maybe even 4th), due to FA signings, and had the money left over from those slots to take a gamble on a 5th rd pick. I remember the Cubs stating over and over that they believed that Colvin was the best player available.

 

I remember hearing that too, but I can't remember if it was speculation from fans or if it came from the cubs.

 

I still think you have to judge samardzija as a fifth rounder. Anyone else could have drafted him before we did, but didn't. I think you have to judge a player by the ones drafted near him.

 

Obviously Samardzija got paid more than any of the other 5th rounders, but like I said, it doesn't look like that came out of the cubs ML budget, so I don't think you put first rounder scrutiny on him.

 

We're just fortunate enough to be a team with a budget that can afford extravagances like this.

[Guest]

The Cubs said they didn't draft Colvin to save money for their future over-slot picks, pointing to their lack of picks in rounds 2 - 4 as reasons for how they could over slot the later picks (Samardzija, Andersen, Huseby, Rundle, Kreier and Samson). But Colvin got a lower bonus than each of the 8 guys drafted ahead of him.

[NCCubFan]

I still think you have to judge samardzija as a fifth rounder. Anyone else could have drafted him before we did, but didn't. I think you have to judge a player by the ones drafted near him.

 

Obviously Samardzija got paid more than any of the other 5th rounders, but like I said, it doesn't look like that came out of the cubs ML budget, so I don't think you put first rounder scrutiny on him.

I'd agree with you if he were considered to have fifth round talent and the Cubs overpaid. But when a player has a higher talent level and drops just due to signability concerns I think it's fair to evaluate him compared to his perceived talent level rather than his actual draft round. I don't recall whether he was generally considered to have first-round talent, but I do think he was at least considered a 2nd- or 3rd-rounder by talent, so I think it would be fair to judge him accordingly.

[Brett]

I still think you have to judge samardzija as a fifth rounder. Anyone else could have drafted him before we did, but didn't. I think you have to judge a player by the ones drafted near him.

 

Obviously Samardzija got paid more than any of the other 5th rounders, but like I said, it doesn't look like that came out of the cubs ML budget, so I don't think you put first rounder scrutiny on him.

I'd agree with you if he were considered to have fifth round talent and the Cubs overpaid. But when a player has a higher talent level and drops just due to signability concerns I think it's fair to evaluate him compared to his perceived talent level rather than his actual draft round. I don't recall whether he was generally considered to have first-round talent, but I do think he was at least considered a 2nd- or 3rd-rounder by talent, so I think it would be fair to judge him accordingly.

 

Right. How far did a guy like Porcello fall, for example?

[Guest]

July 25 Hotsheet - first Cub to make it all season!

 

No. 6 JEFF SAMARDZIJA, RHP

CUBS

 

Team: Triple-A Iowa (Pacific Coast)

Age: 23

Why He's Here: 1-0, 1.50, 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 SO

The Scoop: Even the boldest Samardzija backer could not have foreseen this. From just getting by in Double-A to making the big leagues, Samardzija has been one of July's most surprising—and for the Cubs, pleasant—developments. He rattled off five strong starts in six tries with the I-Cubs on his way to Wrigley, striking out 40 and walking 16 in 37 1/3 Triple-A innings. Samardzija did allow five home runs (two of them in Albuquerque) but otherwise kept the ball on the ground, posting a 1.39 groundout-to-fly out mark. Yes, the results finally seem to reconcile with Samardzija's raw stuff.

[Guest]

8/8/2008

 

IN THE TEAM PHOTO

 

Short-season Boise shortstop Ryan Flaherty (Cubs) manned an extra-base assault on the Northwest League during the last week, with seven doubles, a triple and two home runs in a six game span. However, Flaherty, 22, also showed why he does not project as a shortstop, as he had five errors in his last six games. . .

 

NOT-SO HOT SHEET

 

• Andrew Cashner, rhp, Cubs. After a brief stay in the Arizona League, the Cubs quickly advanced Cashner, the No. 19 overall selection in this year's draft, to short-season Boise, where he got off to a rocky start for the Hawks in his first appearance. But Cashner, 21, really outdid himself last Sunday when he tossed one inning and surrendered two hits and four earned runs while issuing five walks, somehow avoiding the first loss of his professional career. In two appearances with Boise, he has managed a 13.50 ERA, walked nine batters and struck out just three in 2 2/3 innings.

 

BLAST FROM THE PAST

 

• Brian Dopirak, 1b, Blue Jays. Back in 2005, Dopirak, 24, was considered one of the top prospects in the game. He ranked No. 1 in the Cubs system after hitting an unreal 39 home runs in the Midwest league as a 20-year-old. But then the wheels started to fall off. He hit only .235 in his first try at the Florida State League in 2006, as he got extremely pull happy. The Cubs promoted him to Double-A anyway, but he fared no better at West Tenn. Eventually they released him after he spent a second-season in Daytona in 2007. Now, in his third try at the Florida State League, and back in his hometown of Dunedin, Dopirak has figured the Florida State League out. His 27 home runs ranked second in the league at the time of his Thursday promotion to Double-A. He left the Florida State League with a bang, hitting .556/.586/1.185 in his final seven games, with four home runs, three doubles and a triple.

[Guest]

Q: Cub Fan from Chatham IL asks:

What position does Flaherty profile best since he's started off roughly at short? Thanks for the chat.

 

A: Ben Badler: You're welcome. At best, second or third base, because he won't stick at shortstop in pro ball.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/chat.php?id=2008080801&rnd=21