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Outshined_One

By Outshined_One,
in Cubs Minor League Talk

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Outshined_One Cooperstown

Outshined_One

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Considering Spring Training is starting up and I haven't seen anyone post their lists yet, I figure I might as well get this thread started.

 

I'll post mine a bit later. In the interim, let's see what you people think!

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Rob Knoxville Smokies

Rob

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My personal list, which is somewhat jumbled...

 

1. Vitters

2. Soto

3. Donaldson

4. Veal

5. Gallagher

6. Colvin

7. Samardzija

8. Thomas

9. Ceda

10. Huseby

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1. Vitters

2. Soto

3. Colvin

4. Gallagher

5. Donaldson

6. Samardzija

7. Veal

8. Ceda

9. Huseby

10. Thomas

11. Hernandez

 

Dropped in #11 since Soto should lose his eligibility after April.

Outshined_One Cooperstown

Outshined_One

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Mine...

 

1) Josh Vitters

 

Comments: This one is pretty obvious. Right now, Vitters is all potential. I'm a little concerned about his numbers in limited playing time last season, I won't deny it. However, considering the guy is still really young, has a very good swing for a right hander, and apparently has an excellent approach at the plate, there's reason for plenty of hope. I'd like to see and read more about him before officially going ga-ga over him, but there's plenty there to make me think the Cubs could have a bona fide stud in the system ready to step in at 3B. In all honesty, from what I've read about him, I think Vitters has the potential to be an Aramis Ramirez type of player at his ceiling. If the Cubs can somehow pull that off, then we've got a bona fide stud on our hands. Considering we're still a ways away...well, yeah.

 

2)

Geovany Soto

 

Comments: The man. The myth. The legend. Prior to this season, Soto was regarded by many to be a decent backup C in the future. He was good defensively, one of the most patient hitters in the system, and could have been slotted in the 8/9 slot without many people complaining about his offense. All of a sudden, last season, he just started crushing the ball. I don't know what the heck happened. Draw your own conclusions, be they legitimate or not. The fact remains that he suddenly developed enough power to become a legitimate middle of the order threat. I don't know about you, but considering the offense the Cubs got out of Barrett/Bowen/Kendall last season, it's not going to be hard for Soto to do much better than them both at the plate and behind it. I'll keep my fingers crossed that last season was no fluke in the meantime.

 

3) Sean Gallagher

 

He's been with the system long enough now that anything I write here will just rehash it all. The added velocity will help him a lot and the continued adjustments lead me to believe he has the ceiling of a #2 starter, which says a lot considering certain people even a year ago saw him as a potential relief pitcher down the line. I think a half season in AAA will do him good, but that depends on spring training and whether that damned Brian Roberts trade goes down.

 

4) Josh Donaldson

 

A pleasant surprise! I found it hilarious that people were screaming about not drafting an SEC catcher with an advanced approach at the plate and questions about defense and his natural position in the first round...and then turning around and bashing this pick. Donaldson has all the tools to become a plus hitter at catcher and still has some development to do before he becomes accustomed to being behind the plate. I'd like to see how he develops defensively in terms of calling games, blocking pitches, and throwing out runners. I love his potential and I think he's got what it takes to overtake Vitters as the top position prospect in this system. His bat's already there, but his defense needs to catch up.

 

5) Eric Patterson

 

What a weird situation the Cubs have with him. This ranking is contingent on him remaining at 2B and not being moved to CF. If that happens, kick him out of the Top 10 and move up my #11 guy. With that in mind, E-Patt is in the same boat as Gallagher in terms of having everything said about him pretty much being a rehash at this point. He's got a good bat and has all of the basic tools he needs to become a decent 2B, but he needs to get with the program defensively. He doesn't have very much left to prove in AAA as it is, so it's pretty much sink or swim for him at this point in the majors. I think he'll eventually grow into a good 2B, so I'm fine putting him here.

 

6) Tyler Colvin

 

I'm skeptical. Actually, I'm enormously skeptical. I see what everyone's saying. I get the hype. But...I can't shake the feeling that he's more hype than substance at this point. I try being really hopeful with him and I go back and forth on how good he is on a fairly regular basis when this topic comes up. When I look at him, I can't help but see Jacque Jones. I don't like seeing Jacque Jones. Maybe he'll pull a Jose Reyes on us and suddenly start drawing walks. I don't like this system's potential to teach a guy how to take a walk...but stranger things have happened. If you want my honest opinion, he's the top guy in this system I wouldn't mind seeing traded now. I don't think his value is going to be much higher. Maybe he'll come through and become a guy who regularly hits .300/.350/.470 with 20-25 HRs in CF. I don't think it'll happen, but who knows?

 

7) Donald Veal

 

Speaking of skeptical. Here's #2 on the list of guys in this system I wouldn't mind seeing traded. His walks just scare the crap out of me. His injury history makes me wonder. If he can put all that behind him, he's got the potential to become a legitimate stud starting pitcher. The problem is, guys who fit into his profile have a lot of trouble panning out. His attitude and coachability are supposed to be very good, so it's definitely possible that he can get those walks down. Next season in AA will pretty much make or break this guy.

 

8) Jeff Samardzija

 

I don't think this is his make or break season. I think that'll be next season. His hype and contract aren't helping when it comes to the amount of patience people should have for him, which hasn't helped his status around these parts one bit whatsoever. However, he finally finished his first full season of pitching and managed to make it through injury-free without having catastrophic numbers. That counts for something. He managed to look halfway decent during his time in AA, which also counts for something. We all know the potential and scouting reports by this time. I have a feeling he'll finally start delivering this season.

 

9) Chris Huseby

 

I absolutely love this guy. He sounded good coming back from injury and now he's another year removed from surgery. There's a lot of growing, maturing, and adjusting that needs to be done, but that'll all come in good time. I have a feeling he'll crack the Top 100 prospects next year. There's a lot to like with him, so I'll happily keep up the optimism.

 

10) Tony Thomas

 

It's tough to get a read on this guy. He tore apart the competition in the Northwest League, but considering he faced very good pitchers during his college career, I don't know how much of a jump it was for him. We'll get a much better picture of him next season, but for right now, this guy has me scratching my head. I like his bat, but sketchy defense at 2B is never a good sign.

 

In no particular order, just missed the cut:

 

Jose Ceda (BBs, arm injury history, and a relief pitcher? I think he'll be good next season, but the hype for him is getting out of hand)

Robert Hernandez (Love his upside, but he still needs to grow, fill out, and strike out more batters)

Kyler Burke (My big sleeper for next season. The batting average will come, but his IsoD and IsoP are already there.)

Juan Mateo (He needs to get healthy, but he's got the potential to be a decent back of the rotation guy)

 

Names to watch for next season (aside from the above-mentioned names):

 

RHP Larry Suarez, RHP Oswaldo Martinez, RHP Dae-Eun Rhee, LHP Harol Tolentino, RHP Alberto Cabrera (A bunch of foreign teenage pitching prospects with excellent upsides among them. If even one pans out as advertised, we'll be in the beans.)

LHP James Russell (Collegiate lefty out of UT-Austin could be one of the steals of the 2007 draft)

C Mario Mercedes, C Wellington Castillo (Two catching prospects who've been moving along slowly, but are quietly producing as they move along)

OF Cliff Andersen, OF Drew Rundle (I keep thinking about that scene in Caddyshack with Judge Smails when I think of these guys. "Well? We're waiting!")

3B Josh Lansford, 3B Marquez Smith (Between Vitters and Ramirez, I feel bad for these guys on the 3B depth chart)

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A minor quibble but despite what the Cubs media guide says, Harol Tolentino is actually a RHP. At this point, I think Mercedes is anything more than minor league roster filler. Carlos Perez is a greater prospect.
Wrigley Rat Draft Eligible

Wrigley Rat

Old-Timey Member
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1. Soto

2. Gallagher

3. Colvin

4. Donaldson

5. Vitters

6. Ceda

7. Hart

8. Veal

9. Samardzija

10. Petrick

11. Ascanio

Just missing: Patterson, Campusano, Thomas, Harben, Fuld, Roquet, Fox, Holliman

biittner77 South Bend Cubs

biittner77

Old-Timey Member
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I'm wondering, what criteria you guys are using to rate these players? Ceiling? Likelihood of reaching that ceiling? Likelihood of contributing at the ML level? If it's a combination of all these factors which weight more heavily?
Outshined_One Cooperstown

Outshined_One

Community Moderator
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I'm wondering, what criteria you guys are using to rate these players? Ceiling? Likelihood of reaching that ceiling? Likelihood of contributing at the ML level? If it's a combination of all these factors which weight more heavily?

 

I tend to use a combination of all those factors, along with some basic independent statistical evaluation (Things like IsoD, IsoP, HRs, and BABIP for hitters, things like K/9, BB/9, HR/9 for pitchers). It's also worth keeping in mind relative talent levels of the different levels of the different leagues along with any factors which could influence the pitching and hitting to varying degrees. The Florida State League (High A) and the Southern League (AA) are both well-known pitchers' leagues, for example.

CuseCubFan69 Chicago Cubs

CuseCubFan69

Old-Timey Member
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Out of this list of 15 or so prospects, how many/which ones will actually end up as actual MLB players? I've seen these Cub prospect lists before and it hasn't been pretty when it comes to contributing to the Cubs or any other MLB team.
sneakypower South Bend Cubs

sneakypower

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well judging from what i've seen, it's safe to say that i'm significantly less impressed with three major prospects than a lot of other people are.

how much have you watched Vitters, Samards & Colvin play?

Outshined_One Cooperstown

Outshined_One

Community Moderator
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Out of this list of 15 or so prospects, how many/which ones will actually end up as actual MLB players? I've seen these Cub prospect lists before and it hasn't been pretty when it comes to contributing to the Cubs or any other MLB team.

 

I'd say there's a decent chance we'll see more than half of these guys make it to the majors. This year's list is a bit on the top-heavy side. Of the names mentioned...

 

Guys who've already been in the majors: Geovany Soto, Eric Patterson, Sean Gallagher, Kevin Hart, Billy Petrick, Jose Ascanio, Jake Fox, Juan Mateo, Sam Fuld

Guys who are close to the majors (likely to be in the majors within a year/year & a half): Jeff Samardzija, Mark Holliman, Jose Ceda, Donald Veal, Ed Campusano, Rocky Roquet, Adam Harben, Tyler Colvin

Guys who are likely 2-3 years away from contributing: Josh Vitters, Josh Donaldson, Chris Huseby, Tony Thomas, Robert Hernandez

 

In terms of contributing to the majors in a meaningful way beyond being roster filler, that's a bit more of a tossup. I'd say we'd be lucky to get 5 guys out the above group who will be at least average at their respective positions.

CubinNY MVP

CubinNY

Old-Timey Member
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well judging from what i've seen, it's safe to say that i'm significantly less impressed with three major prospects than a lot of other people are.

how much have you watched Vitters, Samards & Colvin play?

Who are you? Joe Morgan

sneakypower South Bend Cubs

sneakypower

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Who are you? Joe Morgan
that's just an asinine rhetorical question.

 

I can't ask if he's seen these guys play? if he had, I'd be interested in what he saw that caused him to view them more harshly than everyone else. how on Earth can you judge a guy based solely on high school stats?? or a guy who was instructed not to throw his best pitch for much of the year.

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  1. Geovany Soto
  2. Geovany Soto
  3. Geovany Soto
  4. Geovany Soto
  5. Geovany Soto
  6. Geovany Soto
  7. Geovany Soto
  8. Geovany Soto
  9. Geovany Soto
  10. Geovany Soto

:good:

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