Bill James Handbook 2008 Cubs Projections

[SABR Gamer]

Don't know if this has been posted but these are next years projections from his handbook:

 

			AB	H	HR	AVG		OBP		SLG		RC/27 	
Soto			423	123	17	0.291	0.362	0.487	6.50 	
Lee			515	153	25	0.297	0.386	0.515	7.10
DeRosa		506	141	11	0.279	0.348	0.405	4.97
Theriot		512	145	3	0.283	0.348	0.371	4.73
Ramirez		568	168	31	0.296	0.355	0.532	6.83
Soriano		625	174	35	0.278	0.328	0.517	5.82
Pie			533	151	16	0.283	0.333	0.456	5.29
Jones			443	123	14	0.278	0.332	0.433	4.99
Ward			125	33	4	0.264	0.338	0.424	5.09
Fontenot		298	83	5	0.279	0.345	0.416	5.13

			IP	H	HR	BB	K	ERA		BR/9 	
Zambrano		215	177	19	99	189	3.52		12.1 	
Lilly			208	196	31 	77	174	3.98		12.1
Hill			206	173	28	69	223	3.50		11
Marquis		191	198	27	74	109	4.66		13.3
Marshall		102	100	13	41	68	4.15		12.7

			IP	H	HR	BB	K	ERA		BR/9		SV
Dempster		70	69	7	34	58	4.37		13.7		32
Howry			85	76	8	24	69	3.28		10.9		7
Eyre			55	52	5	28	50	4.09		13.3		0
Marmol		81	68	9	44	85	4.00		13.0		2
Ohman		30	26	3	15	32	3.90		12.9		0
Wuertz		72	59	7	32	83	3.50		11.5		0
Wood			60	48	7	29	65	3.75		12.2		0 

 

 

 

Jones and such are still on here but its got the other players we care about too.

 

Pie, Hill, and Soto are very impressive but Marmol would be a big disappointment and I would hope our big three hitters could out hit their projections.

 

 

On Fukudome, PECOTA has him projected as .289/.401/.504, 21 HR/81 RBI/111 R/13 SB, if he plays the full season.

 

The total average from a few websites for his stat line is: .288/.385/.476, 21 HR/81 RBI/95 R/7 SB

 

They also rate him as a plus defender, and we know he has a good arm. His projected value is $45 Million/4 years, so we payed him around the right cost.

 

I would be very happy if Fukudome plays at these projections.

Edited December 12, 2007 by New York Cubs Fan

[SABR Gamer]

Does anyone know if you can make a grid? that would make these stats much easier to read.

[haltz]

Does anyone know if you can make a grid? that would make these stats much easier to read.

Use the

 tags. It still might be messy if it isn't originally formatted correctly. You can use something like TextEdit or whatever it's called in Windows that has set spacing to format it, but that doesn't always work for me either.

[Cubbies622]

Marmol with a 4.00 era.... Doesn't Bill James know Marmol is the Chuck Norris of baseball?

[swordsman]

I thought Meph was the Chuck Norris of baseball.

[apete6]

Rich Hill: 223K, 69BB, 3.50 ERA :shock: :shock:

 

Bedard this...

[snoodmonger]

i don't buy those projections for theriot

[Cubbies622]

I also don't see fontenot getting nearly 300 at bats, and if he does I doubt he puts up half-decent numbers.

[CubColtPacer]

Rich Hill: 223K, 69BB, 3.50 ERA :shock: :shock:

 

Bedard this...

 

It should be noted that James had even better predictions for Hill last year than those predictions.

[Mephistopheles]

Not really. They're the same

[BigbadB]

He could have included Cedeno if he really wanted to.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I would certainly take that from Soto and Pie

[Ender]

i don't buy those projections for theriot

 

True, i doubt his stats are that good.

 

Most of those seem reasonable though I think BP is too high on Fuku for this season at least and I bet Soto takes a year to grow into those stats. He is also deluding himself that last year was a fluke for Zambrano, I think Shandler is correct to expect a 4ish ERA with the downside of a 4.50+ ERA. His arm has seen too much abuse. The Marmol projection is terrible, he was lucky as heck last year but he isnt' a 4 ERA bullpen arm either. Bill James has always been terrible at pitching projections.

[sneakypower]

i don't buy those projections for theriot

 

True, i doubt his stats are that good.

 

Most of those seem reasonable though I think BP is too high on Fuku for this season at least and I bet Soto takes a year to grow into those stats. He is also deluding himself that last year was a fluke for Zambrano, I think Shandler is correct to expect a 4ish ERA with the downside of a 4.50+ ERA. His arm has seen too much abuse. The Marmol projection is terrible, he was lucky as heck last year but he isnt' a 4 ERA bullpen arm either. Bill James has always been terrible at pitching projections.

 

if he had befell a season ending injury on august 26th, he would have kept a .288/.351/.376 line, and he wouldn't so much be considered the scourge of the Earth on here.

[Mephistopheles]

i don't buy those projections for theriot

 

True, i doubt his stats are that good.

 

Most of those seem reasonable though I think BP is too high on Fuku for this season at least and I bet Soto takes a year to grow into those stats. He is also deluding himself that last year was a fluke for Zambrano, I think Shandler is correct to expect a 4ish ERA with the downside of a 4.50+ ERA. His arm has seen too much abuse. The Marmol projection is terrible, he was lucky as heck last year but he isnt' a 4 ERA bullpen arm either. Bill James has always been terrible at pitching projections.

 

if he had befell a season ending injury on august 26th, he would have kept a .288/.351/.376 line, and he wouldn't so much be considered the scourge of the Earth on here.

 

 

and if he got hurt in july or april he would have made us desire neifi

[Tracer Bullet]

Not that he'll be a Cub on Opening Day, but I'd like to see Murton's projections.

[UMFan83]

So the Cubs starting lineup OPS:

 

Soriano:    .845
Fukudome:   .905
Lee:        .901
Ramirez:    .887
Soto:       .849
DeRosa:     .753
Pie:        .789
Theriot:    .719

[TruffleShuffle]

geovany soto

[Clem Fandango]

Wow, to be honest, I don't buy these projections for one second. How long ago were these projections made? Jones is still on the team? Dempster is still the closer?

 

I don't know, some of these seem kind of loopy to me. The day Mike Fontenot puts up better/similar numbers than Daryle Ward is the day I will intentionally poop my pants in befuddlement. That and Bill James has a crush on Rich Hill. I wish he didn't, these projections will get my hopes up. I'll be expecting Cy Young numbers out of him instead of acceptable above average ones.

[JGalt73]

Using Baseball Musings' lineup analysis and the predictions as above (with a PECOTA for Fukudome):

 

Cubs avg R/G: 5.194

 

Best lineup: 5.431 R/G

Fukudome

Lee

DeRosa

Ramirez

Soto

Soriano

Pie

Pitcher

Theriot

 

Worst lineup: 4.771 R/G

 

With a .360/.475 line for Fukudome: 5.068 R/G avg; 5.289 R/G best

[UMFan83]

Using Baseball Musings' lineup analysis and the predictions as above (with a PECOTA for Fukudome):

 

Cubs avg R/G: 5.194

 

Best lineup: 5.431 R/G

Fukudome

Lee

DeRosa

Ramirez

Soto

Soriano

Pie

Pitcher

Theriot

 

Worst lineup: 4.771 R/G

 

With a .360/.475 line for Fukudome: 5.068 R/G avg; 5.289 R/G best

 

Considering we scored 4.6 RPG last season, that pretty good.

[Sarcastic]

Does it seem at all like Geovany Soto is this year's Ryan Theriot? They were both young players who replaced unpopular and unproductive veterans (Kendall-Perez), both had strong performances in a highly limited number of ABs, both had a little minor league success, and both had high fan expectations for the following year. I'd be shocked if Soto ever puts up an .850 OPS for a full season in his entire career.

 

Hopefully his AAA success this year wasn't just a fluke. If he can be a league average catcher, that'd be great, but I think we are probably going to have to revise his numbers downwards if we want to be realistic about the team's likely run production.

[SouthSideRyan]

Soto's AAA OPS this year was about 9000 points higher than any year Theriot had in the minors.

[CubColtPacer]

Does it seem at all like Geovany Soto is this year's Ryan Theriot? They were both young players who replaced unpopular and unproductive veterans (Kendall-Perez), both had strong performances in a highly limited number of ABs, both had a little minor league success, and both had high fan expectations for the following year. I'd be shocked if Soto ever puts up an .850 OPS for a full season in his entire career.

 

Hopefully his AAA success this year wasn't just a fluke. If he can be a league average catcher, that'd be great, but I think we are probably going to have to revise his numbers downwards if we want to be realistic about the team's likely run production.

 

I would compare Soto more to Cedeno than Theriot. Theriot never really had that big breakout year in the minors like Cedeno and Soto did. I do believe that Soto is much more ready for the majors than Cedeno was in 2006. At the same time, I agree with you that we need to adjust that .850 number down by at least 50 points and probably closer to 100 points.

[wolf stansson]

Once again, if Bill James is right, the Cubs dominate the NL.