WSCR Rumor?

[Rob]

Bedard and Hill are pretty much the same pitcher, with Hill perhaps having the potential to strike out a few more

 

How do you figure? Bedard struck out almost 40 more batters in 13 fewer innings last year, against much tougher hitters.

 

Minor league numbers, my friend. This was on the low end of what we should have expected from Hill's K/9, wheras this seems to be a fluke high for Bedard.

[Tyrant]

Bedard and Hill are pretty much the same pitcher, with Hill perhaps having the potential to strike out a few more

 

How do you figure? Bedard struck out almost 40 more batters in 13 fewer innings last year, against much tougher hitters.

 

Minor league numbers, my friend. This was on the low end of what we should have expected from Hill's K/9, wheras this seems to be a fluke high for Bedard.

 

I disagree, but that's fine.

[rawaction]

Bedard and Hill are pretty much the same pitcher, with Hill perhaps having the potential to strike out a few more

 

How do you figure? Bedard struck out almost 40 more batters in 13 fewer innings last year, against much tougher hitters.

 

How so?

 

AL hitters- .270/.338/.423

NL hitters- .266/.334/.422

 

He made two starts against Boston, two against Cleveland, three against the Yankees. That's a decent chunk of his innings. Hill pitched in the worst division in baseball.

 

4 starts against Tampa. 3 against Oakland. The same number of starts vs. those 3. Two bottom 5 offenses.

[Post Count Padder]

I don't see a whole lot of a difference between the two. Bedard may be better leaving the AL East for the NL, but not certainly not light years better. Hill will also continue to improve, he has not hit his peak yet.

[Tyrant]

4 starts against Tampa. 3 against Oakland. The same number of starts vs. those 3. Two bottom 5 offenses.

 

Tampa finished right in the middle of the pack last year with 782 runs, one run behind Cincinnati.

[Outshined_One]

I wouldn't mind having both Hill and Bedard on this team. :D

 

However, it'll cost more than just Hill to trade for Bedard. Even if Bedard is a notch better than Hill, that difference in talent does not justify trading a package like Hill, Pie, and E-Patt for Bedard. I'd rather keep Hill and use the other two either as trade bait elsewhere or as additions to the offense.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Bedard and Hill are pretty much the same pitcher, with Hill perhaps having the potential to strike out a few more

 

How do you figure? Bedard struck out almost 40 more batters in 13 fewer innings last year, against much tougher hitters.

 

How so?

 

AL hitters- .270/.338/.423

NL hitters- .266/.334/.422

 

He made two starts against Boston, two against Cleveland, three against the Yankees. That's a decent chunk of his innings. Hill pitched in the worst division in baseball.

 

Hill made 4 starts against Milwaukee, 2 against Philadelphia, and another against the Mets.

[Derwood]

people need to stop putting so much emphasis on what division a guy is in. Someone (I think Schilling) came up for some reason last year and someone said "his numbers are really good for facing the AL East all the time". I looked it up and his ERA against the AL East sucked but was compensated for his starts against non-East teams

[Tyrant]

I'm just surprised so many people think Hill is as good as Bedard.

 

If we're talking about value, that's another argument. I wouldn't want to trade Hill + others for Bedard because Hill is under our control for so long, but Bedard was a lot better than Hill using any metric out there. But if, like someone else mentioned, we're just talking about who is a better pitcher, it seems clear it's Bedard.

[rawaction]

I'm just surprised so many people think Hill is as good as Bedard.

 

If we're talking about value, that's another argument. I wouldn't want to trade Hill + others for Bedard because Hill is under our control for so long, but Bedard was a lot better than Hill using any metric out there. But if, like someone else mentioned, we're just talking about who is a better pitcher, it seems clear it's Bedard.

 

 

Hint: look at more than 2007.

[Tyrant]

I'm just surprised so many people think Hill is as good as Bedard.

 

If we're talking about value, that's another argument. I wouldn't want to trade Hill + others for Bedard because Hill is under our control for so long, but Bedard was a lot better than Hill using any metric out there. But if, like someone else mentioned, we're just talking about who is a better pitcher, it seems clear it's Bedard.

 

 

Hint: look at more than 2007.

 

I know I'm new, but why is everyone so condescending and belittling around here?

[nilodnayr]

Hills opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 730

Bedards opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 744

[rawaction]

I'm just surprised so many people think Hill is as good as Bedard.

 

If we're talking about value, that's another argument. I wouldn't want to trade Hill + others for Bedard because Hill is under our control for so long, but Bedard was a lot better than Hill using any metric out there. But if, like someone else mentioned, we're just talking about who is a better pitcher, it seems clear it's Bedard.

 

 

Hint: look at more than 2007.

 

I know I'm new, but why is everyone so condescending and belittling around here?

 

I wasn't trying to be. I'm really sorry if I was. You will come to find out, that's not my style at all.

[Tyrant]

I'm just surprised so many people think Hill is as good as Bedard.

 

If we're talking about value, that's another argument. I wouldn't want to trade Hill + others for Bedard because Hill is under our control for so long, but Bedard was a lot better than Hill using any metric out there. But if, like someone else mentioned, we're just talking about who is a better pitcher, it seems clear it's Bedard.

 

 

Hint: look at more than 2007.

 

I know I'm new, but why is everyone so condescending and belittling around here?

 

I wasn't trying to be. I'm really sorry if I was. You will come to find out, that's not my style at all.

 

Wasn't necessarily aimed at you. Sorry. It just seems like there's a lot of sniping at certain times.

 

I guess that's the nature of a message board.

[Rob]

Bedard and Hill are pretty much the same pitcher, with Hill perhaps having the potential to strike out a few more

 

How do you figure? Bedard struck out almost 40 more batters in 13 fewer innings last year, against much tougher hitters.

 

Minor league numbers, my friend. This was on the low end of what we should have expected from Hill's K/9, wheras this seems to be a fluke high for Bedard.

 

I disagree, but that's fine.

 

Feel free to disagree all you like, but Hill struck out 12.49 per 9 in his minor league career.... Bedard was quite high, but didn't crack 11 per 9, IIRC. There's a reason Bill James pegged Rich Hill to lead the NL in strikeouts before last season.

[Post Count Padder]

I'm just surprised so many people think Hill is as good as Bedard.

 

If we're talking about value, that's another argument. I wouldn't want to trade Hill + others for Bedard because Hill is under our control for so long, but Bedard was a lot better than Hill using any metric out there. But if, like someone else mentioned, we're just talking about who is a better pitcher, it seems clear it's Bedard.

 

 

Hint: look at more than 2007.

 

I know I'm new, but why is everyone so condescending and belittling around here?

 

I wasn't trying to be. I'm really sorry if I was. You will come to find out, that's not my style at all.

 

Wasn't necessarily aimed at you. Sorry. It just seems like there's a lot of sniping at certain times.

 

I guess that's the nature of a message board.

Most of the guys here are nice. Sometimes people just get riled up.

[Rob]

I'm just surprised so many people think Hill is as good as Bedard.

 

If we're talking about value, that's another argument. I wouldn't want to trade Hill + others for Bedard because Hill is under our control for so long, but Bedard was a lot better than Hill using any metric out there. But if, like someone else mentioned, we're just talking about who is a better pitcher, it seems clear it's Bedard.

 

 

Hint: look at more than 2007.

 

I know I'm new, but why is everyone so condescending and belittling around here?

 

I wasn't trying to be. I'm really sorry if I was. You will come to find out, that's not my style at all.

 

Wasn't necessarily aimed at you. Sorry. It just seems like there's a lot of sniping at certain times.

 

I guess that's the nature of a message board.

 

Yeah, it's pretty tough to pull off my style on a message board. And pulling out statistics on a message board almost always makes one come off sounding condescending.

 

Rest assured, I'm just trying to share my opinions. I'm not trying to hurt anybody's feelings.

[rawaction]

I'm just surprised so many people think Hill is as good as Bedard.

 

If we're talking about value, that's another argument. I wouldn't want to trade Hill + others for Bedard because Hill is under our control for so long, but Bedard was a lot better than Hill using any metric out there. But if, like someone else mentioned, we're just talking about who is a better pitcher, it seems clear it's Bedard.

 

 

Hint: look at more than 2007.

 

I know I'm new, but why is everyone so condescending and belittling around here?

 

I wasn't trying to be. I'm really sorry if I was. You will come to find out, that's not my style at all.

 

Wasn't necessarily aimed at you. Sorry. It just seems like there's a lot of sniping at certain times.

 

I guess that's the nature of a message board.

 

I guess the "hint" part could be viewed that way. Again, I apologize.

 

Also, to be clear, I wasn't disputing that Bedard is a better pitcher. I think he is, but it's a virtual wash. I don't think the difference in competition is that big (as I pointed out). I don't think the difference in talent is that big. I do like that Bedard keeps the ball on the ground more, but all signs point to Hill being the better strikeout pitcher (minors and past ML history).

 

It's like arguing Brady or Peyton Manning. It's basically a matter of choice.

[Hosak8]

I'm just surprised so many people think Hill is as good as Bedard.

 

If we're talking about value, that's another argument. I wouldn't want to trade Hill + others for Bedard because Hill is under our control for so long, but Bedard was a lot better than Hill using any metric out there. But if, like someone else mentioned, we're just talking about who is a better pitcher, it seems clear it's Bedard.

 

 

Hint: look at more than 2007.

 

I know I'm new, but why is everyone so condescending and belittling around here?

 

Get used to it.

[UK1679666180]

I'm just surprised so many people think Hill is as good as Bedard.

 

If we're talking about value, that's another argument. I wouldn't want to trade Hill + others for Bedard because Hill is under our control for so long, but Bedard was a lot better than Hill using any metric out there. But if, like someone else mentioned, we're just talking about who is a better pitcher, it seems clear it's Bedard.

 

 

Hint: look at more than 2007.

 

I know I'm new, but why is everyone so condescending and belittling around here?

 

Get used to it.

 

I'm a softee.

[Rob]

I'm just surprised so many people think Hill is as good as Bedard.

 

If we're talking about value, that's another argument. I wouldn't want to trade Hill + others for Bedard because Hill is under our control for so long, but Bedard was a lot better than Hill using any metric out there. But if, like someone else mentioned, we're just talking about who is a better pitcher, it seems clear it's Bedard.

 

 

Hint: look at more than 2007.

 

I know I'm new, but why is everyone so condescending and belittling around here?

 

Get used to it.

 

Bah. Not even Meph does that anymore. He's moved on to simple ego-gratification (and the response of everybody here to his posts now is fun to watch).

 

The only real sniping is between OMC and IMB.

[Outshined_One]

Feel free to disagree all you like, but Hill struck out 12.49 per 9 in his minor league career.... Bedard was quite high, but didn't crack 11 per 9, IIRC. There's a reason Bill James pegged Rich Hill to lead the NL in strikeouts before last season.

 

As a warning, you have to be really careful with Hill's career minor league numbers. In his first few seasons in the minors, Hill was Wild Thing incarnate. His curveball was almost completely out of control any time he threw it. There were a few anecdotes out there that he'd throw a curveball that would cause a right handed hitter to dive out of the way, yet would end up hitting the backstop behind the left handed batters' box. He had no control whatsoever of that pitch up until around the time when he arrived at Daytona in 2004.

 

His 2005 and 2006 numbers were really freaking good, no doubt about it, but before then...*shudder*

[Post Count Padder]

I'm just surprised so many people think Hill is as good as Bedard.

 

If we're talking about value, that's another argument. I wouldn't want to trade Hill + others for Bedard because Hill is under our control for so long, but Bedard was a lot better than Hill using any metric out there. But if, like someone else mentioned, we're just talking about who is a better pitcher, it seems clear it's Bedard.

 

 

Hint: look at more than 2007.

 

I know I'm new, but why is everyone so condescending and belittling around here?

 

Get used to it.

 

Bah. Not even Meph does that anymore. He's moved on to simple ego-gratification (and the response of everybody here to his posts now is fun to watch).

 

The only real sniping is between OMC and IMB.

Which will go on til the end of time

[Danny82]

Feel free to disagree all you like, but Hill struck out 12.49 per 9 in his minor league career.... Bedard was quite high, but didn't crack 11 per 9, IIRC. There's a reason Bill James pegged Rich Hill to lead the NL in strikeouts before last season.

 

Have you considered that maybe there is a reason that Bill James was wrong?

 

For instance, maybe Bedard's strikeouts in the minors were on pitches more likely to strike out major league hitters than Hill's were?

[jersey cubs fan]

Feel free to disagree all you like, but Hill struck out 12.49 per 9 in his minor league career.... Bedard was quite high, but didn't crack 11 per 9, IIRC. There's a reason Bill James pegged Rich Hill to lead the NL in strikeouts before last season.

 

Have you considered that maybe there is a reason that Bill James was wrong?

 

For instance, maybe Bedard's strikeouts in the minors were on pitches more likely to strike out major league hitters than Hill's were?

 

Don't they strike out essentially the same amount? 8.74 to 8.43 in the majors, with Bedard's 2007 being the one outlier of all the seasons that tilt it in his favor?