MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm just not sure i like giving up Sean, i really like the look of him and if patterson can be a speedy Utility guy to go with Derosa is the upgrade worth the talent we'll be giving away?

 

Trading a prospect is not giving up on a prospect, nor is it giving away a prospect. Value such as what Roberts brings requires losing something of value.

 

While I agree with your statement that trading somebody is not "giving up on" or "giving away", I don't think our friend from across the pond was suggesting it was. He was asking if the upgrade was worth the talent going the other way, acknowledging, I believe, that you have to give up something to get something.

[CubColtPacer]

What do people think about Payton vs Crisp?? Would we be wiser looking to offload Jason M to Boston for Crisp?. I get the feeling the only way the O's do this deal is with clearing some trash ie Payton.

 

PECOTA projections

 

Payton: .267/.309/.400 (vs. LHP .282/.330/.414) average CF defense? (+2 in LF)

 

Crisp: .271/.335/.415 (vs. LHP .280/.337/.413) GG CF defense (+8 in CF)

 

Big salary differences, though.

 

Plus throw in the fact that Crisp has already said he doesn't want to be a reserve OF, and I don't really believe that Crisp will outproduce Payton against left-handers. Here's their 3 year splits against LHP:

Crisp: .264/.323/.400

Payton: .288/.339/.444

 

I think Crisp is the much better player overall, but Payton is probably a better option to be a 4th/5th OF and platoon partner against LH'ers.

[UMFan83]

I hate when people do this, but I'm way too lazy to look it up myself right now, so I'm gonna do it anyway. Does Payton at least have some semblance of value as a platoon partner for Pie? Is he, at the very least, a respectable hitter vs. LHP? Can he still play much CF (again, at least passably)?

 

vs. LH last season - .283/.353/.423/.776

vs. LH career - .287/.347/.456/.803

 

Decent I guess, but I'd rather Pie just play w/o a platoon.

[Outshined_One]

I hate when people do this, but I'm way too lazy to look it up myself right now, so I'm gonna do it anyway. Does Payton at least have some semblance of value as a platoon partner for Pie? Is he, at the very least, a respectable hitter vs. LHP? Can he still play much CF (again, at least passably)?

 

Career vs. LHP: .287/.347/.456

Last three years vs. LHP: .288/.339/.444

 

He's mediocre in CF.

 

Edit: Damnit UMFan and CCP!

[cbbryan]

I'm just not sure i like giving up Sean, i really like the look of him and if patterson can be a speedy Utility guy to go with Derosa is the upgrade worth the talent we'll be giving away?

 

Trading a prospect is not giving up on a prospect, nor is it giving away a prospect. Value such as what Roberts brings requires losing something of value. The Cubs do not have a lot of trade value at the major league level, and must resort to trading prospects for value. Gallagher is not regarded as a sure thing or can't miss prospect by anyone in the business of grading prospects, so if anything, the Orioles take the greater risk in a deal with Cubs by trading away their best MLB player for no sure-fire MLB talent and no can't miss prospects.

 

Roberts is better then Nick Markakis now?

[TheDude]

are you serious...i know everyone wants cedeno to succeed...i do too...but really i doubt he is going to win a job out of the gate over theriot and we still don't know if he is going to succeed as a solid major league starter...

 

so really, we are giving up two starters...gallagher and murton (who doesn't have a spot on this team) and then two reserve middle infielders...

 

that is not a bad deal at all really, you have to give to get man

 

You're giving up young pitching (have you seen the price of pitching lately) for a slight upgrade at 2B. Then on top of that you're trading an OF that could start on your team. More then a few Cub fans have given Hendry flack in the past for selling low and trading Murton in a Roberts deal would be even worse then selling low.

 

The flip-side to your argument is that most Cubs fans don't practically believe in selling high, only in theory. If the Cubs have any prospect of value (say top 50 or even top 100 overall), they act like those prospects can only be dealt for elite MLB quality players, like Cabrera (or elite saber-inclined players, like Dunn).

 

Gallagher is a Cubs prospect with a buzz. He is not a head turner or elite prospect in the scope of all teams' prospects, but is someone worth noting from the Cubs system. This is a time in his career to sell high on him while he has a buzz, but before he has really showcased his MLB stuff. And so naturally few Cubs fans want to include him in a deal.

 

If the Cubs keep him and use him in the 2008 rotation, he'll either dramatically increase his value, or diminish it to the point of sell low status. In either situation, folks would not want to trade him still.

[TheDude]

I'm just not sure i like giving up Sean, i really like the look of him and if patterson can be a speedy Utility guy to go with Derosa is the upgrade worth the talent we'll be giving away?

 

Trading a prospect is not giving up on a prospect, nor is it giving away a prospect. Value such as what Roberts brings requires losing something of value. The Cubs do not have a lot of trade value at the major league level, and must resort to trading prospects for value. Gallagher is not regarded as a sure thing or can't miss prospect by anyone in the business of grading prospects, so if anything, the Orioles take the greater risk in a deal with Cubs by trading away their best MLB player for no sure-fire MLB talent and no can't miss prospects.

 

Roberts is better then Nick Markakis now?

 

No he is not, both in terms of potential and long-term value. Markakis is clearly the future of that franchise. No matter how unlikely though, Markakis is still young enough to be a bust. My choice of the word 'best' may have poor in the context used, perhaps 'proven' or 'consistent' would have been better, but I think the point was clear regardless.

[cbbryan]

are you serious...i know everyone wants cedeno to succeed...i do too...but really i doubt he is going to win a job out of the gate over theriot and we still don't know if he is going to succeed as a solid major league starter...

 

so really, we are giving up two starters...gallagher and murton (who doesn't have a spot on this team) and then two reserve middle infielders...

 

that is not a bad deal at all really, you have to give to get man

 

You're giving up young pitching (have you seen the price of pitching lately) for a slight upgrade at 2B. Then on top of that you're trading an OF that could start on your team. More then a few Cub fans have given Hendry flack in the past for selling low and trading Murton in a Roberts deal would be even worse then selling low.

 

The flip-side to your argument is that most Cubs fans don't practically believe in selling high, only in theory. If the Cubs have any prospect of value (say top 50 or even top 100 overall), they act like those prospects can only be dealt for elite MLB quality players, like Cabrera (or elite saber-inclined players, like Dunn).

 

Gallagher is a Cubs prospect with a buzz. He is not a head turner or elite prospect in the scope of all teams' prospects, but is someone worth noting from the Cubs system. This is a time in his career to sell high on him while he has a buzz, but before he has really showcased his MLB stuff. And so naturally few Cubs fans want to include him in a deal.

 

If the Cubs keep him and use him in the 2008 rotation, he'll either dramatically increase his value, or diminish it to the point of sell low status. In either situation, folks would not want to trade him still.

 

Gallagher being included isn't necessarily my only problem. If it where Gallagher and one other player then I'd be okay with it. What is being floated around is some variation of these players Gallagher, Veal, EPatt, Cedeno, Ceda, Marquis, and Murton.

 

If you include 4 of those players you're overpaying for Roberts. 4 of those players is better then what the O's got for Tejada. That's my point. It's too much value for Roberts, IMO.

Edited March 3, 2008 by cbbryan

[Outshined_One]

Gallagher being included isn't necessarily my only problem. If it where Gallagher and one other player then I'd be okay with it. What is being floated around is some variation of these players Gallagher, Veal, EPatt, Cedeno, Cueto, Marquis, and Murton.

 

I must have missed something...did we make a trade with the Reds? :D

[cbbryan]

Gallagher being included isn't necessarily my only problem. If it where Gallagher and one other player then I'd be okay with it. What is being floated around is some variation of these players Gallagher, Veal, EPatt, Cedeno, Cueto, Marquis, and Murton.

 

I must have missed something...did we make a trade with the Reds? :D

 

Haha, sorry I meant Ceda.

[BigbadB]

I'd love to see us include Cueto in that deal.

[TheDude]

Gallagher being included isn't necessarily my only problem. If it where Gallagher and one other player then I'd be okay with it. What is being floated around is some variation of these players Gallagher, Veal, EPatt, Cedeno, Ceda, Marquis, and Murton.

 

If you include 4 of those players you're overpaying for Roberts. 4 of those players is better then what the O's got for Tejada. That's my point. It's too much value for Roberts, IMO.

The Astros gave up 5 players to get Tejada, including 3 pitchers. Luke Scott is better than Murton on paper, but I'm not certain given the ages if Murton couldn't catch up. I do not know enough about the 3 pitchers Houston gave up to grade them relative to the names the Cubs are considering, but the pitchers in that deal were all 26 and under in age, and each had at least a cup of coffee in Houston.

 

I really don't see any of the proposed deals for Roberts as 'better than' what the O's got for Tejada. From a purely objective standpoint, I would argue the O's didn't get enough value from either deal (if you assume both as complete), as quantity doesn't usually equate to quality. In other words, neither deal nets a sure thing top 10 starter-for-position player at the big league level, which is what both Roberts and Tejada are.

[cbbryan]

Gallagher being included isn't necessarily my only problem. If it where Gallagher and one other player then I'd be okay with it. What is being floated around is some variation of these players Gallagher, Veal, EPatt, Cedeno, Ceda, Marquis, and Murton.

 

If you include 4 of those players you're overpaying for Roberts. 4 of those players is better then what the O's got for Tejada. That's my point. It's too much value for Roberts, IMO.

The Astros gave up 5 players to get Tejada, including 3 pitchers. Luke Scott is better than Murton on paper, but I'm not certain given the ages if Murton couldn't catch up. I do not know enough about the 3 pitchers Houston gave up to grade them relative to the names the Cubs are considering, but the pitchers in that deal were all 26 and under in age, and each had at least a cup of coffee in Houston.

 

I really don't see any of the proposed deals for Roberts as 'better than' what the O's got for Tejada. From a purely objective standpoint, I would argue the O's didn't get enough value from either deal (if you assume both as complete), as quantity doesn't usually equate to quality. In other words, neither deal nets a sure thing top 10 starter-for-position player at the big league level, which is what both Roberts and Tejada are.

 

 

Luke Scott isn't much better then Murton if at all. They're virtually the same player. Gallagher projects to be at least as good as Patton. I believe the other arms in the Tejada deal where back of the rotation/relief.

 

I wasn't really impressed with the package the O's received for Tejada honestly.

 

I just think 4 players for Roberts is a steep price to pay. Too steep.

[Post Count Padder]

The Cubs and Orioles have resumed trade talks involving Brian Roberts, and one person familiar with the talks told SI.com discussions were starting to get serious.

 

Jay Payton is a possibility to go to Chicago in one of the scenarios. Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, Ronny Cedeno and Matt Murton are some of the players that have been involved in the rumors from the Cubs side since they first started up three months ago.

Source: SI.com

[cbbryan]

The Cubs and Orioles have resumed trade talks involving Brian Roberts, and one person familiar with the talks told SI.com discussions were starting to get serious.

 

Jay Payton is a possibility to go to Chicago in one of the scenarios. Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, Ronny Cedeno and Matt Murton are some of the players that have been involved in the rumors from the Cubs side since they first started up three months ago.

Source: SI.com

 

Including Marshall would be even worse!!!!

[brinoch]

Hey, this trade may happen before I graduate college. Who knew.

 

Let's stop the crazy talk here. These are the Orioles we're talking about.

[Vanilla Ice]

The Cubs and Orioles have resumed trade talks involving Brian Roberts, and one person familiar with the talks told SI.com discussions were starting to get serious.

 

Jay Payton is a possibility to go to Chicago in one of the scenarios. Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, Ronny Cedeno and Matt Murton are some of the players that have been involved in the rumors from the Cubs side since they first started up three months ago.

Source: SI.com

 

Including Marshall would be even worse!!!!

 

Unless by some odd chance, that means we keep Gallagher

[shnsajax]

The Cubs and Orioles have resumed trade talks involving Brian Roberts, and one person familiar with the talks told SI.com discussions were starting to get serious.

 

Jay Payton is a possibility to go to Chicago in one of the scenarios. Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, Ronny Cedeno and Matt Murton are some of the players that have been involved in the rumors from the Cubs side since they first started up three months ago.

Source: SI.com

 

Including Marshall would be even worse!!!!

 

Think they are just listing names of players who have come up not saying that is a potential deal. I don't see both marshall and Gallagher being involved, one or the other.

[TheDude]

The Cubs and Orioles have resumed trade talks involving Brian Roberts, and one person familiar with the talks told SI.com discussions were starting to get serious.

 

Jay Payton is a possibility to go to Chicago in one of the scenarios. Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, Ronny Cedeno and Matt Murton are some of the players that have been involved in the rumors from the Cubs side since they first started up three months ago.

Source: SI.com

 

Including Marshall would be even worse!!!!

 

Unless by some odd chance, that means we keep Gallagher

 

With the recent flare-up of Lou over the Marquis ultimatum, it would not surprise me to see Marquis, Gallagher or Marshall, Cedeno, and Murton get moved for Roberts and Payton.

 

The Cubs will not move more than two pitchers that project as starters for 2008.

[waffle]

Marshall didn't start today - he was scheduled, right????

 

CONSPIRACY ALERT

[CubColtPacer]

Marshall didn't start today - he was scheduled, right????

 

CONSPIRACY ALERT

 

That conspiracy won't have much legs when Marshall comes in the game in an inning or two :D

[CubsGM]

Marshall didn't start today - he was scheduled, right????

 

CONSPIRACY ALERT

Lieber was scheduled. Marshall was scheduled to pitch, not to start.

[WilcoFan]

I think a moment must be taken to give Kudos to whatever scout has the foresight to get Hendry to target Ceda in the Walker deal. Pretty darn good get, especially if he either turns out to be a solid MLB pitcher or gets them a decent MLB player in a trade.

[MADD_DOG_31]

The Cubs and Orioles have resumed trade talks involving Brian Roberts, and one person familiar with the talks told SI.com discussions were starting to get serious.

 

Jay Payton is a possibility to go to Chicago in one of the scenarios. Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, Ronny Cedeno and Matt Murton are some of the players that have been involved in the rumors from the Cubs side since they first started up three months ago.

Source: SI.com

 

Including Marshall would be even worse!!!!

 

have we been watching the same Marshall who just keeps losing velocity....he was barely breaking 80 at times last year....Marshall can go IMO

[BigbadB]

With the recent flare-up of Lou over the Marquis ultimatum, it would not surprise me to see Marquis, Gallagher or Marshall, Cedeno, and Murton get moved for Roberts and Payton.

 

The Cubs will not move more than two pitchers that project as starters for 2008.

 

I don't even think the mini flare up has anything to do with it. If Payton is coming this way in the deal, you have to figure that Marquis is going the other way. I don't think there is any possible way the Cubs take on Roberts and Payton's contract without sending some contract back the other way. That might be what the hold up has been up to this point. Baltimore might be requiring the Cubs to take Payton or one of their other bad contracts along with Roberts and trying not to take any contract back. But Marquis is probably more valuable to the Orioles than Payton would be.

 

Payton has basically zero value considering how much he makes.