MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[DeuceBaseman]

that last at-bat of the year, eh?

 

I'll give you THREE at-bats, all in the same game! YOU READY?

 

AB #1:

 

Pitch 1: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

AB #2:

 

Pitch 1: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

AB #3:

 

Pitch 1: Foul

Pitch 2: Foul

PItch 3: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

 

See, wasn't that fun?

 

Yeah it was fun. Now were they all solo shots? I'm sure they were. If he was batting 5th then those 3 HR's would probably net him 7 RBI that game. Instead he probably got 4.

 

You're completely missing the point. He wouldn't have had three homeruns because he probably wouldn't have seen those three fastballs and would more likely seen more crap he couldn't drive. With men on base pitchers can pitch him much more carefully. (EDIT: Because they know they have Soto, Theriot, Pie, etc. coming up next) When he leads off - and when he bats in front of the pitcher, #9 and #8 a pitcher can go right at him because he's not worried about him driving a three-run shot out of the park.

 

 

OR when a pitcher sees Soriano up with runners on base he might pitch him less carefully being afraid to walk him and putting more people on base. And Soto up next will prove to be huge cuz that guy is going to be a monster this year. And if theres 2 outs and no one on, then the pitcher might pitch him very carefully so he doesnt hit a solo HR, and hope Soriano swings at misses at a bunch of balls in the dirt like he always does. There are arguments for both. I just think he would be way more valuable in the 5 hole.

[Derwood]

in his 3 HR game, Soriano lead off twice (1st and 4th inning) and hit 2nd in the 2nd (his second HR).

 

Now when he hits leadoff HR's, your #2 hitter is essentially leading off, as there are still 0 on, 0 out. Felix Pie was batting 2nd that day and struck out on a wild pitch in the 1st (reached 1st), and struckout looking in the 4th.

 

not sure what my point is, just looking at the game log.

 

Oh, and 6 of our 9 "leadoff hitters" reached in that game.

[DeuceBaseman]

in his 3 HR game, Soriano lead off twice (1st and 4th inning) and hit 2nd in the 2nd (his second HR).

 

Now when he hits leadoff HR's, your #2 hitter is essentially leading off, as there are still 0 on, 0 out. Felix Pie was batting 2nd that day and struck out on a wild pitch in the 1st (reached 1st), and struckout looking in the 4th.

 

not sure what my point is, just looking at the game log.

 

Oh, and 6 of our 9 "leadoff hitters" reached in that game.

 

Yeah I looked at it too, he had 3 solo HR's.

[David]

 

Roberts isn't being acquired just because he is a leadoff hitter. That is one reason and its a big one, but there are many more. We need a guy who gets on base and steals bases, we really dont have any guys who get on base at a high rate and steal bases. He plays good defense, he can bat from both sides of the plate, he is a smart player and a good leader. He is what this team needs. He compliments the other players very well. DeRosa is a great player and I would like to see him play SS if we got Roberts, but I think Roberts is much more needed on this team than DeRosa (whom would still have a big role).

 

Base-stealing is overrated. Granted, Roberts does it at a good enough success rate that he's actually making an offensive contribution by doing it; he's very good at it and is one of the rare examples of someone whose base-stealing ability is actually helpful. That said, that doesn't mean we need it. Teams don't need speed or base-stealers. It's a luxury that's nice to have if all other needs are filled adequately.

[C.C.]

FWIW, I don't completely dismiss the possibility that Soriano is uncomfortable anywhere but #1 in the batting order and that his own confidence affects his ability to hit. I just don't think that it's necessarily the most likely explanation for the splits, and obviously, I don't think it should be assumed that it is.

 

A lot of people just take the idea that Soriano can't hit anywhere else in the lineup as truth.

 

I think it's a lame excuse. Give the guy enough AB's in a different spot in the lineup and he'll get comfortable. If he had his way he'd still be a second basemen. Players don't like change...Nothing new here. He'll be fine if he's not leading off.

[ThePenguin11]

that last at-bat of the year, eh?

 

I'll give you THREE at-bats, all in the same game! YOU READY?

 

AB #1:

 

Pitch 1: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

AB #2:

 

Pitch 1: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

AB #3:

 

Pitch 1: Foul

Pitch 2: Foul

PItch 3: Ball in Play - Home Run

 

 

See, wasn't that fun?

 

Yeah it was fun. Now were they all solo shots? I'm sure they were. If he was batting 5th then those 3 HR's would probably net him 7 RBI that game. Instead he probably got 4.

 

You're completely missing the point. He wouldn't have had three homeruns because he probably wouldn't have seen those three fastballs and would more likely seen more crap he couldn't drive. With men on base pitchers can pitch him much more carefully. (EDIT: Because they know they have Soto, Theriot, Pie, etc. coming up next) When he leads off - and when he bats in front of the pitcher, #9 and #8 a pitcher can go right at him because he's not worried about him driving a three-run shot out of the park.

 

 

OR when a pitcher sees Soriano up with runners on base he might pitch him less carefully being afraid to walk him and putting more people on base. And Soto up next will prove to be huge cuz that guy is going to be a monster this year. And if theres 2 outs and no one on, then the pitcher might pitch him very carefully so he doesnt hit a solo HR, and hope Soriano swings at misses at a bunch of balls in the dirt like he always does. There are arguments for both. I just think he would be way more valuable in the 5 hole.

 

Are you talking about the Alfonso Soriano who strikes out 130 times and walks 30 times? Pitchers are worried about walking him?

[DeuceBaseman]

 

Roberts isn't being acquired just because he is a leadoff hitter. That is one reason and its a big one, but there are many more. We need a guy who gets on base and steals bases, we really dont have any guys who get on base at a high rate and steal bases. He plays good defense, he can bat from both sides of the plate, he is a smart player and a good leader. He is what this team needs. He compliments the other players very well. DeRosa is a great player and I would like to see him play SS if we got Roberts, but I think Roberts is much more needed on this team than DeRosa (whom would still have a big role).

 

Base-stealing is overrated. Granted, Roberts does it at a good enough success rate that he's actually making an offensive contribution by doing it; he's very good at it and is one of the rare examples of someone whose base-stealing ability is actually helpful. That said, that doesn't mean we need it. Teams don't need speed or base-stealers. It's a luxury that's nice to have if all other needs are filled adequately.

 

I agree that speed is a luxury not a need, but you can do SOOO much more when you have speed. It changes the game. You can do so much more when you have a solid 1-2 in the batting order. And that is what Roberts and Fukudome would give you.

[Shawon12]

keep up the fight., Duece.

 

There is a silent majority of baseball people on our site who understand the difference between fielding a fantasy line up versus once that actually has to play defense and react to the mental aspects of the game. These factors contribute equally if not greater to a team winning games. However, the vocal group here is what makes this site so entertaining.

 

As you've seen, some people here attack conventional baseball thinking for the sake of "fitting in" The reality is, people on the extreme side of either position are most likely blinded.

[David]

FWIW, I don't completely dismiss the possibility that Soriano is uncomfortable anywhere but #1 in the batting order and that his own confidence affects his ability to hit. I just don't think that it's necessarily the most likely explanation for the splits, and obviously, I don't think it should be assumed that it is.

 

A lot of people just take the idea that Soriano can't hit anywhere else in the lineup as truth.

 

I think it's a lame excuse. Give the guy enough AB's in a different spot in the lineup and he'll get comfortable. If he had his way he'd still be a second basemen. Players don't like change...Nothing new here. He'll be fine out of the leadoff spot.

 

Yep. Going into 2006, he wasn't comfortable anywhere but 2B. Then in 2007, after we tried him out in CF, we moved him to LF, because he was more comfortable there. I felt like the leg injury was convenient excuse to move him back. Once he started hitting, there was no way they'd move him again. This year he should be 100%, but him playing LF is set in stone.

[DeuceBaseman]

Are you talking about the Alfonso Soriano who strikes out 130 times and walks 30 times? Pitchers are worried about walking him?

 

Well that's your argument for why as a leadoff hitter he gets more pitches to hit. If they werent afraid to walk him then they would just throw balls in the dirt all day no matter what order he is batting.

[pitchcs]

FWIW, I don't completely dismiss the possibility that Soriano is uncomfortable anywhere but #1 in the batting order and that his own confidence affects his ability to hit. I just don't think that it's necessarily the most likely explanation for the splits, and obviously, I don't think it should be assumed that it is.

 

A lot of people just take the idea that Soriano can't hit anywhere else in the lineup as truth.

 

I think it's a lame excuse. Give the guy enough AB's in a different spot in the lineup and he'll get comfortable. If he had his way he'd still be a second basemen. Players don't like change...Nothing new here. He'll be fine if he's not leading off.

 

 

I completely agree CC. Totally lame excuse. Not so much lame on Soriano's part because I'm sure he's not 'whining' about it, just the thought that players only hit well where they feel comfortable is lame reasoning.

[ThePenguin11]

in his 3 HR game, Soriano lead off twice (1st and 4th inning) and hit 2nd in the 2nd (his second HR).

 

Now when he hits leadoff HR's, your #2 hitter is essentially leading off, as there are still 0 on, 0 out. Felix Pie was batting 2nd that day and struck out on a wild pitch in the 1st (reached 1st), and struckout looking in the 4th.

 

not sure what my point is, just looking at the game log.

 

Oh, and 6 of our 9 "leadoff hitters" reached in that game.

 

Conversely, it's very likely he may have had 0 total home runs in the same game because he had no lineup protection. The whole point is that he needs to be protected in the lineup. It's not some myth that players need to be protected in a lineup. It's not mental makeup. The guy just doesn't get challenged as much when he has really good hitters batting behind him.

[Chocolate Milk]

keep up the fight., Duece.

 

There is a silent majority of baseball people on our site who understand the difference between fielding a fantasy line up versus once that actually has to play defense and react to the mental aspects of the game. These factors contribute equally if not greater to a team winning games. However, the vocal group here is what makes this site so entertaining.

 

As you've seen, some people here attack conventional baseball thinking for the sake of "fitting in" The reality is, people on the extreme side of either position are most likely blinded.

 

The bolded is a load of crap and does not meaningfully contribute to this discussion in any way.

[fromthestretch]

Roberts isn't being acquired just because he is a leadoff hitter. That is one reason and its a big one, but there are many more.

 

It shouldn't be a big reason.

 

We need a guy who gets on base and steals bases, we really dont have any guys who get on base at a high rate and steal bases. He plays good defense, he can bat from both sides of the plate, he is a smart player and a good leader. He is what this team needs. He compliments the other players very well.

 

And absolutely none of that has anything to do with batting leadoff. I'm going to disagree that this team is desperate for stolen bases, but that's not the point of this. If his skills make the Cubs a better team, then they should try to acquire him. But it shouldn't be because they feel there is a void at the top of the lineup.

 

Let me ask you this...if there was a solid defensive shortstop available that was a .330/.485 hitter and maybe stole five bases a year (not your definition of a leadoff hitter), would you still prefer that the Cubs pursue Roberts instead?

[CubColtPacer]

FWIW, I don't completely dismiss the possibility that Soriano is uncomfortable anywhere but #1 in the batting order and that his own confidence affects his ability to hit. I just don't think that it's necessarily the most likely explanation for the splits, and obviously, I don't think it should be assumed that it is.

 

A lot of people just take the idea that Soriano can't hit anywhere else in the lineup as truth.

 

I think it's a lame excuse. Give the guy enough AB's in a different spot in the lineup and he'll get comfortable. If he had his way he'd still be a second basemen. Players don't like change...Nothing new here. He'll be fine if he's not leading off.

 

The difference is that he had never moved away from second before. He has spent multiple years outside the leadoff spot. How many AB's does it take?

 

I don't think the Soriano leadoff thing can be proven conclusively either way. The stats show that he has been better at leadoff, better still when leading off an inning, and better with nobody on base. At the same time, there are other factors in Texas that could have caused the problems when Soriano was hitting lower in the order.

As long as there is a significant question though, the Cubs should keep him there unless they find great options for both the #1 and #2 spots. Roberts/Theriot, which would be the Cubs most likely option if the trade for Roberts went through, doesn't cut it. The benefit of him moving down and Theriot moving up is minimal, and actually probably makes run production worse. The risk that it might be a problem is high. There's just no point in taking the risk for such little benefit.

[ThePenguin11]

FWIW, I don't completely dismiss the possibility that Soriano is uncomfortable anywhere but #1 in the batting order and that his own confidence affects his ability to hit. I just don't think that it's necessarily the most likely explanation for the splits, and obviously, I don't think it should be assumed that it is.

 

A lot of people just take the idea that Soriano can't hit anywhere else in the lineup as truth.

 

I think it's a lame excuse. Give the guy enough AB's in a different spot in the lineup and he'll get comfortable. If he had his way he'd still be a second basemen. Players don't like change...Nothing new here. He'll be fine if he's not leading off.

 

It's not about getting comfortable. It's about him being a flawed hitter. He's a fastball hitter. He takes advantage of pitcher's mistakes. He will see far less mistake fastballs left over the plate if he's batting behind the heart of the order.

 

Does anyone have statistics broken down by pitch-type sorted year-to-year and by lineup position. I'm sure the stats will bear out that he sees more breaking balls and hits less home runs down in the order. Furthermore you'll see that he sees more fastballs at the top of the order.

[Ryno12]

keep up the fight., Duece.

 

There is a silent majority of baseball people on our site who understand the difference between fielding a fantasy line up versus once that actually has to play defense and react to the mental aspects of the game. These factors contribute equally if not greater to a team winning games. However, the vocal group here is what makes this site so entertaining.

 

As you've seen, some people here attack conventional baseball thinking for the sake of "fitting in" The reality is, people on the extreme side of either position are most likely blinded.

 

The bolded is a load of crap and does not meaningfully contribute to this discussion in any way.

 

x2

[DeuceBaseman]

Conversely, it's very likely he may have had 0 total home runs in the same game because he had no lineup protection. The whole point is that he needs to be protected in the lineup. It's not some myth that players need to be protected in a lineup. It's not mental makeup. The guy just doesn't get challenged as much when he has really good hitters batting behind him.

 

I agree, no one knows if he would have still hit 3 HR's in the 5 hole, and I agree that he needs protection behind him, but that is why Geovany Soto will be there. This guy will prove to be a monster behind Soriano. In my opinion Soto will hit 25-30 HR's and bat .300. This is good protection for him.

[David]

keep up the fight., Duece.

 

There is a silent majority of baseball people on our site who understand the difference between fielding a fantasy line up versus once that actually has to play defense and react to the mental aspects of the game. These factors contribute equally if not greater to a team winning games. However, the vocal group here is what makes this site so entertaining.

 

As you've seen, some people here attack conventional baseball thinking for the sake of "fitting in" The reality is, people on the extreme side of either position are most likely blinded.

 

The bolded is a load of crap and does not meaningfully contribute to this discussion in any way.

 

I especially like the implication that "play[ing] defense and react[ing] to the mental aspects of the game" might contribute more to winning games than the evil pitching and hitting stats people focus on.

[SCCubbieFAN]

Does anyone have any stats on how many times Soriano lead off an inning when he batted in the #1 spot at the beginning of the game? I don't necessarily like him hitting in the #1 spot, but doing so doesn't necessarily mean he's leading off all that much, or does it?

[David]

Conversely, it's very likely he may have had 0 total home runs in the same game because he had no lineup protection. The whole point is that he needs to be protected in the lineup. It's not some myth that players need to be protected in a lineup. It's not mental makeup. The guy just doesn't get challenged as much when he has really good hitters batting behind him.

 

I agree, no one knows if he would have still hit 3 HR's in the 5 hole, and I agree that he needs protection behind him, but that is why Geovany Soto will be there. This guy will prove to be a monster behind Soriano. In my opinion Soto will hit 25-30 HR's and bat .300. This is good protection for him.

 

I'm as optimistic about Soto as anyone, but I think that's a bit much to expect from him. Don't get me wrong. I'd LOVE to see him do it. That type of production over what we had last year from catcher would likely be enough alone to propel us over the 90 win mark.

 

I'd say .275/.350/.475 (maybe 15-20 HR) would be a more reasonable "optimistic" expectation of Geo.

[C.C.]

FWIW, I don't completely dismiss the possibility that Soriano is uncomfortable anywhere but #1 in the batting order and that his own confidence affects his ability to hit. I just don't think that it's necessarily the most likely explanation for the splits, and obviously, I don't think it should be assumed that it is.

 

A lot of people just take the idea that Soriano can't hit anywhere else in the lineup as truth.

 

I think it's a lame excuse. Give the guy enough AB's in a different spot in the lineup and he'll get comfortable. If he had his way he'd still be a second basemen. Players don't like change...Nothing new here. He'll be fine if he's not leading off.

 

The difference is that he had never moved away from second before. He has spent multiple years outside the leadoff spot. How many AB's does it take?

 

I don't think the Soriano leadoff thing can be proven conclusively either way. The stats show that he has been better at leadoff, better still when leading off an inning, and better with nobody on base. At the same time, there are other factors in Texas that could have caused the problems when Soriano was hitting lower in the order.

As long as there is a significant question though, the Cubs should keep him there unless they find great options for both the #1 and #2 spots. Roberts/Theriot, which would be the Cubs most likely option if the trade for Roberts went through, doesn't cut it. The benefit of him moving down and Theriot moving up is minimal, and actually probably makes run production worse. The risk that it might be a problem is high. There's just no point in taking the risk for such little benefit.

 

 

I agree. If they don't get Roberts or a "prototypical" lead-off hitter then just keep him there.

[Burtonbell]

Conversely, it's very likely he may have had 0 total home runs in the same game because he had no lineup protection. The whole point is that he needs to be protected in the lineup. It's not some myth that players need to be protected in a lineup. It's not mental makeup. The guy just doesn't get challenged as much when he has really good hitters batting behind him.

 

I agree, no one knows if he would have still hit 3 HR's in the 5 hole, and I agree that he needs protection behind him, but that is why Geovany Soto will be there. This guy will prove to be a monster behind Soriano. In my opinion Soto will hit 25-30 HR's and bat .300. This is good protection for him.

 

I hope that's what happens. But I would rather Soriano have the protection of Roberts, Lee, Fukudome, and Aram, than Soto, Pie, Cedeno, Pitcher...

[DeuceBaseman]

Roberts isn't being acquired just because he is a leadoff hitter. That is one reason and its a big one, but there are many more.

 

It shouldn't be a big reason.

 

We need a guy who gets on base and steals bases, we really dont have any guys who get on base at a high rate and steal bases. He plays good defense, he can bat from both sides of the plate, he is a smart player and a good leader. He is what this team needs. He compliments the other players very well.

 

And absolutely none of that has anything to do with batting leadoff. I'm going to disagree that this team is desperate for stolen bases, but that's not the point of this. If his skills make the Cubs a better team, then they should try to acquire him. But it shouldn't be because they feel there is a void at the top of the lineup.

 

Let me ask you this...if there was a solid defensive shortstop available that was a .330/.485 hitter and maybe stole five bases a year (not your definition of a leadoff hitter), would you still prefer that the Cubs pursue Roberts instead?

 

No, your point is ridiculous and has nothing to do with this argument. Some of the qualities listed above like playing good D and switch hitting has nothing to do with leadoff, but that is why I said he is being pursued for other reasons besides just a leadoff hitter. He is a great player, and he fits our team needs, and one of them is a leadoff hitter. If there was a solid SS like that, then of course I would rather have the Cubs get that guy because that guy obviously puts up better numbers than Roberts and plays a position where we need more help at. But the thing is, that guy doesnt exist or isnt available. And if he were, then he would cost a lot more than Roberts would cost. I just want to make this team better. I think we can upgrade at SS, I think we can upgrade at the leadoff spot in the order by moving Soriano down, I think we can upgrade in the starting rotation. The 1 guy who I think would help us the most would be a Jose Reyes.

[C.C.]

Conversely, it's very likely he may have had 0 total home runs in the same game because he had no lineup protection. The whole point is that he needs to be protected in the lineup. It's not some myth that players need to be protected in a lineup. It's not mental makeup. The guy just doesn't get challenged as much when he has really good hitters batting behind him.

 

I agree, no one knows if he would have still hit 3 HR's in the 5 hole, and I agree that he needs protection behind him, but that is why Geovany Soto will be there. This guy will prove to be a monster behind Soriano. In my opinion Soto will hit 25-30 HR's and bat .300. This is good protection for him.

 

I'm as optimistic about Soto as anyone, but I think that's a bit much to expect from him. Don't get me wrong. I'd LOVE to see him do it. That type of production over what we had last year from catcher would likely be enough alone to propel us over the 90 win mark.

 

I'd say .275/.350/.475 (maybe 15-20 HR) would be a more reasonable "optimistic" expectation of Geo.

 

I'd be thrilled as hell if he even sniffed that.