Bruce Chimes In

[SouthSideRyan]

I'll take 8 really slow guys who draw lots walks, hit lots of home runs, and mock managers for calling bunts and hit-and-runs.

 

You'd lose a lot of games with those guys in the field.

 

There's a lot more to effective defense than speed. Positioning, good routes, good glove work, throwing arm strength, and reaction time are pretty integral to good defense, too. Speed helps, sure, but it's not the most important facet of the game.

 

Perhaps I'm stereotyping but can you recall any slow guy who primarily walked and hit HRs who was good defensively anywhere up the middle? Maybe it'd work for catcher, but usually the tradeoff to big slow lumbering Three True Outcome guys is that they're barely passable in 1B/RF.

[Guest]

I'll take 8 really slow guys who draw lots walks, hit lots of home runs, and mock managers for calling bunts and hit-and-runs.

 

You'd lose a lot of games with those guys in the field.

 

There's a lot more to effective defense than speed. Positioning, good routes, good glove work, throwing arm strength, and reaction time are pretty integral to good defense, too. Speed helps, sure, but it's not the most important facet of the game.

 

Perhaps I'm stereotyping but can you recall any slow guy who primarily walked and hit HRs who was good defensively anywhere up the middle? Maybe it'd work for catcher, but usually the tradeoff to big slow lumbering Three True Outcome guys is that they're barely passable in 1B/RF.

 

Nick Swisher.

[haltz]

Nick Swisher.

I don't think he's much of a CF.

 

You aren't going to come up with a whole lot of guys that are slow at SS, 2B or CF. Arbitrarily (it's late, I just made up the criteria obviously which may not be any good) setting some bounds on BRefPI, and realizing that all these players aren't exactly TTO guys in the strictest sense, we get some names like this:

 

CF: Dale Murphy, Jim Edmonds, Andruw Jones, Gorman Thomas, Mickey Mantle, Duke Snider, Lance Berkman (1 season)

2B: Jeff Kent (1 season), Jay Bell (1 season)

SS: ARod (1 season)

 

[K > 100, BB > 70, PA > 502, SB < 12, HR > 25 (293 total player seasons)]

 

So, not so much with the middle infielders, but you've got some of the better CF seasons of all-time represented there. 28 CF seasons total and 3 middle infield seasons.

 

If we take the Ks down to 80 and let guys steal bases, we get a list of 12 middle infielders. A-Rod (4 times) and Kent (twice) are the only players that show up more than once. Lopes, Sandberg, Ripken, Bell, D Johnson, and Alfonzo show up once apiece. This gives us 603 seasons total, of which CF make up 74. But this is an even looser interpretation of what you all are talking about, I guess.

[Rob]

I'll take 8 really slow guys who draw lots walks, hit lots of home runs, and mock managers for calling bunts and hit-and-runs.

 

You'd lose a lot of games with those guys in the field.

 

You'd win more than enough to cover the gap with their performance at the plate.

[Magnetic Curses]

In many ways, Beane does not agree with the sabermetric community. The saber community would say that there are certain ways to construct a team that will be most effective. To Beane, it's all about the dollar. If the parts are undervalued, he'd happily take any of a high OBP offense, a high power offense, a great defensive team, or a heavy speed team. It really doesn't matter to him.

 

what beane says and what he does are two completely different things.

 

the whole point of moneyball IS in fact, exploiting market trends. however, beane exploited conventional wisdom and it's adherents for undervaluing a crucial part of the game.

 

speed has little importance when compared with obp, and it's hard to exploit something that is nothing if not overvalued (it can't be undervalued, it simply can't).

 

i would venture a guess that there will never be another "moneyball"-type situation where such a vitally important statistic such as obp is so undervalued.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'll take 8 really slow guys who draw lots walks, hit lots of home runs, and mock managers for calling bunts and hit-and-runs.

 

You'd lose a lot of games with those guys in the field.

 

You'd win more than enough to cover the gap with their performance at the plate.

 

Depends on what he means by "lots"

[jersey cubs fan]

The Bruce chimes rings again

 

Even after making the 2007 playoffs, the Cubs still have major questions to answer and some holes to fill. To wit:

 

• How does the organization obtain a power-hitting right fielder?

 

• Do the Cubs still believe Alfonso Soriano is a bona fide leadoff man?

 

• Is Ryan Theriot the everyday shortstop next year?

 

• Does Hendry feel he needs to add a starting pitcher?

 

• Is Felix Pie the center fielder on Opening Day 2008?

 

Bruce thinks they'll be some trades, and that Jones may be shopped, while the Cubs could look for a backup, as opposed to a replacement for Ryan Theriot. If they can find a LH hitting SS who can provide some offense, it's possible the two players could combine for adequate production. But I don't believe that Theriot just needs rest to make his numbers better.

[nilodnayr]

The Bruce chimes rings again

 

Even after making the 2007 playoffs, the Cubs still have major questions to answer and some holes to fill. To wit:

 

• How does the organization obtain a power-hitting right fielder?

 

• Do the Cubs still believe Alfonso Soriano is a bona fide leadoff man?

 

• Is Ryan Theriot the everyday shortstop next year?

 

• Does Hendry feel he needs to add a starting pitcher?

 

• Is Felix Pie the center fielder on Opening Day 2008?

 

Bruce thinks they'll be some trades, and that Jones may be shopped, while the Cubs could look for a backup, as opposed to a replacement for Ryan Theriot. If they can find a LH hitting SS who can provide some offense, it's possible the two players could combine for adequate production. But I don't believe that Theriot just needs rest to make his numbers better.

 

Well that doesn't sound very promising.

[jersey cubs fan]

He also referenced a LH hitting bat in the middle of the lineup. While it would no doubt be nice to have a bat like Dunn's in the middle of the order, the Cubs have to realize their biggest struggles were against LHP. They were a much better hitting team against RHP than LHP, and that's been an issue for a few years. They need to focus on getting bats though, not necessarily a guy who hits from one side of the other. Production is what matters, not L or R.

[treebird]

i shudder to think of what a guy who is supposed to be a backup to ryan theriot is going to look like

[Ding Dong Johnson]

i shudder to think of what a guy who is supposed to be a backup to ryan theriot is going to look like

 

http://alesrarus.funkydung.com/images/troll.jpg

[nilodnayr]

i shudder to think of what a guy who is supposed to be a backup to ryan theriot is going to look like

 

This

[NCCubFan]

Or this.

[Rob]

I wonder if Bruce would chime in on the question of whether or not we tender Prior a contract?

[RynoRules]

You can kill two birds with one stone by acquiring a stud RFer. If you do that, Theriot's bat is less of a problem, IMO.

 

And I also think we need another starter, and have been saying so for a while. Problem is that we need a hitter more and who knows how much we have to spend?

[Bruce Miles]

I wonder if Bruce would chime in on the question of whether or not we tender Prior a contract?

 

I'm told they "still have some work to do" on that.

[rawaction]

I wonder if Bruce would chime in on the question of whether or not we tender Prior a contract?

 

I'm told they "still have some work to do" on that.

 

I don't know why. I don't understand how the team can pay Dempster and Wade Miller to rehab when they had about 1/200 of the upside that Prior has.

[CubColtPacer]

I wonder if Bruce would chime in on the question of whether or not we tender Prior a contract?

 

I'm told they "still have some work to do" on that.

 

I don't know why. I don't understand how the team can pay Dempster and Wade Miller to rehab when they had about 1/200 of the upside that Prior has.

 

The situations are a little different. Dempster and Miller were paid less than Prior will be (Miller got 1 million, and Dempster got 1.5 maybe??, while Prior gets 3 mininum).

Also, Dempster and Miller were signed in January when the free agent season was basically over. The team knew that their money was already spent, and so there was no reason to not take a risk with whatever leftover money was spent. The decision on Prior has to be made before that when the team doesn't really know how much money they are going to spend in free agency. They won't know at the time if signing Prior will keep them from having the money to sign somebody, while in Dempster and Miller's case they knew they weren't getting anybody else.

 

I'm not saying the Cubs shouldn't tender Prior a contract, but there definitely are significant differences between the situations beyond the fact that Prior has much more upside.

[anabiono]

it will be sad if prior goes somewhere else...but if he does, i just pray that it is to the AL *cough* rays *cough*

[Guest]

I wonder if Bruce would chime in on the question of whether or not we tender Prior a contract?

 

I'm told they "still have some work to do" on that.

 

Well they better get that work done.

[Derwood]

it will be sad if prior goes somewhere else...but if he does, i just pray that it is to the AL *cough* rays *cough*

 

or Japan

[UK1679666180]

it will be sad if prior goes somewhere else...but if he does, i just pray that it is to the AL *cough* rays *cough*

 

Me too.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I wonder if Bruce would chime in on the question of whether or not we tender Prior a contract?

 

I'm told they "still have some work to do" on that.

 

I don't know why. I don't understand how the team can pay Dempster and Wade Miller to rehab when they had about 1/200 of the upside that Prior has.

 

My guess is the Cubs want to be certain that they don't rehab Prior, he returns in August, and then walks as a FA. My feeling is they don't want to pay him three million to rehab and then leave. The work could be convincing Prior to take a deal with a team option for 2009.

[Guest]

I wonder if Bruce would chime in on the question of whether or not we tender Prior a contract?

 

I'm told they "still have some work to do" on that.

 

I don't know why. I don't understand how the team can pay Dempster and Wade Miller to rehab when they had about 1/200 of the upside that Prior has.

It could be that they're trying to negotiate a sub-mandatory offer with Mark.

[Bruce Miles]

I wonder if Bruce would chime in on the question of whether or not we tender Prior a contract?

 

I'm told they "still have some work to do" on that.

 

I don't know why. I don't understand how the team can pay Dempster and Wade Miller to rehab when they had about 1/200 of the upside that Prior has.

It could be that they're trying to negotiate a sub-mandatory offer with Mark.

 

What they could do is agree to non-tender him and then sign him as a free agent the day after the non-tender deadline. This is exactly when they did with Barrett in December of 2003 after they traded for him.