Is Rich Hill better or worse than he seems?

[badnews]

The good of Rich Hill:

 

His Opponent OPS puts him near some elite pitchers. He's within 15 points of Brad Penny, C. C. Sabathia, Cole Hamels, John Lackey, and within 10 points of Dan Haren, Aaron Harang, and Wang. He's within two points of Ted Lilly and he's better than Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano, Javier Vazquez, Scott Kazmir, and Buehrle.

 

He's 6th in the majors in BAA, 3rd in the NL in BAA.

 

He's 12th in the majors in K/9, ranked ahead of Sabathia and Verlander. Among lefthanders, he ranks 5th, behind Erik Bedard, Scott Kazmir, Johan Santana, and Cole Hamels. A formidable list! But among the 11 pitchers ahead of him, only John Smoltz averages fewer P/PA.

 

The bad:

 

He seems to be able to turn a good outing into a bad one faster than anyone. Because of this, his quality start percentage is really low for a pitcher possessing the numbers illustrated in the "good" section. His QS % ranks below Gil Meche, Bronson Arroyo, Carlos Silva, Livan Hernandez (?!), Jamie Moyer (!!!), Miguel Batista, Jeff Francis, and Jarrod Washburn.

 

He doesn't seem like much of an innings eater.

 

He's got baseball's ugliest pick-off move.

 

Some people claim his poor body language, impressive K/9 and WHIP but low win totals make him the new Matt Clement, a guy who pitches awful when he gets runs and pitches well when he doesn't.

 

So what do you guys think?

[NewUserName]

I think if he had league average run support he would seem really good.

[CyHawk_Cub]

I think if he had league average run support he would seem really good.

 

QFT. If Rich can put up those types of peripheral numbers, it's safe to say we would all be happy to see him on the bump every 5th day.

[TruffleShuffle]

other things you can tack onto the "bad":

 

-he gives up a lot of home runs, and given his repertoire, this probably isn't going to change

 

-he doesn't help himself much outside of the pitching - he's a lousy fielder, lousy bunter, lousy hitter and isn't good at holding runners

 

 

That said, his positives far outweigh the negatives, and I'm happy with the year he had.

[UK1679666180]

He had 15 outing where he put them in a position to win, 3 he kept them in the game, and 13 in a position to lose.

[Peoriaman]

Depends how he "seems" to you.

[Outshined_One]

Considering this was his first full season in the majors, I'm willing to bet he has a pretty good future ahead of him.

[Vinestal]

I heard a sound byte today with Lou saying that they plan on using Rich as the 3rd starter in the playoffs. That being said how does everyone feel about our chances with him on the mound against Arizona? I know its not a sure thing that we play the Diamondbacks but that seems the most likely senario. What are his numbers against the D-backs?

[shnsajax]

I heard a sound byte today with Lou saying that they plan on using Rich as the 3rd starter in the playoffs. That being said how does everyone feel about our chances with him on the mound against Arizona? I know its not a sure thing that we play the Diamondbacks but that seems the most likely senario. What are his numbers against the D-backs?

 

I'm fine with it, simply because he will be on a very short leash if he is not on. However if he is on it could be a great thing against them. Arizona doesn't score a whole lot of runs they are 28th in BA and OBP, and 15th in K's. You just have to be ready to pull him at any point of the game.

[NewUserName]

I heard a sound byte today with Lou saying that they plan on using Rich as the 3rd starter in the playoffs. That being said how does everyone feel about our chances with him on the mound against Arizona? I know its not a sure thing that we play the Diamondbacks but that seems the most likely senario. What are his numbers against the D-backs?

 

I'm fine with it, simply because he will be on a very short leash if he is not on. However if he is on it could be a great thing against them. Arizona doesn't score a whole lot of runs they are 28th in BA and OBP, and 15th in K's. You just have to be ready to pull him at any point of the game.

 

 

I'm fine with that as long as Zambrano is on the same short leash. He has been much more inconsistent. He has not pitched his way out of trouble very well. He has no previous playoff success.

[Skyballer]

R. Hill is a very good PITCHER. However, R. Hill is not a good baseball player-that being said he's a pitcher above all else and his good definitely outweighs the bad.

[Irrelevant Dude]

I heard a sound byte today with Lou saying that they plan on using Rich as the 3rd starter in the playoffs. That being said how does everyone feel about our chances with him on the mound against Arizona? I know its not a sure thing that we play the Diamondbacks but that seems the most likely senario. What are his numbers against the D-backs?

Yesterday on the radio, someone mentioned an interesting "bait and switch" playoff scenario using Marquis and Hill. I don't think a team would ever do it, but possibly start Marquis to get the opponent to put their left handed hitters in the lineup, then remove him very early in favor of Hill. We would lose our long reliever, but the opponent would have to choose whether to let their lefties face Hill or pinch hit for them and lose them for the game. Like I said, I doubt this would ever happen, but it would be a very interesting strategic move.

[CuseCubFan69]

Does Hill ever use a snap throw over to first?

[bhogg]

I heard a sound byte today with Lou saying that they plan on using Rich as the 3rd starter in the playoffs. That being said how does everyone feel about our chances with him on the mound against Arizona? I know its not a sure thing that we play the Diamondbacks but that seems the most likely senario. What are his numbers against the D-backs?

 

I'm fine with it, simply because he will be on a very short leash if he is not on. However if he is on it could be a great thing against them. Arizona doesn't score a whole lot of runs they are 28th in BA and OBP, and 15th in K's. You just have to be ready to pull him at any point of the game.

 

 

I'm fine with that as long as Zambrano is on the same short leash. He has been much more inconsistent. He has not pitched his way out of trouble very well. He has no previous playoff success.

 

 

 

Zambrano has playoff experience.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

He's got baseball's ugliest pick-off move.

 

link?

[abuck1220]

I heard a sound byte today with Lou saying that they plan on using Rich as the 3rd starter in the playoffs. That being said how does everyone feel about our chances with him on the mound against Arizona? I know its not a sure thing that we play the Diamondbacks but that seems the most likely senario. What are his numbers against the D-backs?

 

I'm fine with it, simply because he will be on a very short leash if he is not on. However if he is on it could be a great thing against them. Arizona doesn't score a whole lot of runs they are 28th in BA and OBP, and 15th in K's. You just have to be ready to pull him at any point of the game.

 

 

I'm fine with that as long as Zambrano is on the same short leash. He has been much more inconsistent. He has not pitched his way out of trouble very well. He has no previous playoff success.

 

Zambrano has playoff experience.

 

yeah, but he's been terrible.

[MPrior]

Disclaimer #1: this is mostly pure speculation.

Disclaimer #2: Rich Hill is one of my favorite players.

 

Rich Hill has made it clear through post-game interviews and the like that the mental aspect of pitching is hugely important to him - and it seems like he can lose confidence fairly easily. That could help account for his low QS% and high ERA relative to his peripheral stats.

 

I admire him a lot for recognizing that the mental aspect is important for him, and taking strides to fix it - he's talked a lot about sports psychology books that he's used, and a positive mental approach, etc.

 

Basically, I think he's very good, and he's got a bright future ahead of him. I'm glad we've got him.

[nobull]

He had 15 outing where he put them in a position to win, 3 he kept them in the game, and 13 in a position to lose.

 

he had 19 starts where allowed under 4 earned runs

8 starts with er over 4 runs

3 at 4 runs.

 

If he can go out there in give the cubs a game of 6 inning and less then 4 runs. That is good enough to win.

[UK1679666180]

He had 15 outing where he put them in a position to win, 3 he kept them in the game, and 13 in a position to lose.

 

he had 19 starts where allowed under 4 earned runs

8 starts with er over 4 runs

3 at 4 runs.

 

If he can go out there in give the cubs a game of 6 inning and less then 4 runs. That is good enough to win.

 

A game of 6/3 is a quality start, but it's not really putting your team in a position to win, moreso he's keeping them in the game.

 

Especially in the playoffs, if that was against Webb, the Cubs would likely lose if he gives up 6/3, we'll see about Owings.

[nobull]

He had 15 outing where he put them in a position to win, 3 he kept them in the game, and 13 in a position to lose.

 

he had 19 starts where allowed under 4 earned runs

8 starts with er over 4 runs

3 at 4 runs.

 

If he can go out there in give the cubs a game of 6 inning and less then 4 runs. That is good enough to win.

 

A game of 6/3 is a quality start, but it's not really putting your team in a position to win, moreso he's keeping them in the game.

 

Especially in the playoffs, if that was against Webb, the Cubs would likely lose if he gives up 6/3, we'll see about Owings.

So what webb probably wins anyway. Webb is an Ace. Hill would probably be arz 2nd best starter. He is pitching once. I am not using the quality start format for two reason. The most I expect is 6 innings short of him dominating them. 5 inning with 3 runs allowed should give the cubs a chance.

 

I expect Z and Lilly to win this series for the cubs if they can. Hill is still the better then anyone not named webb,z,or Lilly.