Marquis - Sacrificial Lamb, Again?

[Soriano12]

Marquis will go 8 innings tomorrow, yielding the only run in a 1-0 loss

 

close.

[Cubfanintheknow]

Looks like the Brewers were the sacrificial lamb today. Marquis left me pleasantly surprised.

 

For the next 26 hours, Jason Marquis is my hero!

[BigbadB]

The Brewer's bats must be extremely tired about right now. Cubs win this game.

 

See.

[Bruno7481]

I'm telling you all, its time to stop pretending Marquis is terrible, he's not.

 

He's a well above average 5th starter.

[Drew Doughty]

I'm telling you all, its time to stop pretending Marquis is terrible, he's not.

 

He's a well above average 5th starter.

 

this was his first quality start since May 24th. he has been mediocre or worse in every start since then (besides today, when he really should have gone 8 or perhaps more. lou sucks at BP management).

[Bruno7481]

I'm telling you all, its time to stop pretending Marquis is terrible, he's not.

 

He's a well above average 5th starter.

 

this was his first quality start since May 24th. he has been mediocre or worse in every start since then (besides today, when he really should have gone 8 or perhaps more. lou sucks at BP management).

 

6-4 3.31 ERA

 

.226 BAA

.309 OBPA

.636 OPS against

 

He's a well above average 5th starter. The Marquis talk is ridiculous.

[CubColtPacer]

I'm telling you all, its time to stop pretending Marquis is terrible, he's not.

 

He's a well above average 5th starter.

 

this was his first quality start since May 24th. he has been mediocre or worse in every start since then (besides today, when he really should have gone 8 or perhaps more. lou sucks at BP management).

 

Yeah, most of his good starts did come in the first two months. He did have a chance or two this month where he pitched well and got a little unlucky with one big hit (Seattle is the prime example of this). In the first month and a half, those big hits were not coming for the opposition, and in the last month they have (plus a couple bad outings as well). That will probably even out as the months go along.

I'd be very happy if he ends up with an ERA right around 4, and I think he has a pretty good shot of doing that. I predicted an ERA around 4.5, and a 4 would be outstanding production for the salary compared to what other pitchers were getting this offseason in the market.

[Drew Doughty]

I'm telling you all, its time to stop pretending Marquis is terrible, he's not.

 

He's a well above average 5th starter.

 

this was his first quality start since May 24th. he has been mediocre or worse in every start since then (besides today, when he really should have gone 8 or perhaps more. lou sucks at BP management).

 

6-4 3.31 ERA

 

.226 BAA

.309 OBPA

.636 OPS against

 

He's a well above average 5th starter. The Marquis talk is ridiculous.

 

that's because he had a fluky good first month and a half of the season. he had a 5.09 ERA in June. 823 OPS against. .382 OBP against.

 

He is not above average. His numbers will even out by the end of the year because he is not a particularly good pitcher.

[Ender]

Looking at his stats he should probably be around a 4.00-4.50 ERA instead of what its at now but that still puts him as an above average #4 starter and one of the best #5's on any team.

[Bruno7481]

I'm telling you all, its time to stop pretending Marquis is terrible, he's not.

 

He's a well above average 5th starter.

 

this was his first quality start since May 24th. he has been mediocre or worse in every start since then (besides today, when he really should have gone 8 or perhaps more. lou sucks at BP management).

 

6-4 3.31 ERA

 

.226 BAA

.309 OBPA

.636 OPS against

 

He's a well above average 5th starter. The Marquis talk is ridiculous.

 

that's because he had a fluky good first month and a half of the season. he had a 5.09 ERA in June. 823 OPS against. .382 OBP against.

 

He is not above average. His numbers will even out by the end of the year because he is not a particularly good pitcher.

 

I always love the "just wait and see" argument. Tell me who's going to win the division too, did the Cubs catch the Brewers?

 

He's been good this year, I don't see why that is so hard to admit.

[Drew Doughty]

I'm telling you all, its time to stop pretending Marquis is terrible, he's not.

 

He's a well above average 5th starter.

 

this was his first quality start since May 24th. he has been mediocre or worse in every start since then (besides today, when he really should have gone 8 or perhaps more. lou sucks at BP management).

 

6-4 3.31 ERA

 

.226 BAA

.309 OBPA

.636 OPS against

 

He's a well above average 5th starter. The Marquis talk is ridiculous.

 

that's because he had a fluky good first month and a half of the season. he had a 5.09 ERA in June. 823 OPS against. .382 OBP against.

 

He is not above average. His numbers will even out by the end of the year because he is not a particularly good pitcher.

 

I always love the "just wait and see" argument. Tell me who's going to win the division too, did the Cubs catch the Brewers?

 

He's been good this year, I don't see why that is so hard to admit.

 

Because he has not been that good this year. Looking at ERA to be predictive of the rest of the season is a horrible idea. Hell, looking at ERA to be reflective of how one has pitched so far is a bad idea. He was good for a month and a half this year. he has been bad lately (aside from a very good start today).

[XZero771679666304]

I'm telling you all, its time to stop pretending Marquis is terrible, he's not.

 

He's a well above average 5th starter.

 

this was his first quality start since May 24th. he has been mediocre or worse in every start since then (besides today, when he really should have gone 8 or perhaps more. lou sucks at BP management).

 

6-4 3.31 ERA

 

.226 BAA

.309 OBPA

.636 OPS against

 

He's a well above average 5th starter. The Marquis talk is ridiculous.

 

that's because he had a fluky good first month and a half of the season. he had a 5.09 ERA in June. 823 OPS against. .382 OBP against.

 

He is not above average. His numbers will even out by the end of the year because he is not a particularly good pitcher.

 

I think it is being too pessimistic to assume that he can't have a good year. At this point I think it's 50/50 that he wins 10+ games and finishes with a sub-4 era.

 

It's not as if he's never done it before. Also, he's victimized himself with one or two bad innings in recent starts, which have actually been pretty good otherwise.

 

And even if he adds a full run to his ERA by the end of the year (which would bring him to just below his career era) and wins only 3 or 4 more games, that's still pretty good for a fifth starter.

[Mizzou]

Because he has not been that good this year. Looking at ERA to be predictive of the rest of the season is a horrible idea. Hell, looking at ERA to be reflective of how one has pitched so far is a bad idea. He was good for a month and a half this year. he has been bad lately (aside from a very good start today).

On the whole, he's been very good this year. Look at the numbers. Nothing about them says anything other than he's been solid.

 

And for a 5th starter, he's been great.

[Soriano12]

I'm telling you all, its time to stop pretending Marquis is terrible, he's not.

 

He's a well above average 5th starter.

 

this was his first quality start since May 24th. he has been mediocre or worse in every start since then (besides today, when he really should have gone 8 or perhaps more. lou sucks at BP management).

 

6-4 3.31 ERA

 

.226 BAA

.309 OBPA

.636 OPS against

 

He's a well above average 5th starter. The Marquis talk is ridiculous.

 

that's because he had a fluky good first month and a half of the season. he had a 5.09 ERA in June. 823 OPS against. .382 OBP against.

 

He is not above average. His numbers will even out by the end of the year because he is not a particularly good pitcher.

So we should base our judgements of Marquis so far this season, soley on the month of June, ignoring April and May?

[Ender]

5.19 K/9 is below average, 3.56 BB/9 is worse than average, 9.3% HR/FB is a tiny bit better than average probably because of the early weather. 69.7% LOB is actually a bit of bad luck on his part. BABIP .253 isn't really sustainable so he'll give up more H's in the future. 50.2% GB% is the real key here. Last year it dipped to 40% and he was terrible, the previous 2 years when it was 50%+ he had decent ERA's.

 

Marquis is not a great pitcher but he is pitching a lot like he did in 2004/2005 so I don't see why you'd expect a lot worse results. Wrigley might cost him a few extra runs as will the Cubs defense compared to those really strong Cardinal defenses those years but I don't see why you'd expect a repeat of last season. I think most teams would replace their #5 with him and a number of them would replace their #4's.

[Drew Doughty]

I think it is being too pessimistic to assume that he can't have a good year. At this point I think it's 50/50 that he wins 10+ games and finishes with a sub-4 era.

 

It's not as if he's never done it before. Also, he's victimized himself with one or two bad innings in recent starts, which have actually been pretty good otherwise.

 

And even if he adds a full run to his ERA by the end of the year (which would bring him to just below his career era) and wins only 3 or 4 more games, that's still pretty good for a fifth starter.

 

I want him to have a good year, but in all likelihood he will not have a good year. His peripherals are mediocre, he doesn't strike people out, he's starting to allow more fly balls, and he's starting to allow more home runs.

 

He also has been fairly lucky in regards to his ERA. He's given up a lot of unearned runs. Of the four starters on the Cubs, he has by far the biggest split between his ERA and his RA. He has the largest split between his FIP ERA and his actual ERA.

[Drew Doughty]

I'm telling you all, its time to stop pretending Marquis is terrible, he's not.

 

He's a well above average 5th starter.

 

this was his first quality start since May 24th. he has been mediocre or worse in every start since then (besides today, when he really should have gone 8 or perhaps more. lou sucks at BP management).

 

6-4 3.31 ERA

 

.226 BAA

.309 OBPA

.636 OPS against

 

He's a well above average 5th starter. The Marquis talk is ridiculous.

 

that's because he had a fluky good first month and a half of the season. he had a 5.09 ERA in June. 823 OPS against. .382 OBP against.

 

He is not above average. His numbers will even out by the end of the year because he is not a particularly good pitcher.

So we should base our judgements of Marquis so far this season, soley on the month of June, ignoring April and May?

 

no, but you should take april and may with a grain of salt. they were a very obvious fluke.

[Elrhino]

In other words, ignore all his good starts, focus on his bad starts and that tells the true story. Sounds objective to me.

[wilk]

Exactly. Any good performance is "very obvious fluke" and any awful performance is the best way to judge the rest of the player's career. Brilliant and objective, indeed.

[Drew Doughty]

In other words, ignore all his good starts, focus on his bad starts and that tells the true story. Sounds objective to me.

 

which is totally what i'm doing. he was very lucky during a few of his good starts. he's even been a little lucky in some of his bad starts (like 1.2 IP, 6 R, only 2 earned). that's basically my argument. Not all of his good starts, just some. he'll have a few good starts, but i'd expect more of what he offered in June.

[Drew Doughty]

Exactly. Any good performance is "very obvious fluke" and any awful performance is the best way to judge the rest of the player's career. Brilliant and objective, indeed.

 

that is not what i'm arguing. i said his first two months in which he posted a 2.93 ERA were obviously fluky. if you disagree, then you are definitively wrong. everything about his numbers points to this. His peripherals are mediocre at best, and they're starting to decline (again, with the exception of today). His FIP is high, which indicates that he's been very lucky so far. His babip is well below his career norm (it was right around his career norm in June, maybe a little high -- but not much). His HR/FB rate is well below his career norm. He pitched over his head for two months of the year. He headed back to earth in June. He might not be as bad as he was in June, but he's much worse than his numbers indicated in April and May.

[Mephistopheles]

MARQUIS IS GOOD, DUH!!!

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/marquja01.shtml

[SouthSideRyan]

MARQUIS IS GOOD, DUH!!!

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/marquja01.shtml

 

You were pretty abrasive before, but you were providing really good baseball content, now you're just trolling.

Edited July 1, 2007 by SouthSideRyan

[Mephistopheles]

Blasphemy. Jason Marquis is obviously a good pitcher and has an ERA under 4.20 or so three of the last four years. That's enough for me.

[GhostRunner]

My advice? Marquis should wear body armor under his uni today.

Prophetic! He could have used it with that bat-head helicopter that nearly took him out in the first.