Has Soriano's lack of walks made him a poor leadoff hitter?

[RynoRules]

Soriano should be hitting second or fifth. Solo HRs from a guy who could knock out 50 in a year are a waste. Edited May 14, 2007 by RynoRules

[Soul]

Theriot's got more RBIs than Soriano. I'm sorry, but there's something fundamentally wrong with that.

 

I maintain Soriano shouldn't be hitting leadoff. Yes, yes, I know -- it's not going to change. That doesn't make it correct.

[CubColtPacer]

Theriot's got more RBIs than Soriano. I'm sorry, but there's something fundamentally wrong with that.

 

I maintain Soriano shouldn't be hitting leadoff. Yes, yes, I know -- it's not going to change. That doesn't make it correct.

 

That doesn't necessarily mean though that Soriano has had far fewer chances though-part of it is because that Soriano hasn't come through in those chances so far:

 

Soriano:

 

Nobody on (87 AB's)-.333/.370/.563

RISP (17 AB's)-.294/.368/.412

 

Theriot:

Nobody on (65 AB's)-.323/.362/.400

RISP (23 AB's)-.435/.480/.478

 

Now, that's not all of it-as you can see, Theriot has more at-bats with RISP despite having fewer at-bats overall. Moving Soriano down would increase his chances, but it is not his only reason for a low RBI number.

 

The other interesting thing about Soriano is that his numbers flip every single year in regards to his numbers with nobody on vs runners on:

 

2002-39 points better with runners on

2003-140 points better with none on

2004-45 points better with runners on

2005-145 points better with none on

2006-80 points better with runners on

 

There is no rhyme or reason to it-but to continue the pattern, he'd have to be much better with nobody on, and so far he's right there with 159 points better with nobody on. I don't think it has any predictive value whatsoever, but it's a very strange coincidence.

[Chocolate Milk]

Hey, he has 3 walks in his last 4 games. That's something, isn't it?

[SouthSideRyan]

Theriot's got more RBIs than Soriano. I'm sorry, but there's something fundamentally wrong with that.

 

I maintain Soriano shouldn't be hitting leadoff. Yes, yes, I know -- it's not going to change. That doesn't make it correct.

 

Part of the reason he's getting RBI is Soriano is getting himself into scoring position from the leadoff spot. There is value in SLG from the leadoff position in the same way that there is value in having a good base stealer in the leadoff position. It's nice to have a guy in scoring position to leadoff the game so your best hitters have 3 chances to bring him in with just a single.

[TB_11]

To leadoff an inning - .299/.341/.563

Nobody on - .278/.325/.530

Runners on - .269/.335/.503

 

He actually had a lower OBP when there's nobody on base from 2004-2006, but slightly higher to leadoff an inning. Of course, batting leadoff, you're probably more likely to bat with nobody on more often than you actually leadoff an inning. But the numbers are pretty close, likely in the range of normal fluctuation.

 

Definitely in the range of normal fluctuation. The difference between a .325 and .335 OBP is getting on base an additional 7 times in a season, or a little over one time per month.

[hardcorecubfan]

I guess the conclusion is that he is over-rated and over-paid for his position he plays and the order he bats.

[frostwyrm]

He should not be batting leadoff.

 

Over the course of an entire season, batting Soriano 1st instead of 5th (where you presumably want to bat him) results in an extra 80 plate appearances. I'm fine with that.

 

The extra plate appearances are not nearly enough to make me content with seeing Soriano hit a bunch of dingers with the bases empty.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

The Cubs have never won a game when Soriano started lower in the order.

[KyHen]

Negatives: He has a total of five walks through 29 games played. The Cubs as a team have six walks out of their leadoff spot after today's game, the worst in the NL (Jimmy Rollins has walked 10 times for the Phillies for the second worst in the NL).

 

Positives: Because he has been hitting the ball well, he's posted a .362 OBP so far, which is sixth best in the NL. For reference, in 2006 the Cubs posted a .329 OBP out of the leadoff spot, and in 2005 a .299 OBP (Thanks Dusty).

 

Has Soriano been a good leadoff hitter?

 

Well, there's a cause for concern with his poor walk rate so far: his BABIP at this point (.379) is a lot higher than it should be, if you use his LD% as a reference (17.2%). As a result, his batting average is going to regress back to his career average, which is going to result in his OBP taking a pretty big hit.

 

If, hypothetically, he average drops back to his .281 career average, his OBP would drop to .335. Pierre put up a .333 OBP last year. Soriano would still be an improvement, obviously, because he has significantly more power, but...

 

Soriano is such a unique case because of his speed and his very effectiveness base stealing rate. I personally think those things are wasted lower in the order (though I know many would agree with that). In my opinion its a catch-22 with a guy like him: utilize his speed by batting him in the order, but suffer from a low OBP guy that high OR maximize his power production by hitting him lower in the order, but losing out on the benefits of his speed in the process.

[imb]

Does the title of this thread bother anyone else?

 

Shouldn't it be "Have Soriano's....." instead of "Has", or am I just taking crazy pills here?

[NCCubFan]

Does the title of this thread bother anyone else?

 

Shouldn't it be "Have Soriano's....." instead of "Has", or am I just taking crazy pills here?

No, it's right. "Lack" is a singular noun, therefore the singular "has" (rather than the plural "have") is the correct matching. Even though "walks" is plural, because it is part of a preposition that's not what has vs. have is supposed to agree with.

[BCVM22]

Does the title of this thread bother anyone else?

 

Shouldn't it be "Have Soriano's....." instead of "Has", or am I just taking crazy pills here?

 

If it were "Soriano's walks", the correct grammar would be "Have" because the noun receiving the action would be "walks". Because it was written as "Soriano's lack of walks", the sentence receiving the attention is "lack of walks", which is referring collectively to the walks not taken by Soriano, making "Has" the appropriate grammar to go with a collective noun.

 

EDIT: Bugger.

Edited May 15, 2007 by BCVM22

[NCCubFan]

Does the title of this thread bother anyone else?

 

Shouldn't it be "Have Soriano's....." instead of "Has", or am I just taking crazy pills here?

 

If it were "Soriano's walks", the correct grammar would be "Have" because the noun receiving the action would be "walks". Because it was written as "Soriano's lack of walks", the sentence receiving the attention is "lack of walks", which is referring collectively to the walks not taken by Soriano, making "Has" the appropriate grammar to go with a collective noun.

Beat you to it. :P

[TB_11]

Does the title of this thread bother anyone else?

 

Shouldn't it be "Have Soriano's....." instead of "Has", or am I just taking crazy pills here?

 

If it were "Soriano's walks", the correct grammar would be "Have" because the noun receiving the action would be "walks". Because it was written as "Soriano's lack of walks", the sentence receiving the attention is "lack of walks", which is referring collectively to the walks not taken by Soriano, making "Has" the appropriate grammar to go with a collective noun.

 

EDIT: Bugger.

 

Booyakashah.

[Abe Frohman]

As long as Soriano keeps hitting around .300 with an on base around .350, I think he is doing a fine job at the top of the order. He's hitting doubles, and if he singles he is a threat to steal so he is in scoring position a good bit of the time. That's what we need.

 

I like how Theriot is pretty much replicating his performance in 06, so it looks like we have a pretty good 1-2 punch to get the meat of the order up with runners in scoring position.

[TB_11]

Well, there's a cause for concern with his poor walk rate so far: his BABIP at this point (.379) is a lot higher than it should be, if you use his LD% as a reference (17.2%). As a result, his batting average is going to regress back to his career average, which is going to result in his OBP taking a pretty big hit.

 

If, hypothetically, he average drops back to his .281 career average, his OBP would drop to .335. Pierre put up a .333 OBP last year. Soriano would still be an improvement, obviously, because he has significantly more power, but...

 

Soriano is such a unique case because of his speed and his very effectiveness base stealing rate. I personally think those things are wasted lower in the order (though I know many would agree with that). In my opinion its a catch-22 with a guy like him: utilize his speed by batting him in the order, but suffer from a low OBP guy that high OR maximize his power production by hitting him lower in the order, but losing out on the benefits of his speed in the process.

 

Very valid point. To date, Soriano has been extremely lucky, and at some point that luck will run out (for reference, his LD% has been 18.7%, 19.0% and 19.6% the last three years). When it does, we will be left with a leadoff hitter who gets on base at the same level, if not worse, than whipping-boy Juan Pierre did last year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Soriano has walked in 5 of his last 6 games.

[A New Era]

Soriano has walked in 5 of his last 6 games.

 

Maybe he read TB's post and felt bad? :lol:

[David]

The Sun-Times is reporting that Soriano's move from the leadoff spot might not be a temporary thing.

 

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/387216,CST-SPT-csep16.article

 

NEW YORK -- Alfonso Soriano may have seen his last day as a leadoff hitter for the Cubs.

 

Soriano, the regular leadoff hitter for each of his four major-league teams since 2002 with the New York Yankees, is not expected to return to the leadoff spot even after No. 3 hitter Derrek Lee returns to the lineup.

[TruffleShuffle]

The Sun-Times is reporting that Soriano's move from the leadoff spot might not be a temporary thing.

 

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/387216,CST-SPT-csep16.article

 

NEW YORK -- Alfonso Soriano may have seen his last day as a leadoff hitter for the Cubs.

 

Soriano, the regular leadoff hitter for each of his four major-league teams since 2002 with the New York Yankees, is not expected to return to the leadoff spot even after No. 3 hitter Derrek Lee returns to the lineup.

 

Good to hear. Even though lineup is overrated, this is probably what I'd like to see on a daily basis:

 

vs RHP:

SS Theriot

LF Murton (or Barrett, if Floyd plays - then I bat Floyd 7th)

1B Lee

3B Ramirez

RF Soriano

CF Jones

C Barrett

2B DeRosa

P Whoever

 

vs RHP:

SS Theriot

LF Murton

1B Lee

3B Ramirez

RF Soriano

2B DeRosa

C Barrett

CF Pagan

P Whoever

[RynoRules]

Does the title of this thread bother anyone else?

 

Shouldn't it be "Have Soriano's....." instead of "Has", or am I just taking crazy pills here?

No, it's right. "Lack" is a singular noun, therefore the singular "has" (rather than the plural "have") is the correct matching. Even though "walks" is plural, because it is part of a preposition that's not what has vs. have is supposed to agree with.

 

:!:

 

The Deadly Viper Grammar and Spelling Squad have/has lost credibility!

Edited May 16, 2007 by RynoRules

[RynoRules]

The Sun-Times is reporting that Soriano's move from the leadoff spot might not be a temporary thing.

 

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/387216,CST-SPT-csep16.article

 

NEW YORK -- Alfonso Soriano may have seen his last day as a leadoff hitter for the Cubs.

 

Soriano, the regular leadoff hitter for each of his four major-league teams since 2002 with the New York Yankees, is not expected to return to the leadoff spot even after No. 3 hitter Derrek Lee returns to the lineup.

 

This is freaking fabulous news and might lead to a major change in offensive production.

[Keener98]

Here is more of the quote from Piniella from cubs.com

 

When Lee returns, he'll go back into the No. 3 spot in the Cubs lineup. Soriano started there for the second straight game Tuesday. The question is, will Soriano return to the leadoff spot? Piniella wouldn't provide a direct answer.

 

"All I said was D-Lee was going to hit third," Piniella said. "I didn't say anything else."

 

So, what happens to Soriano?

 

"Well, we're going to find out," Piniella said.

 

Ryan Theriot could lead off, and Soriano could be inserted into the No. 2 spot so the team can take advantage of both his speed and power. Soriano has been hitting a lot of doubles with nobody on base.

 

I dont know what the point really would be of hitting him 2. I guess it would help a little , but I think 4 or 5 would be a better fit.

[jmajew]

Hitting Soriano 2 is almost ideal in my mind. We can utilize his top of the order abilities as well as he power abilities. With Theriot on base so much Soriano will have a lot better chance of driving in some runs.

 

Theriot, Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, Murton, Barrett, Jones, DeRosa looks very solid to me.