Has Soriano's lack of walks made him a poor leadoff hitter?

[BCVM22]

Did he reach base on April 10th? I see no BBs or hits.

 

Hit by a Chris Sampson pitch to lead off the bottom of the 1st.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It seems worthwhile to point out that Soriano has been more effective than any other leadoff hitter with a similar, .360-ish OBP.

 

Better to go .360 OBP with 5 walks than .360 OBP with 25 walks. The first guy's got 20 more hits, and despite the rallying cry, a walk is not as good as a hit.

 

I agree. And as I type this, Soriano takes a walk, to make it all 29 games now that he's reached base in.

Did he reach base on April 10th? I see no BBs or hits.

 

He got hit by a pitch. Link

[BigSlick]

Has Soriano's lack of walks made him a poor leadoff hitter?

 

Yes.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If Soriano keeps his OBP abpve 350, I really don't care if he uses walks or hits to do so. I'm not a fan of walks, I'm a fan of high OBP players. It makes little difference to me how that is accomplished.

[frostwyrm]

Soriano is the least of our problems. Our Pen and offense just flat out stinks.

 

Opportunity cost. Look at Soriano's contract, then ask what else we could have gotten for that money. LF is also the easiest position to fill and has arguably the highest offensive expectations. Soriano's numbers are fine but certainly unspectacular for his position. He needs to do better before I'd say his contributions outweigh the opportunity cost incurred by paying his gigantic salary plus blocking the easiest position to fill for 8 years.

[Amazing_Grace]

If Soriano keeps his OBP abpve 350, I really don't care if he uses walks or hits to do so. I'm not a fan of walks, I'm a fan of high OBP players. It makes little difference to me how that is accomplished.

 

Seconded.

[Warpticon]

Soriano is the least of our problems. Our Pen and offense just flat out stinks.

 

Opportunity cost. Look at Soriano's contract, then ask what else we could have gotten for that money. LF is also the easiest position to fill and has arguably the highest offensive expectations. Soriano's numbers are fine but certainly unspectacular for his position. He needs to do better before I'd say his contributions outweigh the opportunity cost incurred by paying his gigantic salary plus blocking the easiest position to fill for 8 years.

 

Which...has nothing to do with this thread.

[DivineBovine]

I don't care what his walks/obp state, he should NOT be batting leadoff. He is a middle of the lineup player. It's hurting the team not having him bat more with men on base.

[mspcanes1]

I don't care what his walks/obp state, he should NOT be batting leadoff. He is a middle of the lineup player. It's hurting the team not having him bat more with men on base.

 

absolutely! theriot is our leadoff hitter. we should have murton hit 2nd, soriano 3rd, lee 4th, ramirez 5th, jones 6th, barrett 7th, derossa 8th, pitcher 9th.

 

the fonz would see nothing but cheese in that third spot knowing they gotta get him out b4 the man comes up

[frostwyrm]

Soriano is the least of our problems. Our Pen and offense just flat out stinks.

 

Opportunity cost. Look at Soriano's contract, then ask what else we could have gotten for that money. LF is also the easiest position to fill and has arguably the highest offensive expectations. Soriano's numbers are fine but certainly unspectacular for his position. He needs to do better before I'd say his contributions outweigh the opportunity cost incurred by paying his gigantic salary plus blocking the easiest position to fill for 8 years.

 

Which...has nothing to do with this thread.

 

At his current level of production I still consider Soriano a problem.

[brinoch]

Soriano is the least of our problems. Our Pen and offense just flat out stinks.

 

Except that, dare I say it, moving Soriano down in the lineup might perhaps help the lineup by moving players who get on base more often into the 1 and 2 spots. I'll stop the crazy talk now.

[CubColtPacer]

Soriano is the least of our problems. Our Pen and offense just flat out stinks.

 

Except that, dare I say it, moving Soriano down in the lineup might perhaps help the lineup by moving players who get on base more often into the 1 and 2 spots. I'll stop the crazy talk now.

 

At the time he made his post (earlier today), Soriano was 3rd of the regulars in OBP. The other two? They bat 2nd and 3rd every time they play (Theriot/Lee). So far, Soriano's OBP hasn't been a problem at all, and he has been one of the players who gets on base more often.

[brinoch]

Soriano is the least of our problems. Our Pen and offense just flat out stinks.

 

Except that, dare I say it, moving Soriano down in the lineup might perhaps help the lineup by moving players who get on base more often into the 1 and 2 spots. I'll stop the crazy talk now.

 

At the time he made his post (earlier today), Soriano was 3rd of the regulars in OBP. The other two? They bat 2nd and 3rd every time they play (Theriot/Lee). So far, Soriano's OBP hasn't been a problem at all, and he has been one of the players who gets on base more often.

 

And yet, there's another player who could fill the bill: Matt Murton. I'd go with:

 

Theriot, SS

Murton, RF

Lee, 1B

Ramirez, 3B

Soriano, LF

Jones, CF

Barrett, C

DeRosa, 2B

 

Soriano really does have a lot of power, and I really hate seeing solo home runs. Just a personal thing.

[frostwyrm]

Soriano is the least of our problems. Our Pen and offense just flat out stinks.

 

Except that, dare I say it, moving Soriano down in the lineup might perhaps help the lineup by moving players who get on base more often into the 1 and 2 spots. I'll stop the crazy talk now.

 

At the time he made his post (earlier today), Soriano was 3rd of the regulars in OBP. The other two? They bat 2nd and 3rd every time they play (Theriot/Lee). So far, Soriano's OBP hasn't been a problem at all, and he has been one of the players who gets on base more often.

 

And yet, there's another player who could fill the bill: Matt Murton. I'd go with:

 

Theriot, SS

Murton, RF

Lee, 1B

Ramirez, 3B

Soriano, LF

Jones, CF

Barrett, C

DeRosa, 2B

 

Soriano really does have a lot of power, and I really hate seeing solo home runs. Just a personal thing.

 

It's not just you. Big bunches of solo homers really bug me, especially when the player hitting them is being paid huge $$ because of his power.

[jjgman21]

the initial question is a bit confusing, and I'm not sure it completely encompasses what the poster was getting at. are we talking about leadoff hitters or are we talking about obtaining OBP without walking?

 

Yes, he's been a bad leadoff hitter because even though his OBP is decent without walks, his baserunning mistakes have been numerous enough as to make that OBP misleading. with those baserunning errors adjusted into OBP, he's probably about .320.

 

OBP is most important to leading off, and walks are a component of that, but there's alot more to it. a leadoff hitter should see alot of pitches. Soriano sees very few.

 

Soriano never should have batted lead off in his career, ever. the "his stats are so much better there" argument is silly, right out of Bull Durham's 'if he thinks he's winning because he isn't having sex, then he shouldn't have sex.' cause and effect have been mixed up considerably with this, and I hope the front office recognizes it soon. before his 2006 skewed his career line, he was just as capable of a 5 hole hitter than a leadoff hitter.

 

put him where his skill set belongs. drop him down, give him some protection, and the Cubs will be much better off.

Edited May 14, 2007 by jjgman21

[Mephistopheles]

ryan theriot isnt a better leadoff hitter than alfonso soriano. let's not pretend that he is.

[TheDude]

If Soriano keeps his OBP abpve 350, I really don't care if he uses walks or hits to do so. I'm not a fan of walks, I'm a fan of high OBP players. It makes little difference to me how that is accomplished.

 

The voice of reason strikes again. OBP is OBP. The folks that have questioned the Soriano signing attacked his OBP, but usually were willing to relent if his OBP could match the '06 total. It's only May, but he's right there.

[Jon]

As others have pointed out, this isn't only about OBP. There were two possible reasons why he shouldn't be batting leadoff coming into this season: low OBP and/or high SLG. Soriano's OBP is okay right now, but his SLG is always going to make his bat more valuable a little further down in the lineup.

 

It's not an issue about having to fill the leadoff position. It's a little cliche already, but the leadoff spot isn't a position. It's no more important than other spots in your lineup, so one aspect of a player's game (OBP) doesn't suddenly become a lot more important just because they're batting leadoff. Their OBP and SLG still hold the same value and it's still a matter of where you can best use both in the lineup, not just their OBP.

[jmajew]

Here is what I don't understand...

 

Leadoff: 289 BA, 354 OBP, 928 OPS, 706 AB

5th: 272 BA, 317 OBP, 839 OPS, 573 AB

2nd: 264 BA, 315 OBP, 773 OPS, 557 AB.

 

These are his last three years. Would it be worth accepting the dropoff from leadoff to 5th just to get him out of the leadoff spot?

[Warren Brusstar]

He should not be batting leadoff.

 

Over the course of an entire season, batting Soriano 1st instead of 5th (where you presumably want to bat him) results in an extra 80 plate appearances. I'm fine with that.

[UK1679666180]

Here is what I don't understand...

 

Leadoff: 289 BA, 354 OBP, 928 OPS, 706 AB

5th: 272 BA, 317 OBP, 839 OPS, 573 AB

2nd: 264 BA, 315 OBP, 773 OPS, 557 AB.

 

These are his last three years. Would it be worth accepting the dropoff from leadoff to 5th just to get him out of the leadoff spot?

 

Agreed, although that drop-off isn't a lock to occur.

 

You play to his strengths, so far, he has shown to be most comfortable hitting leadoff. To maximize his value, I would suggest putting a higher OBP in the 8th spot. Even if Izturis is out there, maybe put him 7th and Murton 8th. It makes that scenario much easier if Theriot is at SS.

[soapy]

Here is what I don't understand...

 

Leadoff: 289 BA, 354 OBP, 928 OPS, 706 AB

5th: 272 BA, 317 OBP, 839 OPS, 573 AB

2nd: 264 BA, 315 OBP, 773 OPS, 557 AB.

 

These are his last three years. Would it be worth accepting the dropoff from leadoff to 5th just to get him out of the leadoff spot?

 

it's been pointed out by others, but Soriano's drop in production could be attributed to other things besides his place in the order. at some point during his tenure at Texas, the league started to figure him out. his production dropped overall, not just when hitting out of the leadoff spot. eventually, Soriano made adjustments to the way pitchers were attacking him and improved on those numbers.

 

i am not totally dismissing the whole "he's comfortable at leadoff" arguement, but there may be more to it than that.

 

i would prefer to see him hitting lower in the order, but i'm not sure what the alternative is. i'm still skeptical that Theriot will maintain his current obp, i guess. if they did make a change, a 1/2 of Theriot/Murton would probably make the most sense.

 

ETA: in 2005, Soriano's best number actually came batting 5th, though it's very close. in 2006, he only had 29 ABs in the 5th spot, but put up 310/375/690.

[jmajew]

Here is what I don't understand...

 

Leadoff: 289 BA, 354 OBP, 928 OPS, 706 AB

5th: 272 BA, 317 OBP, 839 OPS, 573 AB

2nd: 264 BA, 315 OBP, 773 OPS, 557 AB.

 

These are his last three years. Would it be worth accepting the dropoff from leadoff to 5th just to get him out of the leadoff spot?

 

it's been pointed out by others, but Soriano's drop in production could be attributed to other things besides his place in the order. at some point during his tenure at Texas, the league started to figure him out. his production dropped overall, not just when hitting out of the leadoff spot. eventually, Soriano made adjustments to the way pitchers were attacking him and improved on those numbers.

 

i am not totally dismissing the whole "he's comfortable at leadoff" arguement, but there may be more to it than that.

 

i would prefer to see him hitting lower in the order, but i'm not sure what the alternative is. i'm still skeptical that Theriot will maintain his current obp, i guess. if they did make a change, a 1/2 of Theriot/Murton would probably make the most sense.

 

I'm not saying he is more comfortable but there as to be some reason he is better up there. Maybe he sees better pitches because there is no one on base. Maybe his numbers in the first inning are incredibly higher than his career norms. I don't know how to find that information but I think it would be interesting to look up. I could honestly see Soriano's numbers being much higher in the first inning than they are compared to any other.

[Jon]

What doesn't make sense right now is to have Soriano batting leadoff and Theriot hitting second. Sure Theriot's OBP won't stay this high for the rest of the year, but what's wrong with Soriano hitting second? It shouldn't really negatively effect his base stealing opportunities if both guys get on base (he wouldn't be running in the leadoff spot if in theory he knew that the guy in the second spot would also be reaching), it doesn't effect the rest of the lineup, but it gives Soriano a chance to bat with someone on base more often than he does.

 

It should go high OBP/low (no) power followed by above average OBP/high power, not the other way around.

[Jon]

Here is what I don't understand...

 

Leadoff: 289 BA, 354 OBP, 928 OPS, 706 AB

5th: 272 BA, 317 OBP, 839 OPS, 573 AB

2nd: 264 BA, 315 OBP, 773 OPS, 557 AB.

 

These are his last three years. Would it be worth accepting the dropoff from leadoff to 5th just to get him out of the leadoff spot?

 

it's been pointed out by others, but Soriano's drop in production could be attributed to other things besides his place in the order. at some point during his tenure at Texas, the league started to figure him out. his production dropped overall, not just when hitting out of the leadoff spot. eventually, Soriano made adjustments to the way pitchers were attacking him and improved on those numbers.

 

i am not totally dismissing the whole "he's comfortable at leadoff" arguement, but there may be more to it than that.

 

i would prefer to see him hitting lower in the order, but i'm not sure what the alternative is. i'm still skeptical that Theriot will maintain his current obp, i guess. if they did make a change, a 1/2 of Theriot/Murton would probably make the most sense.

 

I'm not saying he is more comfortable but there as to be some reason he is better up there. Maybe he sees better pitches because there is no one on base. Maybe his numbers in the first inning are incredibly higher than his career norms. I don't know how to find that information but I think it would be interesting to look up. I could honestly see Soriano's numbers being much higher in the first inning than they are compared to any other.

Here are his 3-year splits:

 

To leadoff an inning - .299/.341/.563

Nobody on - .278/.325/.530

Runners on - .269/.335/.503

 

He actually had a lower OBP when there's nobody on base from 2004-2006, but slightly higher to leadoff an inning. Of course, batting leadoff, you're probably more likely to bat with nobody on more often than you actually leadoff an inning. But the numbers are pretty close, likely in the range of normal fluctuation.