This season is already over.

[Cubfanintheknow]

This thread has the feel of a sports talk radio topic.

 

This morning, Steve Rosenbloom basically said the same thing on ESPN 1000. According to "Rosey," the phone lines were lit up with angry Cub fans wanting to bite his head off.

 

If I had the patience, I'd have called in myself. But I would have just said to Cub fans, "Hang up right now. This is just another case of an idiot talk show host/sportswriter goading fans. If you ignore the man he'll go away."

 

It's not as if I'm looking at this team through Cubbie-blue colored glasses. There are problems. But there's also too much time for them to be fixed. Especially in the NL Central.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

No team can continue to have luck as bad as the Cubs have had in close games to start the year. We have the best pythagorean record in the Central, which isn't a surprise given that the team is supposed to be right there with the rest of the mediocrity in the division. Give some time for these things to even out a bit.

 

Pyth is worthless at this stage. It looks good thanks to a couple high scoring games. I've never liked its inability to account for feast or famine offenses like the Cubs, and that is just exasperated this early in the season. Take out the Cubs 2 highest and 2 lowest scoring games, and their average runs scored drops from about 4.6 to 4.3. The Cubs aren't having bad luck. They are a flawed team having all its weaknesses exposed.

 

People keep talking about the 1 and 2 run losses, but the Cubs have lost by 3, 4 and 5 runs as well. When you are a bad team with a bad record, your record is going to be bad in just about every split.

 

The Cubs need to drastically improve their play, not hope for luck to start going there way.

 

So you think their 0-9 mark in close games is indicative of their true ability? They've lost close games with no scoring, with lots of scoring, and in between. CCP has shown that they aren't losing a ton of games by other deficits. Unless you can point to a specific reason why they'll continue to be mind bendingly bad in close games, then there's no reason to assume they won't correct that, and that's the difference right now between last place and first place, never mind what's in between.

[jersey cubs fan]

So you think their 0-9 mark in close games is indicative of their true ability?

 

I think they're 7-12 record is indicative of how they have played, and that arbitrarily including 2 run games into the discussion is nonsense.

 

1-run losses are often talked about as games that could go either way, with luck. But this is really stretching it.

 

If, in most of your games, you don't score many runs, you are going to end up short with the final tally quite often.

 

Finally, what do you mean by ability? The Cubs have the talent to be able to win 85 games this year, if things go right. They are also quite able to lose 85. This isn't some juggernaut off to a rough start. It was a very flawed team that might contend this year. So far, they aren't.

[CubinNY]

No team can continue to have luck as bad as the Cubs have had in close games to start the year. We have the best pythagorean record in the Central, which isn't a surprise given that the team is supposed to be right there with the rest of the mediocrity in the division. Give some time for these things to even out a bit.

 

Pyth is worthless at this stage. It looks good thanks to a couple high scoring games. I've never liked its inability to account for feast or famine offenses like the Cubs, and that is just exasperated this early in the season. Take out the Cubs 2 highest and 2 lowest scoring games, and their average runs scored drops from about 4.6 to 4.3. The Cubs aren't having bad luck. They are a flawed team having all its weaknesses exposed.

 

People keep talking about the 1 and 2 run losses, but the Cubs have lost by 3, 4 and 5 runs as well. When you are a bad team with a bad record, your record is going to be bad in just about every split.

 

The Cubs need to drastically improve their play, not hope for luck to start going there way.

 

So you think their 0-9 mark in close games is indicative of their true ability? They've lost close games with no scoring, with lots of scoring, and in between. CCP has shown that they aren't losing a ton of games by other deficits. Unless you can point to a specific reason why they'll continue to be mind bendingly bad in close games, then there's no reason to assume they won't correct that, and that's the difference right now between last place and first place, never mind what's in between.

 

Perhaps things will even out. But last night's loss was not bad luck. D-Lee tried to steal 3rd and got called out just before Aramis hit a HR. Even if Lee was safe (which appearently most people think he was), it's still dumb. Cubs win 5-4.

 

Against the Cards stupid Henry Blanco can't get a bunt down then a couple of innings later Cedeno overslides second base on a freaking ball 4. That is not bad luck. In many of those close games the Cubs have done something stupid that contributed to the loss. Not to mention Marquis has 2 pinch hit ABs.

[BigSlick]

One of the worst Cub teams of my lifetime.

 

An absolutely horrible collection of bad and overrated baseball players.

 

Although Philly just won three straight and they are a bad, bad team...

 

But yes so far this is the most overrated baseball players since 2004.

 

What was overrated about the 2004 team? It was fantastic, and then suffered some injuries and then Latroy Hawkins was hoisted upon us.

 

89 wins is 89 wins, thats like the 2 seed last year.

[Soul]

This thread has the feel of a sports talk radio topic.

 

This morning, Steve Rosenbloom basically said the same thing on ESPN 1000. According to "Rosey," the phone lines were lit up with angry Cub fans wanting to bite his head off.

 

If I had the patience, I'd have called in myself. But I would have just said to Cub fans, "Hang up right now. This is just another case of an idiot talk show host/sportswriter goading fans. If you ignore the man he'll go away."

 

It's not as if I'm looking at this team through Cubbie-blue colored glasses. There are problems. But there's also too much time for them to be fixed. Especially in the NL Central.

 

Ignoring a talk show host is one thing. Ignoring a 7-12 start, last in a terrible division? Much different, indeed.

[David]

One of the worst Cub teams of my lifetime.

 

An absolutely horrible collection of bad and overrated baseball players.

 

Although Philly just won three straight and they are a bad, bad team...

 

But yes so far this is the most overrated baseball players since 2004.

 

The 2004 team was not overrated. It was also the best Cubs team I've ever watched (only been a serious fan since about 1994 or so). The team was well on its way to winning 94 or 95 games, but completely and utterly ran out of gas at the end (not that I need to remind anybody). Outside of the final two weeks, that team did not underperform, at all, especially when you consider the injuries to Prior and Wood early on.

Edited April 24, 2007 by David

[Chocolate Milk]

No team can continue to have luck as bad as the Cubs have had in close games to start the year. We have the best pythagorean record in the Central, which isn't a surprise given that the team is supposed to be right there with the rest of the mediocrity in the division. Give some time for these things to even out a bit.

 

Pyth is worthless at this stage. It looks good thanks to a couple high scoring games. I've never liked its inability to account for feast or famine offenses like the Cubs, and that is just exasperated this early in the season. Take out the Cubs 2 highest and 2 lowest scoring games, and their average runs scored drops from about 4.6 to 4.3. The Cubs aren't having bad luck. They are a flawed team having all its weaknesses exposed.

 

People keep talking about the 1 and 2 run losses, but the Cubs have lost by 3, 4 and 5 runs as well. When you are a bad team with a bad record, your record is going to be bad in just about every split.

 

The Cubs need to drastically improve their play, not hope for luck to start going there way.

 

So you think their 0-9 mark in close games is indicative of their true ability? They've lost close games with no scoring, with lots of scoring, and in between. CCP has shown that they aren't losing a ton of games by other deficits. Unless you can point to a specific reason why they'll continue to be mind bendingly bad in close games, then there's no reason to assume they won't correct that, and that's the difference right now between last place and first place, never mind what's in between.

 

Perhaps things will even out. But last night's loss was not bad luck. D-Lee tried to steal 3rd and got called out just before Aramis hit a HR. Even if Lee was safe (which appearently most people think he was), it's still dumb. Cubs win 5-4.

 

Against the Cards stupid Henry Blanco can't get a bunt down then a couple of innings later Cedeno overslides second base on a freaking ball 4. That is not bad luck. In many of those close games the Cubs have done something stupid that contributed to the loss. Not to mention Marquis has 2 pinch hit ABs.

 

I agree with the second paragraph but the first paragraph is a prime example of being unlucky. A player who is clearly safe, on replay, was called out and a homer what hit the next play. The run would have been the difference in winning and losing. I understand that it may not have been the best idea to run, but Lee was safe. It was misfortune that he was called out, not lack of execution. These types of things will even out over time and the Cubs record will rebound, imo. How much it will rebound, I'm not sure.

 

I agree with Bill James that a team's record in one run games is more closely correlated with luck than anything else.

[David]

No team can continue to have luck as bad as the Cubs have had in close games to start the year. We have the best pythagorean record in the Central, which isn't a surprise given that the team is supposed to be right there with the rest of the mediocrity in the division. Give some time for these things to even out a bit.

 

Exactly.

[coreyMVP]

How a Cub fan can still believe that "luck will even out" is beyond belief.

[David]

I agree that Lee was safe, but you can't really assume that Aramis would've hit that HR if Lee had been called safe or hadn't tried to steal at all.

[Derwood]

to elabortate on goony's evil jersey's post, toss the "1 or 2 run game" out the window and look at this:

 

When the Cubs score 4 runs or fewer, they are 2-9.

When the Cubs score 5 runs or more, they are 5-3.

 

the winning percentage isn't off the charts for the 5+ runs, but the alarming number is that the Cubs have score 4 or fewer in 11 out of 19 games so far. That's not going to win you games consistently no matter your luck/pitching/manager

[Transmogrified Tiger]

to elabortate on goony's evil jersey's post, toss the "1 or 2 run game" out the window and look at this:

 

When the Cubs score 4 runs or fewer, they are 2-9.

When the Cubs score 5 runs or more, they are 5-3.

 

the winning percentage isn't off the charts for the 5+ runs, but the alarming number is that the Cubs have score 4 or fewer in 11 out of 19 games so far. That's not going to win you games consistently no matter your luck/pitching/manager

 

The Brewers have scored 4 or fewer in 9 of their 19 games and they're on top of the division. They're also 7-3 in games decided by 2 runs or less.

[Derwood]

to elabortate on goony's evil jersey's post, toss the "1 or 2 run game" out the window and look at this:

 

When the Cubs score 4 runs or fewer, they are 2-9.

When the Cubs score 5 runs or more, they are 5-3.

 

the winning percentage isn't off the charts for the 5+ runs, but the alarming number is that the Cubs have score 4 or fewer in 11 out of 19 games so far. That's not going to win you games consistently no matter your luck/pitching/manager

 

The Brewers have scored 4 or fewer in 9 of their 19 games and they're on top of the division. They're also 7-3 in games by 2 runs or less.

 

and the brewers are as likely to win 70% of those games over the span of teh season as the Cubs are to win 0%

[Guest]

This team has a lot of ingredients of team's that lose a lot of close games. I wouldn't be waiting for that to even out.

[CubinNY]

I agree that Lee was safe, but you can't really assume that Aramis would've hit that HR if Lee had been called safe or hadn't tried to steal at all.

 

That's asinine. Aramis hit a freaking HR. That HR was the difference in the ball game if Lee doesn't try to steal.

 

For the life of me, I cannot understand Cub fans.

 

ITS NOT BAD LUCK THAT IS KEEPING THE CUBS FROM WINNING

[Chocolate Milk]

to elabortate on goony's evil jersey's post, toss the "1 or 2 run game" out the window and look at this:

 

When the Cubs score 4 runs or fewer, they are 2-9.

When the Cubs score 5 runs or more, they are 5-3.

 

the winning percentage isn't off the charts for the 5+ runs, but the alarming number is that the Cubs have score 4 or fewer in 11 out of 19 games so far. That's not going to win you games consistently no matter your luck/pitching/manager

 

The Brewers have scored 4 or fewer in 9 of their 19 games and they're on top of the division. They're also 7-3 in games decided by 2 runs or less.

 

And their pitching has been worse. 4.17 to the Cubs 3.84.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I agree that Lee was safe, but you can't really assume that Aramis would've hit that HR if Lee had been called safe or hadn't tried to steal at all.

 

That's asinine. Aramis hit a freaking HR. That HR was the difference in the ball game if Lee doesn't try to steal.

 

For the life of me, I cannot understand Cub fans.

 

ITS NOT BAD LUCK THAT IS KEEPING THE CUBS FROM WINNING

 

Butterfly Effect

[David]

I agree that Lee was safe, but you can't really assume that Aramis would've hit that HR if Lee had been called safe or hadn't tried to steal at all.

 

That's asinine. Aramis hit a freaking HR. That HR was the difference in the ball game if Lee doesn't try to steal.

 

For the life of me, I cannot understand Cub fans.

 

ITS NOT BAD LUCK THAT IS KEEPING THE CUBS FROM WINNING

 

Tell me, what exactly is asinine about what I said?

[UBlink]

to elabortate on goony's evil jersey's post, toss the "1 or 2 run game" out the window and look at this:

 

When the Cubs score 4 runs or fewer, they are 2-9.

When the Cubs score 5 runs or more, they are 5-3.

 

the winning percentage isn't off the charts for the 5+ runs, but the alarming number is that the Cubs have score 4 or fewer in 11 out of 19 games so far. That's not going to win you games consistently no matter your luck/pitching/manager

 

So luck and managing have no impact on how many runs you score?

[Derwood]

to elabortate on goony's evil jersey's post, toss the "1 or 2 run game" out the window and look at this:

 

When the Cubs score 4 runs or fewer, they are 2-9.

When the Cubs score 5 runs or more, they are 5-3.

 

the winning percentage isn't off the charts for the 5+ runs, but the alarming number is that the Cubs have score 4 or fewer in 11 out of 19 games so far. That's not going to win you games consistently no matter your luck/pitching/manager

 

So luck and managing have no impact on how many runs you score?

 

less impact than the players holding the bats

[ctcf]

This thread makes me chuckle

[CubinNY]

I agree that Lee was safe, but you can't really assume that Aramis would've hit that HR if Lee had been called safe or hadn't tried to steal at all.

 

That's asinine. Aramis hit a freaking HR. That HR was the difference in the ball game if Lee doesn't try to steal.

 

For the life of me, I cannot understand Cub fans.

 

ITS NOT BAD LUCK THAT IS KEEPING THE CUBS FROM WINNING

 

Tell me, what exactly is asinine about what I said?

 

Asinine:" You cannot really assume Aramis would've hit that HR if Lee had been called safe or hadn't tried to steal at all."

 

Aramis did hit a HR and Lee did get called out.

 

This isn't chaos theory nor is it the butterfly effect. All we have to go on is exactly what happened. And what happend was a dumb play followed by a HR that should have been the difference in the ball game.

 

EDIT> I do not think the season is over, but at this point in time the Cubs are not a good team. But with the mediocrity that is the NL Central they still have a shot.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I agree that Lee was safe, but you can't really assume that Aramis would've hit that HR if Lee had been called safe or hadn't tried to steal at all.

 

That's asinine. Aramis hit a freaking HR. That HR was the difference in the ball game if Lee doesn't try to steal.

 

For the life of me, I cannot understand Cub fans.

 

ITS NOT BAD LUCK THAT IS KEEPING THE CUBS FROM WINNING

 

Tell me, what exactly is asinine about what I said?

 

Asinine:" You cannot really Aramis would've hit that HR if Lee had been called safe or hadn't tried to steal at all."

 

Aramis did hit a HR and Lee did get called out.

 

This isn't chaos theory nor is it the butterfly effect. All we have to go on is exactly what happened. And what happend was a dumb play followed by a HR that should have been the difference in the ball game.

 

You're right, the outcome would've been exactly the same if Lee had been on third base. The same pitch would've been made with the same velocity and location even with a different number of outs, runners in scoring position, and a different delivery.

[CubColtPacer]

to elabortate on goony's evil jersey's post, toss the "1 or 2 run game" out the window and look at this:

 

When the Cubs score 4 runs or fewer, they are 2-9.

When the Cubs score 5 runs or more, they are 5-3.

 

the winning percentage isn't off the charts for the 5+ runs, but the alarming number is that the Cubs have score 4 or fewer in 11 out of 19 games so far. That's not going to win you games consistently no matter your luck/pitching/manager

 

The Brewers have scored 4 or fewer in 9 of their 19 games and they're on top of the division. They're also 7-3 in games decided by 2 runs or less.

 

And to continue on that, the Astros have scored 4 or less in 10 of their 18

Cincy in 11 of 19

St. Louis in 15 of 18

Pittsburgh in 10 of 17

 

And a few from the NL West:

LA-9 of 19 games

San Diego-12 of 19

San Francisco-11 of 17

Arizona-12 out of 20

 

The Cubs percentage of scoring 4 runs or less is neither unique or particularly indicative of their terrible record.