DLee homer watch

[ConstableRabbit]

what is it now, 85 plate appearances now?

 

19 games. i wager lee doesn't hit a single home run this year, unless it's inside the park. judging at how lucky he's getting on balls in play, that could be a possibility.

 

Wait. I was reading this thread, and I completely thought this was sarcasm or a joke until I read the rest of your posts in this thread and started to suspect otherwise.

 

You can't be serious, can you?

 

Were you seriously predicting that Lee would go all year without a home run?

 

I mean, he has a murderous dictator in his avatar, which unless sarcastic, doesn't leave me to believe reason stands in his way.

 

who's the murderous dictator in my avatar?

 

OOOOOOHHHH IT'S ON!!!

 

i just want to know how anyone could confuse the guy in my avatar with a murderous dictator. who did he murder?

 

Well his rise to power wasn't bloodless.

 

Regardless, it was kind of a weak jab. If I were getting personal, I would've attacked your credability based on your beliefs in Marxism.

 

...or he could've just attacked your argument.

[slieb85]

what is it now, 85 plate appearances now?

 

19 games. i wager lee doesn't hit a single home run this year, unless it's inside the park. judging at how lucky he's getting on balls in play, that could be a possibility.

 

Wait. I was reading this thread, and I completely thought this was sarcasm or a joke until I read the rest of your posts in this thread and started to suspect otherwise.

 

You can't be serious, can you?

 

Were you seriously predicting that Lee would go all year without a home run?

 

he is one far out dude that is for sure... watch where they are pitching lee and where he is hitting it too, i've seriously seen them pitch inside on him about 10 times and about 5 of those have been rocketed for doubles and his 1 homer. He's hitting like .380 for christ sakes the pitchers will adjust and come inside more and his power will show up.

 

his BABIP is like .500, neauxb. that's bound to come down a hair. if you want to know what that means, it means that 50% of the balls he puts in play are going for hits, which means he's getting incredibly lucky--even with a LD% of 30%.

 

i know i'm a newbie to ur lil site here, but i understand what babip is, and he has been putting up an astronomical number. I would also argue that if you watch how his approach has been and how he has been pitched to, it lends itself to him drving the ball the other way and right up the box. Like i said, if you've watched you've seen maybe 10 pitches on the innner half to lee and he's crushed 1 out and about 3 others for doubles. I'm sure his babip will plummet, as soon as they start pitching him inside more, and his power should flourish... No need for harsh words, just rational debate works.

[seanimal]

It's not necessarily Marxism that I would take issue with. I don't need to have an issue with a political philosophy to have an issue with a person who subscribes to it. Castro is one of those people, not Sulley as it may have appeared in the post. I've pretty much heard all the justifications as to the things Castro does, but at the end of the day, left or right, any political system that actively suppresses political dissension via imprisonment or 'disappearances', is not one worth supporting. True, many people worship Castro, it's called the cult of personality, and it existed with Stalin, and perhaps, most men in power. However, there's something fundamentally wrong with a place when thousands of people resort to placing themselves on makeshift rafts and brave starvation, exposure, and drowning just to have the chance to live somewhere, anywhere else.

 

It might have been a cheapshot and for that I apologize, however, I still stand by my statement that Castro is a murderer. See: Che Guevara, Personal Assassin.

 

So what were we saying about Derek Lee?

[soccer10k]

It bears repeating.

 

Derrek Lee's OPS in 2007 = 1.034

 

Derrek Lee's rank in the NL in doubles = 2nd

 

Just because you aren't putting the ball in the seats doesn't mean you're not hitting for power.

 

A lot of that slg% is singles driven because he has a jesus christ like .485 babip. When that goes down, and it surely will, that slugging percentage will plummet unless he starts hitting the ball out of the park again.

 

This is very simple guys, I don't know how you keep getting it wrong.

 

Jesus's BABIP was never above 440.

 

Well that's cause he couldnt hit a curveball.

 

That's what I was waiting for.

 

It is like the whos Mark Buerhle joke, somebody has to say it.

 

Too true.

[Magnetic Curses]

It's not necessarily Marxism that I would take issue with. I don't need to have an issue with a political philosophy to have an issue with a person who subscribes to it. Castro is one of those people, not Sulley as it may have appeared in the post. I've pretty much heard all the justifications as to the things Castro does, but at the end of the day, left or right, any political system that actively suppresses political dissension via imprisonment or 'disappearances', is not one worth supporting. True, many people worship Castro, it's called the cult of personality, and it existed with Stalin, and perhaps, most men in power. However, there's something fundamentally wrong with a place when thousands of people resort to placing themselves on makeshift rafts and brave starvation, exposure, and drowning just to have the chance to live somewhere, anywhere else.

 

It might have been a cheapshot and for that I apologize, however, I still stand by my statement that Castro is a murderer. See: Che Guevara, Personal Assassin.

 

So what were we saying about Derek Lee?

 

i admire castro for his resolve during the cuban revolution, defeating an army of 10,000 with 300 guerrillas. regardless of what cuba has become, i prefer to think of it as better off this way than what it would have been, anyway. i also know no one who admires stalin, and as a socialist, i hate him for giving us a bad name.

 

my issue was with characterizing castro as "murderous". there's no need to further mislead people on this board by doing that. he ia and was in no way shape or form a "murderer".

 

and for your last part, if the united states were the size of cuba and a victim of a pointless embargo by a world super power, i hardly think that being capitalist or having a more liberal democracy would save it from people who were unhappy trying to flee.

[Magnetic Curses]

what is it now, 85 plate appearances now?

 

19 games. i wager lee doesn't hit a single home run this year, unless it's inside the park. judging at how lucky he's getting on balls in play, that could be a possibility.

 

Wait. I was reading this thread, and I completely thought this was sarcasm or a joke until I read the rest of your posts in this thread and started to suspect otherwise.

 

You can't be serious, can you?

 

Were you seriously predicting that Lee would go all year without a home run?

 

he is one far out dude that is for sure... watch where they are pitching lee and where he is hitting it too, i've seriously seen them pitch inside on him about 10 times and about 5 of those have been rocketed for doubles and his 1 homer. He's hitting like .380 for christ sakes the pitchers will adjust and come inside more and his power will show up.

 

his BABIP is like .500, neauxb. that's bound to come down a hair. if you want to know what that means, it means that 50% of the balls he puts in play are going for hits, which means he's getting incredibly lucky--even with a LD% of 30%.

 

i know i'm a newbie to ur lil site here, but i understand what babip is, and he has been putting up an astronomical number.

 

call me confused, but are you arguing with me or agreeing with me? BABIP helps to capture the amount of luck involved after the bat makes contact with the ball. lee has been lucky, he's also been hitting the ball hard, just not hard enough to earn a .500 BABIP. lee has been lucky, that luck will go away--what happens if his power doesn't return by then?

 

I would also argue that if you watch how his approach has been and how he has been pitched to, it lends itself to him drving the ball the other way and right up the box. Like i said, if you've watched you've seen maybe 10 pitches on the innner half to lee and he's crushed 1 out and about 3 others for doubles. I'm sure his babip will plummet, as soon as they start pitching him inside more, and his power should flourish... No need for harsh words, just rational debate works.

 

why would his BABIP plummet if he was pitched inside more? that's not why it will go down. it will go down because he'll stop getting so lucky. most likely it would go up if he's pitched inside more.

 

as for harsh words, if you want to personally insult me, i guarantee you'll get them.

[jersey cubs fan]

Lee's power remains a concern. He's now on pace for 12 HR. I'm guessing he'll end up with much more than that, but he'd have to really turn it on to even flirt with 30 this season.

 

He hasn't hit much since the first game against the Nationals, May 4. His OPS has dropped 132 points since that date. He's had a 4/5 day against Philly and the big homerun against the White Sox, but other than that, he hasn't done much. The Cubs are 7-10 during this time. Obviously that's not all the offense's fault, and Lee's struggles are partially due to the neck thing, but they began before that, and they really need him to turn it back on. I think the early BABIP success was unsustainable, as was the AVG. He is still hitting .373, but he probably won't end the season anywhere near that mark. They need his power to at least get back to pre 2005 levels.

[UMFan83]

I think he started out the season red hot and was starting to go on a bit of a slump when the neck injury occured. The slump itself was not a big deal, but the fact that he had to miss almost a week really punctuated his slump and in turn prolonged it. I think the person we need to worry about is Soriano who is slugging almost 90 points less than Lee on the year.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think he started out the season red hot and was starting to go on a bit of a slump when the neck injury occured. The slump itself was not a big deal, but the fact that he had to miss almost a week really punctuated his slump and in turn prolonged it. I think the person we need to worry about is Soriano who is slugging almost 90 points less than Lee on the year.

 

I think there is room for worrying about more than one player. Soriano, Lee, Barrett, they've all come up short of expectations.

[shnsajax]

I think he started out the season red hot and was starting to go on a bit of a slump when the neck injury occured. The slump itself was not a big deal, but the fact that he had to miss almost a week really punctuated his slump and in turn prolonged it. I think the person we need to worry about is Soriano who is slugging almost 90 points less than Lee on the year.

 

I think there is room for worrying about more than one player. Soriano, Lee, Barrett, they've all come up short of expectations.

 

Has Lee really come up short of expectations? #1 in MLB in batting, #9 in OPS, .429/.510/.714 with runners in scoring posisiton.

 

Nike needs to start running the chicks dig the long ball commercials again.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think he started out the season red hot and was starting to go on a bit of a slump when the neck injury occured. The slump itself was not a big deal, but the fact that he had to miss almost a week really punctuated his slump and in turn prolonged it. I think the person we need to worry about is Soriano who is slugging almost 90 points less than Lee on the year.

 

I think there is room for worrying about more than one player. Soriano, Lee, Barrett, they've all come up short of expectations.

 

Has Lee really come up short of expectations? #1 in MLB in batting, #9 in OPS, .429/.510/.714 with runners in scoring posisiton.

 

Nike needs to start running the chicks dig the long ball commercials again.

 

In a different manner than other people, yes. I think Lee's AVG is completely unsustainable. He had a great run there with the doubles, but there was always a concern about the lack of HR, and nothing that has happened since that concern was raised has changed that. His numbers are falling fast. I think most people expected something other than the 2005 career year version of Lee. I don't think anybody expected a guy on pace to hit 12 HR for the season. He's hitting in the exact same weather conditions as Ramirez, who is on pace for a career best 42.

 

It appears that concerns about his power returning with the wrist issue have been validated. If Lee is not going to be hitting HR, you can be pretty certain that AVG/OBP/SLG are going to keep dropping. If he doesn't significantly increase his HR pace, the numbers simply won't be there in the end. You can make fun of the "chicks dig the long ball" mentality all you want, but HRs truly are vital to a player like Lee's production.

 

I just don't see the point in ignoring Lee's struggles just because we have other players to worry about as well.

[TruffleShuffle]

I think Lee's AVG is completely unsustainable.

 

whoa, wait a minute... are you saying that you don't think he's going to finish the season with a .441 BABIP???

[Derwood]

the lack of HR would concern me more if he wasn't driving in runs. He's still knocking people in despite the 3 HR. Now you could say that his OPS trending downwards will slow down his run production, and if that happens, i'm as concerned as anyone

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I think Lee's AVG is completely unsustainable.

 

whoa, wait a minute... are you saying that you don't think he's going to finish the season with a .441 BABIP???

 

i'm perplexed by the negativity

[jersey cubs fan]

the lack of HR would concern me more if he wasn't driving in runs. He's still knocking people in despite the 3 HR. Now you could say that his OPS trending downwards will slow down his run production, and if that happens, i'm as concerned as anyone

 

This makes absolutely no sense.

 

First off, he's not driving in runs. He has only 28, which is a bad total for a #3 hitter at this point. He's on pace for just 100. And while that sounds like a nice round number for many, it's not anything to be excited about for a #3 hitter in today's game.

 

But more importantly, what is the point of waiting until after the problem is obvious to show concern? Lee's lack of HR has been a problem for 2 months now. Just because his other numbers have held up does not mean it wasn't a problem. Lee's lack of power will translate into the rest of his numbers by seasons end. He's already down to a 937 OPS for the year, and is only at 809 in May. That's not killing the team bad, but it's certainly not dependable middle of the order hitter good either. Lee is struggling. Lee was bad at the end of 2006 and the wrist ramained a concern throughout the offseason. It's now May 29, Lee is 5th on the team in HR for a team that is in the bottom half of the league for HR as a whole. It's a very big problem, one of many, no doubt, but a very big problem.

 

If Lee doesn't start hitting homeruns, his average is going to plummet, and his overall production numbers will be lower.

[rynefan]

Again, I agree with jersey. Lee has been struggling lately, and he hasn't been clutch much at all this season. How many times has he come up in the last month with the ability to put the team ahead late in the game, and he hasn't done it? I am concerned that the home run thing is indicative of the bigger picture for his season, but I'm more concerned that, as a team leader, he is not able to get the job done very often when it counts most, aka, clutch situations.

[CubColtPacer]

Again, I agree with jersey. Lee has been struggling lately, and he hasn't been clutch much at all this season. How many times has he come up in the last month with the ability to put the team ahead late in the game, and he hasn't done it? I am concerned that the home run thing is indicative of the bigger picture for his season, but I'm more concerned that, as a team leader, he is not able to get the job done very often when it counts most, aka, clutch situations.

 

Derrek Lee with runners in scoring position this year-.467/.538/.778

 

I can think of 3 situations just in the last week and a half where he has done the job-the grand slam against the White Sox, and the single to give the Cubs the 1-0 against the Dodgers in the 8th on Sunday. Plus, he had the single yesterday in the 9th to bring up Ramirez with a chance to win the game.

 

Lee has definitely not had a problem in clutch situations.

[Keener98]

Again, I agree with jersey. Lee has been struggling lately, and he hasn't been clutch much at all this season. How many times has he come up in the last month with the ability to put the team ahead late in the game, and he hasn't done it? I am concerned that the home run thing is indicative of the bigger picture for his season, but I'm more concerned that, as a team leader, he is not able to get the job done very often when it counts most, aka, clutch situations.

 

Lee with 2 outs runners on .310 avg .412 obp

Lee with man on 3rd less than 2 outs .444 avg .545 Obp

Lee with RISP .457 avg .528 Obp

 

 

You were saying?

[jersey cubs fan]

The clutch talk only distracts from the real issue. Lee isn't hitting and his power has been gone all year. The distraction of his doubles streak has caused many to ignore it, but the lack of power is a huge problem for a guy expected to be a middle of the order force.

[Keener98]

The clutch talk only distracts from the real issue. Lee isn't hitting and his power has been gone all year. The distraction of his doubles streak has caused many to ignore it, but the lack of power is a huge problem for a guy expected to be a middle of the order force.

 

I agree the power loss is a big issue. I really dont understand how Lee, Soriano, and hell even Jones, cannot suddenly hit the ball out of the park. Its getting too deep into the season to keep saying its early the power will come.

[Productive Outs]

The clutch talk only distracts from the real issue. Lee isn't hitting and his power has been gone all year. The distraction of his doubles streak has caused many to ignore it, but the lack of power is a huge problem for a guy expected to be a middle of the order force.

 

when Lee's average drops to the .290 range, his slugging percentage will be around .510 based on his career IsoP. he's obviously not hitting for power like he did earlier in his career, so i would expect his slugging percentage to drop to the .470 range, making Lee a .290/.360/.470 player.

[CubColtPacer]

The clutch talk only distracts from the real issue. Lee isn't hitting and his power has been gone all year. The distraction of his doubles streak has caused many to ignore it, but the lack of power is a huge problem for a guy expected to be a middle of the order force.

 

when Lee's average drops to the .290 range, his slugging percentage will be around .510 based on his career IsoP. he's obviously not hitting for power like he did earlier in his career, so i would expect his slugging percentage to drop to the .470 range, making Lee a .290/.360/.470 player.

 

I doubt Lee's average falls that far. He's a much better pure hitter than he ever has been before, and one of the better ones in the league. I would guess he'd be somewhere between .310 and .320 on the season.

[jersey cubs fan]

The clutch talk only distracts from the real issue. Lee isn't hitting and his power has been gone all year. The distraction of his doubles streak has caused many to ignore it, but the lack of power is a huge problem for a guy expected to be a middle of the order force.

 

when Lee's average drops to the .290 range, his slugging percentage will be around .510 based on his career IsoP. he's obviously not hitting for power like he did earlier in his career, so i would expect his slugging percentage to drop to the .470 range, making Lee a .290/.360/.470 player.

 

I doubt Lee falls that far. He's a much better pure hitter than he ever has been before, and one of the better ones in the league. I would guess he'd be somewhere between .310 and .320 on the season.

 

He will have to up the HR totals if he wants to maintain that average.

[JeffH]

The Cubs are effectively playing with Bill Buckner at 1B and Greg Gross in LF.

 

Is it any wonder we can't score runs?

[CubColtPacer]

The clutch talk only distracts from the real issue. Lee isn't hitting and his power has been gone all year. The distraction of his doubles streak has caused many to ignore it, but the lack of power is a huge problem for a guy expected to be a middle of the order force.

 

when Lee's average drops to the .290 range, his slugging percentage will be around .510 based on his career IsoP. he's obviously not hitting for power like he did earlier in his career, so i would expect his slugging percentage to drop to the .470 range, making Lee a .290/.360/.470 player.

 

I doubt Lee falls that far. He's a much better pure hitter than he ever has been before, and one of the better ones in the league. I would guess he'd be somewhere between .310 and .320 on the season.

 

He will have to up the HR totals if he wants to maintain that average.

 

I don't see why-several hitters hit .310 or better in the major leagues last year and had less than 20 home runs.

 

Joe Mauer, Freddy Sanchez, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Ichiro Suzuki, Carlos Guillen, Reed Johnson, Paul Lo Duca, Victor Martinez, Michael Young, Gary Matthews Jr.

 

Even if Lee didn't up his HR totals, what keeps him from joining that group? He's patient and he hits the ball to all fields. He strikes out a lot, but not much more than Jeter or Michael Young (or Miguel Cabrera-who didn't make this list, but only hit 26 home runs last year, struck out 108 times, and still batted .339 in 576 at-bats). Lee doesn't have the ability to sustain a .350 average without the home runs, but I don't see a reason why he couldn't sustain a .310 average.