5th Starter Battle Down to Miller vs Guzman

[BigbadB]

Errands sidetracked me from getting to watch Guzman pitch all the innings he did pitch. From what I did see (1st and part of the 2nd), his breaking pitch was dynomite. He was spotting it real well. His fastball was consistently in the strike zone as well.

 

Without a change up, you cannot consistently be in the strike zone on each pitch. When you have a guy down 0-2, you need at least 1 throw away pitch. Something outside of the zone. You have to deceive the hitter a little bit. If everything you throw is in the strike zone, hitters will get too comfortable.

 

And nothing looks worse for a pitcher (outside of walking people consistently) than to give up 0-2 hits for extra bases, IMO.

[CubColtPacer]

 

Guzman's problems yesterday were exactly what Lou said they were. He didn't finsih guys off. He had 0 ks. I think a lot of it had to do with luck but he also was getting the ball up in the zone too often.

 

Friken Juan Uribe had a day yesterday. Guzman should have struck him out twice.

 

The defense didn't help (I looking at you Floyd), but Guzman "let" too many balls get put into play. That's the reason why why FIPS/DIPS is such an important stat.

 

There's no doubt that he didn't finish some guys off (0-2 counts). He will have to show that he can change speeds too. However, bad defense extended his pitch count and made him pitch under more pressure than necessary. The ball hit to Floyd probably should have been caught or resulted in no more than a single--playing it into a 2 run triple was ridiculous. Pie trying to throw a runner out at third helped a runner move into 2B (he eventually scored), and Theriot let two balls get by him that a regular third baseman sucks up.

 

Defense is important. Guzman's line would have looked a lot better had some plays been made behind him.

 

I think you're overstating a little bit the defensive ineffectiveness. The Floyd ball was going to be a single regardless IMO-turning it into a triple was ridiculous, but even if you take that one and the Pie mistake together you only get a savings of 1 run-1 would have scored regardless in that inning. Theriot did let at least one get by him that Aramis would have had, maybe two.

 

Also, the defense helped Guzman at times. In the 1st, they were really good to him-after Guzman let Posednik on, Blanco gunned him down with a great throw, and then Lee made a great play or else Erstad would have gotten on as well. Guzman could have easily given up a run for the 1st if not for some better than normal defense behind him that inning.

Edited March 17, 2007 by CubColtPacer

[CubinNY]

Can we merge this thread with the other one on the 5th starter?

 

I'm having a hard time knowing in which thread to post. :D

[98navigator]

As I see it, 2 extra runs were scored because of defensive lapses. That doesn't excuse Guzman for being hittable, I'm just saying that his line looks worse than it should. let's be honest, Wade Miller has been very hittable this Spring as well (the defense has helped him get out of a few jams). The difference is that Miller has been able to fool hitters with inferior stuff (and Guzman hasn't). Guzman is going to have to change speeds/change up to trick the hitters.

[CubColtPacer]

As I see it, 2 extra runs were scored because of defensive lapses. That doesn't excuse Guzman for being hittable, I'm just saying that his line looks worse than it should. let's be honest, Wade Miller has been very hittable this Spring as well (the defense has helped him get out of a few jams). The difference, right now, is that Miller has been able to fool hitters with inferior stuff (and Guzman hasn't). Guzman is going to have to change speeds/change up to trick the hitters.

 

I would agree. Both have been very hittable this spring-Miller has been able to get much higher amounts of K's than Guzman has (Guzman-2 K's in 9.2 IP, Miller-9 K's in 9 IP). Guzman is still learning to trust some of his pitches again-let him do that in Triple A for a while and get his confidence up.

[Laura]

If you're responding to the previous quote, please don't include an entire page of quotes. People can keep up with discussions in consecutive posts. (I edited down some of the above quotes.)

[CubColtPacer]

Sorry about that Laura-my laziness was a big contributer to the quote problems.

 

Here's an article I posted in the Prior thread as well-on page 3 there is a little nugget about the 5th starter race (talking about Prior in the he of the first sentence):

 

He is far enough behind that Piniella pretty much is not counting on him for the open fifth starter's slot behind Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis and Hill. Miller likely will open the season there, with Angel Guzman still having an outside chance.

 

He's a national writer, but he just was in camp yesterday, so he does have some idea of what's going on recently.

 

http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/story/10064632/3

[98navigator]

The Daily Southtown and Cub.com add some additional insight into Piniella's approach with Guzman.

 

"He threw a lot of strikes, made some mistakes with two strikes and no balls," Piniella said. "And the one thing, too, they don't swing and miss at them much. I've got to figure out why. He gets two strikes and doesn't put the hitters away."

 

Piniella said the Cubs defense didn't help the young hurler.

 

"The reality is if you don't catch the damn thing, you don't win," Piniella said. "You've got to make plays to help your pitcher out."

 

Piniella even went behind home plate to talk to the Cubs scouts to see if they could pick up something in Guzman's delivery. Since Friday's game was televised, Piniella and the coaching staff will look at the film to see if there is something that gives hitters an edge.

 

"This kid here, he's got good stuff, there's no question," Piniella said. "He pounded the strike zone today, which is really good to see... We'll see. I was impressed with the kid."

 

Call me crazy, but these quotes sound like Lou realizes that Guzman has more upside than Miller and he's going to do whatever possible to help Angel pitch better in his next start (even if that requires studying film to see if he's tipping his pitches). Frankly, this is more than I would expect from a manager in ST--perhaps I'm jaded by Baker (who would have already given the spot to Miller).

 

 

Ozzie Guillen is rooting for his Venezuelan countryman (I know Guillen is now a naturalized US citizen...)

 

White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen came over to talk to Guzman as he left the field. "He just told me I threw the ball well, and there are some little things I have to take care of," Guzman said. "He said, 'Work hard and take the job. They put it in your hands. Just take it.'"

[RichHillIsABeast]

That was nice of Ozzie.

[soccer10k]

Ozzie Guillen is rooting for his Venezuelan countryman (I know Guillen is now a naturalized US citizen...)

 

White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen came over to talk to Guzman as he left the field. "He just told me I threw the ball well, and there are some little things I have to take care of," Guzman said. "He said, 'Work hard and take the job. They put it in your hands. Just take it.'"

 

In Venezuela, that means Ozzie thinks Guzman sucks.

[98navigator]

You've got to love Lou's honesty!!

 

Dave Van Dyck/Tribune

 

Piniella on the fifth starter race between Wade Miller and Angel Guzman: "Is Miller the front-runner? Yeah, he is. In fairness, let's give everyone one more turn" before making it official. … What does Piniella see in Neal Cotts? "I see he gives up runs every time he pitches," Piniella said. Cotts has allowed eight runs in eight innings, including two Saturday.

[shortseason]

I've been gone for a while here on the off-day, so unless somebody has mentioned this, you can option a guy as many times as you want during the year. He is not "out of options" until next year.

 

How many options does Cotts have left?

[mg420]

I've been gone for a while here on the off-day, so unless somebody has mentioned this, you can option a guy as many times as you want during the year. He is not "out of options" until next year.

 

How many options does Cotts have left?

2 according to this page:

http://mvn.com/mlb-cubs/2007/02/15/cubs-2007-spring-training-roster-contracts-and-options/

 

lots of good cubs info there btw.

[NewUserName]

So after today is the race between Guzman and Miller closing again. Miller wasnt very good today according to the box score. I dont know about the defense behind him though?

[Soul]

They'll just go with Miller -- keep Gooz @ Iowa, wait for Miller or Marquis to start blowing it.

 

Gooz'll be up sooner rather than later. Someone's going to have a bad, bad year out of Z,Lilly,Marquis,Hill, & Miller. It just stands to reason, one will royally suck (and hopefully ONLY one). And that'll be Gooz's chance.

[CubColtPacer]

Does the fact that Guzman pitched today mean that the 5th starter battle is over? I found it interesting that they put him in a situation where he could only go one inning, instead of at least pitching him for a few innings after another pitcher like they are doing with Hill. That certainly doesn't suggest that they are looking him for a starter position in the majors anymore.

[98navigator]

The battle is basically over. Miller is the fifth starter and Guzman is trying to win the final bullpen spot as a long reliever.

 

Tribune

 

Cubs.com

 

Suntimes

 

Daily Herald.com

[mg420]

Does the fact that Guzman pitched today mean that the 5th starter battle is over? I found it interesting that they put him in a situation where he could only go one inning, instead of at least pitching him for a few innings after another pitcher like they are doing with Hill. That certainly doesn't suggest that they are looking him for a starter position in the majors anymore.

 

i think it's millers job to lose at this point. the big question is with wuertz back and wood hurt, who gets the open pen spot-guzman or cherry? cherry has obviously earned it over guzman and it would be a shame imo to send him back to the minors. if dempster tanks and marmol cant find his control cherry might end up closing some games for the cubs.

[Laura]

Lilly has never pitched 200 innings (came close in '04).

 

Miller has once ... in 2001.

 

Whether Marquis can be effective for anywhere close to 200 innings is still a question.

 

Although I hope they end up in a 4-way tie for the Cy with Z, I'd bet on someone else getting a chance or three this season.

[VVMattVV]

Does the fact that Guzman pitched today mean that the 5th starter battle is over? I found it interesting that they put him in a situation where he could only go one inning, instead of at least pitching him for a few innings after another pitcher like they are doing with Hill. That certainly doesn't suggest that they are looking him for a starter position in the majors anymore.

 

i think it's millers job to lose at this point. the big question is with wuertz back and wood hurt, who gets the open pen spot-guzman or cherry? cherry has obviously earned it over guzman and it would be a shame imo to send him back to the minors. if dempster tanks and marmol cant find his control cherry might end up closing some games for the cubs.

 

I don't see how Cherry has obviously earned it over Guzman. Based on what, only Spring Training appearances?

 

If Dempster does tank, I'd much rather have Howry or Wuertz closing over Cherry.

[CubColtPacer]

Lilly has never pitched 200 innings (came close in '04).

 

Miller has once ... in 2001.

 

Whether Marquis can be effective for anywhere close to 200 innings is still a question.

 

Although I hope they end up in a 4-way tie for the Cy with Z, I'd bet on someone else getting a chance or three this season.

 

Yup-that's exactly why I wanted Miller to get the start in the first place. There will be a time and a place when another starter is needed, and Guzman will be available at that time.

 

Although IP might be a slightly misleading way to look at that-Lilly hasn't reached 200 innings because he can't get deep into games, not because he misses starts (32 starts 3 out of the last 4 years). I don't remember Hill having injury concerns about him, and they will stick with an ineffective Marquis for at least a month or month and a half, and of course there is still a decent chance for him to be effective.

 

Miller is still the biggest risk, and the likelihood is that he'll miss some starts that Guzman will take, and one other starter will probably miss starts for injury/ineffectiveness, but it's probably up in the air which of the 4 it will be.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Does the fact that Guzman pitched today mean that the 5th starter battle is over? I found it interesting that they put him in a situation where he could only go one inning, instead of at least pitching him for a few innings after another pitcher like they are doing with Hill. That certainly doesn't suggest that they are looking him for a starter position in the majors anymore.

 

i think it's millers job to lose at this point. the big question is with wuertz back and wood hurt, who gets the open pen spot-guzman or cherry? cherry has obviously earned it over guzman and it would be a shame imo to send him back to the minors. if dempster tanks and marmol cant find his control cherry might end up closing some games for the cubs.

 

I don't see why Marmol and Cherry would get many save opportunities if Dempster struggles. Why not Wood, Howry or Weurtz?