5th Starter Battle Down to Miller vs Guzman

[rawaction]

shouldn't we run with guzman and try to get something out of him while he's healthy? this seems like a no-brainer. he's probably going to get hurt again, let's get as much value out of the guy as we can before that happens.

 

That's always been my thinking.

[NewUserName]

If they determine that Guzman is clearly better, then they should start him. If they decide that it's close, Miller should get the nod.

 

This is backward thinking. If its close it should go to Guzman. Miller should only get the nod if he is clearly better. I fear this is going to be another case of the Cubs stunting the progression of a young player for the opportunity to give a mediocre veteran with no upside a chance to improve.

[Sammy Sofa]

If they determine that Guzman is clearly better, then they should start him. If they decide that it's close, Miller should get the nod.

 

This is backward thinking. If its close it should go to Guzman. Miller should only get the nod if he is clearly better. I fear this is going to be another case of the Cubs stunting the progression of a young player for the opportunity to give a mediocre veteran with no upside a chance to improve.

 

The upside is it ideally shows him off and gets the Cubs maximum return ASAP in a trade. I don't think anyone here wants Miller as a long term starter over Angel.

[A New Era]

I'd rather see Guzman win the job with superior performance. It seems like his confidence would be better starting the season with the cubs because he pitched better than his compitition. Rather than being called up a few weeks into the season because someone went down.

 

I highly doubt that would really have any effect on how he pitches.

 

I don't. These are still human beings after all. And Guzman is a young one at that. Do you not beleive confidence breeds better pitching? Or do you just think that being called up sometime a month into the season will not give him any more jitters than if he were to start the season with the club? All I'm saying is he'd be slightly better off starting the season with the cubs than being called up later.

[goonys evil twin]

I'd rather see Guzman win the job with superior performance. It seems like his confidence would be better starting the season with the cubs because he pitched better than his compitition. Rather than being called up a few weeks into the season because someone went down.

 

I highly doubt that would really have any effect on how he pitches.

 

I don't. These are still human beings after all. And Guzman is a young one at that. Do you not beleive confidence breeds better pitching? Or do you just think that being called up sometime a month into the season will not give him any more jitters than if he were to start the season with the club?

 

I just think it's kind of ridiculous to suggest he'll pout if he's only called up because somebody went down, and it'll effect his pitching. They are human beings, but they are also professionals. And in Guzman's case, a professional with many years of pro experience.

[bc2k]

I'm pulling for Guzman.

 

I don't think Miller would be a good candidate for the bullpen due to his shoulder. I think there'd be more stress and chance of re-injury if he were pitching on back-to-back days as opposed to once every five.

[A New Era]

I'd rather see Guzman win the job with superior performance. It seems like his confidence would be better starting the season with the cubs because he pitched better than his compitition. Rather than being called up a few weeks into the season because someone went down.

 

I highly doubt that would really have any effect on how he pitches.

 

I don't. These are still human beings after all. And Guzman is a young one at that. Do you not beleive confidence breeds better pitching? Or do you just think that being called up sometime a month into the season will not give him any more jitters than if he were to start the season with the club?

 

I just think it's kind of ridiculous to suggest he'll pout if he's only called up because somebody went down, and it'll effect his pitching. They are human beings, but they are also professionals. And in Guzman's case, a professional with many years of pro experience.

 

I never said he'd pout, did I. I said it might effect his confidence. If he beats out everyone in spring training, that IS a boost to confidence, don't you think?

[CubColtPacer]

If they determine that Guzman is clearly better, then they should start him. If they decide that it's close, Miller should get the nod.

 

This is backward thinking. If its close it should go to Guzman. Miller should only get the nod if he is clearly better. I fear this is going to be another case of the Cubs stunting the progression of a young player for the opportunity to give a mediocre veteran with no upside a chance to improve.

 

It's not just those two players in a vacuum though. If Guzman wins the job:

 

Miller is traded for not very much

If somebody goes down or is ineffective, then the next pitchers in line are Prior (if he's healthy by then), Cotts (who hasn't been effective at all), Marshall (who is well behind and not might be ready to pitch at all, let alone be effective) and Mateo (who is not major league ready)

 

If Miller wins the job:

 

Miller either gets the chance to increase his trade value or he is ineffective and released after a while-not much loss if we didn't get much for him in the first scenario, and a possible gain.

If somebody goes down or is ineffective, Guzman is waiting in the wings to take over.

 

If they are similar pitchers, it's better overall for the Cubs this year to go with Miller to start off with-it gives you much more of a margin for error.

[NewUserName]

If they determine that Guzman is clearly better, then they should start him. If they decide that it's close, Miller should get the nod.

 

This is backward thinking. If its close it should go to Guzman. Miller should only get the nod if he is clearly better. I fear this is going to be another case of the Cubs stunting the progression of a young player for the opportunity to give a mediocre veteran with no upside a chance to improve.

 

It's not just those two players in a vacuum though. If Guzman wins the job:

 

Miller is traded for not very much

If somebody goes down or is ineffective, then the next pitchers in line are Prior (if he's healthy by then), Cotts (who hasn't been effective at all), Marshall (who is well behind and not might be ready to pitch at all, let alone be effective) and Mateo (who is not major league ready)

 

If Miller wins the job:

 

Miller either gets the chance to increase his trade value or he is ineffective and released after a while-not much loss if we didn't get much for him in the first scenario, and a possible gain.

If somebody goes down or is ineffective, Guzman is waiting in the wings to take over.

 

If they are similar pitchers, it's better overall for the Cubs this year to go with Miller to start off with-it gives you much more of a margin for error.

 

On the surface I wouldnt disagree with anything you post here. However you dont show any downside to sending Guzman down. At some point a player is going to have to pitch and probably struggle at the major league level. If there is a good chance that Guzman will be better than Miller(certainly more potential) and has already reached a level of success at the previous level(Guzman had a solid AAA season when there), you will end up risking that you MAY stunt his development. You will probably not make him more major league ready by sending him down. The only thing that will probably help him progress to the next level is to go through growing pains in the major leagues. I would say the sooner the better. It would be better for the Cubs longterm to start Guzman now.

 

Secondly the only way that Miller gets any real trade is if he performs at a level that we wouldnt trade him anyway. So the trying to increase his trade value arguement is really not important

[CubColtPacer]

If they determine that Guzman is clearly better, then they should start him. If they decide that it's close, Miller should get the nod.

 

This is backward thinking. If its close it should go to Guzman. Miller should only get the nod if he is clearly better. I fear this is going to be another case of the Cubs stunting the progression of a young player for the opportunity to give a mediocre veteran with no upside a chance to improve.

 

It's not just those two players in a vacuum though. If Guzman wins the job:

 

Miller is traded for not very much

If somebody goes down or is ineffective, then the next pitchers in line are Prior (if he's healthy by then), Cotts (who hasn't been effective at all), Marshall (who is well behind and not might be ready to pitch at all, let alone be effective) and Mateo (who is not major league ready)

 

If Miller wins the job:

 

Miller either gets the chance to increase his trade value or he is ineffective and released after a while-not much loss if we didn't get much for him in the first scenario, and a possible gain.

If somebody goes down or is ineffective, Guzman is waiting in the wings to take over.

 

If they are similar pitchers, it's better overall for the Cubs this year to go with Miller to start off with-it gives you much more of a margin for error.

 

On the surface I wouldnt disagree with anything you post here. However you dont show any downside to sending Guzman down. At some point a player is going to have to pitch and probably struggle at the major league level. If there is a good chance that Guzman will be better than Miller(certainly more potential) and has already reached a level of success at the previous level(Guzman had a solid AAA season when there), you will end up risking that you MAY stunt his development. You will probably not make him more major league ready by sending him down. The only thing that will probably help him progress to the next level is to go through growing pains in the major leagues. I would say the sooner the better. It would be better for the Cubs longterm to start Guzman now.

 

Secondly the only way that Miller gets any real trade is if he performs at a level that we wouldnt trade him anyway. So the trying to increase his trade value arguement is really not important

 

I agree that the Cubs would be better long-term by having Guzman start-but the Cubs are in a win now mode, and they have to figure what is best for 2007 first. It is best for 2007 to have Miller start at the beginning of the season if they are performing similarly in ST.

Could it hamper Guzman's development? Maybe-but it's not like he tore up Triple A last year. The main thing for his development coming off the injuries right now is to throw some innings. I won't be unhappy at all if Guzman breaks with the major league club-I think he's ML ready. I do, however, think if Miller is similar that gives the club the best chance at winning this year (gives them the most options) and a month or even a few more months in the minors will not likely harm Guzman significantly right now. He is just starting to find all his pitches again-he still could use some innings where he grows in confidence throwing all of them, and more than he can get in winter league, if that be the majors or the minors.

[98navigator]

Lou was unwilling to rank the 5th starter candidates after yesterday's game (he said he would prior to the game). To me, it signals that Lou wants to see more from Guzman even though he surrendered 5 ER in 3 1/3 IP and Miller hasn't given up as much as 5 earned runs in any of his starts.

 

Bruce Miles/Daily Herald

 

“(Guzman), he’s got good stuff, there is no question,’’ said Cubs manager Lou Piniella. “He pounded the strike zone today, which is really good to see from my perspective. But when you need to put away a hitter, he just doesn’t.’’

 

Piniella said the competition is still up for grabs.

 

“Don’t put me on the spot yet,’’ Piniella said. “You can put me on the spot a week from now.’’

 

Suntimes

 

''Look, Miller basically has a better feel for pitching. He has more experience. I thought Miller threw the ball well here the other day. He changes speeds, he used his changeup. This kid probably didn't use a changeup at all today, so he is basically pitching with two pitches.''

 

Piniella also was puzzled as to why Guzman wasn't putting away hitters after getting ahead in the count.

 

''He threw a lot of strikes, made some mistakes with two strikes and no balls. And the one thing, too, they don't swing and miss at them much,'' Piniella said. ''When you're trying to make a baseball team, I don't think you need to be reminded all that much. And I'm not being critical. I'm being very matter-of-fact because I like the kid's arm. And there is no reason, with a good arm like that, he can't be a really nice major-league pitcher.''

 

With the words Lou used to describe Wade Miller, it's almost surprising that he didn't come out and say Miller was leading or had won the spot. Apparently, Lou is willing to give Guzman one last shot to show he can put away hitters. I think it's also fair to say that Lou knows the defense contributed to some of the runs that scored. Lou was not impressed:

 

“Truthfully, we’ve got to play better defensively,’’ Piniella said. “I mean, we can talk about having a good ballclub here in Chicago, but we better catch the (darn) thing better than we did today. I mean, you’ve got to help these pitchers out.

 

“Too many routine balls that you say, ‘Yeah!’ when they hit them, then all of a sudden, we don’t make the plays. I’ll tell you this, I’m going to put the best club I can defensively on the field because that’s the way you win baseball games.’’

 

Cliff Floyd's playing time is in jeopardy and so is Theriot's at third base. :lol: The team also needs to work on throwing to the right base to keep runners from moving up...

Edited March 17, 2007 by 98navigator

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Lou was unwilling to rank the 5th starter candidates after yesterday's game (he said he would prior to the game). To me, it signals that Lou wants to see more from Guzman even though he surrendered 5 ER in 3 1/3 IP and Miller hasn't given up as much as 5 earned runs in any of his starts.

 

Bruce Miles/Daily Herald

 

“(Guzman), he’s got good stuff, there is no question,’’ said Cubs manager Lou Piniella. “He pounded the strike zone today, which is really good to see from my perspective. But when you need to put away a hitter, he just doesn’t.’’

 

Piniella said the competition is still up for grabs.

 

“Don’t put me on the spot yet,’’ Piniella said. “You can put me on the spot a week from now.’’

 

Suntimes

 

''Look, Miller basically has a better feel for pitching. He has more experience. I thought Miller threw the ball well here the other day. He changes speeds, he used his changeup. This kid probably didn't use a changeup at all today, so he is basically pitching with two pitches.''

 

Piniella also was puzzled as to why Guzman wasn't putting away hitters after getting ahead in the count.

 

''He threw a lot of strikes, made some mistakes with two strikes and no balls. And the one thing, too, they don't swing and miss at them much,'' Piniella said. ''When you're trying to make a baseball team, I don't think you need to be reminded all that much. And I'm not being critical. I'm being very matter-of-fact because I like the kid's arm. And there is no reason, with a good arm like that, he can't be a really nice major-league pitcher.''

 

With the words Lou used to describe Wade Miller, it's almost surprising that he didn't come out and say Miller was leading or had won the spot. Appearently, Lou is willing to give Guzman one last shot to show he can put away hitters. I think it's also fair to say that Lou knows the defense contributed to some of the runs that scored. Lou was not impressed:

 

“Truthfully, we’ve got to play better defensively,’’ Piniella said. “I mean, we can talk about having a good ballclub here in Chicago, but we better catch the (darn) thing better than we did today. I mean, you’ve got to help these pitchers out.

 

“Too many routine balls that you say, ‘Yeah!’ when they hit them, then all of a sudden, we don’t make the plays. I’ll tell you this, I’m going to put the best club I can defensively on the field because that’s the way you win baseball games.’’

 

Cliff Floyd's playing time is in jeopardy and so is Theriot's at third base. :lol: The team also needs to work on throwing to the right base to keep runners from moving up...

 

Theriot will only be at third base a few games this season, unless Ramirez goes down with an injury. Even then, I wouldn't be surprised to see Moore come up to handle it during that span.

 

Theriot's struggles at third might make the Cubs look for an infielder who they believe can handle it over there, however. Right now, the only choice for a backup to Ramirez would be Theriot or shifting DeRosa there.

[Danny82]

I would think it would make more sense that, on days that Ramirez needs a break, DeRosa would handle 3B and Theriot 2B.

[CubinNY]

Cliff Flyod struggling with the glove might actually be the best thing for the Cubs offense. His bat looked slow to me, but then again he is behind a little.

 

I thought Theroit wasn't a 3rd baseman? Anyway, he looked good to me at the plate yesterday even though he struck out twice. Both of those 3 and 2 pitches were pitcher's strikes.

 

Edit: as far a 5th starter goes, I think Lou is leaning toward Miller. If/when Prior get healthy Miller or Guzman will be traded, IMO.

[Danny82]

Miller might be traded, sure.

 

I see virtually no reason why they would trade Guzman though. He's young, he's cheap, and he gives them the starting pitching depth that I think they've come to appreciate after last season.

[98navigator]

If Guzman doesn't step up in his next start, Lou may be forced to go with Miller. Although, I'm not sure about the quality of hitters Miller has faced (I'd like to see him oppose the Sox everyday lineup). IMO, Miller has very little upside.

 

Guzman will be out of options next Spring. The Cubs should be working to cultivate his arm for use in the ML rotation instead of going with a retread like Miller!

 

Some tough decisions will have to be made. There is bound to be a trade (or two) between now and the start of the season.

Edited March 17, 2007 by 98navigator

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If Miller is the fifth starter, Guzman should be the long man in the pen with Cotts working his trade in Iowa.

[98navigator]

If Miller is the fifth starter, Guzman should be the long man in the pen with Cotts working his trade in Iowa.

 

I agree but I don't see Cotts being sent down. It would be like the Cubs admitting that the Sox got the better of the trade (although, Aardsma is in jeopardy of not making their team as well)--I heard Paul Sullivan make this point on the radio-- Cotts may be in the bullpen whether we like it or not.

 

Hendry may force Lou's hand on this one.

[CubColtPacer]

If Guzman doesn't step up in his next start, Lou may be forced to go with Miller. Although, I'm not sure about the quality of hitters Miller has faced (I'd like to see him oppose the Sox everyday lineup). IMO, Miller has very little upside.

 

Guzman will be out of options next Spring. The Cubs should be working to cultivate his arm for use in the ML rotation instead of going with a retread like Miller!

 

Some tough decisions will have to be made. There is bound to be a trade (or two) between now and the start of the season.

 

I just checked-Miller faced the entire Diamondbacks starting lineup (all 8 of them) last time out, and the time before that he faced about half the Padres hitters with the rest of them being their major league backups, not their minor leaguers (for example, Walker in for M. Giles).

[BigbadB]

If Miller is the fifth starter, Guzman should be the long man in the pen with Cotts working his trade in Iowa.

 

I agree but I don't see Cotts being sent down. It would be like the Cubs admitting that the Sox got the better of the trade (although, Aardsma is in jeopardy of not making their team as well)--I heard Paul Sullivan make this point on the radio-- Cotts may be in the bullpen whether we like it or not.

 

Hendry may force Lou's hand on this one.

 

That would sorta go against the grain of everything Lou has been saying during Spring Training. He said he was going to take the best guys with him to Chicago. Cotts is not one of those guys right now.

[CubColtPacer]

If Miller is the fifth starter, Guzman should be the long man in the pen with Cotts working his trade in Iowa.

 

I agree but I don't see Cotts being sent down. It would be like the Cubs admitting that the Sox got the better of the trade (although, Aardsma is in jeopardy of not making their team as well)--I heard Paul Sullivan make this point on the radio-- Cotts may be in the bullpen whether we like it or not.

 

Hendry may force Lou's hand on this one.

 

That would sorta go against the grain of everything Lou has been saying during Spring Training. He said he was going to take the best guys with him to Chicago. Cotts is not one of those guys right now.

 

The problem is that he also said that he's not looking at Guzman as a reliever whatsoever-which if Guzman is sent to Iowa just so he can start, Cotts may slide into a bullpen role almost by default as the only long man.

[98navigator]

If Guzman doesn't step up in his next start, Lou may be forced to go with Miller. Although, I'm not sure about the quality of hitters Miller has faced (I'd like to see him oppose the Sox everyday lineup). IMO, Miller has very little upside.

 

Guzman will be out of options next Spring. The Cubs should be working to cultivate his arm for use in the ML rotation instead of going with a retread like Miller!

 

Some tough decisions will have to be made. There is bound to be a trade (or two) between now and the start of the season.

 

I just checked-Miller faced the entire Diamondbacks starting lineup (all 8 of them) last time out, and the time before that he faced about half the Padres hitters with the rest of them being their major league backups, not their minor leaguers (for example, Walker in for M. Giles).

 

Yeah, you're right, I listened to those games. IIRC, he was helped a lot by his defense; Didn't he give up more hits than innings pitched (or was that Marquis)? I still think Guzman had a tougher lineup yesterday (and an inferior defensive team behind him).

 

I hope Guzman has the benefit of pitching with all of the regulars in his next start.

[98navigator]

If Miller is the fifth starter, Guzman should be the long man in the pen with Cotts working his trade in Iowa.

 

I agree but I don't see Cotts being sent down. It would be like the Cubs admitting that the Sox got the better of the trade (although, Aardsma is in jeopardy of not making their team as well)--I heard Paul Sullivan make this point on the radio-- Cotts may be in the bullpen whether we like it or not.

 

Hendry may force Lou's hand on this one.

 

That would sorta go against the grain of everything Lou has been saying during Spring Training. He said he was going to take the best guys with him to Chicago. Cotts is not one of those guys right now.

 

 

I'm sure Lou will give a strong recommendation for the players he wants but he doesn't make the final roster decisions.

[CubinNY]

If Guzman doesn't step up in his next start, Lou may be forced to go with Miller. Although, I'm not sure about the quality of hitters Miller has faced (I'd like to see him oppose the Sox everyday lineup). IMO, Miller has very little upside.

 

Guzman will be out of options next Spring. The Cubs should be working to cultivate his arm for use in the ML rotation instead of going with a retread like Miller!

 

Some tough decisions will have to be made. There is bound to be a trade (or two) between now and the start of the season.

 

I just checked-Miller faced the entire Diamondbacks starting lineup (all 8 of them) last time out, and the time before that he faced about half the Padres hitters with the rest of them being their major league backups, not their minor leaguers (for example, Walker in for M. Giles).

 

Yeah, you're right, I listened to those games. IIRC, he was helped a lot by his defense; Didn't he give up more hits than innings pitched (or was that Marquis)? I still think Guzman had a tougher lineup yesterday (and an inferior defensive team behind him).

 

I hope Guzman has the benefit of pitching with all of the regulars in his next start.

 

Guzman's problems yesterday were exactly what Lou said they were. He didn't finsih guys off. He had 0 ks. I think a lot of it had to do with luck but he also was getting the ball up in the zone too often.

 

Friken Juan Uribe had a day yesterday. Guzman should have struck him out twice.

 

The defense didn't help (I'm looking at you Floyd), but Guzman "let" too many balls get put into play. That's the reason why why FIPS/DIPS is such an important stat.

[98navigator]

If Guzman doesn't step up in his next start, Lou may be forced to go with Miller. Although, I'm not sure about the quality of hitters Miller has faced (I'd like to see him oppose the Sox everyday lineup). IMO, Miller has very little upside.

 

Guzman will be out of options next Spring. The Cubs should be working to cultivate his arm for use in the ML rotation instead of going with a retread like Miller!

 

Some tough decisions will have to be made. There is bound to be a trade (or two) between now and the start of the season.

 

I just checked-Miller faced the entire Diamondbacks starting lineup (all 8 of them) last time out, and the time before that he faced about half the Padres hitters with the rest of them being their major league backups, not their minor leaguers (for example, Walker in for M. Giles).

 

Yeah, you're right, I listened to those games. IIRC, he was helped a lot by his defense; Didn't he give up more hits than innings pitched (or was that Marquis)? I still think Guzman had a tougher lineup yesterday (and an inferior defensive team behind him).

 

I hope Guzman has the benefit of pitching with all of the regulars in his next start.

 

Guzman's problems yesterday were exactly what Lou said they were. He didn't finsih guys off. He had 0 ks. I think a lot of it had to do with luck but he also was getting the ball up in the zone too often.

 

Friken Juan Uribe had a day yesterday. Guzman should have struck him out twice.

 

The defense didn't help (I looking at you Floyd), but Guzman "let" too many balls get put into play. That's the reason why why FIPS/DIPS is such an important stat.

 

There's no doubt that he didn't finish some guys off (0-2 counts). He will have to show that he can change speeds too. However, bad defense extended his pitch count and made him pitch under more pressure than necessary. The ball hit to Floyd probably should have been caught or resulted in no more than a single--playing it into a 2 run triple was ridiculous. Pie trying to throw a runner out at third helped a runner move into 2B (he eventually scored), and Theriot let two balls get by him that a regular third baseman sucks up.

 

Defense is important. Guzman's line would have looked a lot better had some plays been made behind him.