Lou on SportsCenter

[CuseCubFan69]

I'm still waiting for someone to provide numbers to back their side of the argument up, as I did.

 

Back up what? Your numbers helped prove my point by saying that if the situation exists you can help your team score. I didn't see it say that you can't steal 3rd and if you did 100% of the time it hurts your team. I saw 92.7 which means that if you do it correctly you can take advantage. Also, these numbers are flat across the board numbers and doesn't pertain to certain situations/matchups.

 

Needing to succeed at something between 70 and 95% of the time for it to be worth it isn't a good thing. The onus is on you to provide statistical proof to back up your claims, as I have done mine.

 

The odds of successfully stealing a base are lower than the BA's of the guys who immediately follow Soriano in the batting order. This adds further weight to the assertion that Soriano stealing 3rd so he can score on a groundout/flyball/wild pitch/balk/passed ball isn't worth the corresponding risk.

 

If you feel that there are situations that warrant the risk, and can provide numbers to back the assertion that those situations are going to occur often enough to where they outweigh the built in risk, by all means, provide them. Until you do, the notion that stealing 3rd is an acceptable option with Soriano isn't going to wash. It's nothing more than rhetoric.

 

You supplied the proof for me. The 92.7 is a flat rate correct?

 

You think that that's an acceptable level of risk? If you have a 9% failure rate it becomes not worth it.

 

So you would completely abandon stealing third? What you've shown is a flat rate and the stats reflect all players that have attempted to steal third.

 

Let me ask you this. How often does a player hit a home run per at bat? Is it less than 9% and if it is shouldn't he forgo that and just try to hit a single which increases his chances to get on base?

[CubColtPacer]

BTW, one more thing to be noted-Lou Piniella has been cited for his teams annually having one of the best SB percentages in the league-so for all league managers that the Cubs can have, Piniella will likely hurt the team least with the stolen base.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2607

[USSoccer]

 

So you would completely abandon stealing third? What you've shown is a flat rate and the stats reflect all players that have attempted to steal third.

 

Let me ask you this. How often does a player hit a home run per at bat? Is it less than 9% and if it is shouldn't he forgo that and just try to hit a single which increases his chances to get on base?

 

That's specious reasoning. An AB can have multiple outcomes that result in a runner reaching without an out. A stolen base attempt has 2 outcomes. Soriano had a 68% success rate stealing last season. He had 3 net SB's. That's bad.

 

It is a bad idea, with few exceptions, to take a runner at 2nd and have him try and steal 3rd.

[CuseCubFan69]

 

So you would completely abandon stealing third? What you've shown is a flat rate and the stats reflect all players that have attempted to steal third.

 

Let me ask you this. How often does a player hit a home run per at bat? Is it less than 9% and if it is shouldn't he forgo that and just try to hit a single which increases his chances to get on base?

 

That's specious reasoning. An AB can have multiple outcomes that result in a runner reaching without an out. A stolen base attempt has 2 outcomes. Soriano had a 68% success rate stealing last season. He had 3 net SB's. That's bad.

 

It is a bad idea, with few exceptions, to take a runner at 2nd and have him try and steal 3rd.

 

That's my point soccer, the few exceptions and I have never said all the time. You pick your spots and the post BbB just made gives me more confidence that Lou will do just that.

[imb]

Let me ask you this. How often does a player hit a home run per at bat? Is it less than 9% and if it is shouldn't he forgo that and just try to hit a single which increases his chances to get on base?

 

You know, there is a difference between an actual study done with real numbers, and then something like this, that you just got flustered and made up.

[CuseCubFan69]

Let me ask you this. How often does a player hit a home run per at bat? Is it less than 9% and if it is shouldn't he forgo that and just try to hit a single which increases his chances to get on base?

 

You know, there is a difference between an actual study done with real numbers, and then something like this, that you just got flustered and made up.

 

Like the .01 percent?

[David]

Let me ask you this. How often does a player hit a home run per at bat? Is it less than 9% and if it is shouldn't he forgo that and just try to hit a single which increases his chances to get on base?

 

You know, there is a difference between an actual study done with real numbers, and then something like this, that you just got flustered and made up.

 

I LOLed...

 

Anyway, a hitter shouldn't go up to the plate trying to hit a home run or trying to hit a single. For the most part, he should just try to hit the ball hard, and let the rest sort itself out once the ball leaves his bat.

[imb]

Let me ask you this. How often does a player hit a home run per at bat? Is it less than 9% and if it is shouldn't he forgo that and just try to hit a single which increases his chances to get on base?

 

You know, there is a difference between an actual study done with real numbers, and then something like this, that you just got flustered and made up.

 

Like the .01 percent?

 

No, that is how often I would actually like Soriano to attempt a steal of third base with Lee, Ramirez, Barrett and Jones coming up behind him.

[BigbadB]

 

So you would completely abandon stealing third? What you've shown is a flat rate and the stats reflect all players that have attempted to steal third.

 

Let me ask you this. How often does a player hit a home run per at bat? Is it less than 9% and if it is shouldn't he forgo that and just try to hit a single which increases his chances to get on base?

 

That's specious reasoning. An AB can have multiple outcomes that result in a runner reaching without an out. A stolen base attempt has 2 outcomes. Soriano had a 68% success rate stealing last season. He had 3 net SB's. That's bad.

 

It is a bad idea, with few exceptions, to take a runner at 2nd and have him try and steal 3rd.

 

That's my point soccer, the few exceptions and I have never said all the time. You pick your spots and the post BbB just made gives me more confidence that Lou will do just that.

 

What point did I make? I haven't made a single post in this thread until now.

Edited February 19, 2007 by BigbadB

[CuseCubFan69]

Let me ask you this. How often does a player hit a home run per at bat? Is it less than 9% and if it is shouldn't he forgo that and just try to hit a single which increases his chances to get on base?

 

You know, there is a difference between an actual study done with real numbers, and then something like this, that you just got flustered and made up.

 

Like the .01 percent?

 

No, that is how often I would actually like Soriano to attempt a steal of third base with Lee, Ramirez, Barrett and Jones coming up behind him.

 

Someone on second is already in scoring position, why risk the out just to get him more in scoring position? It's not worth it 99% of the time.

 

How about that one?

Edited February 19, 2007 by CuseCubFan69

[CubColtPacer]

Can somebody help me out? My brain is very tired, and for some reason I can't get the numbers to work right now. Can you calculate the percentage that the team would need when trying to execute a double steal with 0 and 1 outs? Here is the relevant data:

 

0 outs

1st and 2nd: 1.573

2nd and 3rd: 2.052

2nd (1 out): .725

 

1 outs

1st and 2nd: .971

2nd and 3rd: 1.467

2nd (2 outs): .344

 

Thanks for any help you can give.

[CubColtPacer]

 

So you would completely abandon stealing third? What you've shown is a flat rate and the stats reflect all players that have attempted to steal third.

 

Let me ask you this. How often does a player hit a home run per at bat? Is it less than 9% and if it is shouldn't he forgo that and just try to hit a single which increases his chances to get on base?

 

That's specious reasoning. An AB can have multiple outcomes that result in a runner reaching without an out. A stolen base attempt has 2 outcomes. Soriano had a 68% success rate stealing last season. He had 3 net SB's. That's bad.

 

It is a bad idea, with few exceptions, to take a runner at 2nd and have him try and steal 3rd.

 

That's my point soccer, the few exceptions and I have never said all the time. You pick your spots and the post BbB just made gives me more confidence that Lou will do just that.

 

What point did I make? I haven't made a single post in this thread until now.

 

I think he was talking about my post-I'm honored to be mistaken for you :D

[imb]

Let me ask you this. How often does a player hit a home run per at bat? Is it less than 9% and if it is shouldn't he forgo that and just try to hit a single which increases his chances to get on base?

 

You know, there is a difference between an actual study done with real numbers, and then something like this, that you just got flustered and made up.

 

Like the .01 percent?

 

No, that is how often I would actually like Soriano to attempt a steal of third base with Lee, Ramirez, Barrett and Jones coming up behind him.

 

Someone on second is already in scoring position, why risk the out just to get him more in scoring position? It's not worth it 99% of the time.

 

How about that one?

 

Do I really need to preface posts like that with a "just my opinion"? 99%, 92%, whatever.

[BigbadB]

I think he was talking about my post-I'm honored to be mistaken for you :D

 

Likewise. :D

Edited February 19, 2007 by BigbadB

[CuseCubFan69]

 

So you would completely abandon stealing third? What you've shown is a flat rate and the stats reflect all players that have attempted to steal third.

 

Let me ask you this. How often does a player hit a home run per at bat? Is it less than 9% and if it is shouldn't he forgo that and just try to hit a single which increases his chances to get on base?

 

That's specious reasoning. An AB can have multiple outcomes that result in a runner reaching without an out. A stolen base attempt has 2 outcomes. Soriano had a 68% success rate stealing last season. He had 3 net SB's. That's bad.

 

It is a bad idea, with few exceptions, to take a runner at 2nd and have him try and steal 3rd.

 

That's my point soccer, the few exceptions and I have never said all the time. You pick your spots and the post BbB just made gives me more confidence that Lou will do just that.

 

What point did I make? I haven't made a single post in this thread until now.

 

I read the other thread about Lou and his steal efficiency that you wrote and put it here instead.

[CuseCubFan69]

Let me ask you this. How often does a player hit a home run per at bat? Is it less than 9% and if it is shouldn't he forgo that and just try to hit a single which increases his chances to get on base?

 

You know, there is a difference between an actual study done with real numbers, and then something like this, that you just got flustered and made up.

 

Like the .01 percent?

 

No, that is how often I would actually like Soriano to attempt a steal of third base with Lee, Ramirez, Barrett and Jones coming up behind him.

 

Someone on second is already in scoring position, why risk the out just to get him more in scoring position? It's not worth it 99% of the time.

 

How about that one?

 

Do I really need to preface posts like that with a "just my opinion"? 99%, 92%, whatever.

 

But I suppose I had to?

[BigbadB]

I don't think I ever commented on Lou's steal efficiency in any thread. I certainly don't recall commenting on Lou's steal efficiency.

[CuseCubFan69]

I think he was talking about my post-I'm honored to be mistaken for you :D

 

Likewise. :D

 

Opps! Yes I was!

[SouthSideRyan]

Ok, obviously stealing 3rd with 2 outs is silly-let's throw that completely out of the discussion.

 

With that said, the rates show that stealing 3rd can have a lower break-even rate than stealing 2nd-so the original post who said that stealing 3rd was silly (and didn't mention stealing 2nd, which meant that he thought that stealing 2nd was better than stealing 3rd) has been disproven.

 

 

That was the point I was attempting to make.

[Sarcastic]

Can somebody help me out? My brain is very tired, and for some reason I can't get the numbers to work right now. Can you calculate the percentage that the team would need when trying to execute a double steal with 0 and 1 outs? Here is the relevant data:

 

0 outs

1st and 2nd: 1.573

2nd and 3rd: 2.052

2nd (1 out): .725

 

1 outs

1st and 2nd: .971

2nd and 3rd: 1.467

2nd (2 outs): .344

 

Thanks for any help you can give.

 

Assuming I did the math right, the numbers are accurate, and the number of double plays on double steals is insignificant, the break even points come out to 53.3% for double steals with no outs, and 79.1% for double steals with one out.

[CubColtPacer]

Can somebody help me out? My brain is very tired, and for some reason I can't get the numbers to work right now. Can you calculate the percentage that the team would need when trying to execute a double steal with 0 and 1 outs? Here is the relevant data:

 

0 outs

1st and 2nd: 1.573

2nd and 3rd: 2.052

2nd (1 out): .725

 

1 outs

1st and 2nd: .971

2nd and 3rd: 1.467

2nd (2 outs): .344

 

Thanks for any help you can give.

 

Assuming I did the math right, the numbers are accurate, and the number of double plays on double steals is insignificant, the break even points come out to 53.3% for double steals with no outs, and 79.1% for double steals with one out.

 

Thanks-so if that's correct, double steals with nobody out can be an effective weapon if you have a very good baserunner stealing 3rd and at least a decent basestealer stealing 2nd (making the catcher throw it to 3rd rather than 2nd)

[Rob]

While I blast Soriano as much as anybody... he did go 30 for 32 on the basepaths two years ago. Depending on which version of Soriano shows up on the bases, it might not be a huge deal for him to be running that often.

[USSoccer]

While I blast Soriano as much as anybody... he did go 30 for 32 on the basepaths two years ago. Depending on which version of Soriano shows up on the bases, it might not be a huge deal for him to be running that often.

 

Looking at his career net numbers 2004 seems to be an extreme anomaly.

[USSoccer]

Can somebody help me out? My brain is very tired, and for some reason I can't get the numbers to work right now. Can you calculate the percentage that the team would need when trying to execute a double steal with 0 and 1 outs? Here is the relevant data:

 

0 outs

1st and 2nd: 1.573

2nd and 3rd: 2.052

2nd (1 out): .725

 

1 outs

1st and 2nd: .971

2nd and 3rd: 1.467

2nd (2 outs): .344

 

Thanks for any help you can give.

 

Assuming I did the math right, the numbers are accurate, and the number of double plays on double steals is insignificant, the break even points come out to 53.3% for double steals with no outs, and 79.1% for double steals with one out.

 

Thanks-so if that's correct, double steals with nobody out can be an effective weapon if you have a very good baserunner stealing 3rd and at least a decent basestealer stealing 2nd (making the catcher throw it to 3rd rather than 2nd)

 

So who's the very good basestealer on the roster?

[BigbadB]

So who's the very good basestealer on the roster?

 

Ryan Theriot, Jacque Jones and Cliff Floyd